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Aurizon Holdings
(Sydney:AZJ)
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Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
AU$4.00
▲(6.67% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:08/20/26
The score is primarily held back by weak technicals (price below major averages with negative momentum and oversold readings) and a balance-sheet that has become more levered with softer net margins and uneven free-cash-flow conversion. Offsetting this, operating performance and cash generation remain solid, valuation is reasonable with an attractive dividend yield, and the earnings call conveyed constructive FY27 guidance despite a coal earnings reset risk.
Positive Factors
Revenue and operating profitability
Steady revenue growth alongside consistently strong EBIT and EBITDA margins indicates resilient operating economics in Aurizon’s rail businesses. This combination supports internal funding for maintenance and growth, provides leverage to volume recovery, and reinforces earnings durability over coming quarters.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Higher leverage has reduced financial flexibility as equity declined while assets remained broadly stable. Although the business continues to generate operating cash, greater debt exposure can constrain investment, dividends or debt reduction and leaves earnings more sensitive to financing costs.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue and operating profitability
Steady revenue growth alongside consistently strong EBIT and EBITDA margins indicates resilient operating economics in Aurizon’s rail businesses. This combination supports internal funding for maintenance and growth, provides leverage to volume recovery, and reinforces earnings durability over coming quarters.
Read all positive factors
Aurizon Holdings (AZJ) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$6.41B
Dividend Yield6.04%
Average Volume (3M)5.95M
Price to Earnings (P/E)18.3
Beta (1Y)0.53
Revenue Growth5.89%
EPS Growth21.43%
CountryAU
Employees5,997
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryRailroads
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.21
Shares Outstanding1,683,307,300
10 Day Avg. Volume5,204,903
30 Day Avg. Volume5,948,126
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.85
Price to Book (P/B)1.82
Price to Sales (P/S)1.75
P/FCF Ratio9.52
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$3.65Price Target Upside-2.77% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)0.26
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$4.23B
Aurizon Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Aurizon Holdings Limited operates as a prominent rail freight service provider throughout Australia via its subsidiaries. The company organizes its business across Network, Coal, Bulk, and Other divisions. It specializes in transporting a diverse ...
How the Company Makes Money
Aurizon makes money primarily through two complementary rail businesses. First, it earns access and usage revenue from its regulated rail infrastructure operations, mainly via the Central Queensland Coal Network (CQCN). In this model, Aurizon char...
Aurizon Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 16, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| Next Earnings Date:Feb 08, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated a broadly positive year: strong underlying financial results (EPS +29%, underlying EBITDA +9%, NPAT +24%), robust cash generation, a completed A$250m buyback, higher dividends and clear strategic progress (UT5+ regulatory progress, bulk growth, container momentum and vehicle logistics entry). Offsetting risks include a mixed safety outcome, a coal earnings reset driven by lower contracted volumes (contracted volumes down ~20m tonnes), a modest non‑cash impairment and one‑off costs, containerized freight not yet profitable (requires ~25% more volumes to breakeven) and exposure to coal market/supply and refinancing/interest rate risks. On balance the positives—notably financial strength, shareholder returns, regulatory progress and growth initiatives—outweigh the negatives, though execution on coal transformation and containerized freight breakeven are key watchpoints.Positive Updates
Strong overall financial performance
FY26 group revenue $4.2bn (+6% YoY); underlying EBITDA $1.7bn (+9% YoY); underlying NPAT +24% and earnings per share +29% — demonstrating solid top- and bottom-line growth.
Negative Updates
Safety performance mixed — TRIs increased
Although serious injury frequency reduced and H2 was better than H1, total recordable injuries increased in FY26, flagged as 'not where we want performance to be.'
