Carrier Global (CARR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $60.41B
• Dividend Yield: 1.28%
• Average Volume (3M): 4.91M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 16.2
• Beta (1Y): 1.33
• Revenue Growth: 0.14%
• EPS Growth: 202.13%
• Country: US
• Employees: 48,000
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Construction
• EPS (TTM): 0.65
• Shares Outstanding: 857,309,900
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 5,220,547
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,910,382
• PEG Ratio: 0.08
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.48
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 25.03
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.67
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.43
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.39
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.60
• 1Y Price Target: $83.21
• Price Target Upside: 18.08% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 15

• Rating: 81 Outperform
• Price Target: $82.00 ▲(16.36%Upside)

Carrier Global's strong financial performance, positive technical indicators, and optimistic earnings call contribute to a solid overall stock score. While valuation suggests fair pricing with moderate yield, the company's strategic initiatives and recent corporate actions enhance its growth potential.

Positive Factors

Growth Initiatives

CARR's transformed portfolio and multi-pronged growth initiatives could support accelerating organic growth.

Margin Expansion

The company has exceeded annual margin expansion expectations, moving from 13.6% EBIT margin in 2022 to nearly 16% in 2024.

Negative Factors

Market Skepticism

Shares largely traded in line with broader coverage, signaling market skepticism.

Organic Target Miss

CARR missed the 6-8% organic target provided at its 2022 Investor Day, generating just around 4% due to market declines in Transport, APAC, and EU heat pumps post Viessmann deal.

Carrier Global Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Carrier Global Corporation provides heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC), refrigeration, fire, security, and building automation technologies worldwide. It operates through three segments: HVAC, Refrigeration, and Fire & Security. The HVAC segment provides products, controls, services, and solutions to meet the heating, cooling, and ventilation needs of residential and commercial customers. Its products include air conditioners, heating systems, controls, and aftermarket components, as well as aftermarket repair and maintenance services and building automation solutions. The Refrigeration segment offers transport refrigeration and monitoring products and services, as well as digital solutions for trucks, trailers, shipping containers, intermodal applications, food retail, and warehouse cooling; and commercial refrigeration solutions, such as refrigerated cabinets, freezers, systems, and controls. The Fire & Security segment provides various residential, commercial, and industrial technologies, including fire, flame, gas, smoke, and carbon monoxide detection; portable fire extinguishers; fire suppression systems; intruder alarms; access control systems; video management systems; and electronic controls. Its other fire and security service offerings comprise audit, design, installation, and system integration, as well as aftermarket maintenance and repair and monitoring services. The company offers its products under the Autronica, Det-Tronics, Edwards, Fireye, GST, Kidde, LenelS2, Marioff, Onity, and Supra; Carrier, Automated Logic, Bryant, CIAT, Day & Night, Heil, NORESCO, and Riello; and Carrier Commercial Refrigeration, Carrier Transicold, and Sensitech brands. The company was incorporated in 2019 and is headquartered in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida.

How the Company Makes Money

Carrier Global generates revenue primarily through the sale of HVAC systems, which cater to both residential and commercial customers. The company also earns significant income from its refrigeration segment, offering products that serve the food retail and transport industries. Additionally, Carrier's fire and security business provides integrated solutions that contribute to its revenue streams. The company benefits from a strong network of distributors and dealers, as well as strategic partnerships with building and construction firms, which help drive sales and expand its market reach. Carrier also offers aftermarket services and solutions, such as maintenance and repair, which create recurring revenue opportunities.

Carrier Global Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Carrier Global demonstrates strong financial health with consistent revenue and profit growth, robust profitability margins, and a balanced capital structure. The income statement is particularly strong, though cash flow ratios are modest. Recent improvements in cash flow management are promising, but caution is advised regarding debt levels.

Income Statement

Carrier Global exhibits strong income statement metrics, highlighted by a consistent growth in revenue and net income over the years. The TTM Gross Profit Margin stands at approximately 27.6%, and the Net Profit Margin is an impressive 26.01%, indicating robust profitability. The company's revenue growth from 2024 to 2025 was 2.46%, showing stable growth. EBIT and EBITDA margins are solid at 12.58% and 17.35% respectively, reflecting operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Carrier Global is stable with a Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 0.81, which is reasonable for the industry. The Return on Equity (ROE) for the TTM is high at 42.21%, reflecting effective use of equity. The Equity Ratio stands at 38.96%, which suggests a balanced capital structure. However, the total debt is significant, which could pose risks if interest rates rise.

