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Atlas Arteria
(Sydney:ALX)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
AU$5.00
▲(3.95% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/27/26
The score is supported primarily by improving fundamentals—especially stronger cash generation and a solid balance-sheet position—plus a high dividend yield and reaffirmed near-term distribution guidance. These positives are tempered by weak technical momentum (below key moving averages with negative MACD) and mixed earnings quality, with the latest call highlighting meaningful one-off costs, FX headwinds, and elevated uncertainty around longer-term distribution targets and governance.
Positive Factors
Stronger Cash Generation
Improved operating and free cash flow strengthens funding capacity for maintenance, debt service and distributions. Although historical volatility remains, the latest trend indicates better cash conversion and greater financial resilience.
Negative Factors
Inconsistent Operating Profitability
Weak and volatile operating profitability makes the quality of reported earnings less dependable. If cost pressures or non-operating influences persist, the company may have less stable capacity to support distributions and reinvestment.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Stronger Cash Generation
Improved operating and free cash flow strengthens funding capacity for maintenance, debt service and distributions. Although historical volatility remains, the latest trend indicates better cash conversion and greater financial resilience.
Read all positive factors
Atlas Arteria (ALX) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$6.57B
Dividend Yield8.37%
Average Volume (3M)1.71M
Price to Earnings (P/E)24.0
Beta (1Y)0.36
Revenue Growth1.95%
EPS Growth14.60%
CountryAU
Employees50
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryIndustrial - Infrastructure Operations
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.19
Shares Outstanding1,453,493,400
10 Day Avg. Volume1,708,959
30 Day Avg. Volume1,709,044
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.25
Price to Book (P/B)1.22
Price to Sales (P/S)44.25
P/FCF Ratio11.54
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$4.80Price Target Upside-0.18% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)0.18
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$198.17M
Atlas Arteria Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Atlas Arteria Limited specializes in the acquisition, development, and management of toll road assets. Among its key holdings is a 13.4% equity stake in Toll Road Investors Partnership II (TRIP II), the concessionaire responsible for the 22-kilome...
How the Company Makes Money
Atlas Arteria primarily makes money by collecting toll revenue from motorists using its toll road assets under long-term concession arrangements. Revenue is generally driven by (i) traffic volumes (how many vehicles use the road), (ii) toll rates ...
Atlas Arteria Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 26, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 24, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mixed picture. Operationally the portfolio showed resilience — underlying NPAT rose 29%, constant-currency revenue and EBITDA were marginally positive, Dulles and Chicago traffic grew, APRR issued EUR 500m of bonds, and the company maintained its $0.40 distribution guidance while strengthening liquidity. Offsetting this were sizable one-off non-operating charges (put option accounting and settlement, takeover and change-of-control costs), adverse FX translating to a ~3.9% revenue and ~3.6% EBITDA decline in AUD terms, a TRIP bond downgrade, and governance/ownership uncertainty following IFM increasing its stake to ~67%. Overall the operational positives are meaningful but balanced by significant near-term headwinds and one-off costs, leaving the tone cautiously neutral.Positive Updates
Reaffirmed Distribution and Immediate Payout
2026 distribution guidance reaffirmed at $0.40 per security; $0.20 of that to be paid in October 2026, and management expects to continue paying the substantial majority of cash generated in line with the distribution policy (90%–110% of free cash flow).
