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Atlas Arteria
(Sydney:ALX)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
AU$4.00
▼(-16.84% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/27/26
The score is supported primarily by improving fundamentals—especially stronger cash generation and a solid balance-sheet position—plus a high dividend yield and reaffirmed near-term distribution guidance. These positives are tempered by weak technical momentum (below key moving averages with negative MACD) and mixed earnings quality, with the latest call highlighting meaningful one-off costs, FX headwinds, and elevated uncertainty around longer-term distribution targets and governance.
Positive Factors
Recurring concession model
Long-term motorway concessions provide access to established urban and inter-urban corridors, supporting recurring toll collections and durable operating relevance. This infrastructure model can sustain cash generation over multiple years as traffic, toll escalation mechanisms, and asset management support revenue.
Negative Factors
Inconsistent operating profitability
Weak and volatile EBIT indicates that reported earnings do not consistently reflect strong underlying operating profitability. Dependence on non-operating items or changing cost structures can reduce earnings predictability, constrain confidence in future distributions, and make results more sensitive to operational setbacks.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Recurring concession model
Long-term motorway concessions provide access to established urban and inter-urban corridors, supporting recurring toll collections and durable operating relevance. This infrastructure model can sustain cash generation over multiple years as traffic, toll escalation mechanisms, and asset management support revenue.
Read all positive factors
Atlas Arteria (ALX) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$5.32B
Dividend Yield10.93%
Average Volume (3M)3.99M
Price to Earnings (P/E)19.4
Beta (1Y)0.41
Revenue Growth1.95%
EPS Growth14.60%
CountryAU
Employees50
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryIndustrial - Infrastructure Operations
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.19
Shares Outstanding1,453,493,400
10 Day Avg. Volume1,298,025
30 Day Avg. Volume3,988,845
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.25
Price to Book (P/B)1.22
Price to Sales (P/S)44.25
P/FCF Ratio11.54
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$3.97Price Target Upside-17.55% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)0.18
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$186.89M
Atlas Arteria Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Atlas Arteria Limited specializes in the acquisition, development, and management of toll road assets. Among its key holdings is a 13.4% equity stake in Toll Road Investors Partnership II (TRIP II), the concessionaire responsible for the 22-kilome...
How the Company Makes Money
Atlas Arteria primarily makes money by collecting toll revenue from motorists using its toll road assets under long-term concession arrangements. Revenue is generally driven by (i) traffic volumes (how many vehicles use the road), (ii) toll rates ...
Atlas Arteria Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 26, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 24, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mixed picture. Operationally the portfolio showed resilience — underlying NPAT rose 29%, constant-currency revenue and EBITDA were marginally positive, Dulles and Chicago traffic grew, APRR issued EUR 500m of bonds, and the company maintained its $0.40 distribution guidance while strengthening liquidity. Offsetting this were sizable one-off non-operating charges (put option accounting and settlement, takeover and change-of-control costs), adverse FX translating to a ~3.9% revenue and ~3.6% EBITDA decline in AUD terms, a TRIP bond downgrade, and governance/ownership uncertainty following IFM increasing its stake to ~67%. Overall the operational positives are meaningful but balanced by significant near-term headwinds and one-off costs, leaving the tone cautiously neutral.Positive Updates
Reaffirmed Distribution and Immediate Payout
2026 distribution guidance reaffirmed at $0.40 per security; $0.20 of that to be paid in October 2026, and management expects to continue paying the substantial majority of cash generated in line with the distribution policy (90%–110% of free cash flow).
