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Calumet Specialty Products
(NASDAQ:CLMT)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$53.00
▲(10.99% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/15/26
The score is driven primarily by improving operating performance and cash generation (strong TTM OCF/FCF and a bullish earnings-call backdrop with accelerated deleveraging), supported by strong technical uptrends. The rating is capped by the stressed balance sheet (deeply negative equity) and ongoing losses reflected in the negative P/E and weak profitability.
Positive Factors
Specialty products momentum
Specialty products are differentiated, specification-driven offerings that can support stronger customer retention and pricing than commodity fuels. Sustained volume growth, record production, and more than 20 realized price increases indicate improving commercial traction and a potentially more durable earnings mix.
Negative Factors
Deeply negative equity
A deeply negative equity position leaves a limited balance-sheet cushion against operating setbacks and reduces resilience through weaker market conditions. Although debt has declined, the accumulated deficit and history of elevated leverage can constrain capital allocation and increase dependence on continued cash generation.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Specialty products momentum
Specialty products are differentiated, specification-driven offerings that can support stronger customer retention and pricing than commodity fuels. Sustained volume growth, record production, and more than 20 realized price increases indicate improving commercial traction and a potentially more durable earnings mix.
Read all positive factors
Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.93B
Dividend Yield16.28%
Average Volume (3M)1.48M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.68
Revenue Growth12.80%
EPS Growth70.13%
CountryUS
Employees1,540
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryChemicals - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.55
Shares Outstanding87,898,230
10 Day Avg. Volume1,373,699
30 Day Avg. Volume1,482,666
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.60
Price to Book (P/B)-2.35
Price to Sales (P/S)0.42
P/FCF Ratio30.46
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.12
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.20
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit18.29
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-201.99
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$55.80Price Target Upside16.86% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)-2.28
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.09B
Calumet Specialty Products Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Calumet, Inc. engages in the manufacturing, formulation, and sale of specialty branded products and renewable fuel. It operates through the following segments: Specialty Products and Solutions, Montana/Renewables, Performance Brands, and Corporate...
How the Company Makes Money
Calumet makes money by processing crude oil and other hydrocarbon feedstocks in its refining and specialty production facilities and selling the resulting products at market-based prices. Its earnings are generally driven by (a) the margin between...
Calumet Specialty Products Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 07, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational and commercial momentum: robust consolidated adjusted EBITDA ($175M), specialty segment outperformance (specialty EBITDA $161.7M, >100% YoY improvement), positive cash generation (> $90M OCF), accelerated deleveraging (restricted leverage <4x, $100M note call, $115M sale-leaseback repurchase), and an actionable, capital-efficient Montana Renewables expansion with favorable SAF economics and improving index margins (~$2.60/gal). Lowlights were primarily timing- and accounting-related (planned turnarounds with ~$40M foregone margin, working capital build of ~$70M, $20M hedge offset, and a temporary Performance Brands margin headwind tied to LIFO and pricing lags) and some external industry supply/logistics pressures. Overall, the positives—strong earnings, cash flow, accelerated debt reduction, and high-return growth projects—substantially outweigh the transitory and manageable negatives.Positive Updates
Strong Consolidated Earnings
Delivered $175 million of adjusted EBITDA (with tax attributes) in Q2 2026, driven by Specialty Products & Solutions and Montana Renewables.
