Banca Mediolanum (BNCDY) AI Stock Analysis

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Banca Mediolanum

(OTC:BNCDY)

Rating:68Neutral

Price Target:―

Banca Mediolanum's strong financial growth and attractive valuation are offset by operational inefficiencies and potential regulatory challenges. While the company is well-positioned for continued growth, addressing cash flow and operational efficiency is crucial for sustaining long-term performance.

Banca Mediolanum (BNCDY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$12.56B

Dividend Yield4.39%

Average Volume (3M)3.00

Price to Earnings (P/E)10.2

Beta (1Y)0.80

Revenue Growth11.63%

EPS Growth29.42%

CountryUS

Employees3,871

SectorFinancial

Sector Strength81

IndustryBanks - Regional

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.69

Shares Outstanding372,686,200

10 Day Avg. Volume0

30 Day Avg. Volume3

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio21.77

Price to Book (P/B)8.43

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio413.40

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price TargetN/A

Price Target UpsideN/A

Rating ConsensusN/A

Number of Analyst Covering0

Banca Mediolanum Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBanca Mediolanum (BNCDY) is an Italian banking group that operates in the financial services sector. The company offers a comprehensive range of banking products and services, including savings accounts, loans, mortgages, insurance, and investment solutions. Banca Mediolanum primarily targets retail clients, providing personalized financial advisory services through its network of financial advisors, as well as through digital platforms to ensure accessibility and convenience for its customers.

How the Company Makes MoneyBanca Mediolanum generates revenue through a diverse range of financial services. The company earns interest income from loans and mortgages offered to its clients. Additionally, it collects fees and commissions from the distribution of financial products, such as insurance policies and investment funds. Banca Mediolanum also benefits from asset management services, where it charges management fees for overseeing clients' investment portfolios. The company's strategic partnerships with insurance and investment firms further enhance its product offerings and contribute to its earnings. Moreover, a focus on digital banking services helps the bank reduce operational costs and attract tech-savvy customers, boosting its revenue potential.

Banca Mediolanum Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Banca Mediolanum's financial performance demonstrates strong revenue and profit growth, underpinned by a high gross profit margin and improved net profit margin. However, negative EBITDA and cash flow issues suggest operational and liquidity challenges that need addressing.

Income Statement

Positive

Banca Mediolanum has demonstrated a robust revenue growth trajectory, with a significant increase in total revenue from 2022 to 2023. The Gross Profit Margin is exceptionally high at 135.9% for 2023, indicating strong profitability. However, the negative EBITDA in 2023 is a concern, suggesting potential operational inefficiencies or non-cash expenses impacting earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization. The Net Profit Margin improved significantly to 43.9% in 2023, reflecting effective cost management or revenue growth. Overall, the income statement reflects strong growth but with some operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet of Banca Mediolanum shows a stable financial position with a Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 2.41, which is relatively high but typical in the banking industry due to high leverage. The Return on Equity improved to 23.8% in 2023, indicating efficient use of equity to generate profits. The Equity Ratio remains low at 4.4%, which points to a high reliance on debt financing, a common characteristic in banking. Overall, the balance sheet reflects stability with a focus on leveraging debt for growth.

Cash Flow

Neutral

The cash flow statement raises some concerns, with a negative Free Cash Flow in 2023 indicating challenges in generating cash from operations after capital expenditures. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income ratio is negative, suggesting issues in converting accounting profits into cash flows. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income ratio also reflects negative performance, highlighting potential liquidity constraints. Despite the company's growth, cash flow management appears to be a critical area for improvement.

TTM	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020	Dec 2019
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
2.64B	1.87B	1.46B	5.73B	3.11B	5.76B
	Gross Profit
1.19B	2.54B	545.36M	4.81B	2.33B	5.00B
	EBIT
1.21B	1.16B	741.41M	890.47M	531.42M	738.99M
	EBITDA
556.93M	-10.20M	741.41M	890.47M	531.42M	738.99M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
908.46M	821.87M	506.83M	713.05M	434.46M	565.43M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
508.51M	188.13M	2.75B	5.32B	664.61M	563.43M
	Total Assets
47.37B	77.83B	73.60B	73.52B	59.03B	53.44B
	Total Debt
109.22M	8.32B	372.29M	68.01M	74.38M	148.06M
	Net Debt
-399.29M	-384.78M	-2.38B	-5.25B	-590.24M	-415.37M
	Total Liabilities
45.31B	74.38B	70.66B	70.64B	56.29B	51.09B
	Stockholders Equity
2.06B	3.45B	2.94B	2.88B	2.74B	2.34B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
40.18M	-1.81B	2.24B	848.49M	-49.76M	328.05M
	Operating Cash Flow
40.18M	-1.75B	2.30B	909.30M	-7.00M	363.26M
	Investing Cash Flow
0.00	-23.93M	-34.06M	-38.14M	-38.16M	-16.37M
	Financing Cash Flow
0.00	-385.65M	-428.66M	-737.97M	4.92M	-294.27M

Banca Mediolanum Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price34.45

Price Trends

50DMA

30.45

Positive

100DMA

28.31

Positive

200DMA

25.60

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

1.19

Negative

RSI

68.50

Neutral

STOCH

93.51

Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BNCDY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 34.45 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 31.79, above the 50-day MA of 30.45, and above the 200-day MA of 25.60, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.19 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.50 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 93.51 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BNCDY.

