Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT)
NASDAQ:CLMT
Want to see CLMT full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Calumet Specialty Products
(NASDAQ:CLMT)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$38.00
▲(17.98% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/04/26
CLMT’s score reflects strong technical momentum and a constructive earnings-call outlook tied to Montana Renewables ramp and expected near-term cash flow improvement. These positives are tempered primarily by weak financial fundamentals—ongoing losses and a structurally stressed balance sheet with deeply negative equity—while valuation is only neutral given the negative P/E and no dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Cash generation turnaround
A sustained shift to positive free cash flow (~$85M TTM) materially strengthens the firm's ability to fund growth, service debt, and execute deleveraging without relying solely on capital markets. Over months, improving cash conversion increases financial flexibility versus prior years of negative OCF.
Negative Factors
Negative equity / balance-sheet strain
Deeply negative equity (~-$1.04B TTM) is a structural vulnerability that constrains strategic optionality, heightens refinancing and covenant risk, and limits the company's ability to absorb shocks or pursue growth without continued reliance on external financing or asset sales.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation turnaround
A sustained shift to positive free cash flow (~$85M TTM) materially strengthens the firm's ability to fund growth, service debt, and execute deleveraging without relying solely on capital markets. Over months, improving cash conversion increases financial flexibility versus prior years of negative OCF.
Read all positive factors
Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.15B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)911.73K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.14
Revenue Growth-0.11%
EPS Growth45.72%
CountryUS
Employees1,620
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-2.16
Shares Outstanding87,147,150
10 Day Avg. Volume782,683
30 Day Avg. Volume911,730
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.60
Price to Book (P/B)-2.35
Price to Sales (P/S)0.42
P/FCF Ratio30.46
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.95
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.72
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit12.46
Enterprise Value/Ebitda27.54
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$40.75Price Target Upside26.51% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)-1.44
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.24B
Calumet Specialty Products Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Calumet, Inc. manufactures, formulates, and markets slate of specialty branded products to various consumer-facing and industrial markets in North America and internationally. Its Specialty Products and Solutions segment offers various solvents, w...
How the Company Makes Money
Calumet makes money primarily by converting hydrocarbon feedstocks (e.g., crude oil and other petroleum-based feedstocks) into higher-value finished products and selling them to end markets through a mix of specialty product sales and fuels/refini...
Calumet Specialty Products Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive outlook: management highlighted a favorable macro margin environment (strong crack spreads and a supportive Set 2 RVO), successful completion and start-up of the Montana Renewables expansion, meaningful EBITDA improvement at Renewables, resilient specialties performance (six consecutive quarters >20k bpd and $54/boe specialties margin), and targeted hedging to de-risk high-margin fuels. Offsetting these positives were Q1 execution headwinds (Shreveport downtime, organic chloride contamination with ~750k barrels lost and >$30M of opportunity cost), temporary specialty EBITDA compression versus last year, hedge losses (~$6M realized) and working capital pressure from rapid price moves. Overall, the favorable market dynamics, strategic milestones, and remediation of operational issues suggest that highlights significantly outweigh the lowlights.Positive Updates
Strong Market Environment and Positioning
Calumet entered one of the strongest margin environments across traditional and renewable energy markets following the EPA Set 2 RVO. Management expects continued upside capture across fuels and specialties as commodity spreads widened and industry utilization improves.
Negative Updates
Q1 Adjusted EBITDA Decline vs Prior Year
Adjusted EBITDA was $50.1 million in Q1 2026 versus $55.0 million in Q1 2025, a decline of approximately 8.9%, largely attributed to operational downtime at Shreveport and related impacts.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Market Environment and Positioning
Calumet entered one of the strongest margin environments across traditional and renewable energy markets following the EPA Set 2 RVO. Management expects continued upside capture across fuels and specialties as commodity spreads widened and industry utilization improves.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated that Q2 should see materially stronger cash flow as Montana Renewables ramps post‑MaxSAF 150 and fuels/spreads remain elevated, citing Q1 results of $50.1M adjusted EBITDA (with tax attributes) — $44.3M from Specialties, $12.6M from Performance Brands and $10.2M from Montana/Renewables (MRL $8.8M on a Calumet‑owned 87% basis) — with Specialty volumes >20,000 bpd for a sixth consecutive quarter; they noted a Shreveport disruption cost ~750,000 barrels and ≈$30M of lost opportunity (plant ran ~50,000 bpd in April) and MRL spent ≈$15M CapEx in Q1 (expecting the site to generate $30–50M annual EBITDA in a normal environment). Forward metrics include a 2026 full‑year 2:1:1 crack north of $42/ bbl, renewable diesel index >$3/gal at quarter end (long‑run equilibrium >$2/gal), SAF contractual premiums of $1–$2/gal and a 4–5x SAF annual run‑rate uplift from the expansion; hedges cover ~10,000 bpd (~25% of fuel) for 2026 at ≈$22/ bbl (incurring ≈$6M realized hedge losses in Q1) plus ~10,000 bpd for 2027 at ≈$27/ bbl, and management reiterated using cash (including a recent $150M tack‑on) to accelerate deleveraging as call protection eases in July.Calumet Specialty Products Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