Negative Updates
Turnarounds and Downtime Impact
Company began the quarter with three planned turnarounds (Princeton, Cotton Valley, Montana Renewables). MRL was offline all of April and half of May, contributing to an estimated ~$40 million of foregone margin in Q2.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Consolidated Earnings
Delivered $175 million of adjusted EBITDA (with tax attributes) in Q2 2026, driven by Specialty Products & Solutions and Montana Renewables.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated guidance toward accelerated deleveraging and strong near‑term ramps, highlighting Q2 adjusted EBITDA of $175M (Specialties $161.7M, Montana Renewables $17M, CMR $12.2M), >$90M cash from operations offset by roughly $70M of working capital build (David detailed ~$30M higher crude, ~$30M AR and ~$20M MRL build) and a ~$20M hedge headwind; restricted group leverage is now below 4x and management expects to surpass 3x next quarter after calling $100M of 2028 notes and repurchasing a $115M sale‑leaseback, with 10,000 bpd of fuel hedges through early 2028 (~$28/bbl CBOB in 2027). For Montana Renewables they cited index margins near $2.60/gal, ~ $40M of foregone Q2 margin from downtime, and an operational roadmap to run ~60M gallons SAF near term, ramp to 80–100M by year‑end, exceed 120M by spring 2027 and ultimately target ~200M gallons with 17,000 bpd throughput over the next two years (while capturing >$50M EBITDA at CMR before reconfiguration). They also signaled specialties momentum (7 consecutive quarters >20,000 bpd, volumes +5% YTD vs 2025, >20 price increases realized), a ~$50M high‑return growth CapEx pipeline primarily in 2027–28, and promised DOE/modification and full expansion/cost/funding details before the next call.Calumet Specialty Products Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
18
Very Negative
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.59B | 4.14B | 4.19B | 4.18B | 4.69B | 3.15B |
| Gross Profit | 301.50M | 245.70M | 230.80M | 451.70M | 351.70M | 142.90M |
| EBITDA | -27.30M | 238.40M | 164.50M | 418.20M | 104.30M | -1.40M |
| Net Income | -136.80M | -33.80M | -222.00M | 48.10M | -169.80M | -254.90M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.80B | 2.69B | 2.76B | 2.75B | 2.74B | 2.13B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 109.80M | 125.10M | 38.10M | 7.90M | 35.20M | 38.10M |
| Total Debt | 2.26B | 2.46B | 2.37B | 2.19B | 1.89B | 1.76B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.69B | 3.18B | 3.22B | 3.00B | 3.03B | 2.51B |
| Stockholders Equity | -1.14B | -732.70M | -712.80M | -491.60M | -533.60M | -388.90M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 150.40M | 56.60M | -123.10M | -286.70M | -435.60M | -126.90M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 223.00M | 108.90M | -46.40M | -14.90M | 100.60M | -44.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -73.10M | 44.10M | -76.70M | -271.80M | -286.00M | -82.80M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -190.70M | 6.20M | 154.30M | 266.20M | 98.70M | 139.30M |
Calumet Specialty Products Technical Analysis
Neutral
47.75
Price Trends
53.62
Negative
46.13
Positive
37.63
Positive
Market Momentum
0.07
Positive
33.85
Neutral
19.96
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CLMT, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 47.75 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 55.32, below the 50-day MA of 53.62, and above the 200-day MA of 37.63, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 33.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 19.96 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CLMT.
Calumet Specialty Products Risk Analysis
Calumet Specialty Products disclosed 46 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Calumet Specialty Products reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Calumet Specialty Products Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $20.66B | -56.49 | -3.36% | 5.44% | -11.13% | -245.92% | |
72 Outperform | $2.44B | 20.29 | 9.15% | 1.80% | 2.87% | 534.76% | |
70 Outperform | $7.26B | 16.41 | 7.42% | 5.29% | -4.30% | -46.24% | |
63 Neutral | $4.93B | -33.93 | 15.16% | 16.28% | 12.80% | 70.13% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
50 Neutral | $781.80M | -8.95 | -16.91% | 0.85% | -4.98% | -710.42% | |
47 Neutral | $2.43B | 45.90 | 85.17% | ― | -12.42% | ― |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
CLMT
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Calumet Specialty Products Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Calumet Specialty Boosts Credit Facility, Enhancing Liquidity
Positive
Sep 15, 2026
On September 11, 2026, Calumet, Inc. entered into an Eleventh Amendment to its Third Amended and Restated Credit Agreement, boosting lender commitments from $500 million to $600 million, subject to borrowing base limits. The larger facility enhanc...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Montana Renewables Unveils Capital-Efficient SAF Expansion Plan
Positive
Sep 1, 2026
On August 28, 2026, Montana Renewables and the U.S. Department of Energy amended their existing loan guarantee agreement to reflect a redesigned, more capital‑efficient expansion of the Great Falls renewable fuels facility. The project shift...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.