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Carrier Global (CARR)
NYSE:CARR

Carrier Global (CARR) AI Stock Analysis

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Carrier Global

(NYSE:CARR)

Rating:81Outperform
Price Target:
$82.00
â–²(16.36%Upside)
Carrier Global's strong financial performance, positive technical indicators, and optimistic earnings call contribute to a solid overall stock score. While valuation suggests fair pricing with moderate yield, the company's strategic initiatives and recent corporate actions enhance its growth potential.
Positive Factors
Growth Initiatives
CARR's transformed portfolio and multi-pronged growth initiatives could support accelerating organic growth.
Margin Expansion
The company has exceeded annual margin expansion expectations, moving from 13.6% EBIT margin in 2022 to nearly 16% in 2024.
Negative Factors
Market Skepticism
Shares largely traded in line with broader coverage, signaling market skepticism.
Organic Target Miss
CARR missed the 6-8% organic target provided at its 2022 Investor Day, generating just around 4% due to market declines in Transport, APAC, and EU heat pumps post Viessmann deal.

Carrier Global (CARR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Carrier Global Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCarrier Global Corporation provides heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC), refrigeration, fire, security, and building automation technologies worldwide. It operates through three segments: HVAC, Refrigeration, and Fire & Security. The HVAC segment provides products, controls, services, and solutions to meet the heating, cooling, and ventilation needs of residential and commercial customers. Its products include air conditioners, heating systems, controls, and aftermarket components, as well as aftermarket repair and maintenance services and building automation solutions. The Refrigeration segment offers transport refrigeration and monitoring products and services, as well as digital solutions for trucks, trailers, shipping containers, intermodal applications, food retail, and warehouse cooling; and commercial refrigeration solutions, such as refrigerated cabinets, freezers, systems, and controls. The Fire & Security segment provides various residential, commercial, and industrial technologies, including fire, flame, gas, smoke, and carbon monoxide detection; portable fire extinguishers; fire suppression systems; intruder alarms; access control systems; video management systems; and electronic controls. Its other fire and security service offerings comprise audit, design, installation, and system integration, as well as aftermarket maintenance and repair and monitoring services. The company offers its products under the Autronica, Det-Tronics, Edwards, Fireye, GST, Kidde, LenelS2, Marioff, Onity, and Supra; Carrier, Automated Logic, Bryant, CIAT, Day & Night, Heil, NORESCO, and Riello; and Carrier Commercial Refrigeration, Carrier Transicold, and Sensitech brands. The company was incorporated in 2019 and is headquartered in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida.
How the Company Makes MoneyCarrier Global generates revenue primarily through the sale of HVAC systems, which cater to both residential and commercial customers. The company also earns significant income from its refrigeration segment, offering products that serve the food retail and transport industries. Additionally, Carrier's fire and security business provides integrated solutions that contribute to its revenue streams. The company benefits from a strong network of distributors and dealers, as well as strategic partnerships with building and construction firms, which help drive sales and expand its market reach. Carrier also offers aftermarket services and solutions, such as maintenance and repair, which create recurring revenue opportunities.

