BRC (BRCC) AI Stock Analysis

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BRC

(NYSE:BRCC)

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Rating:51Neutral

Price Target:$10.00▼(-0.89% Downside)

Action:reiterated

Date:11/04/26

BRCC’s score is driven primarily by improving but still mixed fundamentals: sharp revenue growth and meaningfully reduced leverage are offset by continued net losses and uneven free-cash-flow generation. Technicals add near-term caution with the stock below key longer-term moving averages and weak RSI. The latest earnings call was a relative positive due to reaffirmed 2026 guidance and operational improvement initiatives, but tempered by a lowered fourth-quarter profitability outlook and cost/category headwinds. Valuation remains constrained by negative earnings and no dividend support.

Positive Factors

Packaged coffee growth and share gainsBlack Rifle is gaining share while expanding retail distribution, indicating improving brand relevance and execution in its core category. Growth materially above the market can support greater shelf presence, stronger retailer relationships, and a durable base for continued revenue expansion.

Negative Factors

Profitability remains inconsistentDespite strong revenue growth, the company has not yet converted that scale into consistent GAAP profitability or positive free cash flow. Continued losses can constrain reinvestment and financial flexibility, while the lack of proven earnings conversion makes the business model less resilient through operating pressure.

BRC Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Revenue by SegmentBreaks down revenue across different business units, highlighting which areas are driving growth and where strategic focus may be needed.

Chart Insights

Wholesale has become the clear growth engine, steadily taking more share since 2022 while DTC shows a multi-year downtrend and Outpost remains flat-to-down; that shift boosts top-line scale but likely compresses margins and reduces direct customer control. Seasonal Q4 lifts persist, so holiday demand still matters, but the strategic risk is heavier reliance on wholesale partners—watch customer concentration, DTC acquisition/retention metrics, and outpost same-store performance to judge whether growth is sustainable or margin-dilutive.

Data provided by:

The Fly

BRC (BRCC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap: $328.75M
Dividend Yield: ―
Average Volume (3M): 137.53K
Price to Earnings (P/E): -17.7
Beta (1Y): 1.61
Revenue Growth: 11.66%
EPS Growth: 59.54%
Country: US
Employees: 468
Sector: Consumer Defensive
Sector Strength: 62
Industry: Packaged Foods

BRC Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

BRC Inc., operating through its subsidiaries, focuses on sourcing, roasting, and distributing coffee, along with coffee accessories and branded apparel. The company also extends its activities to media production, including podcasts and both digital...

BRC Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 02, 2026(Q3-2026)|% Change Since:-20.36%|Next Earnings Date:Mar 08, 2027

Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call was predominantly positive. Management highlighted strong packaged coffee growth, market share and distribution gains, improving adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow, a reaffirmed full-year outlook, and Project CORE actions intended to simplify the business and improve profitability. These positives outweighed challenges including RTD declines, energy-business challenges, higher freight and fuel costs, noncash impairment charges, lower fourth-quarter profitability expectations, and revenue headwinds from divestitures and outpost closures.

Positive Updates

Strong Year-to-Date Revenue Growth

Revenue increased 14% year over year through the first nine months of 2026, with growth in both wholesale and direct-to-consumer businesses.

Negative Updates

Ready-to-Drink Coffee Category Decline

Over the past 52 weeks, the single-serve ready-to-drink coffee category declined 4%, while Black Rifle's RTD retail sales declined 7%. Management described category conditions as challenging and said the focus is on stronger returns, productivity, and lowering cost to serve.

Company Guidance

Management reaffirmed its 2026 outlook of at least 8% revenue growth or approximately $430 million and at least 35% adjusted EBITDA growth or approximately $29 million; the fourth-quarter guidance floor implies revenue of at least $106 million versus $113 million last year and adjusted EBITDA of approximately $6 million versus at least $8.3 million implied in August. Full-year gross margin remains guided to 34% to 36%, while fourth-quarter gross margin is now expected to be approximately 34% versus approximately 36% in August. The fourth-quarter comparison includes approximately $5 million in liquidation revenue last year that is not expected to repeat at that level and approximately $3 million of revenue headwind this year from a recent divestiture and the planned outpost closures; once completed, the outpost closures are expected to reduce annualized revenue by approximately $8 million to $10 million. Management is not in a position right now to give long term guidance and will share its 2027 outlook on the fourth quarter earnings call.

