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Carrier Global
(NYSE:CARR)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$59.00
▲(0.44% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/06/26
The score is driven primarily by stable financial fundamentals (improving leverage and strong recent free cash flow) and a positive earnings-call outlook (raised guidance, strong orders/backlog, and accelerating data-center demand). These positives are tempered by weak-to-neutral technical momentum and a stretched valuation (high P/E with only a modest dividend yield), plus ongoing margin and regional headwinds noted on the call.
Positive Factors
Order and backlog momentum
Strong orders and a record backlog provide meaningful revenue visibility across upcoming periods. Commercial HVAC orders and overall demand are expanding, supporting production planning, customer retention, and sustained growth rather than relying solely on spot equipment sales.
Negative Factors
Margin pressure
Margin pressure threatens the earnings benefit from Carrier’s strong volume and order growth. Mix effects, spending, and productivity offsets can limit profit conversion, while persistent pressure would reduce flexibility for investment and weaken the durability of earnings expansion.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Order and backlog momentum
Strong orders and a record backlog provide meaningful revenue visibility across upcoming periods. Commercial HVAC orders and overall demand are expanding, supporting production planning, customer retention, and sustained growth rather than relying solely on spot equipment sales.
Read all positive factors
Carrier Global Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Operating Income by Segment
Reveals profitability across different business segments, highlighting which areas drive earnings and where there might be challenges or opportunities for improvement.
Reveals profitability across different business segments, highlighting which areas drive earnings and where there might be challenges or opportunities for improvement.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCarrier Global (CARR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$45.34B
Dividend Yield1.72%
Average Volume (3M)6.26M
Price to Earnings (P/E)37.8
Beta (1Y)1.09
Revenue Growth-1.58%
EPS Growth-43.59%
CountryUS
Employees47,000
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryIndustrial - Machinery
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.45
Shares Outstanding824,325,100
10 Day Avg. Volume4,619,259
30 Day Avg. Volume6,255,177
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.42
Price to Book (P/B)3.21
Price to Sales (P/S)2.04
P/FCF Ratio26.13
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.60
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.29
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit13.51
Enterprise Value/Ebitda23.78
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$71.91Price Target Upside22.42% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)2.89
Revenue Forecast (FY)$23.31B
Carrier Global Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Carrier Global Corporation is a worldwide provider of advanced technological solutions covering heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC), refrigeration, fire safety, security, and intelligent building automation. Its operations are struct...
How the Company Makes Money
Carrier makes money primarily by selling HVAC, refrigeration, and building-controls equipment and by providing recurring services tied to its installed base. Key revenue streams include: (1) Equipment sales: revenue from manufacturing and selling ...
Carrier Global Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 28, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational momentum: materially better‑than‑expected orders, record backlog, raised guidance for sales, profit and EPS, accelerated data center outlook, solid cash generation and strategic M&A. These positives were balanced against margin pressures from unfavorable mix, tariff timing impacts, investments and specific regional/headline weaknesses (China Resi and Truck & Trailer). Management laid out concrete actions (new capacity, cost discipline in Europe, pricing focus) to address challenges. Overall the positive growth trajectory, backlog strength and cash flow supported a constructive outlook despite near‑term margin headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong Orders and Record Backlog
Total company orders up about 40% in 2Q; commercial HVAC orders up ~65%; data center orders ~4x year‑over‑year. Total company backlog north of $8 billion, up ~40% versus last year and up ~20% sequentially.
