Carlsberg (CABGY) AI Stock Analysis

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Carlsberg

(Other OTC:CABGY)

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Rating:65Neutral

Price Target:$30.00▲(3.42% Upside)

Action:reiterated

Date:08/19/26

CABGY’s score is primarily driven by solid operating profitability and improved cash generation, but tempered by higher leverage and historical earnings volatility. The latest earnings call was a positive offset with upgraded/narrowed guidance and faster synergy delivery, while technical signals are mixed and valuation metrics (P/E ~19.7, ~3.19% yield) are broadly moderate.

Positive Factors

Broad-based category and portfolio growthGrowth across soft drinks, premium beer, alcohol-free products and Pepsi broadens Carlsberg’s revenue base. This portfolio diversification can improve resilience, support premiumization and reduce dependence on mainstream beer demand over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Elevated leverage and reduced financial flexibilityDespite recent net leverage reduction, the year-end debt-to-equity increase leaves Carlsberg more exposed to weaker profits, refinancing needs and higher financing costs. A heavier capital structure can constrain acquisitions, dividends and investment flexibility.

Carlsberg (CABGY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap: $19.89B
Dividend Yield: 3.09%
Average Volume (3M): 29.79K
Price to Earnings (P/E): 20.1
Beta (1Y): 0.31
Revenue Growth: 17.82%
EPS Growth: ―
Country: US
Employees: 36,998
Sector: Consumer Defensive
Sector Strength: 62
Industry: Beverages - Alcoholic

Carlsberg Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Carlsberg A/S, headquartered in Copenhagen, Denmark, specializes in the production and global distribution of beer and various other beverage products. Their extensive portfolio includes traditional core beers, a range of craft and specialty brews, a...

How the Company Makes Money

Carlsberg makes money primarily by selling beverages—mainly beer—under its portfolio of brands. Revenue is generated through (1) sales to off-trade customers such as supermarkets, convenience stores, and wholesalers, and (2) sales to on-trade custome...

Carlsberg Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 18, 2026(Q2-2026)|% Change Since:3.06%|Next Earnings Date:Feb 08, 2027

Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call conveyed a predominantly positive message: the Group delivered solid organic revenue and operating profit growth, improved margins, stronger cash generation and materially reduced leverage. Strategic moves (Britvic integration, Pepsi expansions, Sapporo JV) and faster-than-expected synergy delivery underpin upgraded confidence and a narrowed, higher earnings guidance. Main challenges noted were a weak China beer market exacerbated by severe weather and temporary destocking, Kazakhstan’s current lack of profitability diluting regional margins, FX headwinds and localized market softness (Poland, Ukraine). Overall, the positive operational progress, balance-sheet improvements and clearer outlook outweigh the near-term regional headwinds.

Positive Updates

Top-line and Earnings Growth

Organic revenue +2.7% (Group CPM) driven by volume (+1.7%) and revenue per hectoliter (+1%). Organic operating profit +5.9%; operating margin expanded 30 basis points to 15.8%.

Negative Updates

Weak China Beer Market and Severe Weather Impact

Asia volumes flat (H1); beer volumes in Asia -0.9%. China significantly impacted by severe Q2 weather (heavy rain/flooding) with stronger-than-normal destocking and reduced consumption in key strongholds (noted Q2 and early Q3 weakness); distributor inventory build expected to weigh on near-term sell-through and Q3.

Company Guidance

Carlsberg narrowed its 2026 guidance for organic operating profit (CPM) growth to 4–6% (up from a prior 2–6% range), reflecting a solid H1 (CPM) performance—organic operating profit +5.9%, operating margin 15.8% and revenue DKK 47.1bn (+2.7% organic)—and management now expects to realize roughly 80% of total Britvic synergies by year‑end; assumptions include no currency impact on operating profit at yesterday’s spot rates, net finance costs (ex‑FX) of ~DKK 1.8bn (down from DKK 2.2bn previously), CapEx of DKK 6–7bn, a tax rate of ~23%, limited 2026 profitability benefit from the Kazakhstan plant (start-up end‑Q3), and continued H2 earnings growth provided no material deterioration in the external environment.

Carlsberg Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Operating performance and cash generation are solid (2025 operating margin ~13%, EBITDA margin ~19%, and stronger 2025 operating/free cash flow), but the profile is held back by earnings volatility (large losses in 2022–2023 and lower profit margin in 2025 vs. 2024) and materially higher leverage (debt-to-equity ~2.62 in 2025 vs. ~1.37 in 2024).

Income Statement

70Positive

Balance Sheet

52Neutral

Cash Flow

74Positive

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	91.27B	89.09B	75.01B	73.58B	70.27B	60.10B
Gross Profit	40.99B	40.24B	34.38B	32.83B	32.07B	28.57B
EBITDA	17.42B	17.39B	15.80B	15.02B	14.59B	13.87B
Net Income	6.46B	5.96B	9.12B	-40.79B	-1.06B	6.85B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	163.72B	153.94B	113.33B	111.83B	115.34B	126.38B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	9.65B	9.58B	11.60B	15.62B	8.16B	8.34B
Total Debt	73.57B	70.62B	38.14B	39.10B	28.65B	28.92B
Total Liabilities	132.37B	123.27B	82.72B	86.08B	80.62B	77.63B
Stockholders Equity	28.48B	27.80B	27.77B	23.23B	31.90B	45.50B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	9.43B	7.81B	1.03B	7.36B	8.93B	9.04B
Operating Cash Flow	15.43B	12.54B	1.76B	11.61B	12.95B	13.26B
Investing Cash Flow	-10.24B	-34.21B	-1.52B	-6.73B	-4.65B	-4.38B
Financing Cash Flow	-5.09B	20.36B	-13.94B	1.37B	-9.76B	-8.95B

Carlsberg Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (62)

Financial Indicators

CABGY against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
STZ	79Outperform	$22.90B	12.13	23.58%	3.04%	-4.31%	62.57%
ABEV	72Outperform	$41.55B	14.04	17.63%	4.55%	4.24%	19.95%
BUD	72Outperform	$159.97B	12.90	13.31%	1.68%	6.60%	31.61%
CABGY	65Neutral	$19.79B	20.07	22.72%	3.09%	17.82%	―
Sector *	62Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
CCU	60Neutral	$1.91B	18.31	6.96%	2.76%	0.56%	-28.00%
TAP	54Neutral	$7.52B	-3.48	-22.65%	4.76%	-1.77%	-326.16%

* Consumer Defensive Sector Average

Performance Comparison

CABGY and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
CABGY	Carlsberg	29.01	5.85	25.28%
BUD	Anheuser-busch Inbev	80.38	20.02	33.17%
CCU	Compania Cervecerias Unidas	10.33	-2.38	-18.71%
STZ	Constellation Brands	135.33	8.24	6.48%
TAP	Molson Coors Beverage	40.12	-1.23	-2.99%
ABEV	Ambev SA	2.66	0.43	19.12%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Aug 19, 2026

Carlsberg AI Stock Analysis