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Carvana Co
(NYSE:CVNA)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$75.00
▼(-80.65% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/11/26
The score is driven primarily by improved financial performance (profitability, positive free cash flow, and healthier leverage) and a constructive earnings outlook with record operational execution. This is tempered by valuation (P/E ~27.7 with no dividend) and only moderately supportive technical momentum, alongside near-term margin/GPU headwinds flagged on the earnings call.
Positive Factors
Sustained Cash Generation
Consistent positive TTM operating cash flow (~$0.9B) and FCF (~$0.74B) indicate durable cash generation. That cash flow supports reinvestment in reconditioning and logistics, deleveraging, and funding securitizations, improving resilience through cycles.
Negative Factors
GPU and Margin Compression
Declining retail and wholesale gross profit per unit and a drop in adjusted EBITDA margin signify weakening per-unit economics. If GPU pressure persists it undermines the unit-level profitability that underpins Carvana’s e-commerce model and long-term margin targets.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Sustained Cash Generation
Consistent positive TTM operating cash flow (~$0.9B) and FCF (~$0.74B) indicate durable cash generation. That cash flow supports reinvestment in reconditioning and logistics, deleveraging, and funding securitizations, improving resilience through cycles.
Read all positive factors
Carvana Co Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue from different business segments, highlighting which areas are driving growth and where the company might need to improve or expand.
Breaks down revenue from different business segments, highlighting which areas are driving growth and where the company might need to improve or expand.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCarvana Co (CVNA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$73.01B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)10.37M
Price to Earnings (P/E)29.8
Beta (1Y)2.32
Revenue Growth51.72%
EPS Growth234.92%
CountryUS
Employees23,100
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryAuto - Dealerships
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.73
Shares Outstanding716,288,400
10 Day Avg. Volume10,688,079
30 Day Avg. Volume10,365,382
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.08
Price to Book (P/B)16.88
Price to Sales (P/S)2.86
P/FCF Ratio65.33
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.92
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.98
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit14.93
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-762.91
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$93.65Price Target Upside-75.83% Downside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering16
EPS Forecast (FY)1.54
Revenue Forecast (FY)$27.84B
Carvana Co Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Carvana Co., along with its subsidiaries, operates a digital platform facilitating the purchase and sale of pre-owned vehicles across the United States. Their comprehensive services span the entire customer journey, including sourcing and recondit...
How the Company Makes Money
Carvana primarily makes money by generating revenue from used-vehicle retail sales and from ancillary services tied to each transaction. A major revenue stream is the sale of used cars to consumers, where the company earns the spread between the v...
Carvana Co Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized multiple company records (units sold, revenue, adjusted EBITDA, GAAP operating income), strong execution on operational fixes (notably recon tooling and labor efficiency), and improved financial leverage (net debt/EBITDA 1.1x). Offsetting these positives were margin pressures from GPU declines, wholesale-to-retail spread compression (a $100–$200 per-unit headwind), increased advertising and overhead investments, and ongoing recon work whose benefits will take time to fully flow through. Management characterized many headwinds as transitory and reiterated a clear path to long-term margin targets, while committing to reinvesting operational gains for customers and growth. Overall, the call conveyed confidence in execution and scale, but acknowledged near-term mix and margin headwinds.Positive Updates
Record Sales and Top-Line Growth
Retail units sold reached a company record of 187,393 in Q1 (+40% year-over-year). Revenue was $6.43 billion, up 52% year-over-year, driven by unit growth and certain traditional gross revenue treatment for partner-acquired vehicles.
Negative Updates
GPU Compression and Margin Pressure
Non-GAAP retail GPU decreased by $58, wholesale GPU decreased by $83, and other GPU decreased by $88 (other GPU decline driven in part by lower interest rates passed to customers). Adjusted EBITDA margin fell to 10.4% from 11.5% (down 1.1 percentage points) and net income margin declined to 6.3% from 8.8% (down 2.5 percentage points).
