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Aura Minerals
(NASDAQ:AUGO)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$91.00
▲(0.59% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/10/26
The score is driven mainly by improving operating performance and a constructive earnings-call outlook (reaffirmed guidance, visible H2 catalysts, and significant shareholder returns). Technicals also support the rating with a strong uptrend, though momentum indicators are stretched. Offsetting factors are elevated balance-sheet leverage and a demanding valuation (high P/E), which increase sensitivity to execution and commodity-cycle volatility.
Positive Factors
Production Growth
Record Q3 production and the highest-ever nine-month output show that operational initiatives are translating into higher volumes, not just planned capacity. Sustained growth at MSG, Borborema and Aranzazu can improve fixed-cost absorption and support revenue and cash generation over coming quarters.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage
Debt exceeding equity leaves Aura more exposed to operating setbacks and commodity-cycle weakness than its earlier capital structure did. Higher leverage can also constrain capital allocation, increase financing sensitivity and reduce flexibility while the company funds expansion projects.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Production Growth
Record Q3 production and the highest-ever nine-month output show that operational initiatives are translating into higher volumes, not just planned capacity. Sustained growth at MSG, Borborema and Aranzazu can improve fixed-cost absorption and support revenue and cash generation over coming quarters.
Read all positive factors
Aura Minerals (AUGO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$7.06B
Dividend Yield3.09%
Average Volume (3M)998.86K
Price to Earnings (P/E)23.7
Beta (1Y)1.18
Revenue Growth89.45%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees1,337
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryGold
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.60
Shares Outstanding83,789,220
10 Day Avg. Volume894,462
30 Day Avg. Volume998,864
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.40
Price to Book (P/B)15.50
Price to Sales (P/S)4.47
P/FCF Ratio52.46
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.11
Enterprise Value/Revenue6.10
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit10.74
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.23
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$103.74Price Target Upside14.67% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)7.32
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.54B
Aura Minerals Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Aura Minerals Inc. is an enterprise focused on the extraction and processing of gold and copper, strategically engaged in exploring, developing, and managing gold and various base metal projects across the Americas. Its active production sites com...
How the Company Makes Money
Aura Minerals primarily makes money by producing metals from its mines and selling those metals into commodity markets. Its main revenue stream is the sale of gold (and, where applicable, other metals such as copper or silver that may be produced ...
Aura Minerals Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a predominantly positive outlook driven by strong multi‑quarter EBITDA momentum, record net income, sizeable reserve/resource upgrades at MSG, on‑time/on‑budget project execution, low leverage and active capital returns (dividend + $200M buyback). Near‑term weaknesses (Q2 production softness, elevated AISC driven by MSG turnaround, hedge payments, FX and inflationary pressures, and site‑specific operational challenges) create timing risk for H2 but are balanced by clear visibility on operational fixes (ramp-ups, debottlenecking, higher grades) and significant long‑term upside from MSG and other projects. Overall, highlights materially outweigh the lowlights, and management reiterated confidence in meeting annual guidance and improving H2 performance.Positive Updates
Strong EBITDA Momentum
Adjusted EBITDA of $197M in Q2 and a record trailing-12-month (LTM) EBITDA of ~ $800M; the company has increased LTM EBITDA for 12 consecutive quarters since Q2 2023, demonstrating sustained margin expansion and operational leverage.
