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Vicinity Centres
(Sydney:VCX)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
AU$3.00
â–˛(19.05% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/21/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial resilience (moderate leverage, steady operating cash flow, recovery in profitability) and a positive earnings outlook with guided FFO growth and strong occupancy. Valuation is a meaningful positive with a low P/E and healthy yield, while the main offset is weak near-term technical momentum alongside ongoing concerns around earnings volatility and uneven free-cash-flow conversion.
Positive Factors
High Occupancy and Durable Leasing
Very high occupancy and positive leasing spreads support recurring rental income, reduce vacancy risk and demonstrate sustained tenant demand across the portfolio. This provides a durable foundation for cash generation over the next several periods.
Negative Factors
Leasing Growth Is Decelerating
Lower leasing spreads indicate that rental growth momentum is easing, potentially limiting like-for-like income growth as leases renew. The moderation may persist if weaker retail sales and household pressure reduce tenant expansion capacity.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High Occupancy and Durable Leasing
Very high occupancy and positive leasing spreads support recurring rental income, reduce vacancy risk and demonstrate sustained tenant demand across the portfolio. This provides a durable foundation for cash generation over the next several periods.
Read all positive factors
Vicinity Centres (VCX) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$11.69B
Dividend Yield2.5%
Average Volume (3M)7.67M
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.0
Beta (1Y)0.56
Revenue Growth2.65%
EPS Growth37.05%
CountryAU
Employees1,246
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.31
Shares Outstanding4,640,336,400
10 Day Avg. Volume6,620,781
30 Day Avg. Volume7,666,209
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.24
Price to Book (P/B)0.98
Price to Sales (P/S)8.70
P/FCF Ratio49.03
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$2.59Price Target Upside2.93% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)0.16
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$1.04B
Vicinity Centres Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Vicinity Centres, known as Vicinity or the Group, is a premier retail property organization in Australia. Utilizing a comprehensive and integrated asset management system, it oversees an impressive portfolio of 63 shopping centres with an estimate...
How the Company Makes Money
Vicinity Centres primarily makes money from operating and monetising its shopping centre portfolio. The core revenue stream is rental income paid by tenants (including major anchor tenants and specialty retailers) under lease agreements, typically...
Vicinity Centres Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 19, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 17, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call conveyed a positive tone: strong financial results (net profit, FFO), very high occupancy, extended debt maturity and preserved cost of debt, upgraded asset quality and successful major developments (Chatswood Chase, DFO Eastern Creek, Uptown). Management provided confident FY'27 FFO per security guidance implying 5.3%–6.6% growth and reiterated disciplined capital deployment. Notable challenges included moderation in sales (particularly luxury), a step down in leasing spreads late in the year with FY'27 spreads guided lower (~3%), a $50 million uplift in Uptown costs, capex timing shifts, and acknowledged macro/residential risks. Overall, the positives — portfolio upgrade, valuation gains, NTA uplift, robust occupancy and clear development value creation — materially outweigh the moderating trends and execution/timing risks.Positive Updates
Strong Statutory Profit and FFO
Statutory net profit after tax of $1.391 billion (up nearly $400 million year-on-year). Funds from operations (FFO) increased 3.9% to $700.1 million, with FFO per security at $0.1521 (top end of guidance $0.15–$0.152).
Negative Updates
Moderation in Sales Growth and Luxury Sales
Luxury sales moderated due to cost-of-living pressures (management noted a slowdown in luxury growth despite very high productivity levels). Overall sales growth moderated in H2, prompting caution in outlook.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Statutory Profit and FFO
Statutory net profit after tax of $1.391 billion (up nearly $400 million year-on-year). Funds from operations (FFO) increased 3.9% to $700.1 million, with FFO per security at $0.1521 (top end of guidance $0.15–$0.152).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Vicinity guided FY‑27 FFO per security of $0.160–$0.162 (implying FFO per security growth of 5.3–6.6% versus FY‑26’s $0.1521) and AFFO per security of $0.139–$0.141; management said this outlook assumes leasing spreads moderate to ~3% (from FY‑26’s 4.2%), occupancy remains around 99.6%, average annual escalators of 4.8%, average new-lease tenure of ~4.6 years, specialty occupancy cost ratio ~14.4% and income on holdover ~1.5%, supported by a stronger earnings base (Chatswood Chase contributing a full year, Chadstone stabilised, Galleria opening in November and income from Uptown and DFO Eastern Creek); capital settings underpinning the guidance include pro‑forma gearing ~26.5% (30 June headline 26.1%), NTA $2.59, weighted average cost of debt ~4.98%, weighted average debt maturity extended to 5.1 years, ~87% of debt hedged in FY‑27, $800m undrawn facilities and DRP support (DRP raised $192m).Vicinity Centres Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.37B | 1.32B | 1.31B | 1.23B | 1.18B |
| Gross Profit | 965.20M | 945.00M | 916.50M | 880.80M | 851.50M |
| EBITDA | 1.62B | 1.21B | 736.00M | 446.80M | 785.70M |
| Net Income | 1.39B | 1.00B | 547.10M | 271.50M | 1.22B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 17.48B | 16.34B | 15.73B | 15.58B | 15.55B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 79.60M | 80.70M | 49.60M | 192.90M | 55.60M |
| Total Debt | 4.95B | 4.85B | 4.62B | 4.46B | 4.14B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.34B | 5.21B | 5.09B | 4.95B | 4.67B |
| Stockholders Equity | 12.15B | 11.13B | 10.64B | 10.64B | 10.89B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 242.30M | 644.60M | 353.10M | 367.50M | 334.90M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 672.00M | 651.00M | 690.10M | 702.20M | 589.50M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -526.10M | -176.80M | -435.70M | -203.20M | -512.30M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -147.00M | -443.10M | -397.70M | -361.70M | -68.80M |
Vicinity Centres Technical Analysis
Neutral
2.52
Price Trends
2.57
Negative
2.51
Positive
2.45
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.01
Positive
42.69
Neutral
10.15
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:VCX, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 2.52 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.59, below the 50-day MA of 2.57, and above the 200-day MA of 2.45, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.69 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.15 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AU:VCX.
