Want to see AU:S32 full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
South32
(Sydney:S32)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
AU$5.00
â–Ľ(-2.53% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/28/26
The score is driven primarily by improved FY2026 profitability and a conservative balance sheet, supported by strong technical uptrend signals. This is tempered by cyclical/uneven cash-flow quality and an expensive valuation (high P/E with modest yield). Earnings-call guidance is constructive with a visible growth pipeline, but meaningful safety, operational, and transaction-execution risks cap the upside.
Positive Factors
Conservative balance sheet
Low leverage and a substantial equity base provide resilience through commodity cycles and preserve financial flexibility. South32 can continue funding sustaining investment, approved growth projects, and shareholder returns without relying heavily on additional borrowing.
Negative Factors
Commodity-cycle earnings volatility
Large swings between losses and strong profits make earnings power less predictable than that of more stable businesses. Commodity exposure can affect investment capacity, dividends, and cash generation across the cycle, even when the balance sheet remains sound.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative balance sheet
Low leverage and a substantial equity base provide resilience through commodity cycles and preserve financial flexibility. South32 can continue funding sustaining investment, approved growth projects, and shareholder returns without relying heavily on additional borrowing.
Read all positive factors
South32 (S32) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$19.54B
Dividend Yield2.99%
Average Volume (3M)16.50M
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.2
Beta (1Y)1.30
Revenue Growth-3.88%
EPS Growth312.74%
CountryAU
Employees6,867
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryIndustrial Materials
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.24
Shares Outstanding4,483,312,000
10 Day Avg. Volume19,330,823
30 Day Avg. Volume16,496,066
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.03
Price to Book (P/B)1.25
Price to Sales (P/S)2.08
P/FCF Ratio24.21
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$5.33Price Target Upside3.91% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)0.24
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$6.32B
South32 Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
South32 Limited functions as a diversified metals and mining company, conducting operations across Australia, Southern Africa, North America, and South America. The firm manages its extensive activities through various segments, including Worsley ...
How the Company Makes Money
South32 makes money primarily by producing and selling mined and processed commodities to industrial customers under a mix of spot-linked and contract pricing arrangements. Its key revenue streams are generated from (1) alumina and aluminium sales...
South32 Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 26, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 18, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call delivered a predominantly positive commercial and financial message: strong earnings (+28% EBITDA, +55% underlying earnings), improved free cash flow, a clear growth pipeline (55% expected production growth from approved/under-construction projects), and a transformational sale to Alcoa that repositions the company toward higher-margin base metals. These positives are tempered by a serious safety failure (fatality), operational uncertainties at GEMCO related to water and weather, grade variability at Cannington due to stockpile processing, and near-term balance sheet pressure after returns and Hermosa investment. Transaction execution risk and a noted lockbox variance introduce additional near-term uncertainty. Overall, the highlights materially outweigh the lowlights while acknowledging significant safety and operational issues that require attention.Positive Updates
Strong Earnings and EBITDA Growth
Group underlying EBITDA increased 28% to $2.5 billion and underlying earnings rose 55% to $1.0 billion, driven by base metals operating performance and commodity price tailwinds.
