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Burlington Stores
(NYSE:BURL)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$306.00
▼(-2.54% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/28/26
The score is supported by improving profitability and raised full-year guidance, but is held back by a weak technical setup (below key moving averages with negative MACD) and balance-sheet risk from elevated leverage. Valuation at ~26x earnings is not especially cheap and provides limited cushion if comps or margins soften, especially with near-term reinvestment and inventory risks.
Positive Factors
Revenue and Profitability Growth
Burlington is showing sustained scale and profitability improvement, supported by stronger merchandise margins, supply-chain productivity and SG&A leverage. Higher operating efficiency gives the business more capacity to fund expansion while absorbing retail volatility.
Negative Factors
Elevated Financial Leverage
Although leverage has improved from earlier peaks, the capital structure remains a material risk. High debt relative to equity can constrain investment flexibility and magnify pressure on cash flow, margins and covenant headroom during a retail downturn.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue and Profitability Growth
Burlington is showing sustained scale and profitability improvement, supported by stronger merchandise margins, supply-chain productivity and SG&A leverage. Higher operating efficiency gives the business more capacity to fund expansion while absorbing retail volatility.
Read all positive factors
Burlington Stores Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down sales across different business units, highlighting which segments are driving growth and profitability, and where the company might focus future strategic efforts.
Breaks down sales across different business units, highlighting which segments are driving growth and profitability, and where the company might focus future strategic efforts.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyBurlington Stores (BURL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$17.15B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)629.82K
Price to Earnings (P/E)24.5
Beta (1Y)0.66
Revenue Growth10.89%
EPS Growth31.47%
CountryUS
Employees83,309
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryApparel - Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)11.14
Shares Outstanding62,815,193
10 Day Avg. Volume648,521
30 Day Avg. Volume629,817
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.54
Price to Book (P/B)10.50
Price to Sales (P/S)1.64
P/FCF Ratio110.57
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$382.46Price Target Upside21.81% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering16
EPS Forecast (FY)12.04
Revenue Forecast (FY)$12.90B
Burlington Stores Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Burlington Stores, Inc. operates as a prominent retail chain across the United States, offering a diverse selection of branded apparel and other consumer products. Its merchandise is heavily focused on current fashion trends, providing items such ...
How the Company Makes Money
Burlington primarily makes money by buying branded merchandise from manufacturers, brands, and other suppliers—often opportunistically (e.g., excess inventory, canceled orders, closeouts, or seasonal overages)—and reselling it through its stores a...
Burlington Stores Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 27, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| Next Earnings Date:Nov 24, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong underlying operating performance — double-digit total sales growth, significant EPS and margin expansion, robust new-store productivity and improved gross margins — and the company raised full-year earnings outlook. Management is electing to reinvest a $55M tariff refund into sharper customer pricing, which will pressure Q3/Q4 margins but is framed as a strategic, customer-focused move. Risks include a moderate comp trend, elevated inventories, short-term cannibalization from accelerated store openings, macro/energy-driven consumer caution and weather sensitivity for outerwear. Overall, the positive operational and financial momentum and upgraded guidance outweigh the near-term reinvestment and macro/weather headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong Earnings and Margin Expansion
Adjusted EPS increased 38% in Q2 (ex-tariff refunds) and adjusted EBIT margin expanded 100 basis points to 7%, driven by merchandise margin improvement, supply chain productivity and SG&A leverage.
