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Madison Air Solutions Corp. Class A
(NYSE:MAIR)
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Rating:44Neutral
Price Target:
$27.00
▲(2.54% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/26/26
The score is held down primarily by elevated balance-sheet risk (high/rising debt and negative equity) and weak technical momentum (below key moving averages with negative MACD). Stronger revenue growth and improved cash generation provide some support, but an extremely high P/E with no dividend yield limits the valuation case.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth and Operating Margins
Strong 2025 revenue expansion and solid gross and EBITDA margins indicate meaningful operating scale and demand. If sustained, this combination can support cash generation and provide a durable foundation for growth despite pressure below the operating line.
Negative Factors
High Leverage and Negative Equity
Rising debt combined with negative equity leaves the capital structure vulnerable to operating downturns and refinancing pressure. This weakens resilience, may constrain strategic flexibility and can keep interest-related obligations elevated even if operating performance improves.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue Growth and Operating Margins
Strong 2025 revenue expansion and solid gross and EBITDA margins indicate meaningful operating scale and demand. If sustained, this combination can support cash generation and provide a durable foundation for growth despite pressure below the operating line.
Read all positive factors
Madison Air Solutions Corp. Class A (MAIR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$12.99B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)3.02M
Price to Earnings (P/E)118.4
Beta (1Y)2.50
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees8,650
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryIndustrial - Machinery
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.22
Shares Outstanding177,342,760
10 Day Avg. Volume3,012,675
30 Day Avg. Volume3,017,860
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-27.77
Price to Book (P/B)-356.74
Price to Sales (P/S)3.75
P/FCF Ratio30.01
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$39.25Price Target Upside49.07% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)1.1
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.90B
Madison Air Solutions Corp. Class A Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Madison Air Solutions Corporation (MASC) specializes in the development and production of advanced indoor air quality and HVAC systems. Its operations are strategically divided into two distinct segments: Commercial and Residential. The Commercial...
Madison Air Solutions Corp. Class A Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 12, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 18, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented multiple strong operating and financial wins: double‑digit top‑line growth pro forma, margin expansion, record backlog, robust free cash flow conversion and a successful IPO that materially improves balance sheet flexibility. Headwinds noted include elevated leverage (pre‑proceeds), tariff/inflation pressures (~$100M gross), supply‑chain/geopolitical uncertainty, and some near‑term softness in specific product lines and residential volumes. Management provided a clear deleveraging plan, guidance above prior long‑term targets, and mitigation strategies for tariffs and supply risks.Positive Updates
Top-Line Growth (Pro Forma)
Pro forma net sales increased 13% year‑over‑year to $924 million in 1Q26, driven by strong volume in Commercial and price realization in Residential.
Negative Updates
High Leverage at Quarter End
As of March 31, 2026 net debt was approximately $5.5 billion with net leverage of 5.7x (pre‑IPO treatment). Even after IPO proceeds, trailing net leverage is ~3.0x, requiring further deleveraging to reach the <2.5x target.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Top-Line Growth (Pro Forma)
Pro forma net sales increased 13% year‑over‑year to $924 million in 1Q26, driven by strong volume in Commercial and price realization in Residential.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Madison Air guided full‑year 2026 net sales of $3.75–$3.85 billion (mid‑ to high‑single‑digit pro forma growth) and adjusted EBITDA of $1.02–$1.065 billion (high‑single‑digit to low‑double‑digit pro forma growth), implying roughly a 27% adjusted EBITDA margin, with free cash flow conversion >100% of net income and LTM free cash flow margin of ~12%; they expect CapEx <2% of sales, interest expense of ≈$250 million, an adjusted effective tax rate of 29%, diluted shares of ~510 million, ~$40 million of central expenses, and assume gross tariff costs of ≈$100 million (≈$50 million incremental vs. 2025) to be mitigated by pricing and productivity. Q2 visibility is mid‑single‑digit plus growth versus a $868 million Q2‑2025 pro forma comp with sequential margin improvement expected; balance sheet targets include achieving <2.5x net leverage within 12 months (pro forma leverage ~3.0x after ~$2.6 billion IPO proceeds used to repay debt), Mar‑31 net debt ≈$5.5 billion (5.7x), liquidity ≈$563 million (cash $229M + $334M revolver capacity), and an upsized $1.3 billion revolver becoming active in Q2.Madison Air Solutions Corp. Class A Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
63
Positive
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
57
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||
| Total Revenue | 1.92B | 3.52B | 2.62B | 2.56B |
| Gross Profit | 739.40M | 1.36B | 1.01B | 937.80M |
| EBITDA | 454.60M | 697.30M | 625.20M | 550.90M |
| Net Income | 102.80M | 30.80M | 175.20M | 58.20M |
Balance Sheet | ||||
| Total Assets | 8.35B | 8.18B | 5.45B | 6.38B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 261.80M | 208.40M | 419.20M | 301.90M |
| Total Debt | 3.08B | 5.65B | 4.24B | 4.14B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.70B | 8.10B | 5.11B | 5.24B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.65B | -37.00M | -58.10M | 1.01B |
Cash Flow | ||||
| Free Cash Flow | 135.00M | 439.80M | -10.30M | 262.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 151.50M | 480.40M | 17.90M | 288.10M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -17.00M | -2.35B | 1.06B | -34.40M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -81.40M | 1.74B | -1.04B | -41.90M |
Madison Air Solutions Corp. Class A Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $121.33B | 33.31 | 25.11% | 0.79% | 8.31% | 4.96% | |
76 Outperform | $159.57B | 41.67 | 19.56% | 1.06% | 15.53% | -1.21% | |
76 Outperform | $29.63B | 31.17 | 9.46% | 0.11% | 7.85% | 88.74% | |
75 Outperform | $10.55B | 23.22 | 27.71% | 1.36% | 5.28% | 26.51% | |
66 Neutral | $49.22B | 41.09 | 8.89% | 1.58% | -1.58% | -43.59% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
44 Neutral | $12.99B | 118.43 | 5.62% | ― | ― | ― |
* Industrials Sector Average
MAIR
Madison Air Solutions Corp. Class A
25.90
-5.85
-18.43%
DCI
Donaldson Company
91.03
10.84
13.51%
ETN
Eaton
410.85
65.20
18.86%
PH
Parker Hannifin
962.59
208.69
27.68%
IR
Ingersoll Rand
76.36
-3.94
-4.91%
CARR
Carrier Global
59.71
-4.91
-7.59%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.