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Lynas Rare Earths
(Sydney:LYC)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
AU$13.50
▼(-18.63% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/02/26
The score is anchored by improved financial performance and a low-leverage balance sheet, supported by a generally positive earnings call focused on operational progress and strategic positioning. However, the overall rating is pulled down by weak technical momentum (downtrend despite oversold signals), a high P/E valuation, and the ongoing need to prove more consistent free-cash-flow generation.
Positive Factors
Profitability Recovery
The sharp FY2026 revenue and margin recovery indicates stronger operating performance and improved earnings capacity. If production and pricing remain supportive, the rebound can provide greater internal funding for expansion and reinforce Lynas’ position in rare earth supply chains.
Negative Factors
Inconsistent Free Cash Flow
Although operating cash flow improved, the history of negative free cash flow and continued conversion below net income show that reinvestment and working-capital demands remain substantial. Persistent cash absorption could constrain funding flexibility and make expansion more dependent on balance-sheet resources.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Profitability Recovery
The sharp FY2026 revenue and margin recovery indicates stronger operating performance and improved earnings capacity. If production and pricing remain supportive, the rebound can provide greater internal funding for expansion and reinforce Lynas’ position in rare earth supply chains.
Read all positive factors
Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$12.49B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)4.38M
Price to Earnings (P/E)55.9
Beta (1Y)1.31
Revenue Growth75.73%
EPS Growth2494.19%
CountryAU
Employees1,156
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryIndustrial Materials
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.22
Shares Outstanding1,006,502,560
10 Day Avg. Volume5,439,007
30 Day Avg. Volume4,379,258
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.03
Price to Book (P/B)5.19
Price to Sales (P/S)18.54
P/FCF Ratio107.94
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$17.02Price Target Upside2.57% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)0.53
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$1.60B
Lynas Rare Earths Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Lynas Rare Earths Limited, along with its subsidiary companies, is actively involved in the entire process of rare earth mineral extraction and refinement, spanning exploration, development, mining, and processing, predominantly within Australia a...
How the Company Makes Money
Lynas makes money primarily by selling rare earth products to customers, with revenue driven by the volume of material it produces and the market prices for the specific rare earth products it sells. Its core revenue stream is the sale of rare ear...
Lynas Rare Earths Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 26, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| Next Earnings Date:Feb 19, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a predominately positive operational and strategic update: safety metrics improved significantly, key sites (Mt Weld, Kalgoorlie, Kuantan) have delivered important fixes and capacity demonstrations, downstream partnerships and heavy rare earth separation progress materially advanced Lynas' position outside China, and the company retains strong cash resources. Notable headwinds include ore quality-driven production impacts in FY26, sharply higher sulfuric acid costs (~4x), temporary G&A/underabsorbed costs, regulatory throughput limits in Malaysia, and several growth projects still at R&D or negotiation stage rather than capital deployment. On balance, the highlights (operational recoveries, partnerships, product deliveries, cash strength and market tailwinds) outweigh the lowlights, which are either being actively managed or are timing/R&D issues.Positive Updates
Safety Improvement
Lost Time Injury (LTI) reduced to 0.9 in FY26, a 50% improvement versus FY25; TRIFR increased but management has active programs to reduce strains and sprains.
Negative Updates
Production Impact from Ore Quality Variation
Ore quality variation at Mt Weld during the June quarter materially affected production volumes and cracking/leaching throughput in FY26; management reports this has been addressed via segregation and process adjustments but it depressed FY26 volumes.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Safety Improvement
Lost Time Injury (LTI) reduced to 0.9 in FY26, a 50% improvement versus FY25; TRIFR increased but management has active programs to reduce strains and sprains.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The guidance emphasized operational momentum and disciplined capital allocation, citing an FY26 safety LTI of 0.9 (half FY25), cash of ~$1.2bn after last year’s >$900m raise, and continued high CapEx discipline; management flagged a $34m G&A uplift this year (of which ~$23m was underabsorbed), sulfuric acid costs ~4x versus a year ago, and roughly $100m invested in Kuantan industrial works that boosted output ~50% and added Dy/Tb capability. Operationally LAMP/SX has demonstrated ~30 tpd (targeting ~33 tpd nameplate), cracking/leaching has hit ~31 tpd, second‑half averaged ~21 tpd with a near‑term ~25 tpd aim, LAMP upside to ~12,000 tpa was noted, and FY27 production was guided to be “fairly higher” than FY26; product road map milestones include samarium delivered Mar ’26, Gd/Y expected H1 FY28 and further Sm expansion H1 CY28, a 12‑year JARE offtake in place, and commitments on thorium/scandium R&D (~1% revenue/ ~$100m out to 2031) plus swarf recycling (swarf ~30% of magnet raw material) and a push to increase Malaysia cracking allowance to 110.Lynas Rare Earths Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
86
Very Positive
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 977.95M | 542.66M | 464.45M | 739.28M | 920.01M |
| Gross Profit | 340.72M | 179.21M | 184.46M | 325.60M | 571.63M |
| EBITDA | 391.25M | 127.51M | 172.44M | 416.61M | 607.80M |
| Net Income | 222.35M | 7.99M | 84.51M | 310.67M | 540.82M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 4.33B | 2.94B | 2.80B | 2.64B | 2.06B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.21B | 166.49M | 523.84M | 1.01B | 965.58M |
| Total Debt | 338.34M | 202.05M | 183.98M | 190.35M | 190.46M |
| Total Liabilities | 838.00M | 591.51M | 562.12M | 475.27M | 416.02M |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.49B | 2.35B | 2.24B | 2.16B | 1.65B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 167.94M | -326.66M | -544.38M | -183.65M | 271.16M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 346.20M | 104.17M | 34.96M | 411.87M | 457.46M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -878.89M | -406.19M | -507.22M | -585.86M | -87.54M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 864.26M | -45.30M | -22.54M | 205.25M | -7.26M |
Lynas Rare Earths Technical Analysis
Negative
16.59
Price Trends
14.96
Negative
16.15
Negative
16.94
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.69
Positive
32.88
Neutral
13.37
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:LYC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 16.59 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.58, above the 50-day MA of 14.96, and below the 200-day MA of 16.94, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.69 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.88 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.37 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:LYC.
