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AXIA Energia
(OTC:AXIAY)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$11.50
▲(6.09% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/10/26
The score is driven primarily by improving financial performance (stronger TTM cash flow and solid profitability) and a constructive earnings-call backdrop (EBITDA/margin strength, backlog visibility, and shareholder returns). Valuation adds support via a moderate P/E and high yield. Technicals are neutral, and the main constraints are operating-margin volatility plus macro/sector risks highlighted on the call (higher rates and hydrological/price volatility).
Positive Factors
Cash generation / Free cash flow
Sustained TTM free cash flow and strong operating cash generation provide durable funding for reinvestment, the elevated capex plan and shareholder returns without immediate reliance on capital markets. Over 2–6 months this supports execution of projects and liquidity for payouts or debt servicing.
Negative Factors
Operating-margin volatility
Volatile operating margins signal uneven cost absorption or variability in generation economics, complicating forecasting and reducing earnings quality. Over months this increases sensitivity to commodity prices and execution, making free cash flow and payout sustainability less certain.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation / Free cash flow
Sustained TTM free cash flow and strong operating cash generation provide durable funding for reinvestment, the elevated capex plan and shareholder returns without immediate reliance on capital markets. Over 2–6 months this supports execution of projects and liquidity for payouts or debt servicing.
Read all positive factors
AXIA Energia (AXIAY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$24.74B
Dividend Yield6.19%
Average Volume (3M)1.64M
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.0
Beta (1Y)0.41
Revenue Growth10.66%
EPS Growth56.24%
CountryUS
Employees7,168
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryRenewable Utilities
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)5.25
Shares Outstanding2,347,248,500
10 Day Avg. Volume157,759
30 Day Avg. Volume1,641,777
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.44
Price to Book (P/B)0.95
Price to Sales (P/S)2.73
P/FCF Ratio9.40
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)0.83
Revenue Forecast (FY)$9.13B
AXIA Energia Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
AXIA Energia S.A., operating with its various subsidiary companies, is a prominent entity in Brazil's electricity market, responsible for the generation, transmission, and commercialization of electrical power. The firm utilizes a diverse portfoli...
AXIA Energia Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a predominantly positive operational and strategic picture: robust EBITDA growth (+21.5%), higher generation margins, substantial ramp-up in investments (≈+50% YoY this quarter) and concrete capital-return actions (BRL 7.7 billion declared, including a BRL 2.0 billion redemption). Governance and ESG progress (Novo Mercado migration, Pro-Ethics seal, climate adaptation program 60% implemented) add to confidence. Against these positives, the company flagged headwinds from higher interest rates that pressured financial results, hydrological uncertainty driven by El Niño that could increase price volatility and affect available energy, and some short-term market/seasonal constraints. Overall, management emphasizes long-term resilience, active portfolio management and conservative capital-allocation modeling to mitigate these risks.Positive Updates
Strong EBITDA Growth
EBITDA reached BRL 6.7 billion, up 21.5% year-over-year, driven mainly by a stronger contribution from the generation segment with stable transmission performance and controlled costs.
