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BlueScope Steel
(OTC:BLSFY)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$118.00
â–²(7.08% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/19/26
The score is driven primarily by a solid financial foundation (low leverage and improved 2026 profitability) but capped by weak and choppy free cash flow conversion and multi-year revenue contraction. Earnings-call signals are constructive (positive guidance, cost-out delivery, and substantial shareholder return plans), while technicals are currently soft and valuation is mixed due to a high P/E despite a strong dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Conservative balance sheet supports resilience
Low leverage and a substantial equity base give BlueScope financial flexibility through steel-cycle downturns. This supports continued investment, helps absorb operating volatility, and reduces dependence on external funding.
Negative Factors
Multi-year revenue contraction and volatile margins
Persistent revenue contraction indicates weaker underlying demand or pricing than in the prior cycle. Margin recovery has been substantial but remains well below historical peaks, highlighting earnings sensitivity to steel spreads and volumes.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative balance sheet supports resilience
Low leverage and a substantial equity base give BlueScope financial flexibility through steel-cycle downturns. This supports continued investment, helps absorb operating volatility, and reduces dependence on external funding.
Read all positive factors
BlueScope Steel (BLSFY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$10.11B
Dividend Yield6.19%
Average Volume (3M)0.00
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.5
Beta (1Y)1.28
Revenue Growth7.42%
EPS Growth844.15%
CountryUS
Employees16,500
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustrySteel
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)9.10
Shares Outstanding87,615,486
10 Day Avg. Volume0
30 Day Avg. Volume0
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.02
Price to Book (P/B)1.49
Price to Sales (P/S)0.94
P/FCF Ratio60.83
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)9.41
Revenue Forecast (FY)$12.57B
BlueScope Steel Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Headquartered in Melbourne, Australia, BlueScope Steel Limited, founded in 1885 (and known as BHP Steel Limited until its rebranding in November 2003), is a prominent global producer and supplier of metal-coated and painted steel building material...
How the Company Makes Money
BlueScope makes money primarily by selling steel and steel-related products and solutions through a mix of upstream steelmaking and downstream value-added processing and building products.
Key revenue streams include:
- Flat steel manufacturing a...
BlueScope Steel Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 16, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| Next Earnings Date:Feb 15, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a predominantly positive operational and financial picture: strong group profitability, a standout North American performance, delivery and overachievement of cost-out targets, major project commissioning milestones (MCL7 and NZ EAF), and a materially increased and repeatable shareholder return program supported by a strengthened balance sheet. Material challenges remain — a serious safety incident, project timing and inflation overruns, cyclical weakness in Asian spreads (driven by Chinese exports) and short-term commissioning impacts (notably in New Zealand) — but management has clear mitigation actions, delivered on commitments, and articulated an outlook with H1 FY'27 guidance of $860–$960 million underlying EBIT. On balance, the positives and execution successes substantially outweigh the near-term operational and cyclical headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong Group Profitability
Underlying EBIT of $1.27 billion for FY'26, second half EBIT of $716 million (above the top end of guidance), and underlying net profit after tax just over $800 million — a material improvement vs FY'25.
Negative Updates
Serious Safety Incident at Port Kembla
A tragic contractor death at Port Kembla in November is under regulatory investigation; management acknowledged safety performance 'not yet where it needs to be' and highlighted ongoing Global Safety Refocus work.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Group Profitability
Underlying EBIT of $1.27 billion for FY'26, second half EBIT of $716 million (above the top end of guidance), and underlying net profit after tax just over $800 million — a material improvement vs FY'25.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
BlueScope guided underlying EBIT for 1H FY27 of $860–$960 million (subject to steel spreads, FX and market conditions), versus FY26 underlying EBIT of $1.27 billion and FY26 2H EBIT of $716 million; regionally it expects North America to be >1/3 higher than 2H FY26 (North Star spread and capacity benefits), Australia around 2/3 higher (higher realized spreads, stronger domestic volumes and MCL7 transition impacts), New Zealand & Pacific about 1/3 lower (EAF commissioning impacts), Asia broadly in line with 2H FY26, and corporate/group approaching ~3x 2H FY26 (non-repeat of a $76m West Dapto land profit). The company finished FY26 with ~ $600m net debt, underlying NPAT just over $800m, FY26 free cash flow $240m and FY26 capex $1.5bn (with ~ $500m of the program to complete in FY27); typical annual capex is ~$600–700m (sustaining $450–500m; organic/growth $100–200m). BlueScope reiterated its shareholder return intent—having delivered $3.00 per share (~$1.3bn, ~10% of market cap) in calendar 2026 (including the Board‑approved $0.65 final and $0.70 special dividends), it plans to deliver at least a further $3.00 per share in calendar 2027—and expects the benefits of completed cost programs (initial $200m delivered plus an additional $150m, now expected to flow into FY27).BlueScope Steel Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
46
Neutral
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 16.30B | 16.25B | 17.06B | 18.17B | 18.99B |
| Gross Profit | 2.21B | 6.01B | 6.71B | 2.64B | 4.71B |
| EBITDA | 1.66B | 994.50M | 1.99B | 2.01B | 4.38B |
| Net Income | 784.48M | 83.80M | 805.70M | 1.01B | 2.81B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 16.40B | 15.78B | 15.68B | 15.94B | 16.61B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.17B | 857.60M | 1.09B | 1.49B | 1.68B |
| Total Debt | 1.77B | 886.00M | 721.50M | 786.50M | 1.32B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.50B | 4.51B | 4.39B | 4.90B | 6.16B |
| Stockholders Equity | 10.31B | 10.67B | 10.72B | 10.47B | 9.78B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 252.75M | 179.50M | 433.70M | 1.34B | 1.71B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.69B | 1.41B | 1.41B | 2.15B | 2.47B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.21B | -1.23B | -967.00M | -979.10M | -1.76B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -159.44M | -423.70M | -849.20M | -1.36B | -1.05B |
BlueScope Steel Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $7.77B | 13.14 | 13.65% | 1.08% | 15.23% | 1535.96% | |
66 Neutral | $11.39B | 16.02 | 5.77% | 5.46% | -0.65% | 18.90% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
61 Neutral | $10.11B | 17.51 | 7.60% | 6.19% | 7.42% | 844.15% | |
61 Neutral | $9.10B | 30.87 | 2.53% | 3.02% | 8.98% | -21.39% | |
56 Neutral | $7.13B | -7.49 | -15.23% | 6.42% | 4.14% | 52.63% | |
54 Neutral | $1.64B | -3.51 | -18.55% | 12.27% | 9.29% | -26.44% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
BLSFY
BlueScope Steel
115.43
45.28
64.55%
CLF
Cleveland-Cliffs
12.50
1.48
13.43%
CMC
Commercial Metals Company
70.28
11.19
18.94%
GGB
Gerdau SA
4.97
1.91
62.52%
SID
Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional
1.22
-0.24
-16.44%
TX
Ternium SA
58.00
25.50
78.44%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.