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Origin Energy Limited
(Sydney:ORG)
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Rating:80Outperform
Price Target:
AU$12.50
▲(17.70% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:03/26/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (revenue and margin expansion with a solid balance sheet), reinforced by attractive valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield). Technicals remain supportive but are near overbought, and earnings-call positives (upgraded Energy Markets guidance and cash generation) are tempered by Octopus losses and gas/LNG and policy-related uncertainties.
Positive Factors
Revenue & Margin Expansion
Sustained revenue growth and materially improved gross and net margins reflect durable operational improvements across retail and generation. Higher margins expand recurring cash generation capacity, supporting reinvestment, deleveraging or shareholder returns over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Octopus Investment-Phase Losses
Material losses at Octopus reflect heavy investment in international growth and platform build‑out. While scale may eventually deliver returns, ongoing investment-phase losses and capitalization changes can depress group EBITDA and require capital allocation that limits near-term free cash flow.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue & Margin Expansion
Sustained revenue growth and materially improved gross and net margins reflect durable operational improvements across retail and generation. Higher margins expand recurring cash generation capacity, supporting reinvestment, deleveraging or shareholder returns over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Origin Energy Limited (ORG) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$20.72B
Dividend Yield4.93%
Average Volume (3M)3.34M
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.3
Beta (1Y)0.46
Revenue Growth-9.87%
EPS Growth6.18%
CountryAU
Employees5,000
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryOil & Gas Integrated
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.91
Shares Outstanding1,722,747,700
10 Day Avg. Volume3,785,455
30 Day Avg. Volume3,339,156
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.71
Price to Book (P/B)1.86
Price to Sales (P/S)1.22
P/FCF Ratio10.90
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$11.97Price Target Upside12.75% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)0.65
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$15.33B
Origin Energy Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Origin Energy Limited is an integrated energy enterprise operating across Australia and internationally. Its diverse activities encompass the exploration and extraction of natural gas, electricity generation from various sources such as coal, wind...
How the Company Makes Money
Origin primarily makes money through (1) energy retailing and (2) electricity generation and related energy market activities.
1) Energy retailing (customer supply)
- Origin sells electricity and natural gas to end customers under retail contract...
Origin Energy Limited Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 12, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 17, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a predominantly positive operational and financial outcome: strong EBITDA, exceptional cash generation (~$2.1bn adjusted free cash flow), battery program delivery on time/on budget, meaningful cost‑out and customer growth, and a strengthened balance sheet with leverage at 1.6x. Notable risks remain — a large data security incident affecting 900k customers, near‑term earnings pressure from Kraken migration costs, policy uncertainty around domestic gas reservation, elevated new‑build costs that challenge projects like Yanco Delta, and expected moderation of electricity gross profit as lower forward prices flow through — but management outlined mitigation, disciplined capital allocation and clear operational progress. On balance, the positive financial performance, cash conversion and strategic progress materially outweigh the disclosed challenges.Positive Updates
Strong Group Earnings and Cash Generation
Underlying EBITDA of $3.22 billion and statutory profit of $1.574 billion, with underlying profit of $1.159 billion. Cash from operating activities was $1.9 billion (up ~ $1.5 billion year‑on‑year) and adjusted free cash flow was ~$2.1 billion (increase of $867 million), driving a materially stronger cash position.
