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Century Communities (CCS)
NYSE:CCS

Century Communities (CCS) AI Stock Analysis

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Century Communities

(NYSE:CCS)

Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$59.00
▲(8.12%Upside)
Century Communities' strong valuation metrics and stable profitability are offset by technical weakness and challenges from economic uncertainties. The company's prudent balance sheet and ability to manage costs provide some confidence, but negative cash flow and reduced guidance highlight areas of concern.
Positive Factors
Profit and Margin Growth
CCS believes gross margins can remain in the low 20s from a historical high-teens level due to enhanced scale, and volumes could grow 30%+ without much additional fixed G&A.
Stock Buyback
CCS repurchased $31M in shares during 4Q, which was unexpected.
Negative Factors
Disappointing Outlook
The 2025 outlook is viewed as somewhat disappointing, and estimates are being lowered.

Century Communities (CCS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Century Communities Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCentury Communities, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, development, construction, marketing, and sale of single-family attached and detached homes. It is also involved in the entitlement and development of the underlying land; and provision of mortgage, title, and insurance services to its home buyers. The company offers homes under the Century Communities and Century Complete brands. It sells homes through its sales representatives, retail studios, and internet, as well as through independent real estate brokers in 17 states in the United States. Century Communities, Inc. was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Greenwood Village, Colorado.
How the Company Makes MoneyCentury Communities generates revenue primarily through the sale of homes across various U.S. markets. The company's key revenue streams include the sale of single-family homes, townhomes, and condominiums. Revenue is recognized when homes are delivered to buyers and title has transferred. Additionally, Century Communities may earn income through joint ventures and partnerships with other real estate developers or financial institutions, as well as through the sale of land and development rights. The company's earnings are influenced by factors such as housing market demand, economic conditions, interest rates, and government policies affecting the real estate sector.

Century Communities Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 23, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: -8.67%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
While Century Communities has managed to maintain stable gross margins and grow its community count, the company faces significant challenges such as lower absorption rates, decreased home sales revenue, and increased incentive levels due to economic uncertainties and interest rate volatility. These issues have led to a reduction in full-year guidance, indicating a challenging market environment.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Stable Homebuilding Gross Margins
Century Communities maintained relatively stable homebuilding gross margins of 20.1%, excluding purchase price accounting, which eased by only 80 basis points sequentially.
Community Count Growth
The company ended the first quarter with a community count of 318, which is a 26% increase on a year-over-year basis. The community count is expected to increase in the mid-single-digit percentage range by year-end 2025.
Successful Cost Management
Century Communities managed to keep direct construction and finished lot costs roughly flat on a sequential basis, with a 4% decline in direct construction costs year-over-year.
Recognition for Trustworthiness
Century Communities was selected for the third year in a row to Newsweek's list of America's most trustworthy companies.
Negative Updates
Lower Absorption Rates and Consumer Confidence
The absorption rate in the first quarter was weaker than expected due to economic uncertainty, interest rate volatility, and eroding consumer confidence, leading to elongated sales cycles.
Decline in Home Sales Revenue
Home sales revenues for the first quarter were $884 million, down 4% compared to the prior year, impacted by lower deliveries and average sales price.
Increased Incentive Levels
Incentives on closed homes increased to approximately 900 basis points in the first quarter, up from about 800 basis points in the fourth quarter of 2024, impacting gross margins.
Reduced Full-Year Guidance
Due to ongoing economic uncertainty and declining consumer confidence, the full-year home delivery guidance was reduced to 10,400 to 11,000 homes, with anticipated home sales revenue of $4 to $4.2 billion.
Company Guidance
During Century Communities' first-quarter 2025 earnings call, the company provided guidance amidst challenging market conditions characterized by economic uncertainty, interest rate volatility, and eroding consumer confidence. Despite these headwinds, the company delivered 2,284 homes, only 3% below the previous year, with an average sales price decline of 1%. Net new contracts reached 2,692 homes, a 6% decrease from the prior year but a 33% increase over the first quarter of 2023, with an absorption pace averaging 2.8. Century Communities forecasted second-quarter deliveries of 2,300 to 2,500 homes and expected gross margins to ease due to increased incentives projected to rise by up to 200 basis points. The company maintained a community count of 318, up 26% year-over-year, with plans to grow deliveries by approximately 10% annually, leveraging its lot pipeline. Despite the challenges, the company was recognized on Newsweek's list of America's most trustworthy companies, reflecting its commitment to delivering quality homes.

