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Murphy Oil
(NYSE:MUR)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$39.00
▲(12.65% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/08/26
MUR scores in the low-to-mid 60s primarily due to steady positive operating cash flow, moderate/improving leverage, and supportive shareholder yield. The score is held back by multi-year revenue decline into 2025, volatile free cash flow and some near-term uncertainty from higher capex/appraisal costs and mixed exploration results. Technical signals are broadly neutral, adding limited incremental support.
Positive Factors
Positive operating cash generation
Consistently positive operating cash flow gives Murphy internal funding capacity despite the upstream sector’s cyclicality. Positive free cash flow across the reported periods supports ongoing development, dividends and balance-sheet protection, although its volatility remains important.
Negative Factors
Multi-year revenue contraction
A revenue decline across several consecutive years signals pressure on the company’s top-line scale and reduces visibility into near-term earnings power. For a commodity producer, weaker sales can constrain reinvestment and shareholder distributions when prices or volumes soften.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Positive operating cash generation
Consistently positive operating cash flow gives Murphy internal funding capacity despite the upstream sector’s cyclicality. Positive free cash flow across the reported periods supports ongoing development, dividends and balance-sheet protection, although its volatility remains important.
Read all positive factors
Murphy Oil (MUR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.36B
Dividend Yield3.68%
Average Volume (3M)1.57M
Price to Earnings (P/E)18.2
Beta (1Y)0.05
Revenue Growth7.73%
EPS Growth5.87%
CountryUS
Employees813
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.05
Shares Outstanding143,381,120
10 Day Avg. Volume1,488,614
30 Day Avg. Volume1,574,272
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.59
Price to Book (P/B)0.87
Price to Sales (P/S)1.66
P/FCF Ratio11.28
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda>-0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$39.00Price Target Upside12.65% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)2.98
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.17B
Murphy Oil Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Murphy Oil Corporation, along with its affiliated entities, functions as a company primarily focused on discovering and extracting crude oil and natural gas. Its operational footprint spans across the United States, Canada, and various internation...
How the Company Makes Money
Murphy Oil primarily makes money by producing and selling hydrocarbons—crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids—from its operated and non-operated wells. Revenue is largely generated from (1) sales volumes (how much the company produces and...
Murphy Oil Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted meaningful exploration success (Bubale discovery), operational outperformance (production above guidance, Eagle Ford strength, Tupper Montney), strong balance sheet metrics (free cash flow, liquidity, leverage <1x) and clear plans to fund organic growth. Those positives were tempered by a dry hole and resource downwards revision at Hai Su Vang, higher-than-expected appraisal well costs at Bubale, and uncertainty around elevated near-term capital needs and 2027 spend that will depend on appraisal results. Overall the company presents multiple growth pathways while emphasizing disciplined, staged appraisal and balance sheet protection.Positive Updates
Bubale Discovery in Côte d'Ivoire
Discovery well encountered oil in both the Turonian and Cenomanian reservoirs; appraisal program under way with Bubale West-1X spud in July as first of up to 5 potential appraisal wells; company allocated roughly $190 million to Bubale in the revised 2026 program (≈$100M incremental discovery spend + $90M first appraisal well).
Negative Updates
Hai Su Vang (HSV) Appraisal Result and Resource Revision
HSV-4X was a dry hole and new data led to a reduced resource estimate; management acknowledged the result was disappointing and that reservoir thickness/quality was more limited than previously expected, tightening the field resource range (though company still characterizes the remaining opportunity as ~200–300 million boe).
