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Coinbase Global (COIN)
NASDAQ:COIN
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Coinbase Global
(NASDAQ:COIN)
Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$298.00
▲(11.86%Upside)
Positive Factors
Financial Growth
Analyst expects Coinbase's earnings per share to grow at a compound annual growth rate of around 38%, significantly outpacing market consensus for future estimates.
Index Inclusion
Coinbase Global (COIN) will be added to the S&P 500 Index, making history as the first pure-play crypto company to join the index.
Market Position
Coinbase remains the dominant platform with 66% U.S market share, supported by the aspiration to make America the 'crypto capital of the world'.
Negative Factors
Cybersecurity Issues
Coinbase Global disclosed a significant cybersecurity breach and confirmed an ongoing SEC investigation regarding its past user metrics.
Profitability Challenges
The outlook for the second quarter disappoints due to a structural shift in volume mix from retail to institutions, which earns thinner margins, thereby dragging near-term profitability.
Retail Volume Decline
Retail transaction volume has declined from its peak, and the decline in retail trading frequency is expected to be structural due to lower volatility and the existence of ETFs as low-cost convenient alternatives.
Coinbase Global (COIN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$67.03B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)12.52M
Price to Earnings (P/E)49.3
Beta (1Y)2.82
Revenue Growth48.30%
EPS Growth5.09%
CountryUS
Employees3,772
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength82
IndustryFinancial - Data & Stock Exchanges
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.24
Shares Outstanding211,407,410
10 Day Avg. Volume22,866,693
30 Day Avg. Volume12,521,866
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.31
Price to Book (P/B)4.88
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio19.87
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.69
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.40
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.69
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.12
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$261.43Price Target Upside-1.87% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering23
Coinbase Global Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionCoinbase Global, Inc. provides financial infrastructure and technology for the cryptoeconomy in the United States and internationally. It offers the primary financial account in the cryptoeconomy for consumers; a marketplace with a pool of liquidity for transacting in crypto assets for institutions; and technology and services that enable developers to build crypto-based applications and securely accept crypto assets as payment. The company was founded in 2012 and is based in Wilmington, Delaware.
How the Company Makes MoneyCoinbase primarily generates revenue through transaction fees charged on its trading platform. These fees are applied when users buy, sell, or trade cryptocurrencies on the exchange. The company offers different fee structures for retail and institutional clients, with professional traders often enjoying lower rates due to higher trading volumes. Additionally, Coinbase earns money from subscription services, such as Coinbase Pro and Coinbase One, which offer advanced trading features and reduced fees. The company also gains revenue from interest on customer custodial funds and by providing a range of institutional services, including custody and staking options. Partnerships with financial institutions and strategic investments in blockchain technology companies further contribute to Coinbase's earnings.
Coinbase Global Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Trading Volume
Measures the total value of cryptocurrency transactions on the platform, reflecting user engagement, market activity, and the company's ability to generate transaction fees.
Measures the total value of cryptocurrency transactions on the platform, reflecting user engagement, market activity, and the company's ability to generate transaction fees.
Data provided by:
Main Street Data
Main Street DataCoinbase Global Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: 29.01%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Coinbase demonstrated strong financial performance and significant advancements in derivatives market share and international expansion. The acquisition of Deribit and growth in USDC highlight strategic growth moves. However, challenges remain with declines in transaction revenue and potential macroeconomic impacts on crypto markets.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
Coinbase reported Q1 2025 revenue of $2 billion with $930 million in adjusted EBITDA, indicating resilience in an uncertain macro environment.
Derivatives Market Share Growth
Coinbase drove over $800 billion in global derivatives trading volume, with a significant market share increase driven by its international exchange, resulting in a 60% increase in market share.
Deribit Acquisition
Coinbase announced the acquisition of Deribit for $2.9 billion, making it the number one crypto derivatives platform globally by open interest.
USDC Market Cap and Revenue Growth
USDC hit a market cap all-time high of $60 billion in Q1 2025, with Coinbase's USDC balances increasing by 49% quarter-over-quarter to $12 billion.
International Expansion
Coinbase secured a vast registration in Argentina and registered with India’s financial intelligence unit, FIU, unlocking access to one of the fastest-growing crypto markets.
Subscription and Services Revenue
Subscription and services revenue grew 9% to an all-time high of $698 million.
Legal and Regulatory Wins
The dismissal of the SEC lawsuit against Coinbase marked a major judicial win, and Coinbase saw progress in bipartisan legislation for crypto market structure and stablecoins.
Negative Updates
Transaction Revenue Decline
Transaction revenue was $1.3 billion, down 19% quarter-over-quarter, driven by a decline in consumer and institutional trading volumes.
Macro Uncertainty Impact
Macro uncertainty, including global trade policy, may contribute to softer crypto trading markets and lower asset prices entering Q2.
Spot Trading Volume Decline
Total global spot trading was down 13%, with Coinbase outperforming at a decline of 10%.
