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Fortescue Metals Group Ltd
(Sydney:FMG)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
AU$16.50
â–¼(-6.83% Downside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:08/21/26
The score is driven primarily by solid underlying financials (strong cash generation and conservative leverage) but tempered by a clear post-peak normalization in profitability and weaker free-cash-flow momentum. Technicals are a notable drag with the stock trading below major moving averages and negative MACD, while valuation support from a moderate P/E and high dividend yield helps offset some of the cyclical and momentum risk.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Substantial operating cash flow shows that reported earnings are supported by cash generation, providing capacity to fund mining operations, infrastructure investment, dividends, and strategic projects. Positive free cash flow also gives Fortescue resilience across the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Profitability normalization
The decline from recent peak earnings indicates that Fortescue’s profitability has materially normalized rather than continued expanding. Lower earnings and returns reduce internally generated growth capacity and make future results more sensitive to operating performance and commodity conditions.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Substantial operating cash flow shows that reported earnings are supported by cash generation, providing capacity to fund mining operations, infrastructure investment, dividends, and strategic projects. Positive free cash flow also gives Fortescue resilience across the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd (FMG) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$46.96B
Dividend Yield7.08%
Average Volume (3M)7.25M
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.3
Beta (1Y)1.02
Revenue Growth4.18%
EPS Growth-18.00%
CountryAU
Employees15,745
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryIndustrial Materials
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.93
Shares Outstanding3,078,964,800
10 Day Avg. Volume8,951,784
30 Day Avg. Volume7,245,260
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.08
Price to Book (P/B)2.01
Price to Sales (P/S)2.40
P/FCF Ratio11.27
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$16.06Price Target Upside-9.31% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)0.66
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$15.01B
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Fortescue Ltd engages in the exploration, development, production, processing, and sale of iron ore in Australia, China, and internationally. The company explores for copper and lithium deposits; and rare earth elements. It owns and operates rail ...
How the Company Makes Money
FMG makes most of its money by producing and selling iron ore products to steel producers and commodity trading customers under a mix of longer-term contracts and spot/shorter-duration sales, with revenue primarily determined by shipped volumes an...
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
76
Positive
Cash Flow
68
Positive
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 16.97B | 15.54B | 18.22B | 16.87B | 17.39B |
| Gross Profit | 6.81B | 6.44B | 9.55B | 9.05B | 9.74B |
| EBITDA | 8.16B | 7.51B | 10.51B | 9.60B | 10.50B |
| Net Income | 2.87B | 3.37B | 5.68B | 4.80B | 6.20B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 32.54B | 30.52B | 30.06B | 28.94B | 29.09B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.07B | 4.33B | 4.90B | 4.28B | 5.22B |
| Total Debt | 5.93B | 5.44B | 5.40B | 5.31B | 6.10B |
| Total Liabilities | 12.31B | 10.56B | 10.53B | 10.98B | 11.75B |
| Stockholders Equity | 20.27B | 19.98B | 19.55B | 17.95B | 17.33B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 3.62B | 3.24B | 5.08B | 4.44B | 3.62B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 6.94B | 6.47B | 7.92B | 7.31B | 6.27B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.71B | -3.92B | -2.81B | -3.08B | -2.91B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.53B | -3.19B | -4.46B | -4.91B | -4.81B |
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd Technical Analysis
Negative
17.71
Price Trends
16.60
Negative
17.59
Negative
18.89
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.44
Positive
35.58
Neutral
28.86
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:FMG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 17.71 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.83, above the 50-day MA of 16.60, and below the 200-day MA of 18.89, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.44 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.58 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.86 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:FMG.
