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APA
(NASDAQ:APA)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$45.00
▲(25.91% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (strong margins, cash-backed earnings, and improved leverage) and supportive earnings-call guidance centered on free cash flow and cost/interest reductions. Valuation is attractive (low P/E with a moderate yield), but the overall score is held back by weak near-term technical momentum and recent softness in revenue and free-cash-flow trend.
Positive Factors
Free Cash Flow Generation
Consistent and guided free cash flow (~$477M Q1; ~$2.2B FY2026) provides durable funding for debt reduction, disciplined capex, and shareholder returns. Over 2–6 months this supports the company’s deleveraging path, liquidity for Suriname/Alaska projects, and resilience to commodity swings.
Negative Factors
Revenue and FCF Momentum Softening
Declining top-line and weaker free cash flow momentum reflect commodity sensitivity and higher reinvestment/working-capital needs. If continued, lower revenue and falling FCF will constrain the pace of deleveraging and limit flexibility for growth projects and returns over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Free Cash Flow Generation
Consistent and guided free cash flow (~$477M Q1; ~$2.2B FY2026) provides durable funding for debt reduction, disciplined capex, and shareholder returns. Over 2–6 months this supports the company’s deleveraging path, liquidity for Suriname/Alaska projects, and resilience to commodity swings.
Read all positive factors
APA Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Daily Oil Volume by Geography
Monitors oil production levels in various regions, indicating operational scale, regional strengths, and exposure to geopolitical or market risks.
Monitors oil production levels in various regions, indicating operational scale, regional strengths, and exposure to geopolitical or market risks.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAPA (APA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$11.51B
Dividend Yield3.8%
Average Volume (3M)6.06M
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.6
Beta (1Y)0.47
Revenue Growth-17.38%
EPS Growth54.99%
CountryUS
Employees1,791
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.29
Shares Outstanding353,470,200
10 Day Avg. Volume6,007,625
30 Day Avg. Volume6,056,010
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.08
Price to Book (P/B)1.44
Price to Sales (P/S)0.98
P/FCF Ratio4.94
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.41
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.89
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.50
Enterprise Value/Ebitda2.88
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$41.13Price Target Upside15.07% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering19
EPS Forecast (FY)6.43
Revenue Forecast (FY)$9.37B
APA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
APA Corporation operates in the upstream segment of the oil and natural gas industry, utilizing its various subsidiaries to explore for, develop, and produce hydrocarbon assets. The company maintains significant operational presences in the United...
How the Company Makes Money
APA makes money primarily by producing and selling hydrocarbons—crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs)—from its operated and non-operated upstream assets. Revenue is recognized when these commodities are delivered to purchasers und...
APA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong operational execution, substantial free cash flow generation ($477M in 1Q; ~$2.2B full-year guidance), meaningful trading income (~$1.1B pretax in 2026), disciplined capital allocation, and clear cost-savings progress (targeting $450M run-rate savings and ~$600M run-rate cash cost reduction vs 2024). Offsets included a modest uptick in net debt to $4.1B driven by working capital and incentive payouts, accounting-driven adjusted production reductions in Egypt due to PSC mechanics, short-term U.S. gas curtailments, and some non-core derivative losses. On balance, the positive operational and financial momentum, clear path toward a $3B net debt target, and continued high-margin trading and Suriname growth optionality outweigh the stated near-term headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong quarterly and adjusted earnings
GAAP net income of $446 million ($1.26 diluted EPS) in 1Q26; adjusted net income of $489 million ($1.38 diluted EPS) excluding non-core items including unrealized derivative losses.