Vicinity Centres Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | AU$11.15B | 10.56 | 9.44% | 6.12% | 14.63% | 18.93% | |
75 Outperform | AU$2.31B | 5.86 | 13.47% | 6.57% | 31.33% | 82.16% | |
74 Outperform | AU$9.00B | 8.47 | 9.83% | 4.90% | -7.59% | 178.60% | |
74 Outperform | AU$7.30B | 10.54 | 7.30% | 5.59% | 6.20% | 897.67% | |
73 Outperform | AU$18.88B | 9.33 | 9.54% | 4.45% | -3.71% | 37.55% | |
71 Outperform | AU$11.69B | 7.98 | 11.65% | 4.66% | 2.65% | 37.05% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
AU:VCX
Vicinity Centres
2.48
<0.01
0.16%
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Vicinity Centres Corporate Events
Vicinity Centres Trust Releases 2026 Financial Report Detailing Retail Property Performance
Aug 20, 2026
Vicinity Centres Trust has released its financial report for the year ended 30 June 2026, detailing the performance of its portfolio of investment properties and equity-accounted investments in the Australian retail real estate market. The documen...
Vicinity Centres Board Veteran Tim Hammon to Retire at 2026 AGM
Aug 20, 2026
Vicinity Centres has announced that long-serving director Tim Hammon will retire from its board at the conclusion of the company’s 2026 Annual General Meeting on 28 October 2026. Hammon joined the board in 2011 and has played a central role ...
Vicinity Centres Details Governance Focus in 2026 Statement
Aug 20, 2026
Vicinity Centres has released its 2026 Corporate Governance Statement, outlining board structure, management relationships, remuneration, diversity and inclusion, ethics, risk management and financial reporting practices. The document forms part o...
Vicinity Centres sets FY26 results agenda
Aug 20, 2026
Vicinity Centres has released an agenda outline for its FY26 annual results presentation scheduled for 20 August 2026, led by CEO and Managing Director Peter Huddle and Chief Financial Officer Adrian Chye. The release flags upcoming discussions on...
Vicinity Centres boosts FY26 earnings as premium retail pivot gathers pace
Aug 20, 2026
Vicinity Centres reported a strong FY26 result, with statutory NPAT rising to $1.39 billion and FFO increasing to $700.1 million, supported by higher FFO per security, a 95.5% AFFO payout ratio and a 7.7% lift in net tangible assets. Portfolio per...
Vicinity Centres Declares AUD 0.062 Half‑Year Distribution
Aug 20, 2026
Vicinity Centres has declared a six‑month distribution of AUD 0.062 per fully paid stapled security for the period ended June 30, 2026. The distribution will be paid on September 16, 2026, to securityholders on the record as of August 26, wi...
Vicinity Centres lifts FY26 profit and asset values, boosts investor distributions
Aug 19, 2026
Vicinity Centres reported a 2.9% rise in revenue from ordinary activities to $1,360.2 million for the year ended 30 June 2026, while net profit after tax attributable to securityholders jumped 38.5% to $1,391.2 million. Funds from operations incre...
Vicinity Centres Sets October Date for 2026 AGM and Director Nomination Deadline
Aug 17, 2026
Vicinity Centres has scheduled its 2026 Annual General Meeting, with the meeting of Vicinity Limited shareholders and Vicinity Centres Trust unitholders to be held concurrently on 28 October 2026. The company has set 26 August 2026 as the deadline...
Vicinity Centres Reports Lapse of Performance and Restricted Rights
Jul 1, 2026
Vicinity Centres has notified the market that a total of 34,355 performance rights and 28,669 restricted rights have lapsed, after the conditions attached to these securities were not met or became incapable of being satisfied as of 30 June 2026. ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.