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Caledonia Mining
(CMCL)
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Rating:80Outperform
Price Target:
$30.00
▲(20.48% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/18/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (high margins, sharp revenue growth, and improving cash generation) and attractive valuation (low P/E with a moderate dividend). Technicals are supportive but show near-overbought signals, and the earnings call was net-positive yet tempered by higher cost guidance and ongoing funding/execution risk for the Bilboes project.
Positive Factors
Strong Revenue and Profitability Growth
The sharp TTM revenue expansion and robust profitability show strong recent operating momentum in the core gold business. High gross and operating margins provide resources for mine development, exploration and balance-sheet support, while the recovery from prior losses indicates improved earnings power.
Negative Factors
Higher Unit Costs and AISC Guidance
Higher on-mine costs and the substantial AISC guidance increase reduce the resilience of earnings and cash flow to operational variability. Persistent cost inflation, including electricity expense increases, could absorb more of the benefit from strong realized gold prices and constrain investment capacity.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong Revenue and Profitability Growth
The sharp TTM revenue expansion and robust profitability show strong recent operating momentum in the core gold business. High gross and operating margins provide resources for mine development, exploration and balance-sheet support, while the recovery from prior losses indicates improved earnings power.
Read all positive factors
Caledonia Mining (CMCL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$459.21M
Dividend Yield2.36%
Average Volume (3M)179.26K
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.1
Beta (1Y)1.22
Revenue Growth35.48%
EPS Growth72.78%
CountryUS
Employees2,357
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryGold
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)N/A
Shares Outstanding19,335,080
10 Day Avg. Volume195,602
30 Day Avg. Volume179,263
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.05
Price to Book (P/B)1.97
Price to Sales (P/S)2.01
P/FCF Ratio11.77
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.75
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.22
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.33
Enterprise Value/Ebitda2.53
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$45.00Price Target Upside80.72% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Caledonia Mining Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc primarily operates a gold mine in Jersey. It also engages in the exploration and development of mineral properties for precious metals. The company holds a 64% interest in the Blanket Mine, a gold mine located in Z...
How the Company Makes Money
Caledonia Mining makes money primarily by producing and selling gold. The company extracts gold-bearing ore at its operating mine(s), processes the ore to produce gold doré, and then generates revenue when that gold is sold (typically with sales p...
Caledonia Mining Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
81
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Mar 2025 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 280.87M | 254.14M | 183.02M | 146.31M | 142.08M | 121.33M |
| Gross Profit | 147.68M | 137.12M | 76.99M | 41.48M | 61.82M | 54.07M |
| EBITDA | 135.87M | 126.08M | 59.72M | 25.48M | 40.35M | 44.20M |
| Net Income | 65.48M | 55.22M | 17.90M | -7.86M | 11.24M | 17.40M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 562.47M | 411.89M | 348.36M | 328.30M | 235.19M | 210.88M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 171.78M | 35.74M | 4.26M | 4.25M | 6.74M | 17.15M |
| Total Debt | 116.86M | 32.60M | 25.06M | 25.06M | 12.66M | 1.35M |
| Total Liabilities | 238.87M | 128.35M | 113.90M | 104.10M | 77.50M | 58.41M |
| Stockholders Equity | 293.94M | 259.00M | 213.88M | 205.74M | 140.74M | 137.65M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 52.29M | 43.40M | 10.64M | -15.62M | -1.48M | -6.93M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 82.55M | 76.23M | 41.95M | 14.77M | 42.62M | 30.90M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -42.16M | -24.53M | -32.05M | -31.16M | -44.33M | -35.92M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 118.55M | -19.15M | -7.80M | 3.93M | -12.75M | 2.37M |
Caledonia Mining Technical Analysis
Negative
24.90
Price Trends
23.85
Negative
21.82
Positive
23.99
Negative
Market Momentum
0.01
Positive
46.45
Neutral
63.93
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CMCL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 24.9 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 24.15, above the 50-day MA of 23.85, and above the 200-day MA of 23.99, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of 0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.93 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CMCL.
Caledonia Mining Risk Analysis
Caledonia Mining disclosed 45 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Caledonia Mining reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Caledonia Mining Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $459.21M | 7.13 | 24.33% | 2.36% | 35.48% | 72.78% | |
80 Outperform | $7.24B | 26.90 | 10.25% | 0.08% | 48.40% | 42.80% | |
78 Outperform | $2.14B | 8.35 | 36.20% | 4.15% | 52.87% | 104.06% | |
66 Neutral | $7.65B | 25.36 | 88.71% | 2.89% | 89.45% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
59 Neutral | $386.82M | -41.73 | -25.50% | ― | ― | 6.21% | |
47 Neutral | $1.79B | -15.94 | -46.86% | ― | ― | 46.03% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
CMCL
Caledonia Mining
23.75
-10.59
-30.85%
DRD
Drdgold
24.87
-3.83
-13.33%
SSRM
SSR Mining
35.51
12.01
51.13%
VGZ
Vista Gold
2.65
0.45
20.45%
AUGO
Aura Minerals
91.26
54.74
149.90%
HYMC
Hycroft Mining Holding
19.19
11.39
146.03%
Caledonia Mining Corporate Events
Caledonia Mining Discloses BlackRock’s Stake Rise to 7.10% Voting Rights
Jul 31, 2026
Caledonia Mining reported on July 31, 2026 that it received notice from BlackRock, Inc. of a relevant change in its shareholding, after the asset manager crossed a disclosure threshold on July 28 under AIM rules. BlackRock’s total position i...
Caledonia Mining Discloses Increase in BlackRock’s Shareholding
Jul 17, 2026
Caledonia Mining reported a past change in a significant shareholding after receiving notification from BlackRock, Inc. on July 15, 2026 that the asset manager had crossed a disclosure threshold on July 14, 2026. BlackRock now holds 6.18% of Caled...
Caledonia Mining Discloses Increase in BlackRock Shareholding
Jul 10, 2026
Caledonia Mining reported on July 10, 2026 that it had received a notification from BlackRock, Inc. regarding a relevant change in BlackRock’s shareholding in the company, as required under AIM rules. BlackRock crossed a disclosure threshold...
Caledonia Mining Discloses BlackRock Crossing Major Shareholding Threshold
Jul 9, 2026
Caledonia Mining reported on July 9, 2026 that BlackRock, Inc. notified the company on July 8 it had crossed a disclosure threshold in Caledonia’s shares on July 7, 2026 under AIM Rules. BlackRock now holds 4.96% of Caledonia’s voting ...
Caledonia Mining Discloses Change in BlackRock Shareholding
Jul 8, 2026
Caledonia Mining reported on July 8, 2026 that it had received a notification from BlackRock, Inc. regarding a relevant change in BlackRock’s shareholding in the company under AIM rules. The notification, triggered on July 6, 2026, detailed ...
Caledonia Mining Reports Increase in BlackRock Shareholding Above 6%
Jul 1, 2026
Caledonia Mining said on July 1, 2026 that it was notified by BlackRock, Inc. of a change in its shareholding position after the asset manager crossed a disclosure threshold on June 26, 2026 under AIM rules. BlackRock’s aggregate interest, i...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.