Cash Flow

Carrier Global's cash flow statements reveal a moderate position. The TTM Free Cash Flow to Net Income ratio is 0.09, indicating modest cash conversion from profits. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income ratio is 0.17, showing that operational cash generation is below net income levels. However, there is a significant improvement in free cash flow from 2024 to TTM, showcasing better cash management.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
23.04B	22.49B	22.10B	20.42B	20.61B	17.46B
	Gross Profit
6.36B	5.98B	6.38B	5.46B	5.98B	5.11B
	EBIT
2.90B	2.65B	2.30B	2.41B	2.65B	2.10B
	EBITDA
4.00B	4.09B	2.99B	2.90B	2.91B	2.41B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
5.75B	5.60B	1.35B	3.53B	1.66B	1.98B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.70B	3.97B	10.02B	3.52B	2.99B	3.12B
	Total Assets
36.45B	37.40B	32.82B	26.09B	26.17B	25.09B
	Total Debt
11.62B	12.71B	14.68B	9.37B	10.22B	11.03B
	Net Debt
9.92B	8.74B	4.67B	5.85B	7.24B	7.92B
	Total Liabilities
22.25B	23.01B	23.82B	18.01B	19.08B	18.52B
	Stockholders Equity
13.86B	14.08B	8.68B	7.76B	6.77B	6.25B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
528.00M	44.00M	2.14B	1.39B	1.89B	1.38B
	Operating Cash Flow
1.01B	563.00M	2.61B	1.74B	2.24B	1.69B
	Investing Cash Flow
9.03B	-2.02B	-660.00M	1.75B	-692.00M	1.11B
	Financing Cash Flow
-9.76B	-4.64B	4.61B	-2.93B	-1.56B	-681.00M

Carrier Global Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 70.47
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CARR, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 70.47 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 71.22, above the 50-day MA of 68.24, and above the 200-day MA of 70.39, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.27 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.99 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.47 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CARR.

Carrier Global Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CARR	81 Outperform	$60.41B	16.17	25.69%	1.28%	0.14%	202.13%
TT	81 Outperform	$93.60B	34.92	38.45%	0.90%	11.43%	28.49%
CSL	78 Outperform	$15.34B	9.69	33.11%	1.13%	-0.14%	135.52%
JCI	74 Outperform	$67.29B	27.27	14.92%	1.45%	-8.39%	51.56%
LII	74 Outperform	$19.52B	24.52	131.48%	0.84%	7.78%	30.10%
AAON	67 Neutral	$5.87B	37.87	19.85%	0.55%	8.24%	-11.66%
Sector *	64 Neutral	$10.24B	15.15	4.04%	2.02%	2.54%	-26.43%

Carrier Global Corporate Events

Carrier Global Repurchases 4.2 Million Shares for $300M

On June 5, 2025, Carrier Global Corporation repurchased over 4.2 million shares of its common stock from Viessmann Traeger HoldCo GmbH for $300 million, marking a strategic move under its existing share repurchase authorization. This transaction, involving a slight discount from the market price, reflects a diversification strategy by Maximilian Viessmann, who remains a significant shareholder and board member, expressing confidence in Carrier’s leadership and growth prospects.

The most recent analyst rating on (CARR) stock is a Hold with a $72.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carrier Global stock, see the CARR Stock Forecast page.

Carrier Global Announces Segment Restructuring and Growth

On May 1, 2025, Carrier Global announced a restructuring of its reportable segments to better align with its business management and performance assessment, introducing four new segments focused on climate solutions across different regions and transportation. The company also reported strong financial results for the first quarter of 2025, with a notable increase in adjusted earnings per share and operating margins despite a slight decline in net sales. This restructuring and financial performance position Carrier for accelerated growth, supported by increased orders and backlogs, and an updated full-year guidance.

Carrier Global Announces Resignation of Key Executive

On April 16, 2025, Carrier Global Corporation announced the resignation of Kyle Crockett, Vice President, Controller, and Chief Accounting Officer, effective around May 2, 2025. Patrick Goris, the Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, will serve as interim Controller starting May 2, 2025, while the company searches for a permanent replacement.

Carrier Global Holds Annual Meeting, Elects Directors

Carrier Global held its Annual Meeting on April 9, 2025, where a quorum of 788,861,687 shares was present. During the meeting, directors were elected, executive compensation was approved, an amendment to the Long-Term Incentive Plan was passed, and PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP was ratified as the independent auditor for 2025. However, a proposal for a lobbying transparency report was not approved.