Freshpet (FRPT) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.63B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.54M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 81.4
• Beta (1Y): 1.11
• Revenue Growth: 19.30%
• EPS Growth: 33.65%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,296
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Packaged Foods
• EPS (TTM): 0.33
• Shares Outstanding: 48,779,873
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,327,382
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,540,256
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.40
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.51
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 8.60
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 43.89
• 1Y Price Target: $65.40
• Price Target Upside: 21.52% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 13

• Rating: 62 Neutral
• Price Target: $59.00 ▲(9.62% Upside)

Freshpet's overall stock score is driven by solid financial performance with growth in revenue and gross profit margin, but hindered by profitability challenges and high valuation. The earnings call provided a balanced view with both positive operational improvements and cautionary guidance adjustments. Technical analysis suggests a neutral trend, while the high P/E ratio indicates potential overvaluation.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Steady revenue growth indicates strong market demand and effective sales strategies, supporting long-term business expansion.

Digital Sales Expansion

Significant growth in digital sales reflects successful adaptation to e-commerce trends, enhancing revenue streams and market reach.

Operational Improvements

Operational efficiencies boost margins, indicating improved cost management and production processes, strengthening profitability.

Negative Factors

Leadership Transition

Leadership changes can create uncertainty and disrupt strategic continuity, potentially impacting long-term financial planning and execution.

Sluggish Dog Food Demand

Weak demand in a key product category could hinder revenue growth and market share, challenging Freshpet's competitive position.

Lowered Sales Guidance

Reduced sales guidance reflects economic pressures and market challenges, potentially affecting future revenue and profitability targets.

Freshpet Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Freshpet, Inc. manufactures and markets natural fresh meals and treats for dogs and cats in the United States, Canada, and Europe. The company sells its products under the Freshpet brand; and Dognation and Dog Joy labels through various classes of retail, including grocery, mass, club, pet specialty, and natural, as well as online. Freshpet, Inc. was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Secaucus, New Jersey.

How the Company Makes Money

Freshpet generates revenue primarily through the sale of its fresh pet food products. The company's revenue model is built around direct sales to retailers, where Freshpet's products are sold in refrigerated sections, often requiring specialized distribution and handling. Key revenue streams include sales from major supermarket chains, pet stores, and e-commerce platforms. Freshpet benefits from strong brand recognition and consumer loyalty, which help drive sales growth. Additionally, the company has entered into strategic partnerships with retailers to enhance product placement and visibility, further contributing to its earnings. Marketing campaigns and promotions aimed at educating pet owners about the benefits of fresh pet food also play a significant role in increasing consumer demand and driving revenue.

Freshpet Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Freshpet demonstrates solid revenue growth and a strong gross profit margin, indicating effective sales and production strategies. However, the company faces challenges with profitability and operational efficiency, as seen in the declining net profit and EBIT margins. The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with moderate leverage, but the low return on equity suggests room for improvement in generating returns for shareholders. Cash flow analysis shows strong free cash flow growth, but the conversion of net income to cash flow remains an area to watch. Overall, Freshpet is on a growth trajectory but needs to focus on improving profitability and cash flow conversion.

Income Statement

Freshpet shows a positive revenue growth rate of 2.9% TTM, indicating a steady increase in sales. The gross profit margin is healthy at 40.8%, reflecting efficient production processes. However, the net profit margin is relatively low at 3.2%, suggesting that operating expenses are high. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have decreased compared to the previous year, indicating potential challenges in managing operational costs.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio is moderate at 0.46, indicating a balanced approach to leveraging. The return on equity is low at 3.2%, suggesting limited profitability from shareholders' investments. The equity ratio is strong, showing that a significant portion of the company's assets is financed by equity, which is a positive sign of financial stability.