Lynas Rare Earths Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
62 Neutral | AU$12.49B | 55.93 | 6.49% | ― | 75.73% | 2494.19% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
55 Neutral | AU$1.00B | -17.93 | -5.34% | ― | ― | -13.41% | |
47 Neutral | AU$192.26M | -32.67 | -11.91% | ― | ― | 21.71% | |
44 Neutral | AU$53.89M | -10.13 | -5.52% | ― | ― | 98.14% | |
43 Neutral | AU$238.60M | -6.10 | -119.39% | ― | ― | -10.81% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
AU:LYC
Lynas Rare Earths
12.41
-7.85
-38.75%
AU:ARU
Arafura Resources
0.17
-0.19
-53.52%
AU:ARR
American Rare Earths
0.33
-0.26
-44.07%
AU:NTU
Northern Minerals Limited
0.03
-0.03
-50.00%
AU:HAS
Hastings Technology Metals Limited
0.23
-0.34
-59.44%
Lynas Rare Earths Corporate Events
Lynas Plans Major Share Placement to Bolster Capital Base
Sep 30, 2026
Lynas Rare Earths Limited has notified the ASX of a proposed placement involving up to 63,344,637 new ordinary fully paid shares. The company plans to issue these securities on March 31, 2027, signaling an intention to raise additional capital tha...
Lynas Rare Earths Moves to Acquire Meteoric Resources via Scheme of Arrangement
Sep 30, 2026
Lynas Rare Earths has agreed to acquire 100% of Meteoric Resources’ fully paid ordinary shares via a court-approved scheme of arrangement under the Corporations Act. The transaction will be implemented pursuant to a scheme implementation dee...
Lynas Sets Hybrid 2026 AGM and Opens Director Nomination Window
Sep 25, 2026
Lynas Rare Earths Ltd has scheduled its 2026 Annual General Meeting for Wednesday, 25 November 2026, at 10 a.m. AEDT at The Mint in Sydney, with shareholders able to attend both in person and online via the Lumi platform. The hybrid format undersc...
Lynas Rare Earths Delivers Record FY26 Profit on Strong Prices and Strategic Supply Deals
Aug 26, 2026
Lynas Rare Earths reported a sharp turnaround in FY26, posting record revenue of $977.9 million and net profit after tax of $222.4 million, up from $8.0 million a year earlier. The company achieved a record average selling price of A$80.7 per kg o...
Lynas Rare Earths Posts Surge in Profit and Revenue for 2026
Aug 26, 2026
Lynas Rare Earths reported a sharp increase in financial performance for the year ended 30 June 2026, with revenue from ordinary activities rising 76% to A$977.9 million and EBITDA surging 282% to A$386.0 million. Net profit attributable to member...
Lynas Rare Earths Sets Date for Full-Year 2026 Results and Investor Briefing
Aug 12, 2026
Lynas Rare Earths Ltd is an Australia-based producer focused on rare earth materials, which are critical inputs for high-tech, defense and clean energy industries. The company is listed on the ASX under the ticker LYC and also trades over-the-coun...
Lynas Rare Earths Plans Issue of Unsecured Convertible Notes
Jul 26, 2026
Lynas Rare Earths Limited has notified the ASX of a proposed securities issue involving unsecured convertible notes, with a maximum of 1,873,386 notes to be issued. The new instrument, to be formally classified under a yet-to-be-confirmed security...
Lynas Strikes Cross-Subscription Deal to Boost Rare Earth Metal Capacity
Jul 26, 2026
Lynas Rare Earths has signed binding agreements with LS Eco Energy, a subsidiary of LS Cable System, for a cross-subscription of zero-interest convertible instruments worth about AUD 29m each, maturing in five years and convertible into ordinary ...
Lynas Rare Earths Sets Date for June Quarter Results and Investor Briefing
Jul 9, 2026
Lynas Rare Earths will release its quarterly results for the period ending 30 June 2026 on 22 July 2026, signaling an upcoming update on its financial and operational performance to the market. Interim Chief Executive Officer Pol Le Roux will host...
Lynas Discloses Director Amanda Lacaze’s Exit and Ongoing Equity Stakes
Jul 6, 2026
Lynas Rare Earths Limited has announced that Amanda Lacaze ceased to be a director of the company effective 30 June 2026, marking the end of her tenure on the board. The notice details her remaining interests in Lynas securities, including 75,365 ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.