Negative Updates
Margin Pressure and Disappointing Segment Margins
Management noted segment margins were disappointing in 2Q: adjusted EPS declined ~7% YoY driven by lower operating profit and higher effective tax rate. Unfavorable mix and selling/investment spending offset volume and productivity gains.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Orders and Record Backlog
Total company orders up about 40% in 2Q; commercial HVAC orders up ~65%; data center orders ~4x year‑over‑year. Total company backlog north of $8 billion, up ~40% versus last year and up ~20% sequentially.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Carrier raised its 2026 outlook with full‑year sales now expected to be roughly $23 billion (organic growth mid‑ to high‑single digits), data center revenue increased to about $2.0 billion (from a prior $1.5B), adjusted operating profit pegged at ~ $3.5 billion and adjusted EPS ~ $2.90 (up from $2.80 prior guide); second‑half operating profit and EPS are each expected to be up ~50% year‑over‑year. Near‑term guide calls for Q3 revenue just below $6.0 billion, ~10% organic growth, ~16.5% operating margin, a ~24% tax rate and about $0.75 of adjusted EPS; full‑year CapEx is now expected to be ~$600 million (about $100M higher) while free cash flow guidance is unchanged and share repurchases remain $1.5 billion. Management noted headwinds including a ~$125 million revenue impact from the NORESCO exit (≈$0.05 EPS), roughly $200 million of sales dropping out versus prior guide, ~ $100M of incremental investments this year, a Q2 backlog north of $8 billion (orders up ~40%, backlog +~40% YoY and +20% sequentially), and segment callouts such as CSA Resi/Light Commercial now expected to grow about high‑single digits and CSE Resi/Light Commercial low single digits.Carrier Global Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
68
Positive
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 22.11B | 21.75B | 22.49B | 18.95B | 17.29B | 20.61B |
| Gross Profit | 5.38B | 5.62B | 5.98B | 5.16B | 4.30B | 5.98B |
| EBITDA | 3.06B | 3.53B | 4.09B | 2.80B | 4.45B | 2.69B |
| Net Income | 1.22B | 1.48B | 5.60B | 1.35B | 3.53B | 1.66B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 37.37B | 37.19B | 37.40B | 32.82B | 26.09B | 26.17B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.34B | 1.55B | 3.97B | 9.85B | 3.52B | 2.99B |
| Total Debt | 12.39B | 12.67B | 12.71B | 14.63B | 9.37B | 10.22B |
| Total Liabilities | 23.90B | 23.06B | 23.01B | 23.82B | 18.01B | 19.08B |
| Stockholders Equity | 13.15B | 13.80B | 14.08B | 8.68B | 7.76B | 6.77B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.90B | 1.70B | 44.00M | 2.17B | 1.43B | 1.89B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.36B | 2.09B | 563.00M | 2.61B | 1.74B | 2.24B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -465.00M | -343.00M | -2.02B | -660.00M | 1.75B | -692.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.28B | -4.67B | -4.64B | 4.61B | -2.93B | -1.56B |
Carrier Global Technical Analysis
Negative
58.74
Price Trends
57.69
Negative
62.89
Negative
61.46
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.74
Negative
43.22
Neutral
36.95
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CARR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 58.74 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 55.28, above the 50-day MA of 57.69, and below the 200-day MA of 61.46, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.74 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 43.22 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.95 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CARR.
Carrier Global Risk Analysis
Carrier Global disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Carrier Global reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Carrier Global Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $90.07B | 35.18 | 12.69% | 1.37% | 4.82% | -1.66% | |
73 Outperform | $100.97B | 34.50 | 34.49% | 0.89% | 7.04% | 4.58% | |
66 Neutral | $45.34B | 37.85 | 8.89% | 1.72% | -1.58% | -43.59% | |
65 Neutral | $12.36B | 16.13 | 65.30% | 1.49% | -2.11% | -5.59% | |
65 Neutral | $7.92B | 55.75 | 12.64% | ― | 29.47% | -23.92% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
53 Neutral | $6.08B | 38.01 | 17.21% | 0.54% | 53.53% | 29.55% |
* Industrials Sector Average
CARR
Carrier Global
55.00
-1.80
-3.16%
AAON
Aaon
73.73
-26.80
-26.66%
EMR
Emerson Electric Company
161.47
33.14
25.82%
TT
Trane Technologies
458.89
44.42
10.72%
LII
Lennox International
357.73
-170.78
-32.31%
MOD
Modine
148.86
-3.69
-2.42%
Carrier Global Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Carrier Global appoints AI-focused executive to board
Positive
Jul 24, 2026
On July 24, 2026, Carrier Global Corporation appointed Neil Barua, President and CEO of PTC Inc., to its Board of Directors, effective immediately, with his term running until the 2027 Annual Meeting of Shareowners. Barua will serve on the Technol...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.