Negative Updates
Statutory Net Loss Driven by One-Off Non-Operating Costs
Statutory net loss after tax of $73.3 million in H1 2026, driven by large non-operating items including costs related to the put option extinguishment, takeover offer expenses, and change-of-control employee costs.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Reaffirmed Distribution and Immediate Payout
2026 distribution guidance reaffirmed at $0.40 per security; $0.20 of that to be paid in October 2026, and management expects to continue paying the substantial majority of cash generated in line with the distribution policy (90%–110% of free cash flow).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reaffirmed 2026 distribution guidance of $0.40 per security (with $0.20 to be paid in October) but said it will not provide a quantified distribution target beyond the 1‑year period, instead reverting to its distribution policy of paying 90–110% of free cash flow (while noting 2026 is expected to be above that range due to the French temporary supplemental tax and one‑offs). Key metrics cited: operating free cash flow per security was $0.191 (down 1.5% vs H1 2025); underlying NPAT was $94.3m (up 29%); on a constant‑currency basis proportional toll revenue was up 0.6% and proportional EBITDA up 0.9% (FX weakened results, leaving proportional toll revenue and EBITDA down 3.9% and 3.6% respectively); cash received from businesses was A$296m (1% lower YoY) with A$5.8m net proceeds from the FX hedge program; pro‑forma corporate cash was A$100m; APRR priced €500m of bonds in January; a new US$150m three‑year corporate facility was established to fund the US$100m put‑option settlement (the put produced an $89.1m fair‑value movement and $37.5m settlement expense), and material non‑operating charges included $24.1m of IFM takeover costs and $16.9m of change‑of‑control employee costs.Atlas Arteria Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 156.80M | 160.00M | 145.00M | 134.00M | 118.24M | 100.52M |
| Gross Profit | -6.00M | 13.50M | 138.70M | 16.40M | 116.00K | -9.05M |
| EBITDA | 37.70M | 64.40M | 106.30M | 425.70M | 63.07M | -11.95M |
| Net Income | 268.70M | 259.50M | 335.90M | 323.50M | 266.96M | 163.70M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 7.13B | 7.67B | 8.26B | 8.04B | 8.33B | 5.22B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 214.00M | 274.40M | 351.50M | 305.30M | 521.66M | 229.39M |
| Total Debt | 1.61B | 1.75B | 1.85B | 1.72B | 1.74B | 1.65B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.90B | 1.87B | 1.95B | 1.81B | 1.84B | 1.72B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.22B | 5.80B | 3.34B | 6.24B | 6.49B | 3.50B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 605.70M | 613.40M | 92.10M | 712.80M | 473.14M | 38.56M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 605.90M | 614.00M | 93.20M | 84.70M | 473.50M | 40.03M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 5.60M | -600.00K | 633.00M | 631.70M | -3.01B | 304.05M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -672.90M | -681.20M | -683.80M | -682.10M | 2.58B | -374.71M |
Atlas Arteria Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | AU$25.76B | 19.51 | 28.80% | 3.41% | 0.86% | 7.65% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
62 Neutral | AU$42.94B | 117.11 | 4.43% | 4.75% | ― | 174.53% | |
61 Neutral | AU$6.57B | 24.03 | 4.87% | 7.59% | 1.95% | 14.60% | |
58 Neutral | AU$6.26B | 17.94 | 8.96% | 4.40% | 5.89% | 21.43% | |
53 Neutral | AU$2.65B | 75.70 | 3.41% | 4.46% | 10.72% | -59.88% |
* Industrials Sector Average
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Atlas Arteria Corporate Events
Atlas Arteria Issues Half-Year Investor Pack and Clarifies U.S. Ownership Limits
Aug 26, 2026
Atlas Arteria has released its Investor Reference Pack for the half year ended 30 June 2026, providing the market with updated information on its operations and performance. The document is intended to support shareholders and analysts in assessin...
Atlas Arteria Releases Half-Year 2026 Results Presentation Amid U.S. Ownership Limits
Aug 26, 2026
Atlas Arteria has published its results presentation for the half year ended 30 June 2026, providing investors with updated performance and operational information across its global toll road portfolio. The release has been authorised by the board...
Atlas Arteria Swings to H1 Loss as One‑Off Costs Bite but Reaffirms 2026 Payout
Aug 26, 2026
Atlas Arteria reported a statutory net loss after tax of $73.3 million for the first half of 2026, reversing a profit a year earlier due to costs tied to extinguishing the Chicago Skyway put option and the IFM takeover offer. Excluding these one&#...
Atlas Arteria files half-year 2026 reports and reiterates U.S. ownership limits
Aug 26, 2026
Atlas Arteria has lodged its Appendix 4D and interim reports for the half year to 30 June 2026 with the Australian Securities Exchange, making its latest financial and operational disclosures available to investors. The documents are also accessib...
Atlas Arteria Cuts Chicago Skyway Funding Costs With Three-Year Debt Refi
Aug 20, 2026
Atlas Arteria has completed a refinancing of the bank facilities at its Chicago Skyway toll road, securing a new US$129.1 million term loan alongside fresh capex and revolving credit lines. The new debt package replaces existing facilities and ext...
Atlas Arteria abandons planned sale of Germany’s Warnow Tunnel
Aug 3, 2026
Atlas Arteria has ended exclusive talks with French construction group Eiffage over a potential all‑cash sale of its 100 per cent stake in Germany’s Warnow Tunnel. After concluding financial discussions, the parties have agreed that th...
