Century Aluminum (EY3) AI Stock Analysis

Century Aluminum

(Frankfurt:EY3)

Rating:―N/A

Action:N/A

Date:―

No summary available

Positive Factors

Restart-driven capacity growthThe completed restarts expand productive capacity and should support higher shipment volumes beyond the partial-quarter contribution already reflected in results. Mt. Holly adds nearly 10% to U.S. production, while Grundartangi is approaching full output, strengthening operating scale over coming quarters.

Negative Factors

Highly cyclical earningsThe large historical swings in profitability indicate that earnings remain sensitive to aluminum prices, premiums, utilization, and operating conditions rather than being consistently recurring. This cyclicality can make current strong margins difficult to sustain if market conditions weaken.

Century Aluminum (EY3) vs. iShares MSCI Germany ETF (EWG)

Market Cap: EUR 3.32B
Dividend Yield: ―
Average Volume (3M): 153
Price to Earnings (P/E): 5.5
Beta (1Y): 1.39
Revenue Growth: 2.16%
EPS Growth: 358.82%
Country: Germany
Employees: 2,906
Sector: Basic Materials
Sector Strength: 61
Industry: Aluminum

Century Aluminum Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Century Aluminum Company, along with its associated entities, manufactures both standard and specialized primary aluminum products across the United States and Iceland. The firm also possesses and manages a facility dedicated to carbon anode producti...

Century Aluminum Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026(Q2-2026)|% Change Since:-24.52%|Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026

Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call conveyed materially positive operational and financial momentum: two major restarts completed (Mt. Holly and Grundartangi), rising shipments and strong sequential pricing that drove a $96 million increase in adjusted EBITDA, improved liquidity with cash exceeding total debt after July receipts, and clear progress toward the Oklahoma smelter with policy support that could be materially accretive. Headwinds are present but largely short-term or anticipated: restart-related instability at Mt. Holly expected to be resolved by Q3, Grundartangi operating conservatively until Q4 transformer installs, modest bauxite quality impacts at Jamalco, hedge and tax items reducing near-term earnings, and temporary working capital build from the expansion. Given that the highlights significantly outweigh the lowlights and management provided a constructive Q3 outlook, the overall tone is positive.

Positive Updates

Completion of Mt. Holly Expansion

Restart of final 90 pots completed late June, returning Mt. Holly to full capacity; increases total U.S. aluminum production by nearly 10%, adds over 150 full-time jobs, project on time and on budget and expected to repay capital costs by end of 2026; Q2 reflected a partial quarter of expanded tons with full benefit starting in Q3.

Negative Updates

Post-Restart Instability at Mt. Holly

Management reported some instability following the Mt. Holly restart that will modestly impact Q3 results; the issue is expected to be resolved by the end of Q3 and is included in the Q3 outlook but represents a short-term operational headwind.

Company Guidance

For Q3 management expects a lagged LME of $3.33k/ton (up ≈$75 vs Q2’s $3.25k/ton), a U.S. Midwest premium of ~$1.09/lb (down $0.03), and a European duty‑paid premium of ~$520/ton (up ≈$70), which together should add about $5–10M to results and drive an expected Q3 adjusted EBITDA of $325–$345M; they also forecast energy headwinds of $10–15M, a modest $5M raw‑materials headwind, flat OpEx, a $15–25M benefit from higher volume/sales mix (Mt. Holly and Grundartangi ramp), plus $20–25M of adverse realized hedge settlements and $10–15M of tax expense—against a Q2 backdrop of adjusted EBITDA $327M, shipments ≈131k tons, realized LME $3.25k/ton, cash $388M at June 30 (net debt $98M after $66M debt repayments, and cash exceeding total debt as of end‑July), with Mt. Holly finished goods expected to ship in Q3.

Century Aluminum Risk Analysis

Century Aluminum disclosed 41 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Century Aluminum reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added

0 New Risks

Century Aluminum Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

DE:EY3 against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CSTM	72Outperform	$3.11B	5.43	49.37%	―	26.10%	417.58%
AA	70Outperform	$10.34B	6.82	21.40%	1.00%	10.27%	32.09%
GGB	63Neutral	$8.53B	15.56	5.06%	3.24%	10.25%	4.20%
Sector *	61Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
KALU	59Neutral	$1.90B	8.66	24.13%	2.65%	40.43%	136.99%
CLF	54Neutral	$8.13B	-16.03	-8.14%	―	8.10%	75.20%

* Basic Materials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

DE:EY3 and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
DE:EY3	Century Aluminum Co	29.86	5.07	20.45%
AA	Alcoa Corporation	39.90	4.91	14.04%
CLF	Cleveland-Cliffs	14.27	3.59	33.61%
GGB	Gerdau	4.64	1.33	40.18%
KALU	Kaiser Aluminum	116.12	26.82	30.03%
CSTM	Constellium NV	22.98	7.05	44.26%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Century Aluminum AI Stock Analysis