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Freshpet
(NASDAQ:FRPT)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$55.00
▼(-20.86% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/12/26
Overall score is driven primarily by the improved fundamentals (profitability and sharply better free cash flow) and a supportive P/E valuation, partially offset by weak technicals (below key moving averages with negative MACD) and earnings-call risks tied to elevated logistics/SG&A costs and execution uncertainty despite raised sales guidance.
Positive Factors
Improved cash generation
Sustained positive free cash flow materially strengthens funding for capacity expansion, R&D and fridge rollouts without heavy reliance on external financing. Over 2–6 months this reduces refinancing risk, supports planned capex (~$150M) and gives management flexibility to invest or return capital.
Negative Factors
Elevated SG&A & logistics
Persistent high SG&A and rising logistics costs can structurally compress margins and slow free cash flow conversion if sustained. Given Freshpet’s refrigerated model and media intensity, these cost lines may remain elevated and make hitting multi‑year margin targets more challenging.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improved cash generation
Sustained positive free cash flow materially strengthens funding for capacity expansion, R&D and fridge rollouts without heavy reliance on external financing. Over 2–6 months this reduces refinancing risk, supports planned capex (~$150M) and gives management flexibility to invest or return capital.
Read all positive factors
Freshpet Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Net Sales by Retailer
Shows how much revenue comes from each retailer and how concentrated sales are among a few chains. High concentration in one or two retailers increases risk if stocking, pricing, or promotional support changes, while diversified retail distribution supports steadier growth and better negotiating power. Also reveals whether revenue gains are driven by new store listings, higher sales per store, or discounting, giving insight into the durability of Freshpet’s growth and margins.
Shows how much revenue comes from each retailer and how concentrated sales are among a few chains. High concentration in one or two retailers increases risk if stocking, pricing, or promotional support changes, while diversified retail distribution supports steadier growth and better negotiating power. Also reveals whether revenue gains are driven by new store listings, higher sales per store, or discounting, giving insight into the durability of Freshpet’s growth and margins.
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The Fly
The FlyFreshpet (FRPT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.82B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.71M
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.8
Beta (1Y)1.12
Revenue Growth12.01%
EPS Growth1171.89%
CountryUS
Employees1,296
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryPackaged Foods
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.10
Shares Outstanding49,142,790
10 Day Avg. Volume1,333,520
30 Day Avg. Volume1,709,622
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.11
Price to Book (P/B)2.46
Price to Sales (P/S)2.70
P/FCF Ratio240.23
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.51
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.44
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.25
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$77.70Price Target Upside11.80% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)1.74
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.21B
Freshpet Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Freshpet, Inc. produces and distributes natural, fresh, and ready-to-eat food and treats specifically formulated for dogs and cats. These products are available to consumers throughout the United States, Canada, and Europe. The company offers its ...
How the Company Makes Money
Freshpet makes money primarily by selling refrigerated pet food and treats to retailers and other customers (with revenue recognized from product sales). Its core revenue stream is branded product sales (Freshpet-branded fresh, refrigerated dog an...
Freshpet Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a constructive operating picture: strong top-line growth, expanding household penetration, digital/omnichannel momentum, improving adjusted gross margin and progress on proprietary manufacturing technology. These positives are tempered by elevated SG&A intensity, logistics and fuel cost headwinds, unfavorable price/mix in the quarter, and macro/retailer-related execution risks. Management raised 2026 sales guidance, reiterated adjusted EBITDA guidance, and set ambitious 2027 margin targets, while signaling prudence on capital deployment and the timing of larger technology investments.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line Growth
Net sales of $297.6 million in Q1, up 13.1% year-over-year; volume contributed ~14.6% growth while price/mix was unfavorable ~1.5%.
Negative Updates
SG&A Pressure and Increased Operating Costs
Adjusted SG&A was 34.2% of net sales in Q1 vs 32.2% prior year (+200 basis points), driven by higher variable compensation, timing of media spend and increased logistics costs; media was 15.8% of sales (vs 15.1% prior).
