Want to see AAON full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Aaon
(NASDAQ:AAON)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:53Neutral
Price Target:
$87.00
▲(14.19% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/28/26
AAON’s score is held back primarily by weak recent cash generation (negative TTM free cash flow and poor cash conversion) and bearish technicals (price below major moving averages with negative MACD). These negatives are partially offset by a strong and optimistic earnings call with raised growth guidance and strong backlog visibility, though valuation remains rich (P/E ~40) with a low dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Backlog visibility
A backlog near twice the prior-year level provides substantial revenue visibility beyond the current quarter and supports production planning. It also indicates that demand is translating into committed work, giving AAON a durable foundation for continued growth as capacity expands.
Negative Factors
Negative free cash flow
Sustained negative free cash flow reduces internally generated funding for expansion, debt reduction, and shareholder returns. Although operating cash flow is positive, its weak conversion relative to earnings suggests that working-capital needs or investment intensity may continue to constrain financial flexibility.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Backlog visibility
A backlog near twice the prior-year level provides substantial revenue visibility beyond the current quarter and supports production planning. It also indicates that demand is translating into committed work, giving AAON a durable foundation for continued growth as capacity expands.
Read all positive factors
Aaon (AAON) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$7.10B
Dividend Yield0.46%
Average Volume (3M)1.08M
Price to Earnings (P/E)44.4
Beta (1Y)1.69
Revenue Growth53.53%
EPS Growth29.55%
CountryUS
Employees5,897
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryIndustrial - Machinery
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.94
Shares Outstanding82,453,636
10 Day Avg. Volume1,098,735
30 Day Avg. Volume1,079,138
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.59
Price to Book (P/B)6.95
Price to Sales (P/S)4.31
P/FCF Ratio-32.48
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.56
Enterprise Value/Revenue5.74
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit22.44
Enterprise Value/Ebitda37.09
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$123.33Price Target Upside61.88% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)2.35
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.29B
Aaon Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
AAON, Inc., along with its affiliated companies, focuses on the engineering, manufacturing, promotion, and sale of heating and air conditioning systems throughout the United States and Canada. The enterprise's operations are divided into three dis...
How the Company Makes Money
AAON makes money primarily by selling HVAC equipment and related components for commercial and industrial applications. Its core revenue stream is product sales of engineered and standard HVAC systems (e.g., packaged rooftop units, air-handling un...
Aaon Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 10, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 09, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a broadly positive operational and financial progress story: record revenue, double-digit EBITDA and EPS growth, exceptional BASX expansion, AAON brand share gains, improving cash flow and a rapidly ramping Memphis facility. Near-term margin pressure from mix, ramp-up overhead, outsourcing and inflationary cost timing were acknowledged as temporary headwinds, with management guiding to margin improvement in H2 (Q4 weighted) and providing an upgraded full-year sales growth outlook of 55%–60%. Given the strong revenue and profitability momentum, healthy backlog and visible actions to address cost pressures, the positives materially outweigh the temporary lowlights.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Revenue
Q2 net sales were a record $627.0 million, up 101% year-over-year and 26% sequentially, driven by higher throughput across facilities and successful capacity investments.
