Expand Energy AI Stock Analysis
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Expand Energy (EXE) AI Stock Analysis
Expand Energy
(NASDAQ:EXE)
EXE scores well on financial recovery and generally sound balance-sheet/cash-flow quality, supported by a constructive earnings call outlining meaningful commercial EBITDA upside. Valuation is a notable positive with a low P/E and a solid dividend yield. The main offset is mixed technical positioning, with the stock still below longer-term moving averages and sector-linked cyclicality showing up in variable results and softer TTM free-cash-flow momentum.
Expand Energy Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Revenue by GeographyBreaks down revenue across countries and regions to show where Expand Energy is strongest and where it is most exposed to local economic, regulatory, or currency risks. Highlights concentration risk, identifies markets with the most growth potential, and helps assess how geopolitical or policy changes could impact future sales.
Revenue mix shifted dramatically after 2023: early multi-basin contributions (Marcellus, Eagle Ford, Gulf/South Texas) roll off while Haynesville and newly visible Northeast/Southwest Appalachia dominate from 2024‑Q4 onward, and the recurring “Marketing” line remains a large, volatile revenue source. That pattern looks like a portfolio re‑tilt—asset sales, reclassifications or concentrated drilling in Haynesville/Appalachia—raising upside if execution and gas prices hold, but increasing geographic concentration and commodity exposure to monitor closely.
The FlyExpand Energy (EXE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Market Cap
- $20.31B
- Dividend Yield
- 2.60%
- Average Volume (3M)
- 3.14M
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 7.6
- Beta (1Y)
- 0.05
- Revenue Growth
- 19.65%
- EPS Growth
- 223.67%
- Country
- US
- Employees
- 1,600
- Sector
- Energy
- Sector Strength
- 65
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Expand Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Expand Energy Corporation functions as an independent entity primarily focused on the discovery and extraction of energy resources throughout the United States. Its core operations involve the acquisition, exploration, and subsequent development of p...
Expand Energy Earnings Call Summary
The call was strongly constructive. Management highlighted the transformation into an integrated gas company, Twin Eagle integration, substantial commercial earnings opportunities, strong hedging and balance-sheet metrics, operational improvements, and expected structural demand growth. The principal challenges were near-term oversupply and price pressure, reduced drilling activity, inflationary costs, required deleveraging, and the high cost and uncertain timing of West Haynesville development. Overall, the breadth and significance of the stated operational and commercial positives outweighed the identified challenges.
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
Expand guided to $80 million of EBITDA in Q4 for its combined Marketing and Commercial business, translating to about 12¢/Mcf, with a good line of sight to $500 million by 2028, or about $0.20/Mcf, and ultimately $750 million of additional EBITDA, or about 30¢/Mcf on current production; this would reduce cash breakeven to $2.50 to $2.60, with $2.60 at the intermediate stop in 2028 and $2.50 at the $750 million run rate. Q4 production is guided to 7.4 Bcf to 7.6 Bcf a day, while 2027 activity will remain flexible, including approximately 13 Bcf a day of new incremental demand by year end 2028; 2027 inflation could be a low to mid single digit inflationary factor, diesel usage is expected to decline about 50%, and Western Haynesville is expected to require >$4 gas to compete, with probably 2 wells drilled there in 2027. The company is 55% hedged for all of 2027 at a $3.65 kind of price on average, expects about a 2% to 3% improvement in well productivity year over year, and expects Haynesville to grow by somewhere around 5 Bcf a day over the next 4 to 6 years or so.
Expand Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financials show a clear recovery with strong TTM profitability and healthy operating cash flow that exceeds net income (good earnings quality). Balance sheet leverage is manageable (debt-to-equity ~0.24), but results and free cash flow have been volatile across cycles and TTM free cash flow softened versus the prior annual period.
Income Statement
78PositiveBalance Sheet
74PositiveCash Flow
70Positive| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 13.69B | 11.65B | 4.22B | 7.78B | 11.44B | 7.30B |
| Gross Profit | 8.69B | 5.42B | 1.14B | 5.04B | 8.16B | 2.42B |
| EBITDA | 6.55B | 5.50B | 1.02B | 4.76B | 5.56B | 7.30B |
| Net Income | 2.75B | 1.82B | -714.00M | 2.42B | 4.94B | 6.33B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 29.74B | 28.29B | 27.89B | 14.38B | 15.47B | 11.01B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 118.00M | 960.00M | 317.00M | 1.08B | 130.00M | 905.00M |
| Total Debt | 4.63B | 5.06B | 5.83B | 2.13B | 3.21B | 2.32B |
| Total Liabilities | 10.24B | 9.71B | 10.33B | 3.65B | 6.34B | 5.34B |
| Stockholders Equity | 19.50B | 18.58B | 17.57B | 10.73B | 9.12B | 5.67B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.46B | 1.84B | 8.00M | 551.00M | 2.30B | 1.05B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 5.62B | 4.58B | 1.56B | 2.38B | 4.13B | 1.79B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.27B | -2.76B | -1.90B | 473.00M | -3.40B | -916.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.82B | -1.51B | -419.00M | -1.89B | -1.45B | -237.00M |
Expand Energy Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EXE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 88.63 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 90.58, below the 50-day MA of 90.60, and below the 200-day MA of 95.41, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.09 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.74 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.07 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for EXE.