38
Negative
Balance Sheet
22
Negative
Cash Flow
57
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.17B | 4.14B | 4.19B | 4.18B | 4.69B | 3.15B |
| Gross Profit | 239.60M | 245.70M | 230.80M | 451.70M | 351.70M | 142.90M |
| EBITDA | 108.40M | 238.40M | 164.50M | 418.20M | 104.30M | 15.60M |
| Net Income | -188.80M | -33.80M | -222.00M | 48.10M | -169.80M | -254.90M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.75B | 2.69B | 2.76B | 2.75B | 2.74B | 2.13B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 138.60M | 125.10M | 38.10M | 7.90M | 35.20M | 38.10M |
| Total Debt | 32.60M | 381.80M | 2.37B | 2.19B | 1.89B | 1.76B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.55B | 3.18B | 3.22B | 3.00B | 3.03B | 2.51B |
| Stockholders Equity | -1.04B | -732.70M | -712.80M | -491.60M | -533.60M | -388.90M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 85.40M | 56.60M | -123.10M | -286.70M | -435.60M | -126.90M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 133.30M | 108.90M | -46.40M | -14.90M | 100.60M | -44.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -47.40M | 44.10M | -76.70M | -271.80M | -286.00M | -82.80M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -110.70M | 6.20M | 154.30M | 266.20M | 98.70M | 139.30M |
Calumet Specialty Products Technical Analysis
Positive
32.21
Price Trends
33.18
Positive
29.47
Positive
24.04
Positive
Market Momentum
1.03
Negative
71.33
Negative
85.18
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CLMT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 32.21 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 33.58, below the 50-day MA of 33.18, and above the 200-day MA of 24.04, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 71.33 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.18 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CLMT.
Calumet Specialty Products Risk Analysis
Calumet Specialty Products disclosed 46 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Calumet Specialty Products reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Calumet Specialty Products Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $1.78B | 19.11 | 10.68% | 13.84% | 0.87% | 770.57% | |
68 Neutral | $2.25B | 9.62 | 13.10% | 17.48% | 22.47% | -56.03% | |
63 Neutral | $760.83M | -35.96 | -3.12% | 11.72% | 11.44% | -157.45% | |
62 Neutral | $2.93B | 9.28 | 15.50% | ― | 52.41% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
61 Neutral | $3.15B | ― | 21.70% | ― | -0.11% | 45.72% | |
60 Neutral | $2.50B | -3.44 | -33.22% | ― | -15.43% | -3103.48% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
CLMT
Calumet Specialty Products
37.37
24.14
182.46%
KRP
Kimbell Royalty Partners
15.27
3.21
26.62%
TALO
Talos Energy
15.18
7.01
85.80%
VTS
Vitesse Energy, Inc.
17.65
-2.39
-11.93%
MNR
Mach Natural Resources LP
13.43
2.06
18.10%
BKV
BKV Corporation
26.92
4.92
22.36%
Calumet Specialty Products Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Calumet Stockholders Approve Directors, Pay and Auditor Plans
Positive
Jun 3, 2026
On June 2, 2026, Calumet, Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where shareholders elected three Class II directors—Todd Borgmann, Daniel J. Sajkowski and Bradford T. Sanders—to serve until the 2029 Annual Meeting. The vot...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Calumet Announces Board Transition as Longtime Director Retires
Neutral
Mar 25, 2026
On March 23, 2026, Calumet, Inc. board member Jennifer G. Straumins informed the board she would not stand for re-election and would retire at the end of her term at the 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, a decision the company said was not rela...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Calumet Completes Senior Notes Offering to Enhance Liquidity
Positive
Mar 17, 2026
On March 17, 2026, Calumet’s subsidiaries Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P. and Calumet Finance Corp. completed a $150 million private placement of 9.75% Senior Notes due 2031 at 105% of par, generating roughly $154.9 million in net ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Calumet Prices New Senior Notes to Refinance Credit Facility
Positive
Mar 13, 2026
On March 12, 2026, Calumet’s subsidiaries Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P. and Calumet Finance Corp. priced a $150 million private placement of 9.75% Senior Notes due 2031 at 105% of par, with closing expected on March 17, 2026, as ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Calumet Specialty Products Plans Additional Senior Notes Offering
Positive
Mar 12, 2026
On March 12, 2026, Calumet, Inc. said its subsidiaries Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P. and Calumet Finance Corp. plan, subject to market conditions, to privately place $150 million of additional 9.75% senior notes due 2031 to eligible in...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.