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | AU$461.97M | 12.57 | 6.55% | 5.42% | -1.75% | -5.88% | |
68 Neutral | AU$19.68B | 12.68 | 11.30% | 3.02% | -3.88% | 312.74% | |
67 Neutral | AU$46.96B | 11.31 | 13.99% | 7.08% | 4.18% | -18.00% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
58 Neutral | AU$8.94B | 8.25 | 26.29% | 1.83% | 44.48% | ― | |
57 Neutral | AU$127.31M | -0.25 | -60.80% | 10.00% | 1.83% | -1210.61% | |
50 Neutral | AU$1.56B | 80.30 | 2.27% | 12.57% | ― | ― |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
AU:FMG
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd
14.57
-5.13
-26.05%
AU:S32
South32
4.36
1.29
41.83%
AU:BCI
BCI Minerals Ltd
0.53
0.15
38.16%
AU:GRR
Grange Resources Limited
0.11
-0.12
-52.27%
AU:JMS
Jupiter Mines Limited
0.25
<0.01
1.24%
AU:MIN
Mineral Resources Limited
44.25
2.61
6.26%
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd Corporate Events
Fortescue Reports Lapse of 59,636 Performance Rights
Oct 13, 2026
Fortescue Ltd has notified the market of the cessation of 59,636 performance rights, recorded under ASX security code FMGAK. The rights lapsed on September 25, 2026 after the conditions attached to these securities were not met or became incapable...
Fortescue Reports Conversion of Unquoted Equity Securities
Oct 13, 2026
Fortescue Ltd has notified the market of the issue and conversion of unquoted equity securities, specifically unquoted options that have been exercised or other unquoted convertible securities that have been converted. The move signals ongoing cha...
Fortescue Issues New Performance Rights Under Employee Incentive Plan
Oct 13, 2026
Fortescue Ltd, an Australian iron ore and resources company listed on the ASX, supplies iron ore to international steelmakers and uses equity-based incentives to align employees with shareholder interests. The miner continues to leverage performan...
Fortescue Flags Softer Iron Ore Shipments and Higher Net Debt Amid China Sales Talks
Oct 7, 2026
Fortescue reported preliminary September quarter figures showing total iron ore shipments of 46.8 million tonnes, down six per cent year on year, including 2.5 million tonnes from Iron Bridge, with a realised hematite price of US$80 per tonne at 8...
Fortescue Director Larry Marshall Lifts Shareholding via Dividend Reinvestment
Oct 5, 2026
Fortescue Ltd has disclosed a change in director interests, reporting that director Dr Larry Marshall increased his direct holding of ordinary shares through participation in the company’s Dividend Reinvestment Plan. His stake rose from 34,3...
Fortescue Director Lifts Shareholding via Dividend Reinvestment
Oct 5, 2026
Fortescue Ltd has disclosed a change in the shareholding of director Mark Barnaba, who increased both his direct and indirect holdings of ordinary shares through participation in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan. Following the transa...
BlackRock Steps Back as Substantial Holder in Fortescue
Sep 21, 2026
Fortescue Ltd, a core entity within Fortescue Metals Group, is an Australian iron ore miner and exporter serving global steel producers. Its operations underpin significant volumes of seaborne iron ore trade and make the company a prominent name i...
Fortescue Updates Dividend Reinvestment Plan Allocation Price
Sep 11, 2026
Fortescue Ltd has updated its dividend notification for holders of ordinary fully paid shares, revising details related to its Dividend Reinvestment Plan allocation price. The announcement pertains to a distribution covering the twelve-month perio...
Fortescue Sets Price for 2026 Dividend Reinvestment Plan
Sep 11, 2026
Fortescue Ltd has confirmed the details of its 2026 final dividend, declaring a fully franked payment of A$0.46 per share with a record date of 2 September 2026 and payment due on 29 September 2026. The dividend is accompanied by a Dividend Reinve...
Fortescue Converts Unquoted Options Into Listed Equity
Sep 7, 2026
Fortescue Ltd has notified the market of the issue and conversion of certain unquoted securities, including exercised options or other convertible instruments, into ordinary equity. The move increases the company’s total securities on issue ...
Fortescue Performance Rights Lapse After Conditions Not Met
Sep 7, 2026
Fortescue Ltd has notified the market that 3,381,165 performance rights, trading under the ASX code FMGAK, have ceased as of 31 August 2026. The securities lapsed because the conditions attached to these performance rights were not met or became i...
