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Peabody Energy Comm (BTU)
NYSE:BTU
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Peabody Energy Comm (BTU) AI Stock Analysis

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BTU

Peabody Energy Comm

(NYSE:BTU)

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Neutral 61 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$32.00
▲(6.88% Upside)
Peabody Energy's overall stock score is driven by its strong operational performance and future prospects, as highlighted in the earnings call. However, financial challenges and valuation concerns weigh down the score. The technical analysis suggests a potential positive trend, but the negative P/E ratio remains a significant risk.
Positive Factors
Centurion Mine Development
The Centurion mine is expected to be the lowest cost metallurgical coal mine, significantly enhancing Peabody's competitive position in the market.
U.S. Thermal Coal Market Trends
Increased U.S. electricity demand and coal plant utilization boost Peabody's thermal coal sales, supporting revenue stability and growth.
Balance Sheet Resilience
A strong balance sheet with substantial liquidity provides financial flexibility, allowing Peabody to weather market volatility and invest in growth.
Negative Factors
Declining Revenue and Profitability
Negative revenue growth and declining margins indicate operational challenges, potentially impacting long-term financial health.
Free Cash Flow Decline
A significant decline in free cash flow growth limits Peabody's ability to reinvest in operations and return capital to shareholders.
GAAP Net Loss
Sustained net losses could strain financial resources and hinder Peabody's ability to fund strategic initiatives and maintain shareholder returns.

Peabody Energy Comm (BTU) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Peabody Energy Comm Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionPeabody Energy Corporation (BTU) is a leading global coal producer, primarily focused on the extraction and sale of coal used for electricity generation and steel production. The company operates in the United States and Australia, managing a range of mining operations that include both surface and underground mines. Peabody's core products include thermal coal, which is used for power generation, and metallurgical coal, which is essential for steel production. With a commitment to sustainable mining practices and innovation, Peabody Energy aims to meet the world's evolving energy needs while maintaining environmental stewardship.
How the Company Makes MoneyPeabody Energy generates revenue primarily through the sale of coal products, with key revenue streams coming from thermal coal and metallurgical coal sales to utilities and industrial customers. The company’s revenue model is driven by long-term contracts and spot market sales, allowing it to capitalize on fluctuations in coal prices. Additionally, Peabody benefits from strategic partnerships and joint ventures in various regions, which enhance its market access and operational efficiencies. Factors contributing to its earnings include global energy demand, regulatory dynamics affecting coal usage, and the company's ability to manage production costs effectively.

Peabody Energy Comm Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Adjusted EBITDA by Segment
Adjusted EBITDA by Segment
Chart Insights
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Peabody Energy Comm Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 30, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong operational performance and promising future prospects, especially with the development of the Centurion mine and positive market trends in the U.S. thermal coal segment. However, the financial loss due to acquisition termination costs and challenges in the seaborne met coal market were notable concerns.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Performance in Q3 2025
Peabody reported great safety results, strong thermal coal shipments, historically low met coal costs, and a pristine balance sheet. The company is positioned for positive EBITDA even during tough times.
Centurion Mine Development
Longwall production at the flagship Centurion mine begins next quarter, with shipments expected to expand sevenfold in 2026 to 3.5 million tons. It is expected to be the lowest cost metallurgical coal mine, boosting average met coal portfolio realizations from 70% to 80% of the benchmark.
Positive U.S. Thermal Coal Market Trends
U.S. electricity demand is up 2% over the prior year, with coal plant utilization increasing. U.S. coal burn increased by 11% due to favorable conditions, and Peabody's U.S. shipments are up 7% year-to-date.
Improved Financial Performance
Peabody's adjusted EBITDA increased, driven by higher Powder River Basin shipments and better-than-expected seaborne thermal coal volume. The cash position was $603 million with total liquidity over $950 million.
Negative Updates
GAAP Net Loss
Peabody recorded a GAAP net loss attributable to common stockholders of $70.1 million or $0.58 per diluted share, which included $54 million of acquisition termination costs.
Challenges in Seaborne Met Coal Market
Metallurgical coal markets remained unchanged, with 15% of seaborne met coal supply earning unsustainable revenue levels at current prices.
Unplanned Outage at Bear Run
An unplanned 5-week dragline outage at Bear Run led to a production loss of 400,000 tons, temporarily increasing costs above expected levels.
Company Guidance
During the Peabody Q3 2025 earnings call, guidance highlighted several key metrics and projections. The company reported a GAAP net loss of $70.1 million, but adjusted EBITDA was nearly $100 million, reflecting strong operational performance. Seaborne thermal coal volumes exceeded expectations, boosting segment margins by 10% quarter-over-quarter. Peabody anticipates seaborne met coal volumes to increase to 2.4 million tons in Q4, with costs expected to be $112.50 per ton. In the Powder River Basin, volumes are projected to reach 23 million tons at a cost of $11.25 per ton, while other U.S. thermal coal shipments are expected at 3.6 million tons with costs around $45 per ton. The company is on track to start longwall production at the Centurion mine in early 2026, which is expected to enhance its metallurgical coal portfolio realizations from 70% to 80% of the benchmark. Peabody also highlighted favorable trends in U.S. thermal coal, with coal generation up 11% year-to-date, driven by a 2% increase in total U.S. electricity demand. Overall, the company remains focused on expanding free cash flows and maximizing shareholder returns.

