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Forward Air
(NASDAQ:FWRD)
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Rating:46Neutral
Price Target:
$15.50
▼(-12.08% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/07/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance: sharp profitability deterioration, ongoing losses, and elevated balance-sheet risk from high leverage and negative equity. Offsetting factors are positive (but still limited) recent operating/free cash flow and mildly improving technical momentum. Valuation remains constrained by loss-making results (negative P/E) and lack of a dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Positive Free Cash Flow
The return to positive operating and free cash flow is a meaningful improvement from 2024, showing that the business is currently converting operations into cash. If sustained, this can support ongoing operations and investment, although the benefit remains constrained by the company’s heavy debt burden.
Negative Factors
Severe Profitability Deterioration
The collapse in margins and continued net losses show that increased revenue is not translating into sustainable earnings. Persistent losses can limit internal funding, weaken resilience, and indicate that execution or cost-structure problems must be resolved before scale becomes economically valuable.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Positive Free Cash Flow
The return to positive operating and free cash flow is a meaningful improvement from 2024, showing that the business is currently converting operations into cash. If sustained, this can support ongoing operations and investment, although the benefit remains constrained by the company’s heavy debt burden.
Read all positive factors
Forward Air (FWRD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$517.19M
Dividend Yield1.48%
Average Volume (3M)452.01K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.26
Revenue Growth-0.11%
EPS Growth-49.73%
CountryUS
Employees6,062
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryIntegrated Freight & Logistics
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-8.92
Shares Outstanding33,780,860
10 Day Avg. Volume344,675
30 Day Avg. Volume452,011
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.08
Price to Book (P/B)6.83
Price to Sales (P/S)0.31
P/FCF Ratio50.71
Enterprise Value/Market Cap4.64
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.95
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.97
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-22.31
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$24.50Price Target Upside38.97% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.81
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.58B
Forward Air Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Forward Air Corporation, including its various subsidiaries, functions as a streamlined transportation and logistics enterprise throughout the United States and Canada, operating with an asset-light model. The company's business is structured into...
How the Company Makes Money
Forward Air makes money by charging customers for transportation and logistics services, with revenue primarily tied to shipment volumes, weight/cubic dimensions, lane distance, service level (expedited/time-definite), and accessorial services. Ke...
Forward Air Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 09, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call balanced meaningful operational and financial improvements (notably a large increase in operating income, stronger cash flow, healthy liquidity, segment margin gains, and strategic plans to sell non-core assets) against several material risks: a potential transition of a large customer (~$250M of 2025 revenue) expected in 2027, a sharp decline in the intermodal segment, and ongoing macro/geopolitical uncertainty that could pressure demand. Management emphasized confidence in service quality, active efforts to retain business, pricing discipline, and a plan to delever through targeted asset sales.Positive Updates
Operating Income Substantial Improvement
Operating income rose to $20 million in Q1 2026 from $5 million a year ago, representing a +300% increase and reflecting improved profitability amid transformation efforts.
Negative Updates
Potential Large Customer Transition (Concentration Risk)
Management disclosed active discussions with one of the company's largest customers whose total 2025 spend with Forward Air was approximately $250 million; majority of any transition is anticipated to start in early 2027 and progress through 2027. Management believes no meaningful impact will occur in 2026, but the potential loss represents material revenue concentration risk.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Operating Income Substantial Improvement
Operating income rose to $20 million in Q1 2026 from $5 million a year ago, representing a +300% increase and reflecting improved profitability amid transformation efforts.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management provided cautious, non‑numeric guidance focused on operational priorities rather than specific FY2026 targets: they expect no meaningful impact to 2026 from an ongoing customer transition (the customer represented roughly $250 million, ~10% of 2025 revenue) with any material shifts likely beginning in early 2027, and are pursuing sales of non‑core assets representing approximately $390–394 million of 2025 revenue (about $230M intermodal and ~ $160M in two smaller Omni businesses) to delever. Q1 results underpinning the outlook included operating income of $20M (vs. $5M LY), consolidated EBITDA $70M (vs. $73M LY) and adjusted EBITDA $70M (vs. $69M LY); segment results were Expedited EBITDA $28M (10.4% margin), OmniLogistics $25M (8.3% margin, up from 7.9%), and Intermodal $5M (10.1% margin, down from $10M and 16.4% LY). Cash flow and liquidity metrics highlighted resilience: net cash from operations $46M (vs. $28M, +$18M, >60%), non‑GAAP operating cash flow $58M (+$12M), ending liquidity $402M (cash $141M and $261M revolver) with a roughly $40M covenant cushion. Management also pointed to improving market signals—spot rates up ~40% since late last year, tender rejections up ~100%, PMIs >50 for four months, and inventory‑to‑sales at or slightly below the 10‑year average—while emphasizing disciplined pricing and cost management.Forward Air Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
24
Negative
Balance Sheet
12
Very Negative
Cash Flow
46
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.52B | 2.50B | 2.47B | 1.37B | 1.68B | 1.39B |
| Gross Profit | 267.85M | 510.94M | 339.65M | 330.15M | 491.67M | 313.95M |
| EBITDA | -107.66M | 186.19M | -916.64M | 145.62M | 290.14M | 181.99M |
| Net Income | -286.19M | -107.80M | -816.97M | 167.35M | 193.19M | 105.86M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.41B | 2.74B | 2.80B | 2.98B | 1.21B | 1.12B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 139.45M | 106.00M | 104.90M | 121.97M | 45.82M | 37.32M |
| Total Debt | 2.11B | 2.16B | 2.15B | 1.95B | 266.78M | 320.07M |
| Total Liabilities | 2.53B | 2.58B | 2.52B | 2.22B | 500.83M | 524.17M |
| Stockholders Equity | -115.43M | 113.34M | 201.73M | 764.26M | 707.24M | 593.65M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 48.22M | 15.27M | -112.46M | 150.66M | 218.36M | 81.15M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 70.84M | 44.38M | -75.40M | 181.39M | 259.09M | 120.26M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -10.65M | -26.91M | -1.61B | 174.84M | -104.46M | -88.31M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -16.04M | -17.53M | -163.83M | 1.55B | -146.12M | -34.89M |
Forward Air Technical Analysis
Positive
17.63
Price Trends
16.42
Negative
15.11
Positive
18.02
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.12
Negative
51.27
Neutral
34.02
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FWRD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 17.63 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.41, above the 50-day MA of 16.42, and below the 200-day MA of 18.02, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.12 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.27 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 34.02 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FWRD.
Forward Air Risk Analysis
Forward Air disclosed 49 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Forward Air reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Forward Air Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | $1.59B | 28.94 | 3.19% | 1.92% | ― | ― | |
64 Neutral | $21.26B | 32.11 | 18.71% | 0.78% | 10.59% | ― | |
64 Neutral | $5.77B | 44.37 | 15.87% | 2.12% | 4.10% | -19.02% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
62 Neutral | $16.27B | 26.54 | 36.01% | 1.79% | -0.09% | 19.50% | |
46 Neutral | $517.19M | -1.77 | -523.45% | 1.48% | -0.11% | -49.73% | |
43 Neutral | $16.38B | 27.90 | 80.04% | ― | ― | ― |
* Industrials Sector Average
FWRD
Forward Air
15.62
-3.34
-17.62%
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FDXF
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.