Cash Flow

Freshpet's free cash flow has grown significantly by 359.8% TTM, which is a positive indicator of cash generation. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.71, showing that cash flow is not significantly higher than net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.41, indicating that a substantial portion of net income is not converted into free cash flow, which could be a concern for liquidity.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.04B	975.18M	766.89M	595.34M	425.49M	318.79M
Gross Profit	425.82M	395.96M	250.87M	186.03M	162.15M	132.91M
EBITDA	83.45M	133.40M	41.10M	-14.35M	7.15M	19.21M
Net Income	33.68M	46.92M	-33.61M	-55.76M	-27.69M	-3.19M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.65B	1.57B	1.46B	1.13B	784.41M	434.39M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	243.68M	268.63M	296.87M	132.74M	72.79M	67.25M
Total Debt	495.15M	424.09M	425.06M	5.71M	7.09M	8.40M
Total Liabilities	575.84M	519.52M	510.97M	93.81M	64.66M	40.22M
Stockholders Equity	1.07B	1.06B	953.45M	1.03B	719.75M	394.17M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	60.10M	-32.80M	-163.15M	-273.30M	-321.45M	-113.38M
Operating Cash Flow	145.16M	154.29M	75.94M	-43.23M	647.00K	21.19M
Investing Cash Flow	-152.23M	-187.09M	-239.09M	-233.36M	-322.10M	-162.46M
Financing Cash Flow	-948.00K	4.57M	327.29M	336.54M	326.99M	199.04M

Freshpet Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 53.82
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FRPT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 53.82 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 52.65, below the 50-day MA of 53.88, and below the 200-day MA of 81.64, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.26 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.96 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.87 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FRPT.

Freshpet Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CENT	―	$1.88B	14.77	8.70%	―	-4.90%	0.29%
JJSF	―	$1.76B	21.08	8.79%	3.47%	0.50%	-4.46%
NOMD	―	$1.80B	7.98	7.88%	5.62%	0.87%	8.59%
SMPL	―	$1.99B	19.43	5.86%	―	8.98%	-26.29%
Sector *	―	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
FRPT	―	$2.63B	81.37	3.26%	―	19.30%	33.65%
SJM	―	$10.90B	―	-21.32%	4.25%	2.54%	-293.39%

Freshpet Corporate Events

Freshpet CFO Todd Cunfer Resigns, Garcia Steps In

On October 3, 2025, Freshpet, Inc. announced that its Chief Financial Officer, Todd Cunfer, will resign effective October 17, 2025, to pursue another opportunity. Ivan Garcia, currently the Vice President of Finance, will step in as interim CFO, bringing extensive experience within the company. The board has approved a salary increase and additional incentives for Garcia as he assumes his new role, highlighting the company’s confidence in his capabilities to maintain financial stability during this transition.

The most recent analyst rating on (FRPT) stock is a Buy with a $80.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Freshpet stock, see the FRPT Stock Forecast page.

Freshpet Inc. Faces Unforeseen Risks: Stakeholders Urged to Stay Alert

Freshpet Inc. faces potential risks and uncertainties that could significantly impact its business operations, financial health, and overall performance. Although the company has not identified any new material changes to previously reported risk factors, unforeseen challenges or currently underestimated issues might arise. These could lead to adverse effects on their market position and financial outcomes. Stakeholders should remain vigilant as these unknown risks could alter the company’s future prospects.

Freshpet Inc. Earnings Call: Operational Success Amid Sales Challenges

Freshpet Inc. recently held its earnings call, revealing a mixed sentiment among its leadership. While the company reported strong operational improvements and cost efficiencies that bolstered positive EBITDA growth, it faced challenges in sales growth, particularly in the dog food category. This led to a cautious outlook, with the company lowering its sales guidance and removing long-term sales targets.

Freshpet Inc. Reports Strong Q2 2025 Performance

Freshpet Inc., a company specializing in fresh, refrigerated pet food, operates in the pet food industry and is known for its commitment to using natural ingredients and maintaining high standards of quality in its products.

Freshpet Reports Strong Q2 2025 Financial Results

On August 4, 2025, Freshpet reported its financial results for the second quarter of 2025, showing a significant increase in net sales and net income compared to the previous year. Despite economic challenges, the company achieved a 12.5% increase in net sales and a net income of $16.4 million, driven by volume gains and improved operational efficiencies. Freshpet has updated its 2025 outlook, reducing its net sales target to reflect current economic conditions but maintaining its commitment to growth and shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (FRPT) stock is a Buy with a $157.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Freshpet stock, see the FRPT Stock Forecast page.

Freshpet Inc. Faces Unspecified Business Risk: What Stakeholders Need to Know

Freshpet Inc. faces a business risk that is outlined in the section titled ‘Part II. Other Information.’ This risk could potentially impact the company’s operations, financial condition, or market position. The specifics of the risk are not detailed in the provided description, but it is crucial for stakeholders to consider such factors when evaluating the company’s future prospects. Understanding and mitigating these risks is essential for maintaining investor confidence and ensuring long-term growth.