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APA Group (APA) AI Stock Analysis
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APA Group
(ASX:APA)
The score is primarily held back by financial structure risk (high leverage) and an uneven income profile (including a sharp 2026 revenue decline), despite strong and stable operating cash generation. Technicals are mildly supportive with the stock trading above major moving averages, but momentum is not strongly positive. Valuation is a meaningful drag due to a very high P/E, partly offset by a strong dividend yield. The latest earnings call was a positive contributor, supported by EBITDA/distribution growth guidance, margin expansion, and a funded growth pipeline, tempered by financing headwinds and project/regulatory risks.
APA Group (APA) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
- Market Cap
- AUD 11.05B
- Dividend Yield
- 5.15%
- Average Volume (3M)
- 2.76M
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 71.6
- Beta (1Y)
- -0.15
- Revenue Growth
- -6.35%
- EPS Growth
- 105.89%
- Country
- Australia
- Employees
- 2,700
- Sector
- Utilities
- Sector Strength
- 66
- Industry
- Regulated Gas
APA Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
APA Group is an Australian enterprise primarily focused on the energy infrastructure sector. Its business activities are structured across three main segments: Energy Infrastructure, Asset Management, and Energy Investments. The company's diverse por...
How the Company Makes Money
APA Group makes money primarily by providing contracted energy infrastructure services—most notably the transportation and distribution of natural gas—using its networks and related facilities. Revenue is largely generated through long-term arrangeme...
APA Group Earnings Call Summary
The call emphasized strong financial performance (8.3% EBITDA growth), substantial margin expansion (+370 bps), delivered cost savings ($80m in FY '26, ~$100m annualized) and a materially expanded, funded $3.5bn growth pipeline. These positives were balanced against operational softness in select East Coast assets (notably VTS), higher financing and tax cash outflows, earnings reductions from divestments of noncore businesses, project timing/FID risks (e.g., Brigalow) and remaining execution/regulatory uncertainties around large‑scale opportunities such as Beetaloo. On balance the positives (cash flow generation, structural cost savings, margin expansion, funded growth pipeline and ESG/safety outcomes) materially outweigh the noted risks and challenges.
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
APA guided FY‑27 underlying EBITDA of $2.26–$2.34 billion (midpoint implying ~5.4% growth on FY‑26), distribution guidance of $0.59 per security (up from $0.58 in FY‑26, the 22nd consecutive year of growth), and said free cash flow should grow broadly in line with inflation. Key financial metrics underpinning the guidance: FY‑26 underlying EBITDA was up 8.3% with EBITDA margin expansion of 370 basis points to 77.9% and free cash flow up 3.2% to just over $1.1 billion; APA delivered $80 million of cost reductions in FY‑26 (exceeding a $50 million target) and expects an incremental $20 million in FY‑27 to reach an annualized run‑rate of ~$100 million. The company also increased its FY‑27–FY‑29 organic growth pipeline from $3.0 billion to $3.5 billion (fully funded), reiterated target project returns of at least 150 basis points above post‑tax WACC, and signalled foundational CapEx of about $100–120 million in FY‑27 (moderating to ~ $80 million in FY‑29), with FY‑27 EBITDA growth driven by inflation‑linked tariff escalations and contributions from new assets (e.g., Sturt Plateau, Basslink conversion and other announced projects).
APA Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Operating cash flow is consistently strong and free cash flow improved in 2025–2026, supporting distributions. However, financial risk is constrained by very high leverage (debt-to-equity cited as ~7.3x in 2025) and the income profile shows volatility, including a sharp revenue decline in 2026 despite net income improving versus 2025.
Income Statement
62PositiveBalance Sheet
45NeutralCash Flow
66Positive| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.99B | 2.99B | 3.14B | 3.03B | 2.83B | 2.69B |
| Gross Profit | 1.13B | 1.13B | 1.00B | 2.81B | 947.00M | 911.02M |
| EBITDA | 2.18B | 2.18B | 1.94B | 2.62B | 1.70B | 1.66B |
| Net Income | 220.00M | 234.00M | 99.00M | 978.00M | 263.00M | 230.56M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 20.22B | 20.22B | 19.94B | 19.56B | 16.52B | 16.20B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.64B | 1.64B | 800.00M | 676.00M | 513.00M | 940.28M |
| Total Debt | 14.15B | 14.15B | 14.02B | 12.99B | 11.59B | 10.96B |
| Total Liabilities | 17.52B | 17.52B | 17.27B | 16.32B | 14.61B | 13.57B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.70B | 2.70B | 1.92B | 3.25B | 1.91B | 2.63B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 428.00M | 428.00M | 320.00M | 60.00M | 26.00M | 508.22M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.25B | 1.25B | 1.28B | 1.16B | 1.21B | 1.20B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -748.00M | -748.00M | -947.00M | -2.66B | -969.00M | -1.27B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 331.00M | 331.00M | -212.00M | 1.66B | -664.00M | 360.66M |
APA Group Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:APA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 11.27 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.15, above the 50-day MA of 10.94, and above the 200-day MA of 9.97, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.16 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 57.25 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.08 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:APA.
