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Coles Group (2OF) AI Stock Analysis

DE:2OF

Coles Group

(Frankfurt:2OF)

Rating:―N/A
Action:N/A
Date:―

No summary available

Positive Factors
Earnings growthEarnings are growing materially faster than sales, indicating operating leverage and effective execution across the group. This supports stronger internal funding for store expansion, digital investment and shareholder returns, while reinforcing Coles’ ability to compound profit despite its mature retail market.
Negative Factors
Liquor underperformanceThe liquor division is experiencing both declining revenue and sharply lower earnings, indicating a substantive portfolio problem rather than a minor fluctuation. Planned closures may improve the footprint over time, but remediation will constrain group growth and require management attention and execution.

Coles Group (2OF) vs. iShares MSCI Germany ETF (EWG)

-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%DE:2OF+13.89%EWG+6.61%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
Market Cap
EUR 23.05B
Dividend Yield
3.67%
Average Volume (3M)
2,010
Price to Earnings (P/E)
26.6
Beta (1Y)
-0.19
Revenue Growth
0.19%
EPS Growth
-1.39%
Country
Germany
Employees
115,000
Sector
Consumer Defensive
Sector Strength
62
Industry
Grocery Stores

Coles Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Coles Group Limited functions as a leading retailer across Australia, with its operations divided into Supermarkets, Liquor, and Express segments. The company oversees 835 supermarkets, alongside its online platform, coles.com.au, which provides flex...

Coles Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 23, 2026(Q4-2026)|% Change Since:-1.35%|Next Earnings Date:Mar 02, 2027
Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call presented a predominantly positive operational and financial picture: strong group earnings growth, robust supermarket performance, rapid and profitable eCommerce scaling (including EBITDA-positive CFCs), meaningful productivity delivery (A$311m SSI) and a healthy balance sheet supporting targeted growth investments. Material challenges were highlighted—primarily the weak Liquor segment (large EBIT decline and planned store closures), higher near-term implementation and CapEx costs (Capability Center and Victorian ADC), rising category-level inflationary pressure, and retail crime risks. While these lowlights are significant in areas, the breadth of core supermarket strength, eCommerce momentum, productivity gains and disciplined capital allocation outweigh the negatives, supporting confidence in the medium-term outlook.

Positive Updates

Strong Group Financial Growth
Group sales revenue $45.6bn, +2.8% YoY. Excluding significant items, group EBIT +9.9% and NPAT +13.7%. Group EBITDA (ex-sig items) +7.1%. Earnings growth materially ahead of sales growth.

Negative Updates

Liquor Segment Underperformance
Liquor sales revenue declined -3.3% YoY and Liquor EBIT declined -47.8% to A$59m. Liquor EBIT impacted by softer top line and A$20m of one-off Simply Liquorland conversion costs. Big Box (warehouse) segment experienced material weakness (total-year decline ~15–20%); 30 store closures planned in FY'27 as part of portfolio remediation.

Company Guidance

Guidance focused on targeted, measurable investment and disciplined delivery: Coles enters FY '27 with sales in the first 8 weeks tracking Q4 FY '26 and e‑commerce penetration at 15.7% (Supermarkets e‑commerce was $5.6bn in FY '26, +26.4%, 13.6% penetration), CFC sales +30% and CFCs now EBITDA‑positive; operating CapEx for FY '27 is expected to be ~$1.55bn (including ~ $300m for the Victorian ADC), with the $880m Victorian ADC to process 4.6m cartons/week and automation benefits coming into train in FY '29–FY '30; management will invest an incremental $300m by end FY '28 to support ~45 new supermarkets (net space growth >2%) and ~150 renewals, expects ~30 Liquor store closures in FY '27 as part of the turnaround, and will deliver capability savings via SSI (FY '26 SSI $311m, cumulative $876m since FY '24 and on track to exceed $1bn by end FY '27, ~$1.9bn since FY '20) plus a Coles Capability Center with Accenture that begins FY '27 benefits and targets >$100m p.a. by end FY '29 (with $190m one‑off implementation costs in FY '27); balance sheet metrics support this strategy (lease‑adjusted leverage 2.3x, undrawn facilities $2.5bn, weighted average drawn debt maturity 4.4 years).

Coles Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)

Financial Indicators

DE:2OF against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
AU:MTSAU:MTS70OutperformAUD 3.53B12.9216.56%5.61%0.18%-1.74%
Sector *62Neutral$20.33B14.63-3.31%3.23%1.93%-12.26%
AU:WOWAU:WOW57NeutralAUD 48.93B42.1924.14%2.46%3.56%18.13%
AU:BGAAU:BGA56NeutralAUD 1.92B35.765.46%2.32%6.66%―
AU:TWEAU:TWE52NeutralAUD 4.99B-4.68-29.99%―-12.18%-347.47%
AU:EDVAU:EDV42NeutralAUD 6.09B111.171.37%3.56%1.28%-87.89%

* Consumer Defensive Sector Average

Performance Comparison

-40%-20%0%20%40%DE:2OFAU:WOWAU:MTSAU:TWEAU:BGAAU:EDVDec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
DE:2OF and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
DE:2OFColes Group Ltd.13.401.8315.79%
AU:WOWWoolworths Group Ltd39.4612.0944.18%
AU:MTSMetcash Limited3.21-0.41-11.25%
AU:TWETreasury Wine Estates Limited6.250.427.20%
AU:BGABega Cheese Limited6.241.0720.70%
AU:EDVEndeavour Group Ltd3.37-0.11-3.08%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.