Want to see AU:FMG full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd
(Sydney:FMG)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
AU$19.50
â–²(10.11% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:08/21/26
The score is driven primarily by solid underlying financials (strong cash generation and conservative leverage) but tempered by a clear post-peak normalization in profitability and weaker free-cash-flow momentum. Technicals are a notable drag with the stock trading below major moving averages and negative MACD, while valuation support from a moderate P/E and high dividend yield helps offset some of the cyclical and momentum risk.
Positive Factors
Integrated Pilbara Infrastructure
Ownership of integrated mining, rail and port infrastructure supports reliable export volumes, reduces dependence on third parties and can protect unit costs and margins over multiple operating cycles.
Negative Factors
Profitability Normalization
The decline from peak earnings shows that current profitability is not as strong as in earlier years. Lower margins and returns could constrain future distributions and reduce internal funding for growth initiatives.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Integrated Pilbara Infrastructure
Ownership of integrated mining, rail and port infrastructure supports reliable export volumes, reduces dependence on third parties and can protect unit costs and margins over multiple operating cycles.
Read all positive factors
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd (FMG) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$54.01B
Dividend Yield6.9%
Average Volume (3M)7.08M
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.8
Beta (1Y)1.11
Revenue Growth4.18%
EPS Growth-18.00%
CountryAU
Employees15,745
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryIndustrial Materials
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.93
Shares Outstanding3,078,964,800
10 Day Avg. Volume7,903,180
30 Day Avg. Volume7,078,448
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.08
Price to Book (P/B)2.01
Price to Sales (P/S)2.35
P/FCF Ratio11.27
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$17.95Price Target Upside1.38% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)0.82
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$15.47B
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Fortescue Ltd engages in the exploration, development, production, processing, and sale of iron ore in Australia, China, and internationally. The company explores for copper and lithium deposits; and rare earth elements. It owns and operates rail ...
How the Company Makes Money
FMG makes most of its money by producing and selling iron ore products to steel producers and commodity trading customers under a mix of longer-term contracts and spot/shorter-duration sales, with revenue primarily determined by shipped volumes an...
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
76
Positive
Cash Flow
68
Positive
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 17.34B | 15.42B | 18.11B | 16.66B | 17.31B |
| Gross Profit | 6.46B | 8.75B | 11.53B | 8.74B | 9.74B |
| EBITDA | 8.43B | 7.56B | 10.52B | 8.68B | 10.40B |
| Net Income | 2.93B | 3.37B | 5.68B | 4.80B | 6.20B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 32.54B | 30.52B | 30.06B | 28.94B | 29.09B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.07B | 4.33B | 4.90B | 4.28B | 5.22B |
| Total Debt | 5.93B | 5.44B | 5.40B | 5.31B | 6.10B |
| Total Liabilities | 12.31B | 10.56B | 10.53B | 10.98B | 11.75B |
| Stockholders Equity | 20.27B | 19.98B | 19.55B | 17.95B | 17.33B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 3.62B | 3.24B | 5.08B | 4.44B | 3.62B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 6.94B | 6.47B | 7.92B | 7.31B | 6.27B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.71B | -3.92B | -2.81B | -3.08B | -2.91B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.53B | -3.19B | -4.46B | -4.91B | -4.81B |
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd Technical Analysis
Negative
17.71
Price Trends
18.54
Negative
19.79
Negative
20.22
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.28
Negative
38.25
Neutral
32.42
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:FMG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 17.71 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.99, below the 50-day MA of 18.54, and below the 200-day MA of 20.22, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.28 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 38.25 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.42 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:FMG.
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | AU$511.12M | 12.38 | 7.47% | 4.79% | -0.46% | -0.92% | |
69 Neutral | AU$156.24M | 3.35 | 4.27% | ― | -8.25% | -20.36% | |
67 Neutral | AU$54.01B | 13.84 | 14.10% | 6.58% | 4.18% | -18.00% | |
66 Neutral | AU$13.18B | 31.76 | 11.50% | ― | 44.48% | ― | |
63 Neutral | AU$23.00B | 54.65 | 3.36% | 2.67% | -3.88% | 312.74% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
50 Neutral | AU$1.37B | 69.70 | 2.27% | ― | ― | ― |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
AU:FMG
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd
17.70
-0.49
-2.69%
AU:S32
South32
5.21
2.62
101.00%
AU:BCI
BCI Minerals Ltd
0.48
0.13
37.68%
AU:GRR
Grange Resources Limited
0.14
-0.05
-28.95%
AU:JMS
Jupiter Mines Limited
0.27
0.05
21.56%
AU:MIN
Mineral Resources Limited
65.37
28.50
77.30%
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd Corporate Events
Fortescue Issues Cautionary Investor Presentation Aligned With FY26 Disclosures
Aug 19, 2026
Fortescue has released a presentation intended solely as general information, stressing that it should not be used as the basis for investment decisions. The company warns that the document contains forward-looking statements subject to significan...