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Sales and Top-Line Growth
Retail units sold reached a company record of 187,393 in Q1 (+40% year-over-year). Revenue was $6.43 billion, up 52% year-over-year, driven by unit growth and certain traditional gross revenue treatment for partner-acquired vehicles.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance highlights: For Q2 management expects sequential increases in retail units sold and adjusted EBITDA—forecasting all‑time company records on both—while retail GPU should rise sequentially but decline year‑over‑year due to roughly $100 of last‑year tariff benefits, lower shipping fees, higher non‑vehicle costs, and an estimated $100–$200 headwind from narrower wholesale‑to‑retail spreads; they reiterated being on track for significant full‑year 2026 growth in retail units and adjusted EBITDA and for the long‑term goal of 3 million cars/year at a 13.5% adjusted‑EBITDA margin by 2030–2035. (Q1 baseline metrics: retail units 187,393, +40%; revenue $6.43B, +52%; GAAP operating income $581M; adjusted EBITDA $672M, 10.4% margin; net income $405M, 6.3% margin; net debt/TTM adjusted EBITDA = 1.1x; retail GPU -$58 YoY; wholesale GPU -$83; other GPU -$88; non‑GAAP SG&A per retail unit -$170 including -$36 operations and -$226 overhead; advertising +$92 per unit.)Carvana Co Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
72
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 22.52B | 20.32B | 13.67B | 10.77B | 13.60B | 12.81B |
| Gross Profit | 4.50B | 4.19B | 2.71B | 1.72B | 1.00B | 1.83B |
| EBITDA | -88.00M | -110.00M | 1.36B | 1.16B | -2.15B | -5.00M |
| Net Income | 1.60B | 1.41B | 210.00M | 450.00M | -1.59B | -135.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 13.77B | 13.20B | 8.48B | 7.07B | 8.70B | 7.01B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.41B | 2.33B | 2.18B | 896.00M | 755.00M | 785.00M |
| Total Debt | 621.00M | 633.00M | 6.05B | 6.71B | 8.82B | 5.77B |
| Total Liabilities | 9.14B | 9.00B | 7.11B | 7.46B | 9.75B | 6.49B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.72B | 3.44B | 1.26B | 243.00M | -518.00M | 306.00M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 740.00M | 889.00M | 827.00M | 716.00M | -1.84B | -3.15B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 911.00M | 1.04B | 918.00M | 803.00M | -1.32B | -2.59B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -226.00M | -230.00M | -13.00M | 31.00M | -2.58B | -627.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -77.00M | -137.00M | 261.00M | -868.00M | 3.90B | 3.53B |
Carvana Co Technical Analysis
Positive
387.53
Price Trends
70.74
Negative
68.56
Positive
73.20
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.84
Negative
52.09
Neutral
65.52
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CVNA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 387.53 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 66.66, above the 50-day MA of 70.74, and above the 200-day MA of 73.20, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.84 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.09 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 65.52 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CVNA.
Carvana Co Risk Analysis
Carvana Co disclosed 84 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Carvana Co reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Carvana Co Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $73.01B | 29.76 | 57.15% | ― | 51.72% | 234.92% | |
64 Neutral | $50.03B | 20.36 | -80.35% | ― | 5.74% | -1.73% | |
63 Neutral | $6.24B | 10.01 | 28.44% | ― | 1.94% | 9.88% | |
63 Neutral | $71.97B | 27.97 | -263.22% | ― | 7.92% | 12.42% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
60 Neutral | $7.61B | 34.20 | 3.67% | ― | -1.69% | -58.01% | |
58 Neutral | $3.71B | 83.91 | 2.00% | 2.53% | -8.26% | ― |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
CVNA
Carvana Co
68.60
-2.86
-4.01%
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Carvana Co Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder MeetingsStock Split
Carvana Shareholders Approve Forward Stock Split and Incentive Plan
Positive
May 6, 2026
Carvana Co. held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders on May 5, 2026, where shareholders approved the Carvana Co. 2026 Omnibus Incentive Plan and re-elected two Class III directors, Michael Maroone and Neha Parikh, to new three-year terms. Inve...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.