BRC Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong top-line momentum (TTM revenue up ~171%) and a materially improved balance sheet with much lower debt, but profitability remains inconsistent (TTM operating metrics still slightly negative; ~-$12M net loss) and free cash flow is still slightly negative, limiting overall financial quality.

Income Statement

46Neutral

Balance Sheet

63Positive

Cash Flow

40Negative

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	437.02M	398.26M	391.49M	395.62M	301.31M	233.10M
Gross Profit	148.85M	137.95M	161.17M	125.45M	99.18M	89.69M
EBITDA	-3.54M	-12.40M	13.90M	-42.94M	-331.70M	-8.74M
Net Income	-6.67M	-11.91M	-2.95M	-16.75M	-82.91M	-13.85M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	179.38M	209.24M	227.38M	235.78M	225.33M	87.08M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	9.20M	4.33M	6.81M	12.45M	38.99M	18.33M
Total Debt	45.61M	62.03M	96.70M	109.24M	70.30M	35.00M
Total Liabilities	111.90M	141.23M	177.89M	189.27M	129.40M	236.57M
Stockholders Equity	46.05M	45.65M	13.17M	13.27M	25.80M	-149.49M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-613.00K	-13.47M	2.64M	-52.19M	-146.59M	-26.98M
Operating Cash Flow	1.68M	-9.81M	11.31M	-24.97M	-116.19M	-7.69M
Investing Cash Flow	3.12M	1.42M	-7.71M	-21.51M	-30.40M	-19.29M
Financing Cash Flow	-5.08M	5.91M	-10.70M	21.40M	167.25M	9.68M

BRC Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative

Last Price10.09

Price Trends

50DMA9.85Positive

100DMA10.12Negative

200DMA10.25Negative

Market Momentum

MACD0.01Positive

RSI46.77Neutral

STOCH36.64Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BRCC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 10.09 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.84, above the 50-day MA of 9.85, and below the 200-day MA of 10.25, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.77 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.64 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BRCC.

BRC Risk Analysis

BRC disclosed 63 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. BRC reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added

3 New Risks

1.Our Class A common stock has previously traded below $1.00 per share, and if it were to trade below $1.00 in the future, it could create an imminent risk of delisting from the New York Stock Exchange ("NYSE").Q2, 2026

2.A reverse stock split, if effected, may not increase the price of our Class A Common Stock.Q2, 2026

3.We may not be able to maintain the listing of our Class A Common Stock on the NYSE.Q4, 2025

BRC Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (62)

Financial Indicators

BRCC against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
JVA	72Outperform	$28.54M	6.08	16.21%	1.59%	8.22%	154.34%
Sector *	62Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
LSF	55Neutral	$27.20M	-6.41	-11.36%	―	73.26%	-239.94%
WEST	54Neutral	$888.66M	-15.34	-21.74%	―	16.29%	42.55%
BRCC	51Neutral	$245.99M	-17.70	-14.29%	―	11.66%	59.54%
JBSS	48Neutral	$656.12M	11.81	14.95%	7.92%	3.13%	-14.89%
OTLY	45Neutral	$259.13M	-2.77	675.83%	―	12.01%	61.83%

* Consumer Defensive Sector Average

Performance Comparison

BRCC and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
BRCC	Brc Inc.	10.09	-2.61	-20.55%
JVA	Coffee Holding	5.02	1.29	34.58%
JBSS	John B. Sanfilippo & Son	56.80	-7.37	-11.49%
LSF	Laird Superfood, Inc.	2.50	-0.27	-9.75%
OTLY	Oatly Group Ab	7.96	-4.93	-38.25%
WEST	Westrock Coffee Company	8.59	4.26	98.38%

BRC Corporate Events

Regulatory Filings and ComplianceStock Split

BRC Announces Reverse Stock Split of Common Shares

Neutral

Aug 24, 2026

On August 21, 2026, BRC Inc. implemented a 1-for-10 reverse stock split for both its Class A and Class B common shares through charter amendments filed in Delaware, leaving authorized share counts and par values unchanged while consolidating every 10...

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Nov 04, 2026

BRC AI Stock Analysis