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BillionToOne, Inc. Class A
(NASDAQ:BLLN)
Select Model
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$115.00
▲(15.71% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/25/26
Overall score reflects strong operational/financial momentum (turn to profitability, major margin improvement, and de-risked leverage) supported by a bullish technical uptrend and positive guidance tone. The key constraint is valuation: the very high P/E leaves less room for execution misses around reimbursement timing, mix-driven margin variability, and expense growth.
Positive Factors
Strong revenue and test-volume growth
Rapid revenue and test-volume expansion indicates strengthening demand across the company’s diagnostic offerings. If management delivers its 2026 guidance, greater scale should support broader customer penetration, reinforce the commercial platform, and provide a durable base for continued investment.
Negative Factors
Thin profitability despite major margin improvement
Profitability has turned positive, but the limited bottom-line cushion leaves earnings sensitive to expense growth, reimbursement timing, and changes in revenue mix. Sustained hiring and research investment could therefore absorb much of the benefit from strong revenue growth if operating leverage develops slowly.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong revenue and test-volume growth
Rapid revenue and test-volume expansion indicates strengthening demand across the company’s diagnostic offerings. If management delivers its 2026 guidance, greater scale should support broader customer penetration, reinforce the commercial platform, and provide a durable base for continued investment.
Read all positive factors
BillionToOne, Inc. Class A (BLLN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.88B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)599.54K
Price to Earnings (P/E)151.7
Beta (1Y)0.17
Revenue Growth90.12%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees713
SectorGeneral
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustryMedical - Diagnostics & Research
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.69
Shares Outstanding42,644,386
10 Day Avg. Volume486,617
30 Day Avg. Volume599,536
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-12.02
Price to Book (P/B)7.81
Price to Sales (P/S)12.29
P/FCF Ratio238.56
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.25
Enterprise Value/Revenue15.42
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit21.64
Enterprise Value/Ebitda121.98
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$128.83Price Target Upside29.62% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)0.78
Revenue Forecast (FY)$454.77M
BillionToOne, Inc. Class A Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
BillionToOne, Inc. is a specialized diagnostics company that innovates by precisely quantifying biological data to create advanced molecular diagnostic solutions. Central to their operations is a cutting-edge molecular counting platform, meticulou...
BillionToOne, Inc. Class A Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a predominantly positive operational and financial picture: strong year-over-year revenue growth (64%), rapid test volume expansion (35%), material oncology growth (+176% YoY), sustained high gross margins (~70.5%), GAAP profitability, and a large cash balance ($549M). Management highlighted multiple product launches, supportive clinical data (NorthStar Response publication), low QC failure rates, and investments to scale commercial and lab capacity. Principal near-term headwinds are timing-related: reduced true-up revenue in the quarter, >$10M of claims held pending payer in‑network implementation, elevated operating expense from hiring and R&D, and potential short-term gross margin variability as oncology mix shifts. Given the strength of growth, profitability, product momentum and balance sheet versus the described timing and execution risks, the positives materially outweigh the negatives.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line Growth
Total revenue of $109.0M in Q2 2026, up 64% year-over-year; annualized revenue run rate of $438M.
Negative Updates
True-Up Timing and Revenue Volatility
True-up revenue declined to $2.8M in Q2 from $9.2M in Q1, creating sequential volatility; management excluded future true-ups from guidance, creating potential upside but short-term uncertainty.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line Growth
Total revenue of $109.0M in Q2 2026, up 64% year-over-year; annualized revenue run rate of $438M.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated 2026 revenue guidance of $450–$465 million (≈48%–52% growth vs. 2025) and said they expect to continue generating profitability at roughly current levels even while investing in commercial and R&D; Q2 metrics cited on the call included GAAP operating income of $5.5M (5% operating margin), adjusted EBITDA margin of 15%, net income of $8.1M ($0.15/diluted share), gross profit of $77.1M and a gross margin of 70.5%, approximately 196k tests in Q2 (+35% YoY) with an ASP of $551 (+21% YoY), free cash flow of $5.1M (operating cash flow $9.1M, capex $4M) and cash & equivalents of $549M; management noted they are not modeling incremental true‑up revenue in guidance, highlighted catalysts including expected MolDX coverage for North Star Response and a tumor‑naive MRD launch by year‑end, and plans a 62k sq ft oncology production lab (targeted production by end of 2027).BillionToOne, Inc. Class A Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
68
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
57
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||
| Total Revenue | 397.41M | 305.11M | 152.58M | 71.73M |
| Gross Profit | 283.22M | 208.46M | 80.92M | 17.31M |
| EBITDA | 50.24M | 19.76M | -27.47M | -72.94M |
| Net Income | 33.51M | 7.45M | -41.57M | -82.68M |
Balance Sheet | ||||
| Total Assets | 729.70M | 632.65M | 302.06M | 191.68M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 548.63M | 495.98M | 191.48M | 97.27M |
| Total Debt | 143.92M | 108.89M | 109.38M | 146.35M |
| Total Liabilities | 192.89M | 152.55M | 134.31M | 161.20M |
| Stockholders Equity | 536.81M | 480.11M | 167.75M | 30.47M |
Cash Flow | ||||
| Free Cash Flow | 33.17M | 15.71M | -46.78M | -59.85M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 45.35M | 24.59M | -41.38M | -53.67M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -12.22M | -8.92M | -5.43M | 82.84M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 326.54M | 288.82M | 141.02M | 13.40M |
BillionToOne, Inc. Class A Technical Analysis
Positive
99.39
Price Trends
101.26
Positive
108.59
Negative
95.77
Positive
Market Momentum
-1.35
Negative
51.86
Neutral
87.39
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BLLN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 99.39 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 104.98, below the 50-day MA of 101.26, and above the 200-day MA of 95.77, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.35 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.86 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.39 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BLLN.
BillionToOne, Inc. Class A Risk Analysis
BillionToOne, Inc. Class A disclosed 74 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. BillionToOne, Inc. Class A reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
BillionToOne, Inc. Class A Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $4.88B | 151.67 | 7.87% | ― | 90.12% | ― | |
67 Neutral | $58.51B | -303.96 | -11.73% | ― | 37.82% | 28.02% | |
61 Neutral | $5.92B | -13.60 | -15.88% | ― | 23.07% | 24.60% | |
60 Neutral | $22.37B | -47.75 | 211.46% | ― | 42.74% | -4.60% | |
55 Neutral | $6.65B | 3.83 | -15.92% | 6.20% | 10.91% | 7.18% | |
53 Neutral | $532.77M | -4.66 | -32.59% | 13.45% | -3.16% | 72.02% | |
48 Neutral | $559.39M | -7.14 | -7.87% | ― | 6.83% | -69.59% |
* General Sector Average
BLLN
BillionToOne, Inc. Class A
104.67
-4.27
-3.92%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.