First Watch Restaurant Group (FWRG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $923.29M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.23M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 248.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.81
• Revenue Growth: 14.53%
• EPS Growth: -83.26%
• Country: US
• Employees: 15,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Restaurants
• EPS (TTM): 0.03
• Shares Outstanding: 61,023,970
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,306,884
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,228,533
• PEG Ratio: -2.13
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.89
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.11
• P/FCF Ratio: -91.51
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.11
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.76
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.16
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 24.62
• 1Y Price Target: $21.65
• Price Target Upside: 23.57% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10

• Rating: 61 Neutral
• Price Target: $18.50 ▲(5.59% Upside)

First Watch Restaurant Group's overall score is driven by strong earnings call performance and strategic growth initiatives. However, high valuation and financial performance concerns, including profitability and leverage, weigh down the score.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Strong revenue growth indicates successful expansion and market penetration, enhancing the company's competitive position in the daytime dining segment.

Successful Expansion

The expansion through new openings and acquisitions strengthens First Watch's market presence and supports long-term growth potential.

Improved EBITDA Outlook

An improved EBITDA outlook reflects better cost management and operational efficiency, enhancing profitability prospects.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

High leverage can limit financial flexibility and increase risk, potentially impacting the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities.

Low Profitability Margins

Low profitability margins suggest challenges in cost management and pricing power, which could hinder long-term financial performance.

Negative Free Cash Flow

Negative free cash flow indicates difficulties in generating cash after capital expenditures, which may constrain future investments and growth.

First Watch Restaurant Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. operates and franchises restaurants under the First Watch trade name. As of March 23, 2022, it operated 341 company-owned restaurants and 94 franchised restaurants in 28 states in the United States. The company was formerly known as AI Fresh Super Holdco, Inc. and changed its name to First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. in December 2019. First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Bradenton, Florida.

How the Company Makes Money

First Watch Restaurant Group generates revenue primarily through the sale of food and beverages at its company-owned and franchised restaurants. The company capitalizes on its unique operating hours, focusing on daytime dining, which reduces labor and operational costs. Additionally, First Watch benefits from its strong brand presence and customer loyalty, which drive consistent traffic to its locations. The company also engages in strategic partnerships and marketing initiatives to enhance its brand visibility and attract new customers.

First Watch Restaurant Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

First Watch Restaurant Group is experiencing revenue growth, but profitability and cash flow generation are areas of concern. High leverage poses financial risks, and the company needs to improve its margins and cash flow to strengthen its financial position.

Income Statement

First Watch Restaurant Group has shown consistent revenue growth, with a TTM revenue growth rate of 4.67%. However, profitability margins are relatively low, with a net profit margin of 0.49% and an EBIT margin of 1.23% in the TTM. The gross profit margin has decreased significantly from previous years, indicating potential cost pressures. Overall, while revenue is growing, profitability remains a concern.

Balance Sheet

The company has a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.59 in the TTM, indicating significant leverage. Return on equity is low at 0.91%, reflecting challenges in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio stands at 35.88%, suggesting moderate financial stability but potential risks due to high leverage.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow is positive, but free cash flow is negative, with a free cash flow to net income ratio of -0.25 in the TTM. This indicates challenges in generating cash after capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 0.75 suggests that cash generation from operations is not fully translating into net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2020	Dec 2019	Dec 2018
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.11B	1.02B	891.55M	342.39M	436.37M	349.77M
Gross Profit	378.24M	792.81M	190.12M	29.88M	87.41M	71.36M
EBITDA	79.20M	98.38M	85.36M	-4.29M	988.00K	33.83M
Net Income	5.44M	18.93M	25.39M	-49.68M	-45.47M	-12.30M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.68B	1.51B	1.27B	1.01B	982.08M	664.51M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	19.18M	33.31M	49.63M	38.85M	11.12M	16.28M
Total Debt	958.77M	809.55M	606.97M	637.90M	576.44M	195.04M
Total Liabilities	1.07B	918.97M	705.76M	686.65M	652.28M	289.84M
Stockholders Equity	601.31M	595.39M	561.28M	320.87M	329.80M	374.42M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-29.45M	-12.28M	10.81M	-45.34M	-37.70M	-6.95M
Operating Cash Flow	118.35M	115.67M	95.34M	-18.36M	21.46M	30.77M
Investing Cash Flow	-204.15M	-206.65M	-123.37M	-26.97M	-82.39M	-51.90M
Financing Cash Flow	59.61M	74.33M	28.07M	73.31M	55.76M	30.28M

First Watch Restaurant Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 17.52
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FWRG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 17.52 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.96, above the 50-day MA of 17.20, and below the 200-day MA of 17.73, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.25 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.33 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FWRG.

First Watch Restaurant Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CAKE	68 Neutral	$2.59B	16.03	41.01%	1.98%	4.77%	38.24%
PBPB	68 Neutral	$516.55M	48.05	19.65%	―	-1.72%	-70.31%
BJRI	67 Neutral	$653.55M	26.23	7.12%	―	4.07%	-1.24%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
FWRG	61 Neutral	$923.29M	248.47	0.69%	―	14.53%	-83.26%
CBRL	58 Neutral	$896.98M	19.51	10.29%	2.42%	0.37%	12.99%
VENU	52 Neutral	$537.17M	―	-48.66%	―	―	―

First Watch Restaurant Group Corporate Events

First Watch Completes Share Sale Agreement with Barclays

On August 6, 2025, First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. entered into an underwriting agreement with Barclays Capital Inc. and Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC for the sale of 5,000,000 shares by selling shareholders at $17.70 per share, which closed on August 8, 2025. The company did not sell any shares or receive proceeds from this offering, which was conducted under a prospectus supplement to a registration statement filed with the SEC.

First Watch Reports Q2 Revenue Growth and Expansion

First Watch Restaurant Group reported a 19.1% increase in total revenues for Q2 2025, reaching $307.9 million, and opened 17 new restaurants, marking its 600th location milestone. Despite a decrease in net income and adjusted EBITDA compared to the previous year, the company raised its annual EBITDA guidance, anticipating stronger profitability in the latter half of 2025, supported by positive same-restaurant sales and traffic growth.