Negative Updates
Slight increase in net debt and working capital draw
Net debt increased to ~$4.1 billion at quarter end from $4.0 billion at end of 2025, driven by a large working capital use—primarily higher receivables from a late-quarter oil price spike and the payout of 2025 incentive compensation.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong quarterly and adjusted earnings
GAAP net income of $446 million ($1.26 diluted EPS) in 1Q26; adjusted net income of $489 million ($1.38 diluted EPS) excluding non-core items including unrealized derivative losses.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management’s guidance emphasized strong cash generation and disciplined capital allocation: Q1 GAAP net income was $446 million ($1.26 diluted EPS) and adjusted net income was $489 million ($1.38), with Q1 free cash flow of $477 million (about $88 million returned to shareholders); full-year free cash flow is guided to roughly $2.2 billion. Upstream capital remains unchanged at $2.1 billion (≈55% of spend in H1), exploration spend about $70 million (≈$20M Alaska, $50M Suriname), LOE guidance unchanged at $15.25, and current tax expense is now expected to be ≈$230 million (mostly U.K. at a 78% effective rate). Operational and balance-sheet targets include raising U.S. oil production to 122,000 bpd, achieving $450 million of cumulative run‑rate savings by year‑end 2026 and exiting the year with run‑rate cash costs about $600 million lower versus 2024, growing 2026 marketing/trading pretax cash flow to ~$1.1 billion (with ~+$400M pretax at current strip expected in 2027), ending Q1 net debt of ~$4.1 billion (vs. $4.0B YE2025) after repaying $634 million of near‑term maturities (including $555M in April), targeting a $3.0 billion net‑debt level and expecting interest savings of >$60M Y/Y and ~ $150M lower annual interest on a run‑rate basis by end‑2026; Suriname Grand Magoo remains on track for first oil in mid‑2028.APA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
67
Positive
Cash Flow
71
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 8.61B | 8.92B | 9.74B | 8.28B | 11.07B | 7.99B |
| Gross Profit | 4.64B | 3.33B | 4.30B | 4.23B | 6.25B | 3.54B |
| EBITDA | 5.63B | 5.43B | 4.17B | 4.75B | 7.61B | 3.66B |
| Net Income | 1.53B | 1.43B | 804.00M | 2.85B | 3.67B | 1.14B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 18.08B | 19.00B | 19.39B | 15.24B | 13.15B | 13.30B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 293.00M | 516.00M | 625.00M | 87.00M | 245.00M | 302.00M |
| Total Debt | 4.54B | 4.81B | 6.16B | 5.30B | 5.62B | 7.61B |
| Total Liabilities | 10.68B | 11.99B | 13.03B | 11.55B | 11.80B | 14.02B |
| Stockholders Equity | 6.46B | 6.09B | 5.28B | 2.65B | 423.00M | -1.59B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.49B | 1.78B | 769.00M | 772.00M | 2.54B | 2.39B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.00B | 4.54B | 3.62B | 3.13B | 4.94B | 3.50B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.91B | -2.15B | -924.00M | -2.14B | -1.51B | -833.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.87B | -2.50B | -2.16B | -1.15B | -3.49B | -2.62B |
APA Technical Analysis
Negative
35.74
Price Trends
37.26
Negative
35.59
Negative
29.78
Positive
Market Momentum
-1.24
Positive
36.43
Neutral
16.62
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For APA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 35.74 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 35.77, below the 50-day MA of 37.26, and above the 200-day MA of 29.78, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.24 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.43 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.62 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for APA.
APA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $8.76B | 9.82 | 20.93% | 1.00% | 23.03% | 239.04% | |
71 Outperform | $11.51B | 7.61 | 25.11% | 3.80% | -17.38% | 54.99% | |
69 Neutral | $6.43B | -108.99 | -0.83% | 5.73% | -0.99% | -107.05% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
63 Neutral | $4.67B | 55.39 | 1.64% | 4.15% | -5.06% | -77.54% | |
62 Neutral | $6.18B | 12.88 | 8.74% | 3.14% | -2.91% | -47.92% | |
60 Neutral | $4.38B | 6.96 | 26.11% | ― | 44.84% | ― |
* Energy Sector Average
APA
APA
32.57
14.39
79.13%
CRK
Comstock Resources
14.92
-10.34
-40.93%
MTDR
Matador Resources
49.78
1.77
3.68%
MUR
Murphy Oil
32.56
9.80
43.04%
RRC
Range Resources
37.19
-1.38
-3.58%
CHRD
Chord Energy
114.30
18.01
18.70%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.