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line Growth
Net sales of $297.6 million in Q1, up 13.1% year-over-year; volume contributed ~14.6% growth while price/mix was unfavorable ~1.5%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Freshpet raised 2026 net sales guidance to +8% to +11% (from +7% to +10%) while reiterating adjusted EBITDA of $205M–$215M (implying ~5%–10% YoY growth), and said it expects to be free cash flow positive in 2026 with capital expenditures of roughly $150M (Q1 CapEx $27.6M). Management forecast adjusted gross margin to improve ~50–100 basis points at the midpoint of the sales range (Q1 adjusted gross margin was 46.9%, +120 bps YoY) and reiterated that adjusted EBITDA dollars and margin should improve sequentially for the remainder of the year (Q1 adjusted EBITDA $37.9M, 12.7% margin). They expect media spend ~12.5% of sales for the year, front‑half weighted (Q1 media was 15.8%), flagged elevated logistics costs for the remainder of 2026 after Q1 logistics of 6.3% of sales (vs 5.8% a year ago), and noted operational actions (35% of bag capacity to use new technology by year‑end, potential incremental capex above $150M if accelerating additional lines). Management also reiterated 2027 targets: net sales growth well in excess of U.S. dog food category growth, at least 48% adjusted gross margin and 20%–22% adjusted EBITDA margin, while warning of easier comps through May and a tougher comp in Q3.Freshpet Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.14B | 1.10B | 975.18M | 766.89M | 595.34M | 425.49M |
| Gross Profit | 442.09M | 425.20M | 395.96M | 250.87M | 186.03M | 162.15M |
| EBITDA | 253.26M | 171.76M | 133.40M | 41.10M | -15.72M | 5.82M |
| Net Income | 200.34M | 139.14M | 46.92M | -33.61M | -59.49M | -29.70M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.84B | 1.78B | 1.57B | 1.46B | 1.13B | 784.41M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 381.38M | 277.98M | 268.63M | 296.87M | 132.74M | 72.79M |
| Total Debt | 494.04M | 560.01M | 424.09M | 425.06M | 5.71M | 7.09M |
| Total Liabilities | 577.12M | 569.12M | 519.52M | 510.97M | 93.81M | 64.66M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.26B | 1.21B | 1.06B | 953.45M | 1.03B | 719.75M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 194.97M | 12.38M | -32.80M | -163.15M | -273.30M | -321.45M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 196.08M | 160.56M | 154.29M | 75.94M | -43.23M | 647.00K |
| Investing Cash Flow | -53.83M | -148.18M | -187.09M | -239.09M | -233.36M | -322.10M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -4.60M | -3.04M | 4.57M | 327.29M | 336.54M | 326.99M |
Freshpet Technical Analysis
Positive
69.50
Price Trends
55.69
Positive
63.18
Negative
60.63
Negative
Market Momentum
0.15
Negative
59.17
Neutral
56.94
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FRPT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 69.5 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 52.40, above the 50-day MA of 55.69, and above the 200-day MA of 60.63, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.15 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.17 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.94 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FRPT.
Freshpet Risk Analysis
Freshpet disclosed 36 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Freshpet reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Freshpet Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $1.42B | 24.69 | 6.24% | 3.53% | -2.04% | -23.39% | |
68 Neutral | $2.82B | 14.79 | 16.98% | ― | 12.01% | 1171.89% | |
66 Neutral | $2.52B | 16.10 | 10.72% | ― | 0.22% | 46.14% | |
65 Neutral | $1.55B | 10.95 | 5.28% | 5.40% | 4.84% | -31.84% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
62 Neutral | $11.82B | ― | -2.44% | 4.45% | 3.72% | 88.76% | |
59 Neutral | $1.18B | -11.14 | -6.15% | ― | 0.34% | -182.07% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
FRPT
Freshpet
60.64
-7.32
-10.77%
CENT
Central Garden Pet
44.60
9.42
26.78%
JJSF
J & J Snack Foods
73.94
-35.42
-32.39%
SJM
JM Smucker
115.89
21.63
22.95%
SMPL
Simply Good Foods
13.14
-18.45
-58.40%
NOMD
Nomad Foods
11.20
-4.87
-30.28%
Freshpet Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Freshpet Shareholders Back Board, Auditor and Executive Pay
Positive
Jun 11, 2026
At its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders held on June 10, 2026, Freshpet stockholders elected all 12 director nominees to the board, with each candidate receiving strong majority support despite some variation in opposition and abstentions. The ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Freshpet Delivers Strong Q1 Results and Raises Outlook
Positive
May 6, 2026
Freshpet reported strong first quarter 2026 results on May 6, 2026, with net sales rising 13.1% year over year to $297.6 million, driven mainly by volume gains, and gross margin improving to 40.5% on lower input costs and better plant leverage. Th...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.