Expand Energy Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
PR80Outperform
APA76Outperform
OVV74Outperform- EXE73Outperform
MTDR73Outperform
SM60Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PR | 80Outperform | $18.22B | 11.37 | 13.90% | 2.82% | 22.75% | 68.74% |
| APA | 76Outperform | $15.15B | 7.58 | 32.44% | 2.14% | -1.88% | 48.36% |
| OVV | 74Outperform | $16.55B | 12.80 | 11.52% | 1.89% | 14.06% | 444.94% |
| EXE | 73Outperform | $20.31B | 7.63 | 14.29% | 2.60% | 19.65% | 223.67% |
| MTDR | 73Outperform | $6.23B | 8.98 | 12.39% | 3.00% | 12.81% | -7.42% |
| Sector * | 65Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% |
| SM | 60Neutral | $6.94B | 7.53 | 13.76% | 2.76% | 99.74% | -34.82% |
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXE | Expand Energy Corporation | 88.63 | -27.29 | -23.54% | |
| APA | APA Corp. | 46.74 | 22.74 | 94.73% | |
| OVV | Ovintiv Inc. | 63.47 | 25.53 | 67.31% | |
| MTDR | Matador Resources | 52.08 | 12.52 | 31.64% | |
| SM | SM Energy Company | 31.16 | 13.29 | 74.36% | |
| PR | Permian Resources Corporation | 22.32 | 9.46 | 73.53% |
Expand Energy Corporate Events
Expand Energy posts strong Q3 results and outlook
PositiveExpand Energy Corporation reported strong third quarter 2026 results on October 27, 2026, highlighted by net income of $519 million, adjusted EBITDAX of $1.229 billion and net operating cash flow of $1.177 billion driven by robust natural gas and liq...
Expand Energy Appoints Danny Brown as New CEO
PositiveOn October 19, 2026, Expand Energy’s board appointed veteran energy executive Daniel E. “Danny” Brown as president, chief executive officer and director, effective October 26, following a comprehensive search that considered internal and external can...
Expand Energy Promotes Sarah Grose to Key Accounting Role
PositiveOn October 8, 2026, Expand Energy Corporation appointed Sarah Grose as Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer, and she immediately assumed the role of principal accounting officer, succeeding Chief Financial Officer Marcel Teunissen, who had bee...
Expand Energy Extends Credit Facility Maturity to 2031
PositiveOn October 6, 2026, Expand Energy Corporation amended its Amended and Restated Credit Agreement originally dated September 30, 2025, with a lender group led by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. The key change extends the maturity date of the company’s credit...
Expand Energy Completes $500 Million Senior Notes Offering
PositiveOn September 17, 2026, Expand Energy Corporation completed an underwritten public offering of $500 million aggregate principal amount of 5.650% Senior Notes due 2031, issued as senior unsecured obligations under an existing shelf registration. The no...
Expand Energy Completes Twin Eagle Acquisition, Refocuses on LNG
PositiveOn September 16, 2026, Expand Energy Corporation completed its acquisition of Twin Eagle Holdings N.A., LLC, strengthening its position in gas marketing and commercial energy services. Following the closing, Dan Turco transitioned from Executive Vice...
Expand Energy Announces $500 Million Senior Notes Offering
PositiveOn September 15, 2026, Expand Energy Corporation entered into an underwriting agreement with Citigroup Global Markets Inc. and J.P. Morgan Securities LLC for an underwritten public offering of $500 million of 5.650% senior notes due 2031, priced at 9...
Expand Energy Announces Major Twin Eagle Acquisition Agreement
PositiveOn July 24, 2026, Expand Energy Corporation entered into a Merger Agreement to acquire Twin Eagle N.A., LLC, an independent asset-backed natural gas marketing and optimization business, through a merger of its subsidiary Eikon AW Holdings, LLC with T...
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Oct 29, 2026