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Bubale Discovery in Côte d'Ivoire
Discovery well encountered oil in both the Turonian and Cenomanian reservoirs; appraisal program under way with Bubale West-1X spud in July as first of up to 5 potential appraisal wells; company allocated roughly $190 million to Bubale in the revised 2026 program (≈$100M incremental discovery spend + $90M first appraisal well).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance highlights: Murphy raised the midpoint of 2026 capex to $1.55 billion (from $1.25B) to fund organic growth—including roughly $190 million for Bubale (about $100M incremental on the discovery well and ~$90M for the Bubale West‑1X appraisal), and $70 million accelerated into the Eagle Ford (expected to add ~5,000–6,000 boe/d in 2027). Q2 production averaged 169,000 boe/d (above guidance midpoint); the quarter generated $110 million of free cash flow, returned $50 million via dividends, maintained leverage below 1x and ended with ≈$2.5 billion of liquidity, and Murphy still expects positive full‑year free cash flow at current prices despite the higher spend. Key project and timing metrics: Bubale appraisal is a staged, data‑driven 18–24 month program of up to five wells (Bubale West‑1X spud in July; dry‑hole cost estimate revised from $65M to ~$90M, potentially higher if formation evaluation is required); Hai Su Vang’s resource was revised to ~200–300 million boe (≈2–3× Lac Da Vang) with Vietnam peak production outlook unchanged at 30,000–50,000 boe/d (likely nearer the low end today); Lac Da Vang is on schedule for first oil in Q4 with net 2027 exit ~5,000–9,000 bbl/d ramping to 10,000–15,000 bbl/d in 2028–29; Chinook #8 (26,000 ft TD) remains on track for Q4 start.Murphy Oil Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
54
Neutral
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.02B | 2.69B | 3.02B | 3.45B | 4.22B | 2.80B |
| Gross Profit | 2.49B | 577.76M | 1.00B | 2.62B | 2.38B | 1.28B |
| EBITDA | -27.39B | 1.33B | 1.54B | 1.95B | 2.38B | 1.06B |
| Net Income | 294.05M | 104.20M | 407.17M | 661.56M | 965.05M | -73.66M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 10.28B | 9.83B | 9.67B | 9.77B | 10.31B | 10.30B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 483.88M | 377.00M | 423.57M | 317.07M | 491.96M | 521.18M |
| Total Debt | 2.26B | 2.20B | 2.07B | 2.09B | 2.79B | 3.37B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.87B | 4.60B | 4.33B | 4.22B | 5.16B | 5.98B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.26B | 5.12B | 5.19B | 5.36B | 4.99B | 4.16B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 329.79M | 396.40M | 820.83M | 647.16M | 1.05B | 733.95M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.57B | 1.25B | 1.73B | 1.75B | 2.17B | 1.42B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.24B | -1.03B | -908.16M | -998.68M | -1.11B | -417.71M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -222.66M | -264.06M | -716.54M | -923.72M | -1.08B | -794.51M |
Murphy Oil Technical Analysis
Positive
34.62
Price Trends
36.57
Positive
36.71
Positive
35.16
Positive
Market Momentum
0.61
Negative
50.69
Neutral
29.03
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MUR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 34.62 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 37.25, below the 50-day MA of 36.57, and below the 200-day MA of 35.16, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.61 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.69 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.03 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MUR.
Murphy Oil Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $7.03B | 9.74 | 12.76% | 2.64% | 1.84% | -14.76% | |
77 Outperform | $5.97B | 10.95 | 21.10% | 2.62% | 11.35% | 18.91% | |
71 Outperform | $8.79B | 9.55 | 16.53% | 2.33% | 75.39% | -28.23% | |
67 Neutral | $4.59B | 95.01 | 1.12% | 3.45% | 24.25% | ― | |
66 Neutral | $2.84B | -7.27 | -19.26% | ― | 2.44% | -144.04% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
63 Neutral | $5.36B | 18.24 | 5.71% | 3.68% | 7.73% | 5.87% |
* Energy Sector Average
MUR
Murphy Oil
37.39
11.36
43.66%
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Murphy Oil Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Murphy Oil Highlights Strategy at Barclays Energy Conference
Positive
Sep 8, 2026
On September 9, 2026, President and CEO Eric M. Hambly was scheduled to present Murphy Oil Corporation’s latest investor update at the Barclays 40th Annual Energy-Power Conference and host meetings with investors, underscoring the company...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Murphy Oil Appoints New Chief Legal Officer
Positive
Aug 24, 2026
On August 24, 2026, Murphy Oil Corporation announced the appointment of Michol L. Ecklund as Senior Vice President, Chief Legal Officer and Corporate Secretary, effective August 31, 2026. She will join the executive leadership team and report dire...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.