Peabody Energy Comm Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Peabody Energy demonstrates a stable financial position with strong balance sheet metrics and positive cash flow trends. Despite facing revenue declines, the company maintains profitability and efficient cash management. The low leverage and strong equity position provide a solid foundation for future growth and resilience against market fluctuations.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Peabody Energy has shown a decline in revenue over the TTM period, with a negative revenue growth rate of -3.63%. However, the company maintains a stable net profit margin of 8.73% and an EBIT margin of 12.79%, indicating reasonable profitability despite revenue challenges. The gross profit margin has decreased compared to previous years, reflecting increased cost pressures.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The company's balance sheet is strong with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.014, indicating minimal leverage and financial risk. The return on equity is solid at 9.96%, showcasing effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio stands at a healthy level, reflecting a strong capital structure.
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
Peabody Energy's cash flow statement shows positive free cash flow growth of 18.46% in the TTM period, indicating improved cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust at 0.83, suggesting efficient cash conversion. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is moderate at 0.27, indicating room for improvement in cash retention.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue3.96B4.24B4.95B4.98B3.32B2.88B
Gross Profit434.90M815.80M1.56B1.69B765.20M356.20M
EBITDA453.60M954.90M1.51B1.79B907.00M-1.32B
Net Income-32.70M370.90M759.60M1.30B360.10M-1.87B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets5.74B5.95B5.96B5.61B4.95B4.67B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments603.30M700.40M969.30M1.31B954.30M709.20M
Total Debt407.60M467.20M399.20M361.60M1.18B1.61B
Total Liabilities2.16B2.24B2.35B2.32B3.13B3.69B
Stockholders Equity3.54B3.65B3.55B3.23B1.76B929.60M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow87.50M204.00M687.20M949.40M236.90M-207.20M
Operating Cash Flow533.20M606.50M1.04B1.17B420.00M-9.70M
Investing Cash Flow-609.60M-598.10M-342.60M-28.70M-131.50M-206.70M
Financing Cash Flow-81.00M-276.00M-460.30M-681.60M-43.40M193.40M

Peabody Energy Comm Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price29.94
Price Trends
50DMA
25.11
Positive
100DMA
20.25
Positive
200DMA
17.21
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.44
Positive
RSI
56.12
Neutral
STOCH
50.13
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BTU, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 29.94 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 30.29, above the 50-day MA of 25.11, and above the 200-day MA of 17.21, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.44 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 56.12 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.13 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BTU.

Peabody Energy Comm Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
72
Outperform
$3.20B13.1413.11%11.25%-9.45%-46.17%
67
Neutral
$1.38B9.8628.59%4.01%-20.92%-26.59%
66
Neutral
$3.65B90.281.95%0.50%-27.62%-90.48%
65
Neutral
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
61
Neutral
$3.64B-0.87%1.16%-7.21%
57
Neutral
$2.26B-2.29%-29.63%-108.26%
45
Neutral
$1.83B-7.40%1.72%-16.99%-184.02%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
BTU
Peabody Energy Comm
29.94
3.19
11.93%
ARLP
Alliance Resource
24.95
0.78
3.23%
NRP
Natural Resource PRN
104.87
9.91
10.44%
AMR
Alpha Metallurgical Resources
181.77
-41.17
-18.47%
METC
Ramaco Resources
27.87
17.66
172.97%
HCC
Warrior Met Coal
69.49
1.86
2.75%

Peabody Energy Comm Corporate Events

Peabody Energy’s Earnings Call: Strong Q3 Amid Challenges
Nov 1, 2025

Peabody Energy’s recent earnings call conveyed a sentiment of cautious optimism, underscored by robust operational performance and promising future developments. The company is poised for growth with the upcoming Centurion mine and favorable market conditions in the U.S. thermal coal segment. However, financial setbacks due to acquisition termination costs and challenges in the seaborne met coal market were highlighted as areas of concern.

