Want to see AU:AGL full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
AGL Energy
(Sydney:AGL)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
AU$9.50
▲(10.85% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/17/26
The score is driven primarily by improved but still volatile financial performance, with negative free cash flow in the last two years as the key constraint. Valuation is a notable positive (low P/E and high yield), while technicals are mixed with improving near-term momentum but the price still below longer-term averages. Earnings-call messaging supports the outlook via higher dividend ambitions and cost actions, tempered by execution and cost headwinds (retail transformation, depreciation, and gas costs).
Positive Factors
Improving customer retention and margins
Stronger customer satisfaction, lower relative churn and improved consumer margins support a more resilient retail franchise. These gains can improve recurring customer economics and help offset competitive pressure across Australia’s energy market.
Negative Factors
Persistent negative free cash flow
Negative free cash flow reduces financial flexibility and makes AGL more dependent on balance-sheet capacity, asset recycling or future operating improvement. Sustained capital spending and working-capital absorption could constrain investment and shareholder distributions.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improving customer retention and margins
Stronger customer satisfaction, lower relative churn and improved consumer margins support a more resilient retail franchise. These gains can improve recurring customer economics and help offset competitive pressure across Australia’s energy market.
Read all positive factors
AGL Energy (AGL) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$5.87B
Dividend Yield5.73%
Average Volume (3M)3.86M
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.8
Beta (1Y)0.24
Revenue Growth-5.58%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryAU
Employees3,735
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryIndependent Power Producers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.12
Shares Outstanding672,747,250
10 Day Avg. Volume3,304,369
30 Day Avg. Volume3,863,866
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)1.06
Price to Sales (P/S)0.41
P/FCF Ratio-19.37
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$9.97Price Target Upside16.29% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)0.82
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$13.69B
AGL Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
AGL Energy Limited, an Australian enterprise, delivers energy and related services to a broad customer base, encompassing households, small and large businesses, and wholesale clients. The company operates through three principal divisions: Custom...
How the Company Makes Money
AGL primarily makes money through two connected parts of the energy value chain: retailing and electricity generation. (1) Energy retailing: AGL earns revenue by selling electricity and natural gas to households and businesses under energy plans. ...
AGL Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 11, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 10, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong operational delivery, disciplined capital allocation, and resilient cash generation—EBITDA growth, improved customer metrics, robust battery performance and effective capital recycling were notable positives. Key near-term headwinds include higher depreciation and finance costs, a material retail transformation extension and cost uplift, reduced generation volumes in a mild year, and gas cost repricing. Overall, the positives (robust cash flow, balance sheet stability, strategic progress on flexibility and customer metrics) outweigh the lowlights, though some execution and market risks remain.Positive Updates
Solid Financial Results
EBITDA of $2.1 billion (up ~2% year-on-year) and underlying net profit of $631 million; strong operating cash flow with a 97% cash conversion rate (excluding margin calls, rehabilitation and bill relief timing).
Negative Updates
Underlying NPAT Pressure from Non-operating Costs
Underlying net profit was marginally lower despite EBITDA growth, driven by increased depreciation & amortization (FY'26 uplift $19 million; FY'27 expected uplift ~ $50 million) and higher net finance costs (impacted by higher average net debt and interest rates before divestment proceeds).
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Solid Financial Results
EBITDA of $2.1 billion (up ~2% year-on-year) and underlying net profit of $631 million; strong operating cash flow with a 97% cash conversion rate (excluding margin calls, rehabilitation and bill relief timing).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
AGL’s FY‑27 guidance targets a higher fully‑franked dividend payout ratio of 55–60% (up from FY‑26 total $0.50/share, final $0.26/share and a 53.3% payout), with management expecting underlying EBITDA to stabilise (benefitting from a full year of Liddell battery contribution, stabilising consumer margins and lower operating costs from a $50m FY‑27 cost‑out program after $30m was delivered in FY‑26). FY‑27 also contemplates an uplift in depreciation & amortisation of ~ $50m (partly offset by an expected ~$30m reduction in finance costs), growth capital of ~ $800m (including ~ $370m for Tomago and ~ $270m for K2 in FY‑27), sustaining capex of ~ $700m (c. $500m on the thermal fleet), and acknowledges higher gas costs as low‑cost legacy contracts roll off; for context FY‑26 results included EBITDA $2.1bn, underlying NPAT $631m, battery EBITDA $57m, 97% cash conversion and ~ $1.6bn of liquidity.AGL Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
66
Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 13.59B | 13.84B | 13.58B | 14.16B | 13.22B |
| Gross Profit | 1.88B | 2.93B | 2.15B | 1.15B | 1.09B |
| EBITDA | 2.41B | 1.00B | 2.06B | -700.00M | 2.13B |
| Net Income | 756.00M | -98.00M | 711.00M | -1.26B | 860.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 15.98B | 16.20B | 15.66B | 15.24B | 19.27B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 710.00M | 332.00M | 971.00M | 376.00M | 341.00M |
| Total Debt | 4.03B | 3.31B | 2.73B | 2.88B | 2.88B |
| Total Liabilities | 10.71B | 11.35B | 10.23B | 10.12B | 12.75B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.28B | 4.86B | 5.43B | 5.12B | 6.52B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -290.00M | -284.00M | 1.40B | 288.00M | 591.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.15B | 841.00M | 2.24B | 912.00M | 1.23B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -760.00M | -1.56B | -926.00M | -729.00M | -885.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -385.00M | 99.00M | -530.00M | -159.00M | -303.00M |
AGL Energy Technical Analysis
Positive
8.57
Price Trends
8.27
Positive
8.48
Positive
8.74
Negative
Market Momentum
0.13
Negative
61.56
Neutral
75.21
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:AGL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 8.57 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.56, above the 50-day MA of 8.27, and below the 200-day MA of 8.74, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.13 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.56 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.21 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:AGL.