Negative Updates
Fatal Safety Incident at Worsley Alumina
A workplace fatality occurred in March 2026 (the death of colleague Simon Mukwarami at Worsley), with management acknowledging the company did not meet its safety expectations and committing to enhanced controls for working at heights.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Earnings and EBITDA Growth
Group underlying EBITDA increased 28% to $2.5 billion and underlying earnings rose 55% to $1.0 billion, driven by base metals operating performance and commodity price tailwinds.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided material base‑metals growth and disciplined capital returns: projects under construction or approved are expected to deliver ~55% production growth in copper and zinc; Sierra Gorda Ore Reserves rose 61% to 1.1 billion tonnes and reserve life was extended by ~5 years to ~19 years (supporting +5% production in FY27 and +2% in FY28, with a fourth grinding line to add ~30% from 2031); Hermosa (Taylor) is on track (ventilation shaft nearing bottom, primary/secondary mills and flotation cells installed, 5 of 6 substations in place) with project contingency intact after ~$700m invested; Cannington processed ~200,000 t of low‑grade stockpiles last year, plant potential up to ~3 Mtpa with current guidance ~2.1 Mtpa and stockpile:underground grade ratio ~2–2.5:1. FY26 financial guidance/results: underlying EBITDA +28% to $2.5bn, underlying earnings +55% to $1.0bn, group free cash flow +$352m to $610m, net cash $283m after returning $327m to shareholders; Board declared a fully franked dividend of $0.054/sh ($242m), extended capital returns to Sep‑2027 with $209m remaining, sale of aluminium assets EV up to $5.6bn (rehab provisions >$1bn) expected to complete H2 FY27, lockbox ~$100m at 30 June, franking credits ~$1.6bn, and a 40% underlying earnings payout policy remains in place until deal completion.South32 Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
76
Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 5.82B | 5.78B | 5.48B | 5.65B | 9.27B |
| Gross Profit | 2.54B | 2.52B | 1.86B | 1.94B | 5.46B |
| EBITDA | 2.01B | 1.34B | 141.00M | 416.00M | 4.47B |
| Net Income | 1.09B | 213.00M | -203.00M | -173.00M | 2.67B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 14.49B | 13.73B | 14.24B | 14.56B | 16.34B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.13B | 1.68B | 842.00M | 1.26B | 2.37B |
| Total Debt | 1.85B | 1.63B | 1.57B | 1.74B | 1.83B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.78B | 4.87B | 5.27B | 5.19B | 5.56B |
| Stockholders Equity | 9.70B | 8.85B | 8.96B | 9.38B | 10.78B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 500.00M | 332.00M | -2.00M | 303.00M | 2.48B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.63B | 1.33B | 1.12B | 1.19B | 3.07B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -997.00M | -20.00M | -1.11B | -908.00M | -2.10B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -261.00M | -405.00M | -417.00M | -1.39B | -215.00M |
South32 Technical Analysis
Negative
5.13
Price Trends
4.86
Negative
4.57
Negative
4.43
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.17
Positive
34.85
Neutral
13.09
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:S32, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 5.13 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.72, above the 50-day MA of 4.86, and above the 200-day MA of 4.43, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.17 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.09 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:S32.
South32 Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | AU$19.54B | 13.20 | 11.30% | 2.99% | -3.88% | 312.74% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
61 Neutral | AU$9.29B | 19.13 | 13.75% | 1.74% | 151.97% | ― | |
61 Neutral | AU$3.87B | 27.09 | 6.76% | 0.98% | -11.58% | ― | |
58 Neutral | AU$8.66B | 8.36 | 26.29% | 1.89% | 44.48% | ― | |
55 Neutral | AU$2.71B | -109.15 | -0.86% | 5.44% | -3.18% | 88.11% | |
54 Neutral | AU$2.27B | -5.97 | -19.70% | 1.14% | -20.11% | -312.34% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
AU:S32
South32
4.37
1.32
43.04%
AU:PLS
PLS Group
2.88
-0.17
-5.60%
AU:ILU
Iluka Resources Limited
5.26
-1.49
-22.06%
AU:IGO
IGO
5.12
-0.22
-4.07%
AU:MIN
Mineral Resources Limited
43.93
2.34
5.61%
AU:NIC
Nickel Mines Ltd.
0.63
-0.09
-13.19%
South32 Corporate Events
South32 Continues On-Market Share Buy-Back Program
Oct 26, 2026
South32 Limited, listed on the ASX under the code S32, is engaged in an on-market buy-back of its ordinary fully paid shares as part of its ongoing capital management strategy. This activity reduces the number of shares on issue and can signal con...
South32 Director Stephen Pearce Increases Indirect Shareholding
Oct 23, 2026
South32 has disclosed a change in director Stephen Pearce’s indirect shareholding in the company, in line with Australian listing and corporations regulations. The notice details movements in ordinary fully paid shares held on his behalf thr...