Negative Updates
Moderate Comp Performance
Comp store sales were only +2% in Q2 (midpoint of 1%-3% guidance) and the comp trend moderated in July; management is cautious on consumer strength despite underlying momentum.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Earnings and Margin Expansion
Adjusted EPS increased 38% in Q2 (ex-tariff refunds) and adjusted EBIT margin expanded 100 basis points to 7%, driven by merchandise margin improvement, supply chain productivity and SG&A leverage.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Burlington raised its full‑year fiscal 2026 outlook, now expecting total sales up 10–11%, comp store sales up 3–4%, adjusted EBIT margin to expand 20–40 basis points versus last year, and adjusted EPS of $11.77–$11.97 (up 16–18% vs FY25); guidance excludes roughly $16M of bankruptcy‑acquired lease costs (vs $35M in 2025) and reflects the $55M Q2 tariff refund that management will reinvest in H2 so the net full‑year impact is neutral. For Q3 management guides comp +1–3% and total sales +9–11%, with operating margin down 80–60 bps (driven by reinvestment) and adjusted EPS $1.60–$1.70 (prior‑year Q3 EPS $1.80); Q4 guidance is comp +1–3%, total sales +7–9%, operating margin down 60–40 bps and adjusted EPS $5.05–$5.15 (prior‑year Q4 EPS $4.99). Management said the $55M tariff reinvestment will be split ~40% in Q3 / ~60% in Q4 (reinvesting the $0.64 per‑share Q2 benefit), noted underlying fall guidance excluding reinvestment of EPS $7.30–$7.50 and EBIT margin +10–30 bps remains unchanged, and highlighted liquidity of about $1.6B (cash $704M + $942M ABL availability) and $218M remaining on the share repurchase authorization.Burlington Stores Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
46
Neutral
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jan 2026 | Jan 2025 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 12.22B | 11.57B | 10.63B | 9.73B | 8.70B | 9.32B |
| Gross Profit | 5.45B | 5.08B | 4.61B | 4.14B | 3.53B | 3.89B |
| EBITDA | 1.46B | 1.31B | 1.09B | 851.24M | 644.38M | 862.02M |
| Net Income | 714.18M | 610.15M | 503.64M | 339.65M | 230.12M | 408.84M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 10.04B | 9.92B | 8.77B | 7.71B | 7.27B | 7.09B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 703.69M | 1.23B | 994.70M | 925.36M | 872.62M | 1.09B |
| Total Debt | 4.01B | 6.01B | 5.37B | 4.80B | 4.70B | 4.45B |
| Total Liabilities | 6.07B | 8.11B | 7.40B | 6.71B | 6.47B | 6.33B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.00B | 1.81B | 1.37B | 996.93M | 794.90M | 760.42M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.01B | 171.59M | -28.61M | 351.45M | 145.28M | 480.12M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.42B | 1.23B | 863.38M | 868.74M | 596.38M | 833.16M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.01B | -1.06B | -882.25M | -503.75M | -423.14M | -344.39M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -448.06M | 61.49M | 88.22M | -318.84M | -391.71M | -777.96M |
Burlington Stores Technical Analysis
Negative
313.99
Price Trends
339.43
Negative
330.17
Negative
312.86
Negative
Market Momentum
-14.01
Positive
18.01
Positive
3.35
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BURL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 313.99 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 341.32, below the 50-day MA of 339.43, and above the 200-day MA of 312.86, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -14.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 18.01 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 3.35 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BURL.
Burlington Stores Risk Analysis
Burlington Stores disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Burlington Stores reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Burlington Stores Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $6.94B | 12.48 | 20.72% | ― | 11.01% | 24.97% | |
72 Outperform | $73.31B | 27.44 | 42.34% | 0.71% | 14.02% | 31.41% | |
70 Outperform | $8.45B | 6.87 | 33.13% | 3.58% | 1.05% | 44.82% | |
68 Neutral | $149.27B | 24.98 | 59.77% | 1.14% | 7.66% | 23.38% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
61 Neutral | $17.15B | 24.50 | 39.82% | ― | 10.89% | 31.47% | |
60 Neutral | $2.83B | 10.22 | 17.24% | 2.94% | 6.22% | 65.05% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
BURL
Burlington Stores
272.95
-16.51
-5.70%
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American Eagle
16.87
4.28
33.95%
GAP
Gap Inc
23.48
2.13
9.96%
ROST
Ross Stores
228.55
82.71
56.72%
TJX
TJX Companies
135.12
0.16
0.12%
URBN
Urban Outfitters
81.09
13.48
19.94%
Burlington Stores Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Burlington Stores Announces Leadership Transition in HR Department
Positive
Aug 4, 2026
On July 31, 2026, Burlington Stores, Inc. announced that Executive Vice President and Chief Human Resources Officer Matthew Pasch will depart the company effective September 1, 2026, with severance benefits and pro-rata continued vesting of his 20...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.