Negative Updates
Weaker Near‑term Production (Q2 Softness)
Total H1 production of ~158,000 oz; Q2 production weaker than Q1 due to mine sequencing and MSG turnaround. Specific mine declines: Borborema from 17k oz (Q1) to 14k oz (Q2, -17.6%), Minosa from 17k oz to 14k oz (Q2, -17.6%), Apoena from 7k oz to 6k oz (Q2, -14.3%). Management noted potential for some mines to be at the lower end of their guidance in the short term.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong EBITDA Momentum
Adjusted EBITDA of $197M in Q2 and a record trailing-12-month (LTM) EBITDA of ~ $800M; the company has increased LTM EBITDA for 12 consecutive quarters since Q2 2023, demonstrating sustained margin expansion and operational leverage.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Aura reaffirmed its guidance, with H1 production at 158,000 oz and management keeping H2 guidance at 182,000–232,000 oz (implying full‑year 340,000–390,000 oz versus LTM 313,000 oz) and expecting stronger Q3/Q4 volumes from MSG ramp‑up, Borborema debottlenecking and higher grades at Apoena/Aranzazu plus Almas capacity rising to ~3.0 Mtpa; Q2 results included revenues of $336M and adjusted EBITDA ~$197M (LTM EBITDA ≈$800M), recurring cash flow $80M (≈$120M ex gold‑hedge losses), cash ≈$250M, net debt $168M and net‑debt/EBITDA ~0.2x; AISC ran near $2,000/oz (≈$1,500–$1,600/oz ex‑MSG) with MSG aimed at ~80,000 oz in 2027 at AISC ~$2,000–$2,200/oz; YTD $54M was spent on expansion CapEx, $68M returned via dividends/buybacks, and the company announced a $60M dividend ($0.72/sh) plus a $200M buyback, while stressing projects remain on time and on budget.Aura Minerals Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.29B | 921.73M | 594.16M | 416.89M | 392.70M | 424.01M |
| Gross Profit | 732.03M | 534.87M | 251.27M | 126.02M | 125.69M | 188.34M |
| EBITDA | 594.07M | 152.97M | 115.50M | 81.52M | 109.46M | 192.13M |
| Net Income | 298.61M | -79.34M | -30.27M | 31.88M | 66.50M | 43.50M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.70B | 1.61B | 1.08B | 923.82M | 727.31M | 592.48M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 248.32M | 286.06M | 270.19M | 237.29M | 127.90M | 161.49M |
| Total Debt | 458.01M | 411.17M | 385.35M | 289.38M | 180.08M | 100.97M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.25B | 1.34B | 857.31M | 609.02M | 417.18M | 320.20M |
| Stockholders Equity | 456.47M | 265.74M | 222.96M | 314.80M | 310.13M | 272.27M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 175.56M | 78.50M | 41.66M | 28.85M | -7.00M | 51.72M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 379.87M | 257.93M | 222.24M | 124.95M | 96.36M | 131.19M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -258.10M | -253.98M | -176.40M | -93.93M | -157.50M | -78.16M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -41.46M | 10.47M | 5.20M | 79.43M | 21.88M | -8.63M |
Aura Minerals Technical Analysis
Positive
90.47
Price Trends
84.55
Positive
72.43
Positive
74.08
Positive
Market Momentum
0.78
Positive
51.14
Neutral
37.15
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AUGO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 90.47 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 84.06, above the 50-day MA of 84.55, and above the 200-day MA of 74.08, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.78 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.14 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 37.15 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AUGO.
Aura Minerals Risk Analysis
Aura Minerals disclosed 64 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Aura Minerals reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Aura Minerals Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $448.77M | 6.84 | 24.33% | 2.46% | 35.48% | 72.78% | |
78 Outperform | $2.23B | 8.70 | 36.20% | 3.98% | 52.87% | 104.06% | |
66 Neutral | $7.06B | 23.71 | 88.71% | 3.09% | 89.45% | ― | |
66 Neutral | $338.68M | 14.62 | 21.25% | ― | 66.79% | 119.77% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
48 Neutral | $1.58B | -14.23 | -46.86% | ― | ― | 46.03% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
AUGO
Aura Minerals
78.55
46.46
144.75%
DRD
Drdgold
24.35
-0.50
-2.01%
CMCL
Caledonia Mining
21.86
-9.79
-30.93%
HYMC
Hycroft Mining Holding
15.76
8.31
111.54%
IDR
Idaho Strategic Resources
19.91
-14.66
-42.41%
DC
Dakota Gold Corp
5.30
1.09
25.89%
Aura Minerals Corporate Events
Aura Minerals Posts Record Q3 2026 Production and Confirms Path to Full-Year Guidance
Oct 9, 2026
Aura Minerals reported on October 9, 2026 that preliminary production in the third quarter of 2026 reached a record 95,557 gold equivalent ounces, up 27% from the prior quarter and 29% year-on-year, with sales of 93,742 GEO rising 20% sequentially...
Aura Minerals to Insource Brazilian Mine Fleets in R$612 Million Deal
Oct 2, 2026
Aura Minerals Inc., a multi-asset gold and base metals miner with operations across Honduras, Brazil and Mexico, is consolidating its Brazilian footprint through greater control of key mine services. The company’s portfolio spans six operati...
Aura Minerals Secures US$200 Million Syndicated Loan to Support Production Growth
Sep 18, 2026
Aura Minerals Inc., a multi-asset gold and base metals miner with operations across Honduras, Brazil and Mexico and development projects in Guatemala, Colombia and Brazil, positions itself as a 360° Mining company, emphasizing balanced benefi...
Aura Minerals Highlights Strong Cash Generation and Production Growth in August 2026 Filing
Aug 28, 2026
Aura Minerals Inc. is a diversified gold and copper producer listed on Nasdaq and Brazil’s B3, operating six mines across Latin America, including assets in Mexico, Honduras and Brazil. The company also advances projects under construction a...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.