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CME Group
(NASDAQ:CME)
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Rating:80Outperform
Price Target:
$340.00
▲(22.60% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/21/26
CME scores well primarily due to exceptional profitability and accelerating revenue momentum with conservative leverage, reinforced by a strongly positive earnings call highlighting record activity and continued record-year tracking. The score is tempered by overbought technical conditions and a fair-to-slightly-rich valuation (P/E ~24.9), plus some volatility flags in cash-flow growth metrics.
Positive Factors
Broad Trading Growth
Record volume growth across every major asset class demonstrates broad customer demand rather than dependence on a single market. Higher activity should support transaction fees, reinforce CME’s network advantages, and sustain operating leverage over the coming quarters.
Negative Factors
Regulatory Approval Risk
Regulatory uncertainty can delay or prevent commercialization of Compute Futures, limiting a potential avenue for growth tied to AI infrastructure and data-center exposure. Prolonged review also consumes development and distribution effort without assured revenue contribution.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Broad Trading Growth
Record volume growth across every major asset class demonstrates broad customer demand rather than dependence on a single market. Higher activity should support transaction fees, reinforce CME’s network advantages, and sustain operating leverage over the coming quarters.
Read all positive factors
CME Group Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Shows how much revenue each business unit generates, highlighting which segments are driving growth and which may need strategic adjustments.
Shows how much revenue each business unit generates, highlighting which segments are driving growth and which may need strategic adjustments.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCME Group (CME) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$106.19B
Dividend Yield3.82%
Average Volume (3M)1.93M
Price to Earnings (P/E)24.1
Beta (1Y)0.15
Revenue Growth8.99%
EPS Growth18.85%
CountryUS
Employees3,875
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Data & Stock Exchanges
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)11.85
Shares Outstanding359,576,100
10 Day Avg. Volume2,354,250
30 Day Avg. Volume1,930,732
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.59
Price to Book (P/B)3.42
Price to Sales (P/S)15.06
P/FCF Ratio23.42
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.90
Enterprise Value/Revenue14.03
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit17.14
Enterprise Value/Ebitda17.18
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$308.58Price Target Upside11.27% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)12.38
Revenue Forecast (FY)$7.08B
CME Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
CME Group Inc., through its various subsidiaries, manages international marketplaces for the exchange of futures and options on futures contracts worldwide. Its extensive array of product offerings includes futures and options linked to a broad sp...
How the Company Makes Money
CME Group primarily makes money by charging customers for using its markets and infrastructure. Its largest revenue stream is transaction-based fees from trading futures and options contracts: each time a contract is executed, CME earns fees that ...
CME Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 21, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 10, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was strongly positive, led by record third-quarter volume, revenue, market data, international activity, earnings, open interest, capital efficiency, retail acquisition, and shareholder returns. Management also highlighted broad product innovation, cloud and clearing initiatives, strong client demand, and multiple growth opportunities. The main negatives were regulatory uncertainty around Compute Futures and perpetuals, the withdrawal of the 24/7 WTI filing, lower clearing-house balances affecting net interest income, and several initiatives that remained in early or ramp-up stages. Overall, the highlights significantly outweighed the lowlights.Positive Updates
Record Third-Quarter Trading Volume
Third-quarter average daily volume reached 29.4 million contracts, the highest third-quarter average daily volume in CME Group's history and up 16% year over year. Growth was broad-based, with double-digit year-over-year volume growth in all six asset classes; financial and commodity products each grew 16%.