Atlas Arteria sets date for H1 2026 results and investor webcast
Jul 28, 2026
Atlas Arteria will release its half-year results for the period ended 30 June 2026 on 27 August 2026, accompanied by a live audio webcast briefing for analysts and investors hosted by its chief executive and chief financial officer. The planned pr...
Atlas Arteria Director Boosts Equity Stake After Incentive Vesting
Jul 24, 2026
Atlas Arteria has disclosed a significant change in director Hugh Wehby’s interests in the company’s stapled securities following an incentive-related deemed change of control. His previously held rights and performance rights have ves...
Atlas Arteria cancels 351,515 performance rights under ALXAL
Jul 24, 2026
Atlas Arteria has notified the market of the cessation of 351,515 performance rights, recorded under ASX security code ALXAL, following a cancellation agreed between the company and the relevant holder. The change, effective 22 July 2026, slightly...
Atlas Arteria Reports Cessation of 80,497 Performance Rights
Jul 24, 2026
Atlas Arteria has notified the market of the cessation of 80,497 performance rights, identified under ASX security code ALXAL, effective 22 July 2026. The company lodged the change in issued capital as an Appendix 3H, indicating an adjustment to i...
Atlas Arteria lapses 2,067 performance rights after unmet conditions
Jul 24, 2026
Atlas Arteria has notified the market that 2,067 performance rights under its ASX-listed equity arrangements have lapsed after the specified conditions were not met or became incapable of being satisfied. The cessation of these conditional rights ...
Atlas Arteria Seeks ASX Quotation for New Employee Incentive Securities
Jul 24, 2026
Atlas Arteria has applied to the ASX for quotation of 2,235,744 fully paid stapled securities under code ALX, issued on 22 July 2026. The new securities, arising from an employee incentive scheme, will be quoted on the exchange, modestly increasin...
Atlas Arteria Discloses Director Debra Goodin’s Exit and Final Shareholdings
Jul 8, 2026
Atlas Arteria has announced that Debra Goodin has ceased to be a director of both Atlas Arteria Limited and Atlas Arteria International Limited as of 7 July 2026. In her final director’s interest notice to the ASX, Goodin disclosed that she ...
IFM Tightens Grip on Atlas Arteria as Chair Retires and Board Tightens Governance
Jul 7, 2026
Atlas Arteria has confirmed the close of IFM Global Infrastructure Fund’s off-market takeover offer, with IFM’s bidding vehicle now controlling 67.43% of voting power in the toll road operator. The move ushers in a pivotal period for A...
IFM Lifts Stake in Atlas Arteria as Takeover Offer Advances
Jul 7, 2026
Atlas Arteria has received an updated notice of change of interests from Diamond Infra 1 Pty Ltd, a wholly owned subsidiary of IFM Global Infrastructure Fund, in connection with IFM’s off-market takeover offer for all Atlas Arteria securitie...
State Street Group Ceases to Be Substantial Holder in Atlas Arteria
Jul 6, 2026
State Street Corporation and a group of its global asset management subsidiaries have lodged a notice confirming they have ceased to be substantial holders in Atlas Arteria Limited. The filing, made under Australia’s Corporations Act, reflec...
IFM tightens grip on Atlas Arteria as it slams US$100m OTPP deal
Jul 1, 2026
IFM Global Infrastructure Fund’s bid vehicle Diamond Infraco 1 has lifted its stake in Atlas Arteria to more than 57 per cent, cementing control in its hostile takeover campaign for the toll road operator. The bidder is urging remaining inve...
Atlas Arteria Board Hardens Stance Against IFM Takeover Bid
Jun 29, 2026
Atlas Arteria has lodged a sixth supplementary target’s statement with regulators and the market in response to IFM Global Infrastructure Fund’s off‑market takeover bid for all remaining stapled securities in the company. The lat...
Atlas Arteria Chair to Retire as IFM Takeover Offer Closes
Jun 29, 2026
Atlas Arteria has announced the retirement of independent chair Debbie Goodin from the boards of Atlas Arteria Limited and Atlas Arteria International Limited, effective 7 July 2026, coinciding with the close of IFM Global Infrastructure Fund̵...
Atlas Arteria Buys Out Chicago Skyway Put Option and Pauses Sale Plan
Jun 29, 2026
Atlas Arteria has reached an agreement with Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan to extinguish the latter’s put option over its 33.33% stake in Chicago Skyway in exchange for a US$100 million payment funded by cash and corporate debt. The mo...
