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Nickel Mines Ltd.
(Sydney:NIC)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
AU$0.76
▼(-13.75% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/26/26
The score is held back primarily by weakened financial performance (margin compression and net losses, with more volatile and weaker cash flow), plus limited valuation support due to a negative P/E. Offsetting this, the earnings call points to improving operating momentum and commissioning progress with a stronger H2 outlook, while technicals show only early signs of recovery (above the 20-day average but still below longer-term trend lines).
Positive Factors
Operating EBITDA growth
Strong EBITDA growth indicates improving operating leverage across the group, particularly as NPI pricing and production economics strengthened. If sustained, higher earnings from existing assets can support reinvestment, debt service and the funding of new nickel capacity over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Margin compression and net losses
The sharp margin decline and consecutive annual net losses show that revenue generation is not currently translating into durable bottom-line profitability. Continued pricing or cost pressure could constrain retained cash, weaken returns on capital and reduce flexibility to fund the company’s expansion program.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Operating EBITDA growth
Strong EBITDA growth indicates improving operating leverage across the group, particularly as NPI pricing and production economics strengthened. If sustained, higher earnings from existing assets can support reinvestment, debt service and the funding of new nickel capacity over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Nickel Mines Ltd. (NIC) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$3.21B
Dividend Yield5.44%
Average Volume (3M)6.92M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.48
Revenue Growth-3.18%
EPS Growth88.11%
CountryAU
Employees40,000
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryIndustrial Materials
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)>-0.01
Shares Outstanding4,341,936,000
10 Day Avg. Volume6,275,482
30 Day Avg. Volume6,919,193
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.63
Price to Book (P/B)1.18
Price to Sales (P/S)1.42
P/FCF Ratio27.27
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$1.19Price Target Upside34.74% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)0.03
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$1.88B
Nickel Mines Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Nickel Industries Limited, headquartered in Sydney, Australia, operates in Singapore and Indonesia, focusing on nickel ore extraction and nickel pig iron production. The company possesses an 80% ownership stake in the extensive 5,983-hectare Hengj...
How the Company Makes Money
Nickel Mines makes money mainly by earning its share of revenue from the sale of nickel pig iron produced by the RKEF operations in which it holds ownership interests. Customers (typically stainless-steel and related industrial metal producers) pu...
Nickel Mines Ltd. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 25, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 01, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented strong operational and financial momentum: material EBITDA growth across RKEF, mine and HPAL interests, major commissioning milestones (first MHP and cathode), a world-class resource upgrade (Sampala) and multiple value-accretive HPAL transactions that expand high-margin capacity. Near-term headwinds include ENC water availability (which could delay full ramp), higher input/royalty costs (RKEF cash costs +13%), scheduled maintenance impacts, sulfur cost pressure, and significant upcoming project cash obligations. Balance sheet metrics show acceptable covenant headroom but meaningful leverage and funding commitments. On balance, the positive drivers (large YoY EBITDA gains, successful ENC commissioning steps, strong resource position and accretive deals) materially outweigh the operational and timing risks called out, supporting a constructive outlook.Positive Updates
Group Adjusted EBITDA Growth
Adjusted EBITDA of USD 247.6 million for H1 2026, up 46% year-on-year, driven by stronger NPI and LME prices and operational leverage across the group.
Negative Updates
Operational Disruptions and Maintenance
Nickel sales were slightly down due to scheduled plant and power-plant maintenance at major NPI producers (ANI and ONI). Mine had ~14 days of lost production in the June quarter, affecting H1 volumes.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Group Adjusted EBITDA Growth
Adjusted EBITDA of USD 247.6 million for H1 2026, up 46% year-on-year, driven by stronger NPI and LME prices and operational leverage across the group.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided to a stronger second half and multi‑year growth: H1 adjusted EBITDA was USD 247.6m (up 46%), with group net debt ~USD 980–982m and leverage ~2.3x (within a 3.5x covenant) and cash of USD 260m; they expect debt margin over SOFR to fall from 3.5% to 2.5% (reducing bank loan cost from 7.1% to ~6.1%) if leverage holds. Near‑term operational guidance is for ENC commissioning to continue (first MHP July, first cathode August; two autoclaves at ~50% and third autoclave targeted by year‑end, with nameplate for the first two within ~2 months), which together with CNE and TMI will add management‑stated ~60,000 t of attributable HPAL nickel (Justin cited ENC 33,000 t, CNE ~10,000 t and TMI 7,000 t) — TMI requires a USD 169m payment in November (capex intensity ~USD 10,000/t for 7,000 t), CNE is a share‑swap (no cash), and Sampala (announced 1.0 billion wet mt JORC resource containing ~8 Mt Ni and implied valuation >USD 1.3bn) is targeted to ramp to ~19–20 Mtpa and into production next year; management said mine volumes will rise in H2 (Hengjaya H1 5.9 Mt wet ore, RKAB 14.3 Mt for remainder of year) with mine EBITDA per wet t at USD 12.40 H1 and USD 15.90 in the June quarter and indicated stronger H2 margins. They also flagged RKEF strength (NPI H1 price USD 13,784/t, +21%; RKEF EBITDA USD 146.7m, +87%; EBITDA/t up to USD 2,500) and HNC EBITDA USD 35.2m (+31%, maiden distribution USD 3.5m), working capital items (ore stockpile +~USD 30m, trade payables down ~USD 40m), H1 growth spend USD 137m (incl. USD 46m ENC final payment, Sampala CapEx ~USD 26m and USD 28.5m acquisition advance), and a strategic aim to target ~USD 1 billion EBITDA in 2–3 years assuming expected HPAL and Sampala contributions; LME cathode registration was noted as a ~18‑month process.Nickel Mines Ltd. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