Negative Updates
Statutory Net Loss Driven by One-Off Non-Operating Costs
Statutory net loss after tax of $73.3 million in H1 2026, driven by large non-operating items including costs related to the put option extinguishment, takeover offer expenses, and change-of-control employee costs.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Reaffirmed Distribution and Immediate Payout
2026 distribution guidance reaffirmed at $0.40 per security; $0.20 of that to be paid in October 2026, and management expects to continue paying the substantial majority of cash generated in line with the distribution policy (90%–110% of free cash flow).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reaffirmed 2026 distribution guidance of $0.40 per security (with $0.20 to be paid in October) but said it will not provide a quantified distribution target beyond the 1‑year period, instead reverting to its distribution policy of paying 90–110% of free cash flow (while noting 2026 is expected to be above that range due to the French temporary supplemental tax and one‑offs). Key metrics cited: operating free cash flow per security was $0.191 (down 1.5% vs H1 2025); underlying NPAT was $94.3m (up 29%); on a constant‑currency basis proportional toll revenue was up 0.6% and proportional EBITDA up 0.9% (FX weakened results, leaving proportional toll revenue and EBITDA down 3.9% and 3.6% respectively); cash received from businesses was A$296m (1% lower YoY) with A$5.8m net proceeds from the FX hedge program; pro‑forma corporate cash was A$100m; APRR priced €500m of bonds in January; a new US$150m three‑year corporate facility was established to fund the US$100m put‑option settlement (the put produced an $89.1m fair‑value movement and $37.5m settlement expense), and material non‑operating charges included $24.1m of IFM takeover costs and $16.9m of change‑of‑control employee costs.Atlas Arteria Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 156.80M | 160.00M | 145.00M | 134.00M | 118.24M | 100.52M |
| Gross Profit | -6.00M | 13.50M | 138.70M | 16.40M | 116.00K | -9.05M |
| EBITDA | 37.70M | 64.40M | 106.30M | 425.70M | 63.07M | -11.95M |
| Net Income | 268.70M | 259.50M | 335.90M | 323.50M | 266.96M | 163.70M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 7.13B | 7.67B | 8.26B | 8.04B | 8.33B | 5.22B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 214.00M | 274.40M | 351.50M | 305.30M | 521.66M | 229.39M |
| Total Debt | 1.61B | 1.75B | 1.85B | 1.72B | 1.74B | 1.65B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.90B | 1.87B | 1.95B | 1.81B | 1.84B | 1.72B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.22B | 5.80B | 3.34B | 6.24B | 6.49B | 3.50B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 605.70M | 613.40M | 92.10M | 712.80M | 473.14M | 38.56M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 605.90M | 614.00M | 93.20M | 84.70M | 473.50M | 40.03M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 5.60M | -600.00K | 633.00M | 631.70M | -3.01B | 304.05M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -672.90M | -681.20M | -683.80M | -682.10M | 2.58B | -374.71M |
Atlas Arteria Technical Analysis
Negative
4.81
Price Trends
4.10
Negative
4.48
Negative
4.45
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.11
Negative
32.09
Neutral
43.63
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:ALX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.81 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.77, above the 50-day MA of 4.10, and above the 200-day MA of 4.45, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.11 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 32.09 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 43.63 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:ALX.
Atlas Arteria Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | AU$27.87B | 20.89 | 28.80% | 3.12% | 0.86% | 7.65% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
62 Neutral | AU$42.63B | 116.13 | 4.43% | 5.05% | ― | 174.53% | |
61 Neutral | AU$5.32B | 19.43 | 4.87% | 10.93% | 1.95% | 14.60% | |
58 Neutral | AU$6.41B | 18.28 | 8.96% | 6.04% | 5.89% | 21.43% | |
53 Neutral | AU$2.76B | 78.65 | 3.41% | 4.74% | 10.72% | -59.88% |
* Industrials Sector Average
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Atlas Arteria Corporate Events
Atlas Arteria Faces French Tax Risk as Weak Fuel-Hit Traffic Weighs on Q3
Oct 20, 2026
Atlas Arteria reported that proportional toll revenue for the September quarter slipped 0.4% in constant currency, while reported revenue fell 8.9% due to foreign exchange, reflecting weak French light vehicle traffic amid record fuel prices partl...
Atlas Arteria Warns of Impact From Proposed French Transport Tax Hikes
Sep 30, 2026
Atlas Arteria has flagged potential impacts from proposed changes in French taxation, as the government plans to raise the Long-distance Transport Infrastructure Tax (TEILD) on operators with annual revenues above €120 million. The TEILD rat...
