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Origin Energy Limited (AU:ORG)
ASX:ORG
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Origin Energy Limited (ORG) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:ORG

Origin Energy Limited

(Sydney:ORG)

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Outperform 71 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
AU$14.00
▲(17.65% Upside)
Origin Energy Limited shows strong financial performance with robust revenue and profit growth, though cash flow management needs attention. The stock's valuation is reasonable with an attractive dividend yield. Technical indicators suggest neutral momentum but potential overbought conditions.

Origin Energy Limited (ORG) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Origin Energy Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionOrigin Energy Limited (ORG) is an Australian integrated energy company primarily engaged in the generation and retailing of electricity and gas. The company operates across various sectors, including energy generation, renewable energy, and natural gas supply, catering to both residential and commercial customers. Its core products encompass electricity, natural gas, and renewable energy solutions, with a growing focus on solar and wind energy initiatives to support Australia's transition to a low-carbon economy.
How the Company Makes MoneyOrigin Energy generates revenue through multiple key streams. The primary source is its energy retail business, which sells electricity and gas to residential and commercial customers. Additionally, the company derives income from its energy generation segment, which includes a mix of fossil fuel-based and renewable energy sources. Significant revenue also comes from the sale of natural gas, both domestically and through exports, particularly from its investments in LNG projects. Origin has established partnerships with various solar companies and renewable energy projects, enhancing its portfolio and market presence. Moreover, the company participates in energy trading, which allows it to capitalize on fluctuations in energy prices, contributing further to its earnings.

Origin Energy Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Origin Energy Limited demonstrates strong revenue and profit growth, supported by improved margins and a stable balance sheet. However, the recent negative free cash flow is a concern, indicating a need for improved cash flow management.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Origin Energy Limited has shown strong revenue growth with a 90.2% increase in the latest year, indicating robust top-line expansion. The gross profit margin improved to 19.2%, reflecting effective cost management. Net profit margin also increased to 8.7%, showcasing enhanced profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have improved, indicating operational efficiency gains.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
The company's debt-to-equity ratio has remained stable, indicating a balanced approach to leverage. Return on equity improved to 14.7%, reflecting strong profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio suggests a solid capital structure with a significant portion of assets financed by equity.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Operating cash flow has decreased, but the company has managed to maintain a positive free cash flow to net income ratio, indicating efficient cash generation relative to earnings. The significant growth in free cash flow is a positive sign, although the negative free cash flow in the latest year is a concern.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue17.20B17.12B15.98B16.38B14.38B11.88B
Gross Profit2.65B3.28B3.15B1.97B996.00M1.62B
EBITDA1.50B2.31B1.78B866.00M-252.00M-1.37B
Net Income1.48B1.48B1.40B1.05B-1.43B-2.28B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets20.99B20.99B20.45B18.95B24.02B21.31B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.01B1.01B1.38B930.00M1.48B975.00M
Total Debt4.84B4.84B3.38B3.26B3.39B5.23B
Total Liabilities11.07B11.07B10.96B10.04B14.00B11.83B
Stockholders Equity9.92B9.92B9.49B8.89B10.00B9.46B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-903.00M-1.05B461.00M576.00M2.46B521.00M
Operating Cash Flow498.00M425.00M1.11B1.05B2.80B860.00M
Investing Cash Flow-1.69B-870.00M-16.00M-608.00M390.00M106.00M
Financing Cash Flow175.00M-19.00M-953.00M-579.00M-3.04B-1.73B

Origin Energy Limited Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price11.90
Price Trends
50DMA
12.45
Negative
100DMA
11.97
Negative
200DMA
11.13
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.02
Positive
RSI
36.57
Neutral
STOCH
35.97
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:ORG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 11.9 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.35, below the 50-day MA of 12.45, and above the 200-day MA of 11.13, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.57 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 35.97 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:ORG.

Origin Energy Limited Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
71
Outperform
$20.43B13.8015.06%4.85%6.48%6.25%
66
Neutral
$17.65B18.105.60%3.62%6.62%11.55%
65
Neutral
AU$20.54B12.996.59%5.77%-5.81%-17.90%
60
Neutral
AU$2.84B-64.84-1.02%7.22%17.16%90.79%
57
Neutral
AU$254.10M-46.72-6.30%-67.12%
47
Neutral
AU$377.94M-1.91-42.02%59.48%-1714.71%
35
Underperform
AU$754.78M-9.79
* Utilities Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:ORG
Origin Energy Limited
11.90
2.53
26.93%
AU:BKY
Berkeley Energia
0.57
0.22
62.86%
AU:BPT
Beach Energy
1.25
0.09
7.33%
AU:STO
Santos Limited
6.34
0.03
0.46%
AU:STX
Strike Energy Limited
0.10
-0.12
-54.55%
AU:TBN
Tamboran Resources Limited
0.19
0.05
35.71%