Fortescue boosts Blacksmith iron ore resource and unveils maiden reserve
Aug 19, 2026
Fortescue has sharply expanded the mineral resource base at its Blacksmith Project, acquired via Red Hawk Mining in 2025, lifting the resource by 153 per cent to 615 million tonnes at an average grade of 56 per cent iron. The company has also decl...
Fortescue lifts FY26 profit and cash flow as it accelerates renewables and growth beyond iron ore
Aug 19, 2026
Fortescue reported FY26 underlying net profit after tax of US$3.5 billion and free cash flow of US$3.2 billion, supported by record iron ore shipments of 201.3 million tonnes and an industry-leading hematite C1 unit cost of US$18.74 per tonne. The...
Fortescue Sets Purpose Around Profitable Global Decarbonisation
Aug 19, 2026
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd is a global mining and resources company, best known as a major iron ore producer and exporter. In recent years it has expanded into green energy and decarbonisation technologies, aiming to become a key player in the shi...
Fortescue Declares AUD 0.46 Dividend for FY2026
Aug 19, 2026
Fortescue Ltd has announced a new ordinary dividend of AUD 0.46 per fully paid share for the twelve-month period ended 30 June 2026. The ex-dividend date is set for 1 September 2026, with a record date of 2 September and payment scheduled for 29 S...
Fortescue Files 2026 Corporate Governance Statement and Appendix 4G
Aug 19, 2026
Fortescue Ltd has lodged its corporate governance statement for the financial year ended 30 June 2026, confirming it is available both within its annual report and on the company’s website. The statement, current as of 20 August 2026 and app...
Fortescue posts record FY26 shipments as it accelerates Pilbara green grid
Jul 30, 2026
Fortescue delivered record iron ore shipments of 201.3 million tonnes in FY26, supported by strong operational performance and tight cost control despite inflationary pressure. Hematite C1 unit costs remained within guidance, and robust realised p...
Fortescue Reports Lapse of 41,101 Performance Rights
Jul 14, 2026
Fortescue Ltd has notified the market of a cessation of certain securities, specifically the lapse of 41,101 performance rights identified as FMGAK. These rights have ceased because the conditions attached to them were not met, or became incapable...
Fortescue Discloses Conversion of Unquoted Equity Securities
Jul 14, 2026
Fortescue Ltd has notified the market of the issue and conversion of unquoted equity securities, specifically options or other convertible instruments that have been exercised. The move reflects changes in the company’s capital structure and...
Fortescue Issues New Unquoted Performance Rights Under Incentive Scheme
Jul 14, 2026
Fortescue Ltd has notified the market of the issue of 11,690 unquoted performance rights under its employee incentive scheme, effective 16 April 2026. The new securities, which are not intended to be quoted on the ASX, reinforce Fortescue’s ...
Fortescue Faces Class Action Over Workplace Harassment Claims
Jul 6, 2026
Fortescue has disclosed that it has been served with a class action filed in the Federal Court of Australia, alleging sexual harassment and sex discrimination at its Australian workplaces. The claim covers current and former women employed between...
Fortescue Discloses Final Director Interest as Elizabeth Gaines Departs Board
Jul 2, 2026
Fortescue Ltd has announced the cessation of Elizabeth Gaines as a director effective 30 June 2026, formalising the end of her board tenure. A regulatory filing shows that upon her departure she held 66,294 ordinary shares in the company, with no ...
Fortescue Reshapes Board as Elizabeth Gaines Departs and Sigrid Kaag Joins
May 24, 2026
Fortescue has announced that long-serving executive Elizabeth Gaines will resign as Executive Director effective 30 June 2026, ending more than 13 years with the group, during which she served as CFO and later CEO and Managing Director. The compan...
State Street Group Ceases to Be Substantial Holder in Fortescue
May 22, 2026
State Street Corporation and a group of its global asset management and banking subsidiaries have lodged a notice that they have ceased to be substantial shareholders in Fortescue Ltd. The change reflects an adjustment in State Street’s aggr...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.