Banca Mediolanum Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (64)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
LPLA	80 Outperform	$30.73B	26.59	40.36%	0.32%	26.32%	8.63%
AMP	79 Outperform	$49.41B	17.63	58.11%	1.16%	9.20%	0.05%
MET	79 Outperform	$53.93B	13.08	16.08%	2.80%	8.77%	110.90%
PFG	73 Outperform	$18.05B	17.26	9.70%	3.76%	5.84%	-10.64%
PRU	71 Outperform	$37.48B	16.75	8.04%	5.16%	2.47%	6.88%
BNCDY	68 Neutral	$12.56B	10.17	27.96%	4.39%	11.63%	29.42%
Sector *	64 Neutral	$12.66B	9.79	7.67%	17015.07%	12.23%	-6.06%

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

BNCDY

Banca Mediolanum

33.93

12.05

55.07%

AMP

Ameriprise Financial

508.21

72.79

16.72%

LPLA

LPL Financial

377.40

93.98

33.16%

MET

Metlife

77.66

7.18

10.19%

PFG

Principal Financial

77.35

-2.03

-2.56%

PRU

Prudential Financial

102.32

-11.64

-10.21%

Banca Mediolanum Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2025

(Q3-2024)

% Change Since: 10.20%|

Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call highlighted Banca Mediolanum's strong financial performance, with record net income and significant growth in managed assets and customer acquisition. However, concerns about regulatory impacts and increased funding costs pose challenges. Despite these lowlights, the overall outlook remains positive with strong market positioning and strategic growth initiatives.

Q3-2024 Updates

Positive Updates

Record-Breaking Financial Performance

Net income reached EUR 674.3 million, exceeding last year's 9-month results by 18%. Q3 alone reported EUR 224.4 million, with a significant double-digit growth in net commission income up 13% to over EUR 874 million.

Strong Asset Under Management Growth

Managed assets achieved a notably positive trend, reaching EUR 5.44 billion, almost doubling last year's figure, and total net inflows marked a 28% increase for the 9 months.

Customer and Digital Channel Expansion

Record acquisition of 149,000 new bank customers, a 7% increase, with the digital channel Selfy contributing 21,200 new customers, a 5% increase.

Positive Market Conditions and Net Inflows

Market effects contributed to net income with positive mark-to-market and performance fees totaling EUR 51 million compared to a negligible amount last year, and total assets surged to EUR 133 billion, a 13% increase.

Strong Performance in Spain

Net income in Spain grew by 10% to EUR 54.4 million, with total assets increasing by 15% and managed assets by 22%.

Negative Updates

Potential Impact of Regulatory Changes

The implementation of Basel III regulations in 2025 is projected to reduce the CET1 ratio by around 2 percentage points, indicating a potential future challenge.

Higher Funding Costs

The higher than expected inflows due to promotional offers led to increased funding costs, impacting the net interest income growth projections.

Market Dependency and Future Uncertainties

Future performance heavily depends on market conditions, with potential competition from BTPs and rate fluctuations affecting managed asset inflows and NII projections.

Company Guidance

During Banca Mediolanum's Q3 2024 earnings call, the company provided guidance on several key financial metrics, highlighting a strong performance and positive outlook. Net income reached EUR 674.3 million, marking an 18% increase compared to the same period last year, with Q3 alone contributing EUR 224.4 million. Net interest income remained robust at over EUR 630 million, despite initial ECB rate cuts, and is projected to grow by 8% in 2024. The bank's net commission income experienced a significant 13% rise, totaling over EUR 874 million, with recurring fees hitting a record EUR 1.13 billion, up 14.5%. The operating margin soared to EUR 848 million, a 16% increase, while the cost/income ratio improved to 38.3%. Total net inflows over the first nine months were EUR 7.16 billion, a 28% increase, with managed assets contributing EUR 5.44 billion. The company's CET1 ratio stood strong at 23.4%, and an interim dividend of EUR 0.37 per share was announced. With a positive market outlook and strategic promotional efforts, Banca Mediolanum anticipates maintaining strong inflows and leveraging higher commission income to offset potential net interest income reductions in 2025.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.