Negative Updates
Consolidated Gross Margin Pressure
Consolidated gross margin was 24.3% in Q2, down from 26.6% in Q2 2025 (a decline of ~230 basis points). Management attributes the decline to mix effects from rapid BASX/Memphis ramp, capacity ramp-up costs, increased outsourcing and inflationary price/cost timing.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Revenue
Q2 net sales were a record $627.0 million, up 101% year-over-year and 26% sequentially, driven by higher throughput across facilities and successful capacity investments.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
AAON updated 2026 guidance calls for sales growth of 55%–60%, gross margin of 25%–26%, SG&A of 13%–14% of sales, and depreciation & amortization of $95M–$100M; management said this reflects stronger-than-expected production, backlog conversion and execution. The guidance follows a very strong Q2 (net sales $627M, +101% YoY; gross profit $152.5M; gross margin 24.3% vs 26.6% a year ago; adjusted EBITDA $94.2M, +102.3%; adjusted diluted EPS $0.69, +213.6%), H1 operating cash flow +$55M (vs a $31M use prior year), cash + restricted cash $12.7M, debt $435M and leverage 1.48, YTD capex $102.6M, and backlog roughly double prior year levels. Management expects margin improvement into Q3–Q4 (Q4 weighted), driven by higher facility utilization, productivity gains, pricing and sourcing actions, with continued progress into 2027 and an AAON-brand implicit ~20% FY growth (BASX implied to more than double).Aaon Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
38
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.93B | 1.44B | 1.20B | 1.17B | 888.79M | 534.52M |
| Gross Profit | 494.09M | 385.72M | 397.11M | 399.02M | 237.57M | 137.83M |
| EBITDA | 299.00M | 225.84M | 272.97M | 274.79M | 162.59M | 99.73M |
| Net Income | 159.29M | 107.59M | 168.56M | 177.62M | 100.38M | 58.76M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.86B | 1.69B | 1.18B | 941.44M | 813.90M | 650.18M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 13.00K | 13.00K | 14.00K | 287.00K | 5.45M | 2.86M |
| Total Debt | 463.87M | 424.65M | 170.96M | 50.55M | 78.25M | 41.58M |
| Total Liabilities | 853.27M | 791.52M | 350.65M | 206.21M | 253.19M | 184.01M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.01B | 894.99M | 824.58M | 735.22M | 560.71M | 466.17M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -118.79M | -191.42M | -3.13M | 54.60M | 7.29M | 5.82M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 86.54M | -861.00K | 192.53M | 158.90M | 61.32M | 61.18M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -203.85M | -192.42M | -213.07M | -109.31M | -76.21M | -158.72M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 128.71M | 188.00M | 18.03M | -46.51M | 17.36M | 18.73M |
Aaon Technical Analysis
Neutral
76.19
Price Trends
82.45
Positive
102.28
Negative
97.91
Negative
Market Momentum
1.22
Negative
56.12
Neutral
55.82
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AAON, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 76.19 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 82.02, below the 50-day MA of 82.45, and below the 200-day MA of 97.91, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.22 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.12 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 55.82 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AAON.
Aaon Risk Analysis
Aaon disclosed 25 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Aaon reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Aaon Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $104.95B | 36.12 | 34.49% | 0.86% | 7.04% | 4.58% | |
66 Neutral | $45.80B | 38.23 | 8.89% | 1.70% | -1.58% | -43.59% | |
65 Neutral | $12.32B | 16.17 | 65.30% | 1.49% | -2.11% | -5.59% | |
65 Neutral | $9.64B | 68.00 | 12.64% | ― | 29.47% | -23.92% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
53 Neutral | $7.10B | 44.43 | 17.21% | 0.46% | 53.53% | 29.55% | |
44 Neutral | $12.15B | 110.75 | 5.62% | ― | ― | ― |
* Industrials Sector Average
AAON
Aaon
86.16
-15.36
-15.13%
TT
Trane Technologies
476.98
62.12
14.97%
LII
Lennox International
356.44
-161.69
-31.21%
MOD
Modine
181.56
36.82
25.44%
CARR
Carrier Global
55.56
-0.45
-0.80%
MAIR
Madison Air Solutions Corp. Class A
24.22
-7.53
-23.72%
Aaon Corporate Events
Business Operations and Strategy
Aaon Unveils The Aaon Group Multi-Brand Identity
Positive
Aug 28, 2026
On August 21, 2026, Aaon, Inc. announced it would operate under the enterprise trade name The Aaon Group, formalizing its evolution from a single-brand entity into a multi-brand organization centered on the AAON and BASX operating brands. The new ...
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
AAON Board Declares Regular Quarterly Cash Dividend
Positive
Aug 13, 2026
On August 13, 2026, AAON announced that its Board of Directors declared the next regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.10 per share, or $0.40 on an annualized basis. The dividend will be paid on September 25, 2026, to shareholders of record as of ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
AAON Posts Record Q2 Results, Lifts 2026 Outlook
Positive
Aug 10, 2026
On August 10, 2026, AAON reported record second‑quarter 2026 results, with net sales surging 101.2% year over year to $627.0 million and operating income jumping 192.1% to $68.9 million. Diluted EPS climbed 257.9% to $0.68 as expanded capaci...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
AAON Expands Board, Strengthens Governance for Growth
Positive
Jul 30, 2026
On July 28, 2026, AAON’s Board of Directors increased its size from nine to eleven members and appointed Robert L. Buttermore III and Patrick J. Jermain as independent directors, reflecting a formal amendment to the company’s bylaws. B...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.