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Alliance Resource
(NASDAQ:ARLP)
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Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
$30.00
â–²(13.34% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/27/26
ARLP scores well on strong cash generation and healthy profitability, supported by a positive earnings update with tightened guidance and improved cost performance and distribution coverage. Valuation is attractive (P/E ~11) with a high yield (~9.09%). The main constraints are commodity-cycle normalization versus 2022–2023 highs, rising debt, and some near-term headwinds (softer coal pricing and export logistics).
Positive Factors
Contracted Volume Visibility
Expanded contracted volumes provide multi-year revenue visibility and reduce reliance on spot-market demand. With substantial 2027 commitments and additional tons secured through 2028, ARLP has a firmer base for planning production, capital allocation, and cash generation.
Negative Factors
Cyclical Earnings Normalization
ARLP remains profitable, but results are below the exceptional levels achieved earlier in the cycle. The decline in revenue and margins shows that earnings power remains sensitive to coal-market conditions, creating a less consistent growth profile over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Contracted Volume Visibility
Expanded contracted volumes provide multi-year revenue visibility and reduce reliance on spot-market demand. With substantial 2027 commitments and additional tons secured through 2028, ARLP has a firmer base for planning production, capital allocation, and cash generation.
Read all positive factors
Alliance Resource Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Adjusted EBITDA by Segment
Isolates operating profitability for each segment after common adjustments, showing which parts of the business generate cash and which drag on margins. Useful for spotting exposure to coal price swings, cost inflation, or operational inefficiencies that could affect distributable cash and valuation.
Isolates operating profitability for each segment after common adjustments, showing which parts of the business generate cash and which drag on margins. Useful for spotting exposure to coal price swings, cost inflation, or operational inefficiencies that could affect distributable cash and valuation.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAlliance Resource (ARLP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.43B
Dividend Yield9%
Average Volume (3M)277.85K
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.1
Beta (1Y)0.03
Revenue Growth-1.92%
EPS Growth26.98%
CountryUS
Employees3,575
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryCoal
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.40
Shares Outstanding128,658,800
10 Day Avg. Volume256,384
30 Day Avg. Volume277,847
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.76
Price to Book (P/B)1.62
Price to Sales (P/S)1.36
P/FCF Ratio7.85
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.04
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.62
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.49
Enterprise Value/Ebitda4.99
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)2.45
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.23B
Alliance Resource Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. (ARLP) operates as a diversified natural resource enterprise, with a primary focus on extracting and supplying coal to utility companies and industrial customers across the United States. The company's business act...
How the Company Makes Money
ARLP primarily makes money by selling coal under supply contracts to power generation and industrial customers. Revenue is generated when ARLP mines coal from its operated mines and delivers (or arranges delivery of) contracted tons at agreed pric...
Alliance Resource Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 26, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 01, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was strongly positive, supported by higher revenue, net income, adjusted EBITDA, coal volumes, royalty results, cash flow, distribution coverage, and improved operating costs. Management also highlighted the Metiki reopening, expanded contracted volumes, export opportunities, and favorable long-term electricity demand trends. These positives outweighed lower coal and sequential oil and gas pricing, export logistics constraints, measured near-term solicitation activity, higher net debt, and acquisition-related offsets.Positive Updates
Strong Consolidated Third-Quarter Results
Total revenues increased 5.5% year over year to $603 million and 9.3% sequentially. Net income attributable to ARLP increased 46.8% year over year to $140 million, or $1.08 per basic and diluted limited partner unit, and 75.5% sequentially. Adjusted EBITDA attributable to ARLP increased 26.3% year over year to $234 million and 26.4% sequentially.