Origin Energy Limited Corporate Events

Origin Energy Announces Director’s Interest Change
Oct 21, 2025

Origin Energy Limited has announced a change in the director’s interest, specifically involving Frank Calabria. The change, effective from October 15, 2025, involves the acquisition of 123,457 Performance Share Rights and 123,457 Restricted Share Rights. This update reflects the company’s ongoing adjustments in its executive shareholding structure, which may impact its corporate governance and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ORG) stock is a Buy with a A$13.90 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Origin Energy Limited stock, see the AU:ORG Stock Forecast page.

Origin Energy Issues Unquoted Equity Securities for Employee Incentive
Oct 21, 2025

Origin Energy Limited announced the issuance of unquoted equity securities, specifically performance share rights and restricted share rights, as part of an employee incentive scheme. This move is likely aimed at aligning employee interests with company performance, potentially enhancing operational efficiency and stakeholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ORG) stock is a Buy with a A$13.90 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Origin Energy Limited stock, see the AU:ORG Stock Forecast page.

Origin Energy’s AGM Approves Key Resolutions and Climate Action Plan
Oct 15, 2025

Origin Energy Limited held its Annual General Meeting on 15 October 2025, where all resolutions were passed by poll. Key resolutions included the election and re-election of board members, approval of the remuneration report, and adoption of the 2025 Climate Transition Action Plan. These decisions reflect the company’s ongoing commitment to governance, executive management, and sustainability, potentially enhancing its industry positioning and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ORG) stock is a Buy with a A$13.90 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Origin Energy Limited stock, see the AU:ORG Stock Forecast page.

Origin Energy Highlights Strong Performance and Strategic Investments at 2025 AGM
Oct 14, 2025

At its 2025 Annual General Meeting, Origin Energy highlighted its strong performance across customer, operational, financial, and shareholder metrics. The company emphasized its strategic investments in retail operations, reliability, and productivity, as well as its stake in Octopus Energy and Kraken Technologies. Origin’s efforts in the energy transition are underscored by its $1.7 billion investment in battery technology and securing transmission rights for a major wind farm project. The company also reported strong growth in its retail business and continued success with Octopus Energy, despite the rapidly evolving energy landscape.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ORG) stock is a Buy with a A$13.90 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Origin Energy Limited stock, see the AU:ORG Stock Forecast page.

Origin Energy Announces Board Change with Director Retirement
Oct 14, 2025

Origin Energy Limited announced the retirement of Ms. Maxine Brenner from its Board of Directors, effective 15 October 2025. This change in the board’s composition could influence the company’s strategic direction and governance, potentially impacting stakeholders and the company’s positioning in the energy sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ORG) stock is a Buy with a A$13.90 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Origin Energy Limited stock, see the AU:ORG Stock Forecast page.

Origin Energy Issues Unquoted Equity Securities for Employee Incentive
Oct 14, 2025

Origin Energy Limited announced the issuance of unquoted equity securities as part of an employee incentive scheme. This move involves the allocation of performance share rights, share rights, and restricted share rights, which are not intended to be quoted on the ASX. The issuance of these securities is a strategic step to align employee interests with company performance, potentially enhancing employee motivation and retention.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ORG) stock is a Buy with a A$13.90 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Origin Energy Limited stock, see the AU:ORG Stock Forecast page.

Origin Energy Announces Director’s Change in Securities Interest
Oct 3, 2025

Origin Energy Limited has announced a change in the director’s interest in securities, specifically involving Nora Scheinkestel. The change involves the acquisition of 845 fully paid ordinary shares, which are held indirectly through Scheinkestel Superannuation Pty Ltd. This update reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to transparency and regulatory compliance, ensuring stakeholders are informed of changes in director interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ORG) stock is a Buy with a A$13.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Origin Energy Limited stock, see the AU:ORG Stock Forecast page.

Origin Energy Director Sells Shares to Cover Tax Obligations
Sep 18, 2025

Origin Energy Limited announced that its director, Frank Calabria, has sold shares primarily to cover personal tax obligations related to the vesting of equity incentives. Despite this sale, Mr. Calabria maintains a significant interest in the company, exceeding the Minimum Shareholding Requirement. The transaction was conducted in compliance with the company’s Dealing in Securities Policy, ensuring transparency and adherence to corporate governance standards.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ORG) stock is a Buy with a A$13.90 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Origin Energy Limited stock, see the AU:ORG Stock Forecast page.

