BHP Group (BHP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $144.02B
• Dividend Yield: 3.82%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.55M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 15.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.86
• Revenue Growth: -7.86%
• EPS Growth: 14.17%
• Country: US
• Employees: 38,962
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Industrial Materials
• EPS (TTM): 2.00
• Shares Outstanding: 2,539,456,500
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,216,612
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,554,165
• PEG Ratio: 0.05
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.28
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.19
• P/FCF Ratio: 6.57
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.97
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.71
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.29
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 6.43
• 1Y Price Target: $44.04
• Price Target Upside: -22.46% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5

• Rating: 77 Outperform
• Price Target: $63.00 ▲(10.92% Upside)

BHP Group's overall stock score reflects its strong technical momentum and solid financial performance. The stock is currently experiencing bullish trends, supported by a robust balance sheet and efficient operations. While the valuation is moderate, the attractive dividend yield adds to its appeal. Investors should be mindful of the potential for short-term pullbacks due to overbought technical indicators.

Positive Factors

Low-Cost Production Model

BHP's low-cost production model ensures resilience against commodity price volatility, supporting long-term profitability and competitive positioning.

Stable Cash Flows

Long-term contracts provide predictable revenue streams, enhancing financial stability and enabling strategic investments in growth and sustainability.

Strong Balance Sheet

A strong balance sheet with manageable leverage allows BHP to invest in growth opportunities and weather economic downturns, supporting long-term stability.

Negative Factors

Negative Revenue Growth

Negative revenue growth indicates potential market challenges or operational inefficiencies, which could impact long-term competitiveness and profitability.

Decline in Free Cash Flow Growth

A decline in free cash flow growth may limit BHP's ability to fund new projects or return capital to shareholders, affecting future growth prospects.

Decreased Gross Profit Margin

A decreasing gross profit margin suggests rising costs or pricing pressures, which could erode profitability if not managed effectively over time.

BHP Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

BHP Group Limited operates as a resources company in Australia, Europe, China, Japan, India, South Korea, the rest of Asia, North America, South America, and internationally. The company operates through Copper, Iron Ore, and Coal segments. It engages in the mining of copper, uranium, gold, zinc, lead, molybdenum, silver, iron ore, cobalt, and metallurgical and energy coal. The company is also involved in the mining, smelting, and refining of nickel, as well as potash development activities. In addition, it provides towing, freight, marketing and trading, marketing support, finance, administrative, and other services. The company was founded in 1851 and is headquartered in Melbourne, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

BHP generates revenue primarily through the sale of its commodities, with key revenue streams coming from iron ore, copper, coal, and petroleum. The company operates on a low-cost production model, which allows it to maintain profitability even when commodity prices fluctuate. Iron ore is the largest contributor to BHP's revenue, benefiting from strong demand in markets like China. Additionally, BHP engages in long-term contracts with major customers, ensuring stable cash flows. The company also invests in technology and innovation to enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs. Partnerships with other mining companies and joint ventures in strategic projects further bolster its revenue potential, alongside a focus on sustainability that aligns with the evolving market demands.

BHP Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

BHP Group demonstrates solid financial health with strong profitability and efficient operations. While revenue growth has been a challenge, the company maintains a stable balance sheet and good cash flow generation. Continued focus on managing costs and improving revenue growth will be key to sustaining financial performance.

Income Statement

BHP Group's income statement shows a strong EBIT and EBITDA margin, indicating efficient operations. However, the revenue growth rate has been negative in recent years, which is a concern. The gross profit margin has decreased, reflecting potential cost pressures. Despite these challenges, the company maintains a solid net profit margin.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is robust with a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, suggesting manageable leverage. Return on equity is healthy, indicating effective use of shareholder funds. The equity ratio is stable, reflecting a strong asset base relative to equity.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a decline in free cash flow growth, which could impact future investments. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio remains strong, indicating good cash generation relative to earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio is moderate, suggesting room for improvement.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	51.27B	51.17B	56.03B	53.82B	65.10B	56.92B
Gross Profit	19.09B	23.86B	46.10B	27.66B	39.71B	34.04B
EBITDA	21.63B	21.59B	23.52B	27.12B	38.64B	30.23B
Net Income	9.02B	9.00B	7.90B	12.92B	22.74B	11.30B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	108.79B	108.79B	102.36B	101.30B	95.17B	108.93B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	12.17B	12.17B	12.65B	12.46B	17.54B	15.25B
Total Debt	24.50B	24.50B	20.18B	22.34B	16.43B	20.98B
Total Liabilities	56.57B	56.57B	53.24B	52.77B	46.40B	53.32B
Stockholders Equity	47.66B	47.66B	44.81B	44.50B	44.96B	51.26B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	9.30B	9.28B	11.85B	11.62B	26.06B	21.43B
Operating Cash Flow	18.70B	18.66B	20.66B	18.70B	32.17B	27.23B
Investing Cash Flow	-13.35B	-13.33B	-8.76B	-13.06B	-6.96B	-7.84B
Financing Cash Flow	-5.97B	-5.96B	-11.67B	-10.31B	-22.77B	-17.92B

BHP Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 56.80
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BHP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 56.8 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 55.51, above the 50-day MA of 54.39, and above the 200-day MA of 49.67, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.63 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.26 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.98 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BHP.

BHP Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RIO	80 Outperform	$116.60B	10.71	18.18%	5.38%	-0.44%	-4.20%
BHP	77 Outperform	$144.02B	15.66	19.51%	3.82%	-7.86%	14.17%
VALE	74 Outperform	$48.37B	9.22	13.49%	7.03%	-12.89%	-46.86%
MP	66 Neutral	$14.68B	―	-9.57%	―	39.42%	-172.40%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
NEXA	55 Neutral	$745.63M	―	-9.63%	1.81%	8.66%	66.06%
CMP	50 Neutral	$776.66M	―	-40.17%	1.61%	7.27%	27.35%

BHP Group Corporate Events

BHP Group Secures $1.5 Billion in Senior Notes Issuance

On September 2, 2025, BHP Group Limited, through its subsidiary BHP Billiton Finance (USA) Limited, entered into an underwriting agreement to issue US$500 million of 5.000% Senior Notes due 2036 and US$1 billion of 5.750% Senior Notes due 2055. These notes are fully guaranteed by BHP Group Limited and are part of the company’s strategy to optimize its capital structure and extend its debt maturity profile. This move is expected to enhance BHP’s financial flexibility and support its long-term growth initiatives, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder interests positively.

BHP Group Successfully Prices $1.5 Billion US Bond Offer

On September 2, 2025, BHP Group Limited announced the successful pricing of US$1.5 billion in senior unsecured bonds in the US market. The bond offer, which includes ten-year and thirty-year tranches, is aimed at raising funds for general corporate purposes, potentially enhancing BHP’s financial flexibility and market positioning.

BHP Group Announces Director’s Interest Change Amidst Share Vesting

On August 29, 2025, BHP Group Limited announced a change in the director’s interest notice for Mike Henry, reflecting transactions that occurred on August 22, 2025. The notice detailed the acquisition of 144,654 ordinary shares and the disposal of 66,295 shares, resulting from the vesting of performance and deferred rights under BHP’s incentive plans. This change in shareholding highlights the company’s ongoing commitment to aligning executive interests with shareholder value, potentially impacting investor confidence and market perceptions.