Fortescue Issues New Unquoted Performance Rights Under Staff Incentive Plan
Sep 7, 2026
Fortescue Ltd has notified the market of the issuance of 61,758 unquoted performance rights under its employee incentive scheme. The new securities, recorded as FMGAK performance rights and issued on 15 July 2026, are not intended to be quoted on ...
Fortescue Sets Key Dates for 2026 AGM and Director Nominations
Sep 2, 2026
Fortescue Ltd, listed on the ASX under ticker FMG, is a major Australian resources company focused on iron ore production and related mining activities. The group operates large-scale mining and infrastructure assets in Western Australia, supplyin...
Fortescue Director Larry Marshall Increases Shareholding via Salary Sacrifice Plan
Aug 27, 2026
Fortescue Ltd has disclosed a change in director Dr Larry Marshall’s relevant interests in the company’s ordinary shares, following an on‑market trade executed on 21 August 2026 under a Salary Sacrifice Share Plan. Marshall incre...
Fortescue Director Mark Barnaba Increases Direct Shareholding via Salary Sacrifice Plan
Aug 27, 2026
Fortescue has disclosed a change in the equity holdings of director Mark Barnaba, who increased his direct ownership of ordinary shares via an on-market trade under the company’s Salary Sacrifice Share Plan. Following the 21 August 2026 tran...
Fortescue Appoints New Director Sigrid Kaag With No Initial Shareholdings
Aug 24, 2026
Fortescue Ltd has appointed Sigrid Kaag as a director effective 24 August 2026, and lodged an Initial Director’s Interest Notice with the ASX outlining her position. The filing confirms that Kaag holds no relevant interests in Fortescue secu...
Fortescue Issues Cautionary Investor Presentation Aligned With FY26 Disclosures
Aug 19, 2026
Fortescue has released a presentation intended solely as general information, stressing that it should not be used as the basis for investment decisions. The company warns that the document contains forward-looking statements subject to significan...
Fortescue boosts Blacksmith iron ore resource and unveils maiden reserve
Aug 19, 2026
Fortescue has sharply expanded the mineral resource base at its Blacksmith Project, acquired via Red Hawk Mining in 2025, lifting the resource by 153 per cent to 615 million tonnes at an average grade of 56 per cent iron. The company has also decl...
Fortescue lifts FY26 profit and cash flow as it accelerates renewables and growth beyond iron ore
Aug 19, 2026
Fortescue reported FY26 underlying net profit after tax of US$3.5 billion and free cash flow of US$3.2 billion, supported by record iron ore shipments of 201.3 million tonnes and an industry-leading hematite C1 unit cost of US$18.74 per tonne. The...
Fortescue Sets Purpose Around Profitable Global Decarbonisation
Aug 19, 2026
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd is a global mining and resources company, best known as a major iron ore producer and exporter. In recent years it has expanded into green energy and decarbonisation technologies, aiming to become a key player in the shi...
Fortescue Declares AUD 0.46 Dividend for FY2026
Aug 19, 2026
Fortescue Ltd has announced a new ordinary dividend of AUD 0.46 per fully paid share for the twelve-month period ended 30 June 2026. The ex-dividend date is set for 1 September 2026, with a record date of 2 September and payment scheduled for 29 S...
Fortescue Files 2026 Corporate Governance Statement and Appendix 4G
Aug 19, 2026
Fortescue Ltd has lodged its corporate governance statement for the financial year ended 30 June 2026, confirming it is available both within its annual report and on the company’s website. The statement, current as of 20 August 2026 and app...
Fortescue posts record FY26 shipments as it accelerates Pilbara green grid
Jul 30, 2026
Fortescue delivered record iron ore shipments of 201.3 million tonnes in FY26, supported by strong operational performance and tight cost control despite inflationary pressure. Hematite C1 unit costs remained within guidance, and robust realised p...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.