Origin Energy Announces 2025 Annual General Meeting Details
Sep 10, 2025

Origin Energy Limited has announced its 2025 Annual General Meeting (AGM) for shareholders, scheduled to take place at the Shangri-La Sydney on 15 October 2025. The meeting will be available via a live webcast on the company’s website, allowing stakeholders to stay informed about any potential changes to the event arrangements.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ORG) stock is a Buy with a A$14.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Origin Energy Limited stock, see the AU:ORG Stock Forecast page.

Origin Energy Director’s Share Sale for Tax Obligations
Sep 8, 2025

Origin Energy Limited announced the sale of shares by its director, Mr. Frank Calabria, primarily to meet personal tax obligations related to the vesting of equity incentives. Despite the sale, Mr. Calabria maintains a substantial interest in the company, exceeding the minimum shareholding requirements. This transaction was conducted in line with Origin’s Dealing in Securities Policy, indicating a transparent and compliant approach to director share dealings.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ORG) stock is a Sell with a A$11.11 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Origin Energy Limited stock, see the AU:ORG Stock Forecast page.

Origin Energy Issues Unquoted Equity Securities as Part of Employee Incentive Scheme
Sep 8, 2025

Origin Energy Limited has announced the issuance of unquoted equity securities, specifically performance share rights and restricted share rights, totaling 324,027 securities. These securities are part of an employee incentive scheme and are not intended to be quoted on the ASX. This move reflects the company’s strategy to incentivize employees, potentially impacting its operational efficiency and aligning employee interests with company performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ORG) stock is a Sell with a A$11.11 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Origin Energy Limited stock, see the AU:ORG Stock Forecast page.

Origin Energy Announces Director’s Interest Changes
Aug 28, 2025

Origin Energy Limited has announced a change in the director’s interest notice for Mr. Frank Calabria and Dr. Nora Scheinkestel. This update reflects a shift in the holdings of securities, including fully paid ordinary shares and performance share rights, which may impact the company’s governance and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ORG) stock is a Buy with a A$14.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Origin Energy Limited stock, see the AU:ORG Stock Forecast page.

Origin Energy Issues Unquoted Share Rights for Employee Incentive
Aug 25, 2025

Origin Energy Limited announced the issuance of 218 share rights under an employee incentive scheme, which are not intended to be quoted on the ASX. This move reflects the company’s strategy to incentivize and retain employees, potentially impacting its operational efficiency and stakeholder interests positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ORG) stock is a Buy with a A$14.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Origin Energy Limited stock, see the AU:ORG Stock Forecast page.

Origin Energy Issues New Securities to Enhance Capital Base
Aug 25, 2025

Origin Energy Limited has announced the issuance of 1,488 ordinary fully paid securities, effective from August 18, 2025. This move reflects the company’s ongoing financial activities and could influence its market positioning by potentially increasing its capital base, impacting stakeholders and investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ORG) stock is a Buy with a A$14.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Origin Energy Limited stock, see the AU:ORG Stock Forecast page.

Origin Energy Reports Strong FY25 Profit Growth
Aug 14, 2025

Origin Energy Limited is a leading integrated energy company in Australia, operating in retail, power generation, and natural gas production, with a significant investment in Octopus Energy. In its latest earnings report, Origin Energy reported a statutory profit of $1,481 million for FY25, an increase from the previous year, driven by higher earnings from Integrated Gas and LNG trading. The company also saw a rise in underlying profit to $1,490 million, attributed to a reduction in income tax expenses. Key operational highlights include the growth of customer accounts by 104,000, advancements in battery projects, and significant contributions to the domestic gas market. Despite challenges in the energy transition, Origin Energy remains optimistic about future opportunities and is committed to achieving net zero emissions by 2050. Looking forward, the company expects stable electricity gross profit and moderate improvements in gas gross profit, while continuing to focus on cost reductions and strategic investments in renewable energy and storage solutions.

Origin Energy Releases 2025 Sustainability Report
Aug 13, 2025

Origin Energy Limited has released its 2025 Sustainability Report, highlighting the company’s ongoing commitment to sustainable practices and its strategic initiatives to reduce environmental impact. This report underscores Origin Energy’s efforts to enhance its sustainability credentials, which is likely to bolster its reputation and influence within the energy sector, while also addressing stakeholder concerns about environmental responsibility.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ORG) stock is a Buy with a A$11.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Origin Energy Limited stock, see the AU:ORG Stock Forecast page.

Origin Energy Releases FY25 Financial Results
Aug 13, 2025

Origin