Negative Updates
Financial Result Pressure from Higher Interest Rates
Management noted a worsening of financial results due to higher interest rates during the period and slightly higher leverage; analysts highlighted the tension between high market rates (SELIC ~14%) and regulatory returns (e.g., TNBs at ~8%), increasing cost-of-capital concerns.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong EBITDA Growth
EBITDA reached BRL 6.7 billion, up 21.5% year-over-year, driven mainly by a stronger contribution from the generation segment with stable transmission performance and controlled costs.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided to continued heavy capital deployment and shareholder returns: investments in reinforcement and improvements are targeted at roughly BRL 5–5.5 billion in 2026, with Q2 capex near BRL 3 billion (a 50% YoY increase) and Itaipu revitalization up from BRL 534 million to ~BRL 2 billion this quarter; backlog is slightly above BRL 15 billion with RAP ~BRL 2 billion/year and a generation backlog (LRCAP) of ~250 MW (~BRL 1 billion capex), and AXIA won transmission projects with NAL CapEx BRL 668 million and RAP BRL 50 million; financials and returns include Q2 EBITDA of BRL 6.7 billion (+21.5%), a higher unit generation margin (free market + MCP BRL 96 vs BRL 73 YoY; unit margin rising from ~80 to ~100 QoQ), allocable capital/shareholder returns of BRL 7.7 billion in H1 (BRL 4.0 billion approved in Q1 + BRL 3.7 billion this quarter) and ongoing redemptions (BRL 30 million test already executed, new BRL 2 billion offer at BRL 53.71/share with opt-in by Aug 14, conversion on Aug 18, payment on Aug 24), plus divestment proceeds of ~BRL 1 billion, BRL 150 million and BRL 256 million from specific transactions; ESG/climate actions: 60% of adaptation plans implemented (target completion by 2028) and 30 projects totaling BRL 78 million for Paraíba River recovery.AXIA Energia Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 44.33B | 41.28B | 40.18B | 37.16B | 34.07B | 34.63B |
| Gross Profit | 41.35B | 36.25B | 34.23B | 31.63B | 29.24B | 30.46B |
| EBITDA | 11.92B | 3.61B | 20.73B | 11.81B | 10.74B | 15.31B |
| Net Income | 12.01B | 6.56B | 10.38B | 4.55B | 3.64B | 5.65B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 277.26B | 279.69B | 289.87B | 267.06B | 270.22B | 188.30B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 26.23B | 27.55B | 35.52B | 18.97B | 22.93B | 15.67B |
| Total Debt | 73.89B | 77.26B | 78.24B | 61.83B | 61.15B | 46.14B |
| Total Liabilities | 154.97B | 161.18B | 167.87B | 154.59B | 159.19B | 111.89B |
| Stockholders Equity | 122.24B | 118.43B | 121.86B | 112.33B | 110.50B | 76.12B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 13.88B | 12.00B | 8.86B | 4.11B | -28.43B | 5.78B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 16.66B | 14.51B | 12.39B | 8.24B | 5.20B | 6.97B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -14.35B | -5.57B | -8.66B | 827.04M | -24.72B | -998.45M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -13.73B | -19.09B | 9.80B | -6.76B | 30.07B | -6.06B |
AXIA Energia Technical Analysis
Positive
10.84
Price Trends
10.17
Positive
10.83
Negative
10.58
Negative
Market Momentum
<0.01
Negative
52.92
Neutral
78.47
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AXIAY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 10.84 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.05, above the 50-day MA of 10.17, and above the 200-day MA of 10.58, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.92 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 78.47 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AXIAY.
AXIA Energia Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $24.74B | 10.04 | 10.19% | 6.19% | 10.66% | 56.24% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
61 Neutral | $2.50B | 20.86 | 9.00% | ― | 14.06% | 11.99% | |
58 Neutral | $6.48B | 50.70 | 4.96% | 0.46% | 31.13% | -4.27% | |
53 Neutral | $6.53B | 41.87 | 1.96% | 5.83% | 7.99% | 22.73% | |
48 Neutral | $2.34B | 18.12 | 1.97% | 19.20% | -2.84% | ― | |
48 Neutral | $5.89B | -1.22 | 243.54% | 4.88% | -2.38% | -301.98% |
* Utilities Sector Average
AXIAY
AXIA Energia
10.84
4.26
64.77%
ORA
Ormat Techno
105.45
15.21
16.86%
CWEN
Clearway Energy
31.82
4.86
18.04%
XIFR
XPLR Infrastructure
12.14
2.15
21.52%
BEPC
Brookfield Renewable
31.75
-0.33
-1.02%
RNW
ReNew Energy Global
6.87
-0.77
-10.08%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.