South32 Updates Investors on Progress of On-Market Share Buy-Back
Oct 22, 2026
South32 Limited has provided an update on its on-market share buy-back program, confirming that it repurchased 1,104,145 ordinary fully paid shares on the previous trading day. The company reports that the cumulative number of shares bought back s...
South32 Reports Ongoing On-Market Share Buy-Back Activity
Oct 21, 2026
South32 Limited has issued an updated notification to the ASX confirming ongoing on-market buy-backs of its ordinary fully paid shares under the program first announced on 29 August 2024. The latest daily notice, dated 22 October 2026, reports tha...
South32 continues daily on‑market buy‑back as share repurchases climb
Oct 20, 2026
South32 has provided an update on its on‑market share buy‑back program, confirming that it is continuing to repurchase its ordinary fully paid shares under the existing mandate. The latest disclosure shows that a total of 48,188,525 sh...
South32 Continues On-Market Share Buy-Back Program
Oct 12, 2026
South32 Limited has provided an updated notification to the ASX confirming the ongoing execution of its on-market share buy-back program in its ordinary fully paid shares, S32. The latest daily report notes that a total of 47,604,459 shares had be...
South32 Continues On-Market Share Buy-Back with Daily Update
Oct 8, 2026
South32 has provided an updated notification on its ongoing on-market share buy-back program for its ordinary fully paid shares, reporting that a total of 47,121,462 shares had been repurchased prior to the latest trading day. The company disclose...
South32 Updates Market on Progress of Ongoing Share Buy-Back Program
Oct 7, 2026
South32 Limited has provided an updated notification to the ASX confirming the ongoing execution of its on-market share buy-back for ordinary fully paid shares under code S32. The latest daily buy-back report, dated 8 October 2026, records cumulat...
South32 Clarifies Currency Details for Interim Dividend
Sep 24, 2026
South32 Limited, a diversified mining and metals producer listed on the ASX under ticker S32, maintains a semi-annual dividend framework aligned with its financial reporting periods. Its ordinary fully paid shares are the vehicle through which sha...
South32 Sets Local-Currency Rates for 2026 Final Dividend
Sep 24, 2026
South32 has confirmed the final currency exchange rates for its fully franked 2026 final dividend of US 5.4 cents per share, translating into 7.545704 Australian cents, 4.007513 British pence and 9.464386 New Zealand cents, based on average foreig...
South32 Updates Market on Progress of Ongoing Share Buy-Back
Sep 20, 2026
South32 Limited has provided an updated daily notification on its ongoing on-market share buy-back of ordinary fully paid shares, first announced on 29 August 2024. As of the latest update on 20 September 2026, the company has repurchased a cumula...
South32 Updates ASX on Progress of On-Market Share Buy-Back
Sep 17, 2026
South32 Limited has provided an updated notification to the ASX on its ongoing on-market share buy-back program for its ordinary fully paid shares. The update confirms that the buy-back, first notified in August 2024, remains active and continues ...
South32 Sets Strategic Shift Toward High-Margin Base Metals
Sep 15, 2026
South32 has issued a business update as it prepares to host equity analysts and investors following the agreement to sell its aluminium value chain assets. The company is positioning itself as a leading base metals producer, highlighting a portfol...
South32 Showcases Hermosa Project to Investors in Arizona Site Visit
Sep 14, 2026
South32 will host an equity analyst and investor site visit at its Hermosa project in Arizona, signaling the strategic importance of the development within its global portfolio of future-facing mines. By opening the site to the investment communit...
Alcoa to Acquire South32 Aluminum Assets in Cash-and-Stock Deal
Sep 8, 2026
Alcoa Corporation has agreed to acquire all of South32 Limited’s equity interests in a bauxite mine, an alumina refinery and certain aluminum smelter operations, in a transaction valued at $3.1 billion in cash plus 17,008,960 Alcoa shares. T...
South32 Director Jane Nelson Increases Shareholding via On-Market Purchase
Sep 8, 2026
South32 has disclosed a change in director Jane Nelson’s interests in the company’s securities, following an on-market purchase of additional shares. Nelson acquired 10,000 ordinary fully paid shares on the Australian Securities Exchan...