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong overall financial performance
FY26 group revenue $4.2bn (+6% YoY); underlying EBITDA $1.7bn (+9% YoY); underlying NPAT +24% and earnings per share +29% — demonstrating solid top- and bottom-line growth.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Aurizon guided FY2027 group underlying EBITDA of A$1.725–1.775 billion, full‑year dividends of A$0.23–0.24 per share, non‑growth CapEx of A$590–660 million (including ~A$25 million transformation capital) and growth CapEx of A$70–120 million; management expects network earnings to be higher, coal earnings to be lower (contracted volumes reduced while haul volumes stay broadly flat), bulk earnings higher (full‑year contribution from new contracts) and containerized freight to reach EBITDA breakeven in FY2027—all assuming no major supply‑chain or weather disruptions—and noted regulatory sensitivity (UT5+ placeholder WACC 7.79% now ~8.3%, and ~25 bps rise in the risk‑free rate would add ≈A$15m p.a. to network revenue); balance‑sheet context: net debt ≈A$5.2 billion, available liquidity ≈A$1.1 billion, gearing ~57%, net‑debt/EBITDA ~3x, interest hedging ~95%, and a capital allocation aim to target dividends in the 70–100% of underlying NPAT range (90% paid in FY2026).Aurizon Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 4.10B | 3.87B | 3.76B | 3.44B | 3.00B |
| Gross Profit | 890.00M | 3.25B | 1.56B | 712.00M | 796.00M |
| EBITDA | 1.61B | 1.53B | 1.64B | 1.38B | 1.46B |
| Net Income | 362.00M | 303.00M | 406.00M | 276.00M | 513.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 11.96B | 11.64B | 11.82B | 11.89B | 9.85B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 128.00M | 64.00M | 49.00M | 92.00M | 172.10M |
| Total Debt | 5.63B | 5.50B | 5.08B | 5.28B | 3.34B |
| Total Liabilities | 8.02B | 7.56B | 7.38B | 7.54B | 5.44B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.94B | 4.09B | 4.44B | 4.35B | 4.41B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 754.00M | 765.00M | 451.00M | 91.00M | 641.50M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.50B | 1.46B | 1.27B | 849.00M | 1.19B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -742.00M | -707.00M | -692.00M | -2.85B | -527.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -690.00M | -739.00M | -626.00M | 1.92B | -639.70M |
Aurizon Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
3.75
Price Trends
3.71
Positive
3.89
Negative
3.87
Negative
Market Momentum
0.03
Negative
60.88
Neutral
72.69
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:AZJ, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3.75 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.75, above the 50-day MA of 3.71, and below the 200-day MA of 3.87, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.88 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 72.69 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:AZJ.
Aurizon Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | AU$2.92B | 23.21 | 22.77% | 3.72% | 29.43% | 50.05% | |
69 Neutral | AU$27.87B | 20.89 | 28.80% | 3.12% | 0.86% | 7.65% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
59 Neutral | AU$4.54B | 21.33 | 11.01% | 4.19% | -7.37% | 59.81% | |
58 Neutral | AU$6.41B | 18.28 | 8.96% | 6.04% | 5.89% | 21.43% | |
53 Neutral | AU$2.76B | 78.65 | 3.41% | 4.74% | 10.72% | -59.88% |
* Industrials Sector Average
AU:AZJ
Aurizon Holdings
3.81
0.60
18.54%
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20.99
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6.97
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-4.89%
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Monadelphous Group Limited
29.00
7.27
33.48%
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5.57
1.39
33.35%
Aurizon Holdings Corporate Events
Aurizon Issues Daily Update on Ongoing On‑Market Share Buy‑Back
Oct 26, 2026
Aurizon Holdings Limited, a leading Australian rail freight and logistics provider, operates extensive rail networks that support bulk commodity and general freight movements. Its ordinary fully paid shares trade on the ASX under the ticker AZJ, a...
Aurizon Welcomes QCA Backing for Long-Term UT5+ Access Regime
Oct 22, 2026
Aurizon Holdings has welcomed the Queensland Competition Authority’s Final Decision on the 2025 UT5 Draft Amending Access Undertaking, known as UT5+, covering its regulated Aurizon Network operations in Queensland. The regulator has material...
Aurizon shareholders back board, pay and incentives at 2026 AGM
Oct 22, 2026
Aurizon Holdings has reported the results of its 2026 annual general meeting, confirming that all resolutions put to shareholders were passed by the required majorities via poll. The adopted resolutions cover the remuneration report, board electio...
