Coty (COTY) AI Stock Analysis

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Coty

(NYSE:COTY)

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Rating:58Neutral

Price Target:$3.50▲(0.86% Upside)

Action:reiterated

Date:11/05/26

The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance—recent net losses and revenue contraction—despite supportive free cash flow and some balance-sheet improvement. Technicals are a clear positive with an established uptrend and strong momentum. The latest earnings call adds moderate support via a concrete FY27 transition plan and cash-flow/EBITDA targets, but sizable execution risks (sell-out weakness and Gucci exit) limit upside confidence; valuation is constrained by a negative P/E and no dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Cash generationConsistently positive operating and free cash flow gives Coty internal funding for investment, restructuring and debt reduction. The 2026 rebound to $348 million improves financial flexibility and supports continued reinvestment even while reported earnings remain volatile.

Negative Factors

Sustained net lossesThe return to substantial net losses shows that strong gross profit and revenue growth are not yet translating into durable bottom-line profitability. Persistent losses can reduce retained capital, constrain strategic flexibility and make the benefits of the broader turnaround plan harder to realize.

Coty Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Revenue by GeographyBreaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where Coty is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.

Chart Insights

EMEA is the company’s biggest, most cyclical revenue driver—it produced recent peaks but also the steepest pullbacks, reflecting travel‑retail and retailer destocking headwinds (Middle East disruption). Americas shows early, SKU-driven consumer recovery but remains promotional and volatile, while APAC is steady but a smaller contributor. Management’s Coty.Curated, SKU rationalization and working‑capital focus should reduce E&O and smooth sell‑in, yet tariffs, oil inflation and travel‑retail exposure mean near‑term regional volatility before EBITDA recovery in FY27.

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The Fly

Coty (COTY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap: $3.06B
Dividend Yield: ―
Average Volume (3M): 5.98M
Price to Earnings (P/E): -5.3
Beta (1Y): 1.05
Revenue Growth: -1.46%
EPS Growth: -60.87%
Country: US
Employees: 11,335
Sector: Consumer Defensive
Sector Strength: 62
Industry: Household & Personal Products

Coty Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Coty Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, distributes, and sells branded beauty products worldwide. It operates through two segments: the Prestige and Consumer Beauty. The company provides fragrance, color cosmetics, and skin...

How the Company Makes Money

Coty primarily makes money by selling beauty products—especially fragrances, cosmetics, and skin/body care—to retailers, distributors, and e-commerce channels around the world. Revenue is generated when Coty ships products (owned brands and licensed...

Coty Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 18, 2026(Q4-2026)|% Change Since:14.52%|Next Earnings Date:Feb 08, 2027

Earnings Call SentimentNeutral

The call conveyed cautious optimism: clear operational actions and early wins (notably in U.S. consumer, Brazil and Travel Retail), SKU rationalization, lowered CapEx and identified financial mitigants (tariff refund potential and Kering compensation) provide constructive upside. However, the company faces material near-term challenges — sell-out trailing the category, inventory/obsolescence pressures, the upcoming Gucci departure (low double-digit % of sales) and slower implementation in Europe — which require significant restructuring and create execution and timing risk. Management presented a balanced, pragmatic plan but significant uncertainties remain for FY27.

Positive Updates

U.S. Consumer Turnaround - CoverGirl & Sally Hansen

Focused advertising and concentrated investment in core franchises drove meaningful sell-out improvement in the U.S.; Sally Hansen is now growing ahead of the market in value and CoverGirl has substantially reduced its gap versus the category through focused TV and innovation (e.g., Insta-Dri).

Negative Updates

Sell-Out Trailing the Category

Sell-out has been trailing the category for the last couple of quarters, leading to lower sell-in, excess inventory, returns and obsolescence that contributed to EBITDA pressure; management expects a transition year (FY27) and cannot precisely predict how quickly sell-out will close the gap.

Company Guidance

Coty framed fiscal 2027 as a transition year (Q1 guidance only) and said it is targeting FY‑27 EBITDA and free cash flow “close to” fiscal 2026 levels, while implementing measures to drive sell‑out and market‑share (now a key KPI tied into FY‑27 incentives); specific metrics cited include $20–30 million of oil‑related costs assumed at $90–$100/bbl, a potential $30 million tariff refund as upside, a planned ~20% SKU reduction on shelves (timed with spring/fall resets), lower CapEx, and a Consumer Beauty strategic review targeted for completion by calendar 2026 — with the goal of returning the underlying portfolio (ex‑Gucci, which represented a low‑double‑digit % of sales) to growth in FY‑28 alongside restructuring/productivity savings.