Negative Updates
Lower Coal Pricing
The average coal sales price per ton declined 8.3% year over year and 1.7% sequentially to $53.93, primarily because of a higher sales mix of lower-priced Tunnel Ridge volumes.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Consolidated Third-Quarter Results
Total revenues increased 5.5% year over year to $603 million and 9.3% sequentially. Net income attributable to ARLP increased 46.8% year over year to $140 million, or $1.08 per basic and diluted limited partner unit, and 75.5% sequentially. Adjusted EBITDA attributable to ARLP increased 26.3% year over year to $234 million and 26.4% sequentially.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For 2026, Alliance expects total coal sales volumes of 34.5 million to 35.5 million tons, coal sales price per ton of $54.25 to $54.75, and segment adjusted EBITDA expense per ton of $37.50 to $38.50; its tightened oil and gas royalty volume ranges reflect a slightly higher natural gas weighting, while consolidated guidance includes ranges for net income and adjusted EBITDA attributable to noncontrolling interests detailed in the press release. The company added 4.2 million committed and priced tons through 2028, has 31.7 million tons committed and priced for 2027, including 700 thousand tons for Metiki, expects 2027 Metiki production to be approximately 550 thousand tons higher than 2026 with EBITDA expense per ton lower than 2026, and has 3.7 million tons committed and priced for 2026 and 3 million tons for 2027 in export markets; it could exceed this year’s volume by half million or a million tons, while Metiki could supply 150 to 200 tons in the met market, and 2027 consolidated coal-segment revenues are expected to be equal to if not slightly higher than current levels.Alliance Resource Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
68
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.21B | 2.19B | 2.45B | 2.57B | 2.42B | 1.57B |
| Gross Profit | 551.99M | 468.42M | 507.48M | 751.49M | 741.20M | 289.36M |
| EBITDA | 717.35M | 675.19M | 702.17M | 948.52M | 956.14M | 483.47M |
| Net Income | 310.92M | 311.16M | 360.86M | 630.12M | 586.20M | 182.77M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.31B | 2.85B | 2.92B | 2.79B | 2.73B | 2.16B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 84.81M | 71.21M | 136.96M | 59.81M | 296.02M | 122.40M |
| Total Debt | 679.60M | 479.96M | 486.80M | 350.82M | 434.31M | 450.66M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.28B | 993.57M | 1.06B | 929.83M | 1.02B | 933.34M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.85B | 1.84B | 1.83B | 1.83B | 1.61B | 1.21B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 399.85M | 380.02M | 374.39M | 362.08M | 515.96M | 272.20M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 655.38M | 651.14M | 803.13M | 830.64M | 802.35M | 426.14M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -542.82M | -331.25M | -440.66M | -559.73M | -403.34M | -143.63M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -122.37M | -385.73M | -285.32M | -507.12M | -225.39M | -215.69M |
Alliance Resource Technical Analysis
Positive
26.47
Price Trends
25.71
Positive
25.01
Positive
24.86
Positive
Market Momentum
0.18
Negative
67.59
Neutral
84.04
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ARLP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 26.47 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 25.11, above the 50-day MA of 25.71, and above the 200-day MA of 24.86, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.18 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.59 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.04 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ARLP.
Alliance Resource Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $3.43B | 11.07 | 17.21% | 9.00% | -1.92% | 26.98% | |
67 Neutral | $4.61B | 21.00 | 10.02% | 0.37% | 37.47% | 439.91% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
65 Neutral | $4.51B | 45.66 | 2.70% | 0.44% | 30.21% | -10.03% | |
55 Neutral | $2.14B | -46.96 | -2.99% | 2.62% | -12.92% | -25.84% | |
55 Neutral | $2.84B | -15.51 | -5.29% | 1.29% | -0.68% | -233.93% | |
49 Neutral | $452.11M | -6.50 | -13.54% | 5.32% | -17.65% | -157.95% |
* Energy Sector Average
ARLP
Alliance Resource
26.68
4.61
20.90%
AMR
Alpha Metallurgical Resources
168.57
3.76
2.28%
METC
Ramaco Resources
7.67
-20.55
-72.82%
HCC
Warrior Met Coal
87.35
23.11
35.97%
BTU
Peabody Energy Comm
23.32
-3.85
-14.17%
CNR
Core Natural Resources
90.87
10.91
13.64%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.