Atlas Arteria Flags Director Security Transfer With No Change in Interest
Sep 28, 2026
Atlas Arteria has disclosed a change of director’s interest notice relating to board member Hugh Wehby, following the transfer of his stapled securities to a company he owns and controls. The company stressed that this internal transfer does...
Atlas Arteria Updates Securities Trading Policy to Strengthen Governance
Sep 28, 2026
Atlas Arteria has updated its Securities Trading Policy, effective 25 September 2026, in line with ASX Listing Rule 12.10, and made the revised policy available on its website. The move underscores the toll road operator’s ongoing focus on g...
Atlas Arteria Announces AUD 0.20 Interim Distribution
Sep 17, 2026
Atlas Arteria has declared a six-month distribution of AUD 0.20 per stapled security for the period ended 30 June 2026. The distribution will be paid on 7 October 2026, with the securities trading ex-distribution from 23 September and a record dat...
Atlas Arteria Declares 20c H1 2026 Distribution to Security Holders
Sep 17, 2026
Atlas Arteria has declared a distribution of 20.0 Australian cents per stapled security for the six months to 30 June 2026, to be paid as an unfranked distribution by Atlas Arteria Limited and Atlas Arteria International Limited. The entitlement w...
Atlas Arteria Director Kiernan Bell Boosts Indirect Shareholding
Sep 10, 2026
Atlas Arteria has disclosed a change in director Kiernan Bell’s relevant interests, with Bell increasing her indirect holding in Atlas Arteria stapled securities. The director acquired 45,000 ALX ordinary stapled securities via an on-market ...
Atlas Arteria Dropped From S&P/ASX 100 in September Index Rebalance
Sep 4, 2026
SP Dow Jones Indices has announced its September 2026 quarterly rebalance of the SP/ASX indices, confirming no changes to the SP/ASX 20 while reshuffling constituents in the SP/ASX 50, 100, 200 and 300. The review removes Atlas Arteria from the SP...
Atlas Arteria Director Laura Hendricks Buys First Stake in ALX Securities
Sep 3, 2026
Atlas Arteria has disclosed a change in director Laura Hendricks’ holdings, with the board member acquiring 38,000 ALX ordinary stapled securities via an on-market trade. The purchase, executed at $4.62 per security, marks her first declared...
Atlas Arteria Issues Half-Year Investor Pack and Clarifies U.S. Ownership Limits
Aug 26, 2026
Atlas Arteria has released its Investor Reference Pack for the half year ended 30 June 2026, providing the market with updated information on its operations and performance. The document is intended to support shareholders and analysts in assessin...
Atlas Arteria Releases Half-Year 2026 Results Presentation Amid U.S. Ownership Limits
Aug 26, 2026
Atlas Arteria has published its results presentation for the half year ended 30 June 2026, providing investors with updated performance and operational information across its global toll road portfolio. The release has been authorised by the board...
Atlas Arteria Swings to H1 Loss as One‑Off Costs Bite but Reaffirms 2026 Payout
Aug 26, 2026
Atlas Arteria reported a statutory net loss after tax of $73.3 million for the first half of 2026, reversing a profit a year earlier due to costs tied to extinguishing the Chicago Skyway put option and the IFM takeover offer. Excluding these one&#...
Atlas Arteria files half-year 2026 reports and reiterates U.S. ownership limits
Aug 26, 2026
Atlas Arteria has lodged its Appendix 4D and interim reports for the half year to 30 June 2026 with the Australian Securities Exchange, making its latest financial and operational disclosures available to investors. The documents are also accessib...
Atlas Arteria Cuts Chicago Skyway Funding Costs With Three-Year Debt Refi
Aug 20, 2026
Atlas Arteria has completed a refinancing of the bank facilities at its Chicago Skyway toll road, securing a new US$129.1 million term loan alongside fresh capex and revolving credit lines. The new debt package replaces existing facilities and ext...
Atlas Arteria abandons planned sale of Germany’s Warnow Tunnel
Aug 3, 2026
Atlas Arteria has ended exclusive talks with French construction group Eiffage over a potential all‑cash sale of its 100 per cent stake in Germany’s Warnow Tunnel. After concluding financial discussions, the parties have agreed that th...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.