Company Guidance
In the Coinbase First Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, the company provided comprehensive guidance and performance metrics. Coinbase reported Q1 revenue of $2 billion and an adjusted EBITDA of $930 million, showcasing resilience in a challenging macro environment. The company achieved significant milestones, including a $60 billion market cap for USDC, a 49% increase in average USDC held in Coinbase products to $12 billion, and a $4 billion stablecoin balance driven by USDC. The acquisition of Deribit, valued at $2.9 billion, positions Coinbase as the leading crypto derivatives platform globally with 75% market share in options and $1 trillion in trading volume. Additionally, Coinbase anticipates Q2 subscription and services revenue to be between $600 million and $680 million, with macro uncertainty potentially impacting crypto trading markets. The company plans to invest in trading incentives, expecting a $30-$40 million impact, and remains focused on strategic growth initiatives, including expanding its product offerings and international presence.Coinbase Global Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Coinbase Global has shown significant improvement in its financial performance, particularly in revenue growth and profitability margins. The balance sheet reflects a healthy leverage position with a Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 0.44 and strong equity base, though asset reductions may need attention. Cash flow metrics are robust, highlighting the company's ability to generate cash effectively.Income Statement
Coinbase Global has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with Total Revenue increasing significantly from $3108 million in 2023 to $6564 million in 2024, a growth rate of 111%. The Gross Profit Margin was high at 86.3% in 2024, indicating efficient cost management. However, the company experienced volatility in profitability with a Net Profit Margin of 39.3% in 2024, which is an improvement from previous losses. The EBIT and EBITDA margins also improved positively to 35.1% in 2024.75
Positive
Balance Sheet
The Debt-to-Equity Ratio was 0.44 in 2024, reflecting a balanced leverage position. Return on Equity (ROE) was 25.1%, indicating strong profitability relative to shareholder equity. The Equity Ratio was 45.6%, showing a solid equity foundation. However, the company’s Total Assets have decreased compared to prior periods, which could pose a challenge for future growth.70
Positive
Cash Flow
Coinbase Global showed strong cash flow performance with a Free Cash Flow of $2556 million in 2024, improving from $860 million in 2023. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio was 0.99, indicating efficient cash generation relative to earnings. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio was also favorable at 0.99, suggesting strong cash flow conversion from profit.80
Positive
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 6.56B | 3.11B | 3.19B | 7.84B | 1.28B | Gross Profit |
| 5.67B | 2.69B | 2.56B | 6.57B | 1.14B | EBIT |
| 2.31B | -161.66M | -2.67B | 3.08B | 408.95M | EBITDA |
| 3.12B | 25.21M | -2.82B | 3.14B | 464.93M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 2.58B | 94.87M | -2.62B | 3.62B | 322.32M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 9.82B | 10.29B | 5.29B | 7.22B | 1.11B | Total Assets |
| 22.54B | 206.98B | 89.72B | 21.27B | 5.86B | Total Debt |
| 4.53B | 3.06B | 3.49B | 3.49B | 107.78M | Net Debt |
| -4.22B | -2.08B | -935.28M | -3.63B | -954.07M | Total Liabilities |
| 12.27B | 200.70B | 84.27B | 14.89B | 4.33B | Stockholders Equity |
| 10.28B | 6.28B | 5.45B | 6.38B | 1.53B |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| 2.56B | 859.75M | -1.65B | 10.64B | 2.99B | Operating Cash Flow |
| 2.56B | 922.95M | -1.59B | 10.73B | 3.00B | Investing Cash Flow |
| -282.38M | 5.39M | -663.82M | -1.12B | 50.82M | Financing Cash Flow |
| 2.83B | -811.33M | -5.84B | 3.28B | 18.80M |
Coinbase Global Technical Analysis
Positive
266.40
Price Trends
203.55
Positive
228.18
Positive
227.75
Positive
Market Momentum
18.54
Negative
59.51
Neutral
59.84
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For COIN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 266.4 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 234.32, above the 50-day MA of 203.55, and above the 200-day MA of 227.75, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 18.54 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.51 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.84 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for COIN.
Coinbase Global Risk Analysis
Coinbase Global disclosed 85 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Coinbase Global reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
We cannot guarantee that the Share Repurchase Program will be fully consummated or that such program will enhance the long-term value of our Class A common stock price. Q4, 2024
2.
If we fail to maintain an effective system of disclosure controls and procedures and internal control over our financial reporting, our ability to produce timely and accurate financial statements or comply with applicable regulations could be impaired. Q4, 2024
3.
Issues relating to the development and use of AI in our business could result in reputational harm, competitive harm, and legal liability, and could adversely affect our business, operating results, and financial condition. Q4, 2024
Coinbase Global Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $67.03B | 49.32 | 15.83% | ― | 48.30% | 5.09% | |
73 Outperform | $4.67B | ― | -63.52% | ― | 30.08% | -196.62% | |
67 Neutral | $20.25B | 887.50 | 0.38% | ― | 17.24% | ― | |
64 Neutral | $12.77B | 9.79 | 7.55% | 17015.06% | 12.20% | -6.98% | |
63 Neutral | $1.25B | ― | -36.95% | ― | 17.79% | 16.49% | |
60 Neutral | $3.27B | 24.36 | -14.71% | ― | 59.99% | -283.24% | |
51 Neutral | $101.03B | ― | -29.68% | ― | -6.19% | -3736.55% |
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
COIN
Coinbase Global
254.29
17.64
7.45%
RIOT
Riot Platforms
8.38
-1.62
-16.20%
MSTR
Strategy
364.25
202.38
125.03%
SPT
Sprout Social
21.44
-11.35
-34.61%
GRND
Grindr
23.86
14.54
156.01%
GRAB
Grab
4.97
1.33
36.54%
Coinbase Global Corporate Events
M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Coinbase Acquires Deribit in Major Cryptocurrency Deal
Positive
May 8, 2025
On May 8, 2025, Coinbase Global, Inc. entered into a Share Purchase Agreement to acquire all outstanding shares of Deribit, a Netherlands-based company, for $700 million in cash and nearly 11 million shares of Coinbase’s Class A common stock. This acquisition, pending regulatory approvals and other conditions, aims to strengthen Coinbase’s market position and expand its offerings in the cryptocurrency space, with significant implications for stakeholders, including a lock-up arrangement for certain Deribit shareholders and a potential $100 million termination fee if regulatory approvals are not obtained by November 8, 2025.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.