Century Communities Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Century Communities shows strong profitability and a solid equity base but faces challenges with negative cash flow due to high capital expenditures. The balance sheet is stable with reasonable leverage, but cash management needs attention to sustain financial health.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Century Communities' TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) income statement shows a resilient performance despite a small decrease in total revenue compared to the previous year. The gross profit margin is strong at 21.8%, and the net profit margin is healthy at 7.1%. However, there is a slight decline in EBIT and EBITDA margins, indicating some pressure on operating efficiency. The revenue growth rate has turned negative, although the company managed to maintain decent profitability metrics.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a solid equity base with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.43, indicating moderate leverage. The return on equity (ROE) is strong at 12.0%, suggesting efficient use of equity to generate profits. However, the equity ratio is relatively high at 56.6%, highlighting a conservative capital structure with a substantial proportion of assets financed by equity rather than debt. The stability is commendable, though there is a need to monitor debt levels closely.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Cash flow analysis reveals a challenging year for Century Communities, with negative free cash flow due to significant capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low, suggesting limited cash conversion from earnings. Additionally, the free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, which could be concerning if it persists. However, historical positive cash flow metrics indicate potential for recovery.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
4.35B4.40B3.69B4.51B4.22B3.16B
Gross Profit
933.43M962.76M802.97M1.14B1.05B616.33M
EBIT
410.29M446.28M355.63M704.90M658.76M263.65M
EBITDA
435.53M464.35M371.43M716.08M669.63M285.59M
Net Income Common Stockholders
308.87M333.82M259.22M525.13M498.50M206.16M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
100.34M150.00M226.15M296.72M316.31M394.00M
Total Assets
4.56B4.53B4.14B3.77B3.50B2.85B
Total Debt
1.56B1.48B1.30B1.22B1.35B1.15B
Net Debt
1.46B1.33B1.08B920.31M1.03B759.92M
Total Liabilities
1.98B1.91B1.75B1.62B1.73B1.56B
Stockholders Equity
2.58B2.62B2.39B2.15B1.76B1.28B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-69.53M86.72M-90.05M264.65M-212.73M332.06M
Operating Cash Flow
27.57M125.69M41.63M315.35M-201.15M340.58M
Investing Cash Flow
-172.19M-232.69M-131.98M-54.26M-6.48M-8.40M
Financing Cash Flow
93.58M40.31M23.86M-274.83M131.79M7.39M

Century Communities Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price54.57
Price Trends
50DMA
56.19
Negative
100DMA
63.98
Negative
200DMA
76.70
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.66
Negative
RSI
50.49
Neutral
STOCH
74.43
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CCS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 54.57 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 53.56, below the 50-day MA of 56.19, and below the 200-day MA of 76.70, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.66 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.49 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.43 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CCS.

Century Communities Risk Analysis

Century Communities disclosed 83 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Century Communities reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Century Communities Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
TPTPH
78
Outperform
$2.87B6.9313.28%10.82%19.34%
78
Outperform
$2.74B7.5224.29%21.22%24.90%
MHMHO
75
Outperform
$3.01B5.8119.02%8.68%8.39%
DFDFH
74
Outperform
$2.29B7.1826.25%21.18%11.40%
CCCCS
66
Neutral
$1.71B5.7812.36%2.08%10.75%8.31%
63
Neutral
$6.98B11.412.80%4.24%2.68%-24.94%
58
Neutral
$1.26B6.779.36%-4.37%-3.17%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CCS
Century Communities
54.57
-26.01
-32.28%
MHO
M/I Homes
109.88
-13.36
-10.84%
TPH
Tri Pointe
31.10
-6.43
-17.13%
LGIH
LGI Homes
52.54
-41.09
-43.89%
GRBK
Green Brick Partners
60.77
3.62
6.33%
DFH
Dream Finders Homes
23.02
-3.95
-14.65%

Century Communities Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Century Communities Holds Annual Stockholders Meeting
Neutral
May 8, 2025

On May 7, 2025, Century Communities, Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where 92.9% of the company’s outstanding shares were represented. During the meeting, stockholders elected seven directors, ratified the appointment of Ernst & Young LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025, and approved the executive compensation of the company’s named executive officers.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.