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Peabody Energy Comm
(NYSE:BTU)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$23.00
â–¼(-15.81% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/19/26
BTU’s score is held back primarily by weakened profitability (losses and margin compression) and bearish price action (below key moving averages with weak momentum). Offsetting factors include strong free cash flow and a low-leverage balance sheet, with incremental support from positive corporate developments (enhanced credit facility and progress on the Centurion growth asset).
Positive Factors
Strong Cash Generation
TTM operating cash flow of about $850M and free cash flow of about $453M show that the business can generate substantial liquidity even while reported net income is negative. That supports debt service, reclamation funding, investment and shareholder returns through the cycle.
Negative Factors
Profitability Deterioration
The shift from double-digit operating and net margins in 2022–2024 to losses in 2025 and the TTM period indicates materially weaker earnings quality. Thin or negative margins reduce resilience, limit internally funded growth and make results more sensitive to coal prices and operating costs.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong Cash Generation
TTM operating cash flow of about $850M and free cash flow of about $453M show that the business can generate substantial liquidity even while reported net income is negative. That supports debt service, reclamation funding, investment and shareholder returns through the cycle.
Read all positive factors
Peabody Energy Comm Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Adjusted EBITDA by Segment
Shows earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization for each segment, providing insight into the profitability and financial health of different parts of the company.
Shows earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization for each segment, providing insight into the profitability and financial health of different parts of the company.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyPeabody Energy Comm (BTU) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.76B
Dividend Yield1.34%
Average Volume (3M)2.33M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.97
Revenue Growth-0.68%
EPS Growth-233.93%
CountryUS
Employees5,400
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryCoal
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.50
Shares Outstanding121,900,000
10 Day Avg. Volume2,047,354
30 Day Avg. Volume2,327,139
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.61
Price to Book (P/B)1.02
Price to Sales (P/S)0.94
P/FCF Ratio6.85
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.00
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.69
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit31.60
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.73
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$31.13Price Target Upside13.93% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.28
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.28B
Peabody Energy Comm Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri, and founded in 1883, Peabody Energy Corporation operates as a prominent global entity in the coal mining sector. Its vast operations encompass the United States, Australia, Japan, India, China, and several oth...
How the Company Makes Money
Peabody primarily makes money by mining and selling coal under a mix of long-term supply agreements and shorter-term/spot sales, with revenue generally recognized when coal is delivered to customers. Its key revenue streams are: (1) Seaborne metal...
Peabody Energy Comm Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call was mixed: operational and commercial strength across seaborne thermal and U.S. thermal delivered solid adjusted EBITDA, improved realized export prices, strong cash/liquidity and strategic progress (rare earth pilot, West Coast export proof-of-concept). Offsetting these positives, the Centurion longwall commissioning issues materially reduced metallurgical volumes and financial results (≈$80M impact and 1.0 million ton reduction in expected Centurion sales), caused higher met costs and produced a Q1 GAAP net loss. Rising diesel and freight costs add near-term margin risk, though management expects Centurion to reach full production rates in the back half of 2026 and believes the balance sheet provides flexibility to manage the disruption.Positive Updates
Strong consolidated adjusted EBITDA
Delivered adjusted EBITDA of $82.5 million in Q1 2026, supported by strong performance in seaborne thermal and U.S. thermal segments.
Negative Updates
Centurion longwall ramp-up delays and production shortfall
Centurion experienced mechanical and electrical commissioning issues and slower cutting speeds that led to roof/floor remediation and a longer-than-anticipated ramp-up. Full-year Centurion sales outlook reduced to 2.5 million tons from 3.5 million tons (a 1.0 million ton decrease, or -28.6%), and remaining temporary headwinds expected to impact Q2 with recovery in back half of 2026.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong consolidated adjusted EBITDA
Delivered adjusted EBITDA of $82.5 million in Q1 2026, supported by strong performance in seaborne thermal and U.S. thermal segments.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company updated near‑term and full‑year guidance with many quantifiable changes: Centurion’s full‑year sales outlook is reduced to ~2.5 million tons (from 3.5 million), with ~300,000 tons expected to sell in Q2 and the planned 7‑week longwall move shifted into early 2027; as a result seaborne metallurgical volumes are down ~1.0 million tons and full‑year met costs are now guided to $123–$133/ton (Q2 met volume: 2.3 million tons with realizations at ~75% of the premium HCC index). Seaborne thermal Q2 volume is expected at 3.0 million tons (1.9 million export), of which 300,000 tons are priced at an average $64.60/ton while 1.0 million tons Newcastle and 600,000 tons higher‑ash remain unpriced; Q2 seaborne thermal cost guidance is $57–$62/ton (including roughly $3.50/ton headwind from fuel/AUD/R&M) and full‑year seaborne thermal costs were increased by $2/ton. PRB shipped 21.2 million tons in Q1, is expected to ship ~19 million tons in Q2 at a cost of ~$13.25/ton, and full‑year PRB costs were increased by $0.50/ton due to diesel (Peabody uses ~100 million gallons of diesel/year and each $10/barrel move in oil changes EBITDA by ~$6 million/quarter). Q1 results included a net loss of $32.4 million ($0.27/share) but adjusted EBITDA of $82.5 million (seaborne thermal: 3.0 million tons, realized export price ~$86.25/ton, cost $50.26/ton, $48.5 million adjusted EBITDA; seaborne met: 2.0 million tons, cost ~$142/ton, ~$7 million adjusted EBITDA loss), and the company ended the quarter with just under $500 million cash and >$850 million total liquidity, expecting remaining temporary headwinds largely confined to Q2 with a return to full longwall production and stronger cash flow in H2 2026.Peabody Energy Comm Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
38
Negative
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
79
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.01B | 3.86B | 4.24B | 4.95B | 4.98B | 3.32B |
| Gross Profit | 87.60M | 105.60M | 815.80M | 1.56B | 1.69B | 765.20M |
| EBITDA | 284.40M | 431.40M | 906.00M | 1.51B | 1.74B | 907.00M |
| Net Income | -182.70M | -52.90M | 370.90M | 759.60M | 1.30B | 360.10M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.45B | 5.81B | 5.95B | 5.96B | 5.61B | 4.95B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 526.30M | 575.30M | 700.40M | 969.30M | 1.31B | 954.30M |
| Total Debt | 424.90M | 511.40M | 467.20M | 399.20M | 361.60M | 1.18B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.15B | 2.23B | 2.24B | 2.35B | 2.32B | 3.13B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.25B | 3.54B | 3.65B | 3.55B | 3.23B | 1.76B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 452.50M | 528.30M | 204.00M | 687.20M | 949.40M | 236.90M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 849.70M | 949.70M | 606.50M | 1.04B | 1.17B | 420.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -994.80M | -964.40M | -598.10M | -342.60M | -28.70M | -131.50M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -228.00M | -83.40M | -276.00M | -460.30M | -681.60M | -43.40M |
Peabody Energy Comm Technical Analysis
Negative
27.32
Price Trends
26.23
Negative
25.24
Negative
28.35
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.84
Positive
31.59
Neutral
10.13
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BTU, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 27.32 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 24.55, above the 50-day MA of 26.23, and below the 200-day MA of 28.35, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.84 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 31.59 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.13 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BTU.
Peabody Energy Comm Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $3.30B | 12.49 | 14.82% | 9.33% | -5.11% | 12.73% | |
67 Neutral | $4.45B | 20.24 | 10.02% | 0.38% | 37.47% | 439.91% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
65 Neutral | $4.35B | 43.99 | 2.70% | 0.46% | 30.21% | -10.03% | |
55 Neutral | $2.76B | -14.92 | -5.29% | 1.34% | -0.68% | -233.93% | |
55 Neutral | $2.01B | -44.53 | -2.99% | 2.62% | -12.92% | -25.84% | |
49 Neutral | $420.53M | -6.17 | -13.54% | 5.32% | -17.65% | -157.95% |
* Energy Sector Average
BTU
Peabody Energy Comm
22.43
-6.31
-21.96%
ARLP
Alliance Resource
25.85
4.02
18.41%
AMR
Alpha Metallurgical Resources
159.39
3.28
2.10%
METC
Ramaco Resources
7.23
-28.78
-79.92%
HCC
Warrior Met Coal
83.00
20.53
32.87%
CNR
Core Natural Resources
88.35
5.20
6.25%
Peabody Energy Comm Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Peabody Energy Highlights Strategy at Jefferies Industrials Conference
Positive
Sep 9, 2026
Peabody Energy Corporation plans to present its strategic focus and recent business developments at the Jefferies Global Industrials Conference beginning September 9, 2026, using investor materials that outline its diversified coal portfolio and f...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Peabody Energy plans COO transition to consulting role
Neutral
Aug 28, 2026
On August 27, 2026, Peabody Energy Corporation and its Australian subsidiary signed a Consulting Services Agreement with Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer Darren R. Yeates as part of the company’s ongoing succession planni...
Business Operations and Strategy
Peabody Showcases Centurion Mine as Key Growth Asset
Positive
Aug 11, 2026
On August 11, 2026, Peabody Energy hosted analysts and investors at its Centurion Mine, showcasing the site as a cornerstone metallurgical coal asset within Australia’s Bowen Basin and releasing an accompanying investor video. Management hig...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Peabody Energy Posts Q2 Loss, Plans Second-Half Rebound
Neutral
Jul 29, 2026
On July 29, 2026, Peabody reported a second-quarter net loss of $90.6 million, with Adjusted EBITDA falling to $24.0 million from $93.3 million a year earlier, as temporarily lower volumes and higher costs weighed on results. Management expects an...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.