Atlas Arteria Extends IFM Takeover Timeline as Bidder Passes 50%
Jun 23, 2026
Atlas Arteria has acknowledged that IFM Investors’ subsidiary Diamond Infraco 1 has automatically extended its takeover offer by 14 days to 7 July 2026, after the bidder’s voting power in the company rose above 50%. The extension under...
IFM-backed Diamond Infraco Extends Atlas Arteria Takeover After Passing 50%
Jun 23, 2026
Diamond Infraco 1, a wholly owned subsidiary of IFM Global Infrastructure Fund, has automatically extended its off‑market takeover offer for all Atlas Arteria shares it does not already own after its voting power in the toll road operator ex...
IFM unit lifts stake in Atlas Arteria above 48% as it pushes final A$5.10 bid
Jun 23, 2026
Atlas Arteria’s suitor Diamond Infraco 1, a subsidiary of IFM Global Infrastructure Fund, has issued a tenth supplementary bidder’s statement as it presses ahead with its unconditional takeover offer at A$5.10 per security. The bidder ...
Atlas Arteria Files Fifth Supplementary Statement Urging Investors to Reject IFM Bid
Jun 22, 2026
Atlas Arteria has lodged its fifth supplementary target’s statement with Australian regulators as part of its response to an off-market takeover bid by Diamond Infraco 1, a subsidiary of IFM Global Infrastructure Fund. The document supplemen...
IFM-backed Diamond Infraco lifts Atlas Arteria stake above 40% and holds firm on A$5.10 offer
Jun 22, 2026
Diamond Infraco 1, a subsidiary of IFM Global Infrastructure Fund, has issued a ninth supplementary bidder’s statement for its takeover offer of Atlas Arteria, confirming a best-and-final cash bid of A$5.10 per security inclusive of distribu...
IFM-backed Diamond Infraco declares Atlas Arteria takeover offer unconditional
Jun 18, 2026
Diamond Infraco 1, a wholly owned subsidiary of IFM Global Infrastructure Fund, has confirmed that all regulatory approvals and other defeating conditions attached to its off-market takeover bid for Atlas Arteria have been satisfied or waived. As ...
IFM-backed bidder makes unconditional, best-and-final push for Atlas Arteria
Jun 17, 2026
Diamond Infraco 1 Pty Ltd, a subsidiary of IFM Global Infrastructure Fund, has declared its A$5.10 per security cash bid for Atlas Arteria as best and final in the absence of a competing proposal, and has now made the offer unconditional. The bidd...
Atlas Arteria Files Third Supplementary Response Urging Rejection of IFM Takeover Bid
Jun 16, 2026
Atlas Arteria has lodged a third supplementary target’s statement in response to an off-market takeover bid from IFM Global Infrastructure Fund’s subsidiary Diamond Infraco 1. The document, provided to the ASX, ASIC, the bidder and sec...
Diamond Infraco Extends Atlas Arteria Takeover Offer and Clears Key Conditions
Jun 10, 2026
Diamond Infraco 1 Pty Ltd, a subsidiary of IFM Global Infrastructure Fund, has further extended its takeover offer period for Atlas Arteria, pushing the closing time to 7:00 p.m. Sydney time on 25 June 2026, with all references to the former 18 Ju...
IFM-backed bidder clears key hurdles in Atlas Arteria takeover push
Jun 8, 2026
Diamond Infraco 1 Pty Ltd, a wholly owned vehicle of IFM Global Infrastructure Fund, has confirmed that a key regulatory approval under the EU Foreign Subsidies Regulation for its takeover offer for Atlas Arteria has been satisfied, freeing the bi...
Diamond Infraco Extends Takeover Offer Period for Atlas Arteria
Jun 3, 2026
Diamond Infraco 1 Pty Ltd has issued a fourth supplementary bidder’s statement for its takeover offer for Atlas Arteria, extending the offer period to 7:00 p.m. Sydney time on 18 June 2026, with all references to the previous 11 June 2026 cl...
Atlas Arteria Board Reasserts Call to Reject IFM Takeover Bid
Jun 1, 2026
Atlas Arteria has lodged a supplementary target’s statement with regulators and the market in response to the latest update from IFM’s bidding vehicle, Diamond Infraco 1, which is pursuing an off‑market takeover for all Atlas Art...
IFM’s Diamond Infraco Intensifies Critique of Atlas Arteria Takeover Defence
Jun 1, 2026
In the latest escalation of its takeover bid, IFM Global Infrastructure Fund’s vehicle Diamond Infraco 1 has issued a third supplementary bidder’s statement challenging Atlas Arteria’s defence and the independent expert’s v...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.