Negative Updates
Data Security Incident Impacting Customers
Unauthorized access to customer information affecting 900,000 customers; ongoing criminal investigation and remediation actions underway (extended support, identity/cyber services). This is a material reputational and operational issue.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Group Earnings and Cash Generation
Underlying EBITDA of $3.22 billion and statutory profit of $1.574 billion, with underlying profit of $1.159 billion. Cash from operating activities was $1.9 billion (up ~ $1.5 billion year‑on‑year) and adjusted free cash flow was ~$2.1 billion (increase of $867 million), driving a materially stronger cash position.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided FY‑27 Energy Markets EBITDA at $1.55–1.85bn, total Group CapEx at $450–650m and said the battery ramp‑up should help offset lower wholesale prices; APLNG production is guided to 625–670 PJ with CapEx/OpEx (ex purchases) of $3.0–3.3bn, ~40% of APLNG’s JCC exposure for FY‑27 already priced at USD100/bbl (noting FY‑26 realized oil was ~USD72/bbl), and Octopus/Craken guidance includes UK retail EBITDA per customer of GBP25–50 and Kraken revenue growth >20% in FY‑27. FY‑26 metrics noted as context: adjusted FCF ~USD/AUD $2.1bn (up ~$867m), adjusted net debt $4.85bn (net debt/EBITDA 1.6x, expected to move to the lower end of the 2x–3x range), and FY‑26 dividend maintained at $0.60 fully franked (interim $0.30) implying ~5.6% yield pre‑franking.Origin Energy Limited Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 15.43B | 17.12B | 15.98B | 16.38B | 14.38B |
| Gross Profit | 2.04B | 3.28B | 3.15B | 1.97B | 996.00M |
| EBITDA | 1.96B | 2.31B | 1.78B | 866.00M | -252.00M |
| Net Income | 1.57B | 1.48B | 1.40B | 1.05B | -1.43B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 20.78B | 20.99B | 20.45B | 18.95B | 24.02B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.00B | 1.01B | 1.38B | 930.00M | 1.48B |
| Total Debt | 4.99B | 4.84B | 3.38B | 3.26B | 3.39B |
| Total Liabilities | 10.64B | 11.07B | 10.96B | 10.04B | 14.00B |
| Stockholders Equity | 10.13B | 9.92B | 9.49B | 8.89B | 10.00B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.73B | -1.05B | 461.00M | 576.00M | 2.46B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.63B | 425.00M | 1.11B | 1.05B | 2.80B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -990.00M | -870.00M | -16.00M | -608.00M | 390.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.50B | -19.00M | -953.00M | -579.00M | -3.04B |
Origin Energy Limited Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | AU$20.72B | 13.26 | 10.39% | 5.60% | -9.87% | 6.18% | |
66 Neutral | AU$13.32B | 80.93 | 6.91% | 5.64% | 0.95% | ― | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
54 Neutral | AU$5.93B | 7.88 | 15.10% | 5.75% | -5.58% | ― | |
54 Neutral | AU$205.85M | 25.22 | 8.32% | 1.08% | 14.53% | 16.89% | |
52 Neutral | AU$70.51M | -23.57 | -13.64% | ― | 16.99% | ― | |
34 Underperform | AU$62.79M | -0.23 | -31.05% | ― | ― | ― |
* Utilities Sector Average
AU:ORG
Origin Energy Limited
12.07
-0.09
-0.76%
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Origin Energy Limited Corporate Events
Origin Energy Sets 2026 AGM Date and Key Shareholder Milestones
Aug 3, 2026
Origin Energy has set 14 October 2026 as the date for its Annual General Meeting, to be held at 10:00am, and outlined a timetable of key shareholder events for the remainder of the year. Director nomination deadlines, the annual results announceme...
Origin Energy posts strong FY26 results, boosts drilling as Octopus grows and cyber incident unfolds
Jul 30, 2026
Origin Energy reported solid June quarter and FY26 performance across its Integrated Gas, Energy Markets and Octopus Energy segments, with Australia Pacific LNG production of 668 PJ and dividends of $911 million, both near the top of guidance. Jun...
Origin Energy details customer data exposure in cyber incident
Jul 23, 2026
Origin Energy has confirmed that a recent data security incident resulted in unauthorised access and disclosure of some customer information, including names, addresses, dates of birth, contact numbers, account details and partial payment card or ...
Origin Energy probes possible customer data security breach
Jul 22, 2026
Origin Energy Limited has disclosed that it is investigating a potential security incident involving possible unauthorised access to some customer data, though it does not believe credit card or bank details are affected. The company has acknowled...
Origin Energy cancels more than 66,000 lapsed share rights
Jul 9, 2026
Origin Energy Limited has reported the lapse of several classes of share rights, resulting in the cessation of a total of 66,340 securities. These include performance share rights, share rights, and restricted share rights that expired on 30 June ...
Origin Energy issues new shares from conversion of unquoted securities
Jul 9, 2026
Origin Energy Limited has notified the market of the issue of 25,161 new ordinary fully paid shares, following the conversion or exercise of previously unquoted equity securities. The new shares, issued on 30 June 2026, reflect the company’s...
Origin Energy Issues 177,043 Unquoted Share Rights Under Employee Scheme
Jul 9, 2026
Origin Energy Limited has notified the market of the issue of 177,043 unquoted share rights under its employee incentive scheme, effective 30 April 2026. The move underscores the company’s continued use of equity-based remuneration to align ...
Origin Energy Issues New Unquoted Share Rights Under Employee Scheme
May 5, 2026
Origin Energy Limited has notified the market of the issue of 345 unquoted share rights under its employee incentive scheme, effective 30 April 2026. The move reflects ongoing use of equity-based remuneration to align staff interests with sharehol...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.