Negative Updates
Regulatory Timing Uncertainty for Compute Futures
The CFTC extended the comment period for Compute Futures by another 45 days, ending on or about November 9, after which the agency must decide how to proceed. Management said the timing remained unknown and that CME could not move forward until receiving government approval.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Third-Quarter Trading Volume
Third-quarter average daily volume reached 29.4 million contracts, the highest third-quarter average daily volume in CME Group's history and up 16% year over year. Growth was broad-based, with double-digit year-over-year volume growth in all six asset classes; financial and commodity products each grew 16%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management said it is on track for the December 7 launch of CME Securities Clearing, expects to begin migrating its markets to Google Cloud in late 2027, and expects the October 1 pricing changes to have an annualized impact of somewhere in the range of 0.5%-1% of clearing and transaction fees; the Cboe licensing agreement may provide increases starting in 2027, not 2032, while firms are targeting Q4 to be fully up and running for CME FICC Cross Margining, which is expected to have a ramp-up period. As the company enters the fourth quarter, volume is surpassing last year's record fourth quarter by 17%, it is tracking 12% ahead of last year's record volume year-to-date, and management remains firmly on track to deliver another record year, but said there is no fundamental change in the outlook and it does not share specific expectations about future market data growth.CME Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
92
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
84
Very Positive
Cash Flow
72
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 6.77B | 6.52B | 6.13B | 5.58B | 5.02B | 4.69B |
| Gross Profit | 5.55B | 5.61B | 5.28B | 4.75B | 4.27B | 3.85B |
| EBITDA | 5.53B | 5.78B | 5.04B | 4.67B | 4.02B | 3.93B |
| Net Income | 4.27B | 4.04B | 3.53B | 3.23B | 2.69B | 2.64B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 194.68B | 198.42B | 137.45B | 129.71B | 174.18B | 196.78B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.28B | 4.54B | 3.01B | 3.02B | 2.82B | 2.95B |
| Total Debt | 3.42B | 3.42B | 3.43B | 3.43B | 3.44B | 3.45B |
| Total Liabilities | 168.22B | 169.70B | 110.96B | 102.97B | 147.30B | 169.38B |
| Stockholders Equity | 26.52B | 28.73B | 26.49B | 26.74B | 26.88B | 27.40B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 4.21B | 4.19B | 3.60B | 3.38B | 2.97B | 2.28B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.31B | 4.28B | 3.69B | 3.45B | 3.06B | 2.40B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 1.48B | 1.50B | -82.60M | 20.90M | -489.80M | 58.40M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 10.32B | 56.51B | 5.08B | -48.34B | -25.38B | 69.91B |
CME Group Technical Analysis
Positive
277.32
Price Trends
276.14
Positive
262.48
Positive
275.88
Positive
Market Momentum
7.45
Negative
78.51
Negative
87.66
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CME, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 277.32 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 278.17, above the 50-day MA of 276.14, and above the 200-day MA of 275.88, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 7.45 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 78.51 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.66 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CME.
CME Group Risk Analysis
CME Group disclosed 28 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. CME Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
CME Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $106.19B | 24.13 | 16.24% | 3.82% | 8.99% | 18.85% | |
79 Outperform | $130.64B | 26.97 | 15.47% | 0.87% | 9.67% | 26.18% | |
78 Outperform | $52.99B | 27.70 | 16.31% | 1.21% | 7.35% | 31.93% | |
76 Outperform | $89.02B | 22.18 | 13.81% | 1.29% | 12.60% | 35.84% | |
74 Outperform | $32.90B | 24.77 | 25.75% | 0.95% | 11.68% | 50.39% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
63 Neutral | $45.08B | -47.99 | -6.89% | ― | -43.42% | -132.70% |
* Financial Sector Average
CME
CME Group
295.79
36.94
14.27%
CBOE
Cboe Global Markets
318.82
83.96
35.75%
ICE
Intercontinental Exchange
157.69
2.31
1.49%
SPGI
S&P Global
443.16
-9.38
-2.07%
NDAQ
Nasdaq
96.12
8.46
9.65%
COIN
Coinbase Global
177.08
-145.68
-45.14%
CME Group Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
CME Group Streamlines Capital Structure With Charter Update
Positive
Sep 25, 2026
On September 24, 2026, CME Group Inc. filed a certificate of elimination with Delaware authorities to remove all provisions related to its Series G Non-Voting Convertible Preferred Stock from its certificate of incorporation. At the time of filing...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
CME Group Announces Key Senior Leadership Transitions
Positive
Sep 9, 2026
On September 9, 2026, CME Group announced a series of senior leadership changes in its finance and legal divisions, underscoring succession planning ahead of President CFO Lynne Fitzpatrick’s move to the CEO role in March 2027. Jack Tobin, ...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
CME Group Announces Updated Pricing and Fee Structure
Neutral
Aug 11, 2026
On August 11, 2026, CME Group Inc., the major derivatives exchange operator, notified clients of pricing changes through Special Executive Report No. 9799 and posted the notice on its website. The company emphasized that the pricing communication,...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.