Aurizon Flags Strong Results and Confirms FY2027 Guidance at AGM
Oct 22, 2026
Aurizon Holdings has released the prepared addresses for its 2026 Annual General Meeting, highlighting strong operational and financial performance over the past year. The company reported a 9% rise in underlying EBITDA, a 29% increase in earnings...
Aurizon Reports Lapse of 2.8 Million Performance Rights
Oct 21, 2026
Aurizon Holdings has notified the market that 2,803,464 performance rights, trading under ASX code AZJAA, have lapsed after the conditions attached to these rights were not satisfied or became incapable of being met as of 14 October 2026. The cess...
Aurizon Updates Investors on Progress of On-Market Share Buy-Back
Oct 12, 2026
Aurizon Holdings Limited has issued an update on its ongoing on-market share buy-back program for its ordinary fully paid securities. The company reported that, as of 13 October 2026, a total of 4,082,753 shares had been repurchased prior to the l...
Aurizon Updates Market on Progress of On‑Market Share Buy‑Back
Oct 8, 2026
Aurizon Holdings has updated the market on its ongoing on-market share buy-back, disclosing that it repurchased 744,775 ordinary fully paid shares on the previous trading day. This brings the total number of shares bought back so far under the cur...
Aurizon Continues On-Market Buy-Back, Lifts Share Repurchases
Oct 7, 2026
Aurizon Holdings Limited has issued an update on its on-market share buy-back program, confirming a daily buy-back notification for its ordinary fully paid shares. The company reported that 2,882,872 shares had been repurchased before the previous...
Aurizon Issues Daily Update on Ongoing On‑Market Share Buy‑Back
Oct 1, 2026
Aurizon Holdings has updated the market with a daily notification on its ongoing on‑market share buy‑back of ordinary fully paid shares. The company reported that a cumulative 2,521,651 shares had been repurchased prior to the latest r...
Aurizon Reports Lapse of 168,074 Performance Rights
Sep 30, 2026
Aurizon Holdings has notified the market of the cessation of 168,074 performance rights, recorded under the ASX security code AZJAA. The rights lapsed after the conditional requirements attached to these securities were not met or became incapable...
Aurizon Issues Daily Update on Ongoing On-Market Share Buy-Back
Sep 29, 2026
Aurizon Holdings Limited, the Australian rail and freight logistics operator listed as AZJ on the ASX, continues to manage its capital structure through share repurchases. The company remains focused on optimising shareholder returns while support...
Aurizon Updates Market on Ongoing On-Market Share Buy-Back
Sep 24, 2026
Aurizon Holdings has issued an update announcing ongoing on-market share buy-back activity in its ordinary fully paid securities. The latest notification, dated 25 September 2026, reports cumulative buy-backs of 1,981,875 shares prior to the previ...
Aurizon Issues Daily Update on Ongoing On-Market Share Buy-Back
Sep 21, 2026
Aurizon Holdings has continued its on-market share buy-back program, targeting its ordinary fully paid shares listed on the ASX under the ticker AZJ. The company is pursuing capital management through ongoing repurchases, which can reduce the shar...
Aurizon Updates Market on Progress of Daily Share Buy-Back Program
Sep 16, 2026
Aurizon Holdings Limited has issued an updated notification to the Australian Securities Exchange detailing its ongoing on-market share buy-back program in ordinary fully paid shares. The latest daily report, dated 17 September 2026, records that ...
Aurizon Sets Hybrid 2026 AGM and Releases Annual Report to Shareholders
Sep 11, 2026
Aurizon Holdings has released its 2026 Notice of Annual General Meeting, confirming that the AGM will be held as a hybrid event in Brisbane and online at 2:00 p.m. Brisbane time on 22 October 2026. The company has also begun mailing printed copies...
Aurizon Updates Investors on Daily Progress of On-Market Share Buy-Back
Sep 10, 2026
Aurizon Holdings Limited has issued an update on its ongoing on-market share buy-back program for its ordinary fully paid shares listed under ticker AZJ. The latest daily notification, dated 10 September 2026, reports that 467,685 shares were repu...