AGL Energy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | AU$19.48B | 12.47 | 15.84% | 5.29% | -9.87% | 6.18% | |
66 Neutral | AU$5.87B | 7.79 | 15.10% | 5.73% | -5.58% | ― | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
60 Neutral | AU$14.44B | 69.36 | 8.04% | 5.32% | -6.35% | 105.89% | |
50 Neutral | AU$277.44M | -0.42 | -90.93% | ― | ― | ― | |
50 Neutral | AU$118.69M | -8.60 | -718.72% | ― | 27.74% | 49.26% | |
45 Neutral | AU$45.01M | -4.01 | -138.53% | ― | ― | -29.75% |
* Utilities Sector Average
AU:AGL
AGL Energy
8.67
0.87
11.15%
AU:APA
APA Group
10.81
2.45
29.37%
AU:EWC
Energy World Corporation Ltd
0.07
0.01
18.03%
AU:JNS
ReNu Energy Limited
0.65
0.51
348.28%
AU:ORG
Origin Energy Limited
11.22
-0.54
-4.55%
AU:14D
1414 Degrees Ltd.
0.06
0.04
190.48%
AGL Energy Corporate Events
AGL Director Elizabeth Donaghey Increases On-Market Shareholding
Aug 17, 2026
AGL Energy has disclosed a change in the shareholdings of director Elizabeth (Betsy) Donaghey, as required under ASX listing rules and the Corporations Act. The filing outlines her updated interest in the company’s ordinary shares and confir...
AGL Energy Sets October Date for 2026 AGM as Transition Strategy Takes Focus
Aug 14, 2026
AGL Energy has announced details for its 2026 Annual General Meeting, scheduled for 10:30am AEST on 1 October 2026 at the Melbourne Convention and Exhibition Centre in Melbourne. The company has released the formal notice of meeting, voting form a...
AGL Energy Files 2026 Corporate Governance Statement with ASX
Aug 11, 2026
AGL Energy has lodged its 2026 Corporate Governance Statement and accompanying Appendix 4G with the ASX, confirming the company’s governance disclosures for the year ended 30 June 2026 are current as of 12 August and approved by its board. B...
AGL Energy Publishes FY26 Full-Year Results Presentation
Aug 11, 2026
AGL Energy has released its full-year results presentation for the financial year ended 30 June 2026, providing the market with updated performance information and strategic progress. The presentation, authorised by the board, reflects AGL’s...
AGL Energy Declares Interim Dividend for June 2026 Half-Year
Aug 11, 2026
AGL Energy has announced a new interim dividend of AUD 0.26 per ordinary fully paid share for the six-month period ended 30 June 2026. The stock will trade ex-dividend on 25 August, with a record date of 26 August and payment scheduled for 24 Sept...
AGL Energy Posts Surge in Statutory Profit Despite Revenue Dip
Aug 11, 2026
AGL Energy has reported its financial results for the year ended 30 June 2026, showing a 5.2% decline in revenue to A$13.59 billion but a sharp increase in statutory profit after tax to A$756 million, largely driven by changes in the fair value of...
AGL Energy Sets Date for FY26 Results Webcast as It Pushes Low-Emissions Strategy
Jul 21, 2026
AGL Energy, one of Australia’s largest integrated energy providers, serves about 4.7 million customer services across energy, telecommunications and streaming. It owns the largest private electricity generation portfolio in the National Elec...
AGL Energy Reports Lapse of 127,638 Performance Rights
Jun 30, 2026
AGL Energy Limited has notified the market of the cessation of 127,638 performance rights, identified under ASX code AGLAA, following the lapse of conditional rights. The rights expired on May 29, 2026, because the conditions attached to those sec...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.