South32 Issues Daily Update on Ongoing On-Market Share Buy-Back
Sep 2, 2026
South32 Limited has provided an updated notification to the ASX regarding its ongoing on-market share buy-back program for its ordinary fully paid shares, ticker S32. The company reported that a cumulative 43,231,773 shares had been repurchased pr...
South32 Director Msimang Acquires Shares on Johannesburg Stock Exchange
Sep 2, 2026
South32 has disclosed a change in director’s interests, noting that director Mandla Mandlesilo Lambase Bavumile Msimang acquired 11,400 ordinary fully paid shares in the company. The on-market purchase took place on the Johannesburg Stock Ex...
South32 Continues On-Market Share Buy-Back with Daily Repurchases
Sep 1, 2026
South32 has continued its on-market share buy-back program, repurchasing 458,943 ordinary fully paid shares in the most recent trading day and bringing the total number of shares bought back under the current initiative to 42,772,830. The latest d...
South32 Reports Lapse of 333,794 Conditional Rights Under S32AA
Sep 1, 2026
South32 Limited has notified the market that 333,794 rights under the security code S32AA have lapsed, after the conditional rights to securities failed to meet, or could no longer meet, their required conditions by 28 August 2026. The cessation o...
South32 Issues 339,816 New Ordinary Shares on Conversion of Unquoted Securities
Sep 1, 2026
South32 Limited has notified the market of the issue of 339,816 fully paid ordinary shares, following the conversion or exercise of previously unquoted securities. The new shares, issued on 28 August 2026 under ASX code S32, modestly expand the co...
South32 Director Sells Shares to Cover Tax on Incentive Grant
Aug 28, 2026
South32 has disclosed a change in the securities held by director Matthew Daley, who reduced his holding of ordinary fully paid shares held via the company’s employee share plan. The notice details that 113,924 shares were sold on market at ...
South32 Director Stephen Pearce Increases Indirect Shareholding
Aug 28, 2026
South32 has disclosed a change in the shareholdings of director Stephen Pearce, who increased his indirect interest in the company through an on-market purchase on the Australian Securities Exchange. Pearce acquired 40,000 additional ordinary full...
South32 details performance and ESG progress in 2026 annual report
Aug 26, 2026
South32 has released its 2026 Annual Report, outlining the group’s operations, activities and financial performance for the year to 30 June 2026, along with its financial position at year end. The report also details progress against sustain...
South32 Underscores Non‑IFRS Metrics and JORC‑Compliant Resource Base in 2026 Results
Aug 26, 2026
South32 has released its 2026 full‑year financial results presentation alongside its annual reporting, emphasising the use of non‑IFRS performance measures such as underlying earnings, EBIT, EBITDA, operating margins and free cash flow...
South32 Extends On-Market Share Buy-Back Program
Aug 26, 2026
South32 Limited has updated its capital management program, extending the end date of its on-market share buy-back of ordinary fully paid S32 securities. The revised timetable builds on a buy-back first notified in August 2024 and previously amend...
South32 Declares Semi-Annual Dividend of USD 0.054 Per Share
Aug 26, 2026
South32 Limited has declared a semi-annual dividend on its ordinary fully paid shares, reinforcing its established pattern of returning cash to investors. The distribution is set at USD 0.054 per share for the six-month period ended 30 June 2026, ...
South32 profit surges as portfolio reshaping lifts FY26 earnings
Aug 26, 2026
South32 has reported its financial results for the year ended 30 June 2026, posting revenue from continuing operations of US$5,816 million, up 1% year on year, and profit after tax attributable to members of US$1,087 million, a 410% increase. Unde...
South32 boosts Sierra Gorda reserves 61% and extends Chile copper mine life
Aug 24, 2026
South32 has significantly upgraded the Ore Reserve and Mineral Resource estimates at its Sierra Gorda copper mine in Chile following extensive infill drilling between 2023 and 2025, completing about 85,000 metres across 200 drillholes. The Ore Res...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.