Aurizon Updates Market on Daily On‑Market Share Buy‑Back Activity
Sep 9, 2026
Aurizon Holdings has provided an updated notification to the ASX regarding its ongoing on‑market share buy‑back program for its ordinary fully paid shares. The latest daily report states that 462,752 AZJ securities were repurchased on ...
Aurizon Director Amanda McMillan Discloses New Indirect Shareholding
Sep 7, 2026
Aurizon Holdings has disclosed a change in director Amanda McMillan’s relevant interests in the company’s securities, lodged with the ASX in an Appendix 3Y notice. The filing states that McMillan now holds an indirect interest in Auriz...
Aurizon Director Andrew Adam Acquires Initial Stake via Super Fund
Sep 3, 2026
Aurizon Holdings has disclosed a change in director Andrew Adam’s relevant interests in its securities, in line with ASX listing rule requirements. The notice records that an entity associated with Adam, AAAJB Investments Pty Ltd as trustee ...
Aurizon Director Samantha Tough Increases Shareholding
Aug 31, 2026
Aurizon Holdings has disclosed a change in the shareholding of non-executive director Samantha Tough, who increased her direct holding in the company through on-market purchases on 26 and 27 August 2026. Following these transactions, Tough now hol...
Aurizon Corrects End Date for On-Market Share Buy-Back
Aug 25, 2026
Aurizon Holdings Limited, a leading Australian rail freight and logistics company, operates extensive bulk transport services that connect resource producers with domestic and export markets. Its ordinary fully paid shares trade on the ASX under t...
Aurizon Launches $250 Million On-Market Share Buy-Back
Aug 25, 2026
Aurizon has announced an on-market share buy-back program of up to $250 million, set to commence on 8 September 2026 and run for up to 12 months. The Board is acting within its capital allocation framework, viewing the current share price as an at...
Aurizon Discloses Increase in Director Timothy Longstaff’s Indirect Shareholding
Aug 21, 2026
Aurizon Holdings has disclosed a change in director Timothy Longstaff’s indirect interest in the company’s securities, as required under ASX listing rules. The notice reports that a superannuation fund of which Longstaff is a beneficia...
Aurizon Releases 2026 Annual Report and Sets October AGM Date
Aug 17, 2026
Aurizon has released its 2026 Annual Report, taking advantage of regulatory relief that allows it to lodge the document electronically with the ASX without separate submission to the corporate regulator. Shareholders who have opted for physical de...
Aurizon Wins Major Long-Term Queensland Coal Haulage Deal with BMA
Aug 16, 2026
Aurizon has secured a new long-term, performance-based coal haulage contract with BMA, the BHP Mitsubishi Alliance, covering metallurgical coal from multiple Bowen Basin mines including Goonyella Riverside, Broadmeadow, Peak Downs, Saraji and Cava...
Aurizon Network Files 2026 Full-Year Report with ASX
Aug 16, 2026
Aurizon Network Pty Ltd has released its Annual Financial Report for the year ended 30 June 2026, lodging the full year report with the ASX via electronic submission. The publication of the report provides investors and stakeholders with updated f...
Aurizon Publishes FY2026 Full-Year Results Presentation
Aug 16, 2026
Aurizon Holdings has released its full-year FY2026 results presentation to the market, signalling the completion of another financial reporting cycle. The materials are being used as the basis for an analyst and investor briefing, underlining the ...
Aurizon Announces Interim Dividend for Half-Year to June 2026
Aug 16, 2026
Aurizon Holdings has declared an interim dividend of AUD 0.105 per ordinary fully paid share for the six-month period ended 30 June 2026. The ASX-listed rail freight operator has set an ex-dividend date of 31 August 2026, a record date of 1 Septem...
Aurizon Files FY2026 Preliminary Financial Report with ASX
Aug 16, 2026
Aurizon Holdings has lodged its Appendix 4E preliminary financial report for the year ended 30 June 2026 with the ASX, signaling the release of its latest annual financial results to the market. The filing, authorised by the Board and signed by th...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.