Coty Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall fundamentals are mixed. Cash generation is the main support (positive operating and free cash flow across periods with stronger TTM FCF), but profitability has deteriorated sharply with net losses in recent years/TTM and revenue contraction in annual 2026 and TTM. Balance sheet leverage appears improved in the latest TTM snapshot, yet negative ROE and earnings volatility remain key risks.

Income Statement

34Negative

Balance Sheet

46Neutral

Cash Flow

63Positive

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Jun 2026	Jun 2025	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.78B	5.81B	5.89B	6.12B	5.55B	5.30B
Gross Profit	3.40B	3.65B	3.82B	3.94B	3.55B	3.38B
EBITDA	104.30M	27.20M	949.90M	1.00B	964.90M	856.30M
Net Income	-563.20M	-604.80M	-367.90M	89.40M	508.20M	259.50M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	10.35B	10.20B	11.91B	12.08B	12.66B	12.12B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	223.40M	176.10M	257.10M	300.80M	246.90M	233.30M
Total Debt	2.93B	3.44B	4.25B	4.12B	4.55B	4.78B
Total Liabilities	6.87B	6.82B	7.95B	7.83B	8.43B	8.56B
Stockholders Equity	3.25B	3.13B	3.69B	3.97B	3.95B	3.30B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	421.60M	348.20M	277.60M	369.40M	402.90M	552.50M
Operating Cash Flow	603.00M	537.80M	492.60M	614.60M	625.70M	726.60M
Investing Cash Flow	797.00M	539.00M	-128.40M	-226.20M	-118.20M	269.70M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.45B	-1.16B	-426.80M	-336.70M	-469.30M	-1.03B

Coty Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentPositive

Last Price3.47

Price Trends

50DMA2.90Positive

100DMA2.69Positive

200DMA2.53Positive

Market Momentum

MACD0.16Negative

RSI67.48Neutral

STOCH68.50Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For COTY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3.47 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.18, above the 50-day MA of 2.90, and above the 200-day MA of 2.53, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.16 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.48 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.50 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for COTY.

Coty Risk Analysis

Coty disclosed 48 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Coty reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added

3 New Risks

1.Potential divestitures, and any retained liabilities from such sold business, could negatively impact our business and financial results.Q2, 2026

2.Evolving supply chain diligence, sourcing, packaging and product-related requirements could increase our costs, restrict sales of our products or adversely affect our reputation.Q2, 2026

3.Volatility in the cost or availability of raw materials, packaging, transportation and other inputs, or disruptions involving our suppliers, could adversely affect our business.Q2, 2026

Coty Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (62)

Financial Indicators

COTY against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
IPAR	80Outperform	$3.75B	23.27	19.15%	2.59%	2.93%	4.24%
ELF	65Neutral	$6.58B	77.83	5.18%	―	31.23%	-42.14%
EL	63Neutral	$38.19B	109.84	9.28%	1.25%	6.23%	―
Sector *	62Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
COTY	58Neutral	$2.90B	-5.34	-18.06%	―	-1.46%	-60.87%
ODD	43Neutral	$925.26M	71.90	4.60%	―	-9.68%	-84.42%

* Consumer Defensive Sector Average

Performance Comparison

COTY and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
COTY	Coty Inc	3.47	-0.25	-6.72%
EL	Estée Lauder	112.04	25.49	29.45%
IPAR	Inter Parfums	123.57	38.71	45.62%
ELF	e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.	113.63	37.09	48.46%
ODD	ODDITY Tech Ltd. Class A	21.57	-18.39	-46.02%

Coty Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes

Coty Announces CFO Transition and Leadership Changes

Neutral

Sep 11, 2026

Coty has implemented leadership transition arrangements following the previously announced appointment of Soraya Benchikh as Chief Financial Officer. Laurent Mercier ceased serving as CFO on September 1, 2026 and moved into the role of Strategic CEO...

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Nov 05, 2026

Coty AI Stock Analysis