42
Neutral
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
Cash Flow
47
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.76B | 1.71B | 1.74B | 1.88B | 1.22B | 468.19M |
| Gross Profit | 213.79M | 171.13M | 314.65M | 449.68M | 360.42M | 183.19M |
| EBITDA | 305.18M | 247.35M | 65.79M | 405.90M | 457.29M | 222.22M |
| Net Income | -17.86M | -59.05M | -168.59M | 121.60M | 158.98M | 99.98M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.07B | 4.27B | 3.90B | 4.07B | 2.67B | 1.77B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 268.24M | 357.00M | 210.95M | 774.97M | 144.24M | 99.93M |
| Total Debt | 1.23B | 1.20B | 1.05B | 845.02M | 559.29M | 237.46M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.54B | 1.81B | 1.35B | 1.16B | 857.98M | 472.71M |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.10B | 2.04B | 2.12B | 2.43B | 1.30B | 1.00B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 100.72M | 88.57M | 208.79M | 170.76M | 53.65M | 182.53M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 115.09M | 105.25M | 281.39M | 229.76M | 63.04M | 189.02M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -124.77M | -41.56M | -288.91M | -1.15B | -430.01M | -433.34M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 173.50M | 57.43M | -64.01M | 1.06B | 373.15M | 143.00M |
Nickel Mines Ltd. Technical Analysis
Negative
0.88
Price Trends
0.81
Negative
0.87
Negative
0.92
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.02
Positive
29.91
Positive
18.47
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:NIC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.88 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.78, above the 50-day MA of 0.81, and below the 200-day MA of 0.92, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 29.91 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.47 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:NIC.
Nickel Mines Ltd. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
61 Neutral | AU$4.45B | 29.01 | 6.76% | 0.91% | -11.58% | ― | |
55 Neutral | AU$3.21B | -122.68 | -0.86% | 5.44% | -3.18% | 88.11% | |
47 Neutral | AU$70.56M | -15.16 | -8.65% | ― | ― | 1.22% | |
46 Neutral | AU$152.86M | 3.16 | 7.74% | 3.70% | -13.27% | ― | |
44 Neutral | AU$83.49M | -5.13 | -19.42% | ― | ― | -330.91% | |
43 Neutral | AU$53.74M | -3.02 | -16.19% | ― | ― | 46.91% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
AU:NIC
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Nickel Mines Ltd. Corporate Events
Nickel Industries Sets Date for September Quarter Update Webcast
Oct 12, 2026
Nickel Industries Limited is an Australian resources company focused on nickel production and related industrial activities. Listed on the ASX and headquartered in Sydney, it operates within the broader metals and mining sector, supplying nickel t...
Nickel Industries weathers Sulawesi drought as Excelsior ramp‑up slows but Hengjaya mine hits record sales
Sep 14, 2026
Nickel Industries has reported that commissioning of its Excelsior Nickel Cobalt HPAL project in Central Sulawesi has been temporarily constrained by unusually dry conditions that have sharply reduced water availability, forcing operations to run ...
Nickel Industries Highlights Safety, ESG Gains at Hengjaya Mine
Aug 26, 2026
Nickel Industries reported half-year ESG achievements for the period to 30 June 2026, highlighting strong safety performance at its Indonesian operations. The Hengjaya Mine recorded a 12‑month lost-time injury frequency rate of 0.00, a 12...
Nickel Industries Delivers Surging Half-Year Profit and Expands High-Value Nickel Output
Aug 26, 2026
Nickel Industries Limited reported strong half-year results to 30 June 2026, with sales revenue rising 13.1% to US$938.4 million and profit after tax climbing to US$74.3 million, supported by higher adjusted EBITDA of US$247.6 million. Net profit ...
Nickel Industries Starts Maiden Nickel Cathode Output at ENC Refinery
Aug 11, 2026
Nickel Industries has achieved maiden nickel cathode production at its Excelsior Nickel Cobalt high-pressure acid leach and refinery project within the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park. The ENC facility is now using its own mixed hydroxide preci...
Nickel Industries boosts ESG credentials with safety, conservation and clean energy push
Jul 29, 2026
Nickel Industries highlighted strong safety performance for the June 2026 quarter, reporting a 12-month lost-time injury frequency rate of zero, a low total recordable injury frequency rate and 18 million safe man-hours worked. The Hengjaya Mine w...
Nickel Industries Posts Strong Quarter as Sampala Upgrade Powers HPAL Expansion
Jul 29, 2026
Nickel Industries reported US$120.5 million in adjusted EBITDA from operations for the June 2026 quarter, underpinned by a record US$45.7 million contribution from the Hengjaya Mine as Indonesian changes to nickel ore pricing boosted realised sale...
Nickel Industries lifts quarterly EBITDA on strong mining performance
Jul 24, 2026
Nickel Industries reported adjusted EBITDA of about US$120 million for the June quarter, up from US$86 million a year earlier but down from US$135.6 million in the March quarter, highlighting solid but moderating profitability. Strong mining perfo...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.