APA Group Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
AU:ORG69Neutral
AU:AGL66Neutral- AU:APA60Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AU:ORG | 69Neutral | AUD 21.00B | 13.44 | 15.84% | 4.91% | -9.87% | 6.18% |
| AU:AGL | 66Neutral | AUD 6.07B | 8.05 | 15.10% | 5.54% | -5.58% | ― |
| Sector * | 66Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% |
| AU:APA | 60Neutral | AUD 15.02B | 71.65 | 8.04% | 5.15% | -6.35% | 105.89% |
* Utilities Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AU:APA | APA Group | 11.27 | 2.62 | 30.32% | |
| AU:AGL | AGL Energy Limited | 9.02 | 0.38 | 4.36% | |
| AU:ORG | Origin Energy Limited | 12.23 | 0.47 | 4.04% |
APA Group Corporate Events
APA Group backs Mount Isa with $259m solar and battery project
APA Group has approved a $259 million investment to construct, own and operate the 72 MW Sybella Creek Solar Farm and a 52 MW, 104 MWh battery energy storage system in Mount Isa, Queensland, backed by a long-term energy supply agreement with Evolutio...
APA Group Releases Updated Corporate Governance Statement
APA Group, a major ASX-listed energy infrastructure operator, controls more than $20 billion in assets spanning gas transmission, processing, compression, storage, power generation, battery storage and electricity transmission. Its extensive pipeline...
APA Group Sets Final 30.5c Distribution for June 2026 Half-Year
APA Group has announced final distribution details for the six months ended 30 June 2026, setting a total distribution of 30.50 cents per security, with key tax components split between APA Infrastructure Trust and APA Investment Trust. The payment w...
APA Group lodges FY26 full-year results presentation with ASX
APA Group has released its financial results presentation for the full year ended 30 June 2026, providing investors with detailed information on the company’s FY26 performance. The presentation, lodged with the ASX for APA Group and APA Infrast...
APA Group lifts FY26 earnings, expands $3.5bn growth pipeline
APA Group reported a robust FY26 performance, with underlying EBITDA up 8.3% to $2,183 million and margins rising to 77.9%, supported by inflation-linked tariffs, newly commissioned assets and $80 million of cost-out initiatives that beat its target....
APA Group Updates June 2026 Distribution Details for Stapled Securities
APA Group has updated its notification to investors regarding a scheduled distribution on its fully paid stapled securities for the six-month period ended 30 June 2026. The adjustment revises the total distribution payment amount per security and upd...
APA Group lifts earnings and cash flow despite revenue decline in 2026 results
APA Group has reported its annual financial results for the year ended 30 June 2026, highlighting solid operational performance in its energy infrastructure portfolio despite a dip in headline revenue. Total revenue, including equity-accounted invest...
APA faces investor-led governance and capital discipline resolutions at 2026 AGM
APA Group has received a set of securityholder-requisitioned resolutions for consideration at its 22 October 2026 annual meeting, lodged under section 252L of the Corporations Act, from investors holding about 0.01482% of its stapled securities. The...
APA Group Adjusts FX Rate and DRP Price for Half-Year Distribution
APA Group has updated its notification regarding a distribution on its fully paid stapled securities for the six-month period ending 30 June 2026, listed under ASX code APA. The change revises the New Zealand dollar exchange rate applied to the payou...
APA Group lifts estimated final FY26 distribution and activates discounted DRP
APA Group has estimated a final distribution of 30.5 cents per security for the six months to 30 June 2026, a 1.7% increase on the prior year’s final payout, taking forecast total FY26 distributions to 58.0 cents per security in line with earli...
APA Group sets September payment for AUD 0.305 half-year distribution
APA Group has declared a distribution of AUD 0.305 per fully paid stapled security for the six-month period ending 30 June 2026, with an ex-date of 29 June, a record date of 30 June and payment scheduled for 16 September 2026. The announcement underl...
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Aug 22, 2026