Carrier Global Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Revenue by Segment
Revenue by Segment
Shows how much each business segment contributes to total sales, indicating the company's diversification and potential growth areas.
Chart InsightsCarrier Global's HVAC segment is experiencing robust growth, driven by strategic initiatives and strong demand in Climate Solutions and Transportation, as highlighted in the latest earnings call. Despite challenges in the light commercial segment and Asia, the company is mitigating tariff impacts through pricing strategies. The Refrigeration and Fire and Security segments show mixed performance, with notable declines in recent quarters. Carrier's increased EPS guidance and strong cash flow generation underscore its resilience and strategic focus, positioning it well for continued growth in 2025.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Carrier Global Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 01, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 12.68%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 24, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected a strong start to the year with significant growth in several segments, robust EPS growth, and a successful partnership with Google. However, challenges remain in the light commercial segment and in Asia, and there are ongoing tariff concerns. Overall, the highlights slightly outweigh the lowlights, given the strategic initiatives and positive financial outlook.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Start to the Year
Orders were up high single digits with double-digit orders growth in Climate Solutions, Europe and Transportation. Total company backlog increased by about 10% year-over-year and 15% sequentially.
Financial Performance
The company drove 27% adjusted EPS growth on 2% organic growth. Free cash flow was $420 million, and $1.5 billion was returned to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.
Segment Performance
Commercial ex NORESCO and residential strength in the Americas with organic sales up around 20%. Data center segment expected to double to $1 billion this year, with strong performance in Q1.
Partnership and Innovation
New partnership with Google to enhance grid resilience and smarter energy management. Introduction of Carrier's first air-cooled commercial heat pump in Europe.
Guidance Increase
Full year adjusted EPS guide increased to $3 to $3.10, which is up about 20% year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Challenges in Light Commercial Segment
Light Commercial sales were down around 35% with a tough compare versus prior year. Guidance for the full year decreased to down low double digits.
Weakness in Asia
Organic sales were down 6% in the Asia, Middle East, and Africa segment, driven by continued weakness in residential China and parts of Southeast Asia.
Tariff Challenges
The company is fully mitigating a $300 million tariff exposure through pricing actions.
Legacy Business Performance
Carrier's legacy residential and light commercial business in Europe operating at low single-digit operating margins.
Company Guidance
During Carrier's First Quarter 2025 earnings call, the company provided an optimistic outlook, backed by strong financial performance and strategic initiatives. Orders increased by high single digits, with double-digit growth in Climate Solutions, Europe, and Transportation. Sales in Climate Solutions America saw a 20% rise in both residential and commercial sectors. The company reported a total backlog increase of approximately 10% year-over-year and 15% sequentially. Notably, Carrier achieved a 27% growth in adjusted EPS on 2% organic growth, alongside generating $420 million in free cash flow. The company returned about $1.5 billion to shareholders and paid down $1.2 billion in debt. For the full year 2025, Carrier increased its adjusted EPS guidance to $3 to $3.10, reflecting a 20% year-over-year growth, driven by strong productivity, pricing strategies to mitigate $300 million in tariff exposure, and a mid-single-digit organic sales growth expectation.

Carrier Global Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Carrier Global demonstrates strong financial health with consistent revenue and profit growth, robust profitability margins, and a balanced capital structure. The income statement is particularly strong, though cash flow ratios are modest. Recent improvements in cash flow management are promising, but caution is advised regarding debt levels.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Carrier Global exhibits strong income statement metrics, highlighted by a consistent growth in revenue and net income over the years. The TTM Gross Profit Margin stands at approximately 27.6%, and the Net Profit Margin is an impressive 26.01%, indicating robust profitability. The company's revenue growth from 2024 to 2025 was 2.46%, showing stable growth. EBIT and EBITDA margins are solid at 12.58% and 17.35% respectively, reflecting operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The balance sheet of Carrier Global is stable with a Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 0.81, which is reasonable for the industry. The Return on Equity (ROE) for the TTM is high at 42.21%, reflecting effective use of equity. The Equity Ratio stands at 38.96%, which suggests a balanced capital structure. However, the total debt is significant, which could pose risks if interest rates rise.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Carrier Global's cash flow statements reveal a moderate position. The TTM Free Cash Flow to Net Income ratio is 0.09, indicating modest cash conversion from profits. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income ratio is 0.17, showing that operational cash generation is below net income levels. However, there is a significant improvement in free cash flow from 2024 to TTM, showcasing better cash management.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
23.04B22.49B22.10B20.42B20.61B17.46B
Gross Profit
6.36B5.98B6.38B5.46B5.98B5.11B
EBIT
2.90B2.65B2.30B2.41B2.65B2.10B
EBITDA
4.00B4.09B2.99B2.90B2.91B2.41B
Net Income Common Stockholders
5.75B5.60B1.35B3.53B1.66B1.98B
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.70B3.97B10.02B3.52B2.99B3.12B
Total Assets
36.45B37.40B32.82B26.09B26.17B25.09B
Total Debt
11.62B12.71B14.68B9.37B10.22B11.03B
Net Debt
9.92B8.74B4.67B5.85B7.24B7.92B
Total Liabilities
22.25B23.01B23.82B18.01B19.08B18.52B
Stockholders Equity
13.86B14.08B8.68B7.76B6.77B6.25B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
528.00M44.00M2.14B1.39B1.89B1.38B
Operating Cash Flow
1.01B563.00M2.61B1.74B2.24B1.69B
Investing Cash Flow
9.03B-2.02B-660.00M1.75B-692.00M1.11B
Financing Cash Flow
-9.76B-4.64B4.61B-2.93B-1.56B-681.00M

Carrier Global Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price70.47
Price Trends
50DMA
68.24
Positive
100DMA
66.56
Positive
200DMA
70.39
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.27
Positive
RSI
48.99
Neutral
STOCH
16.47
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CARR, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 70.47 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 71.22, above the 50-day MA of 68.24, and above the 200-day MA of 70.39, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.27 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.99 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.47 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CARR.

Carrier Global Risk Analysis

Carrier Global disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Carrier Global reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Carrier Global Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
81
Outperform
$60.41B16.1725.69%1.28%0.14%202.13%
TTTT
81
Outperform
$93.60B34.9238.45%0.90%11.43%28.49%
CSCSL
78
Outperform
$15.34B9.6933.11%1.13%-0.14%135.52%
JCJCI
74
Outperform
$67.29B27.2714.92%1.45%-8.39%51.56%
LILII
74
Outperform
$19.52B24.52131.48%0.84%7.78%30.10%
67
Neutral
$5.87B37.8719.85%0.55%8.24%-11.66%
64
Neutral
$10.24B15.154.04%2.02%2.54%-26.43%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CARR
Carrier Global
71.78
7.54
11.74%
AAON
Aaon
72.44
-7.25
-9.10%
CSL
Carlisle Companies
364.26
-57.96
-13.73%
TT
Trane Technologies
426.92
91.95
27.45%
JCI
Johnson Controls
103.35
35.78
52.95%
LII
Lennox International
564.18
21.25
3.91%

Carrier Global Corporate Events

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
Carrier Global Repurchases 4.2 Million Shares for $300M
Positive
Jun 5, 2025

On June 5, 2025, Carrier Global Corporation repurchased over 4.2 million shares of its common stock from Viessmann Traeger HoldCo GmbH for $300 million, marking a strategic move under its existing share repurchase authorization. This transaction, involving a slight discount from the market price, reflects a diversification strategy by Maximilian Viessmann, who remains a significant shareholder and board member, expressing confidence in Carrier’s leadership and growth prospects.

The most recent analyst rating on (CARR) stock is a Hold with a $72.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carrier Global stock, see the CARR Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Carrier Global Announces Segment Restructuring and Growth
Positive
May 1, 2025

On May 1, 2025, Carrier Global announced a restructuring of its reportable segments to better align with its business management and performance assessment, introducing four new segments focused on climate solutions across different regions and transportation. The company also reported strong financial results for the first quarter of 2025, with a notable increase in adjusted earnings per share and operating margins despite a slight decline in net sales. This restructuring and financial performance position Carrier for accelerated growth, supported by increased orders and backlogs, and an updated full-year guidance.

Executive/Board Changes
Carrier Global Announces Resignation of Key Executive
Neutral
Apr 17, 2025

On April 16, 2025, Carrier Global Corporation announced the resignation of Kyle Crockett, Vice President, Controller, and Chief Accounting Officer, effective around May 2, 2025. Patrick Goris, the Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, will serve as interim Controller starting May 2, 2025, while the company searches for a permanent replacement.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Carrier Global Holds Annual Meeting, Elects Directors
Neutral
Apr 11, 2025

Carrier Global held its Annual Meeting on April 9, 2025, where a quorum of 788,861,687 shares was present. During the meeting, directors were elected, executive compensation was approved, an amendment to the Long-Term Incentive Plan was passed, and PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP was ratified as the independent auditor for 2025. However, a proposal for a lobbying transparency report was not approved.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.