Peabody Energy Reports Q3 2025 Financial Results
Oct 31, 2025

Peabody Energy Corporation, a major player in the coal industry, is known for its production of coal used in energy and steel manufacturing, with a commitment to sustainability shaping its strategic direction.

Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Peabody Energy Announces Q3 2025 Dividend Amid Loss
Neutral
Oct 30, 2025

On October 30, 2025, Peabody Energy announced a quarterly dividend of $0.075 per share, payable on December 3, 2025. The company reported a net loss of $70.1 million for Q3 2025, attributed to costs from a terminated acquisition, but achieved an adjusted EBITDA of $99.5 million, driven by increased revenues and improved coal shipment volumes. Peabody is advancing its rare earth initiative and benefiting from favorable U.S. policies supporting coal-fueled plants.

The most recent analyst rating on (BTU) stock is a Hold with a $31.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Peabody Energy Comm stock, see the BTU Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Peabody Energy Updates By-Laws for Governance Clarity
Neutral
Oct 17, 2025

On October 14, 2025, Peabody Energy Corporation’s Board of Directors amended and restated the company’s by-laws, which became effective the same day. The changes include new procedures and disclosure requirements for director nominations and stockholder meeting proposals, as well as clarifications on meeting conduct and the addition of a severability provision. These updates aim to streamline governance and enhance transparency in the company’s operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (BTU) stock is a Buy with a $34.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Peabody Energy Comm stock, see the BTU Stock Forecast page.

Legal Proceedings
Peabody Energy Faces Arbitration with Anglo American
Negative
Oct 3, 2025

Peabody Energy Corporation announced that Anglo American Plc has initiated arbitration proceedings following the termination of purchase agreements related to Anglo’s steelmaking coal assets. Peabody asserts that a material adverse change justified the termination and has requested the return of the remaining $46 million of the initial $75 million deposit, after Anglo returned $29 million.

The most recent analyst rating on (BTU) stock is a Hold with a $17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Peabody Energy Comm stock, see the BTU Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Peabody Energy to Present at UBS Conference
Positive
Sep 3, 2025

Peabody Energy Corporation announced its participation in the UBS Global Materials Conference on September 3, 2025, where it plans to discuss its strategic focus and recent business developments. The company has achieved record safety and environmental performance in 2024 and is expanding its steelmaking coal production, particularly through its Centurion Mine, to meet rising demand in Asia, positioning itself for significant growth in the coming years.

The most recent analyst rating on (BTU) stock is a Hold with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Peabody Energy Comm stock, see the BTU Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Peabody Energy Ends Acquisition After Mine Incident
Negative
Aug 19, 2025

On August 19, 2025, Peabody Energy Corporation announced the termination of its planned acquisition of Anglo American’s steelmaking coal assets due to a material adverse change following an ignition event at the Moranbah North Mine on March 31, 2025. The decision was made as no revised agreement was reached to address the long-term impacts of the event, which affected the most significant mine in the acquisition. Peabody will continue to focus on its strategy to create value from its existing asset portfolio, including the termination of the related Dawson Mine sale agreement with PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama.

The most recent analyst rating on (BTU) stock is a Hold with a $18.30 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Peabody Energy Comm stock, see the BTU Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Peabody Energy Appoints New Chief Commercial Officer
Positive
Aug 11, 2025

On August 11, 2025, Peabody Energy Corporation announced the appointment of Malcolm J. Roberts as the Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer, effective September 1, 2025. Roberts, who has been with the company since 2021, will receive a comprehensive compensation package, including a base salary and incentive opportunities, as part of his new role. This strategic appointment is expected to strengthen Peabody Energy’s commercial operations and enhance its market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (BTU) stock is a Buy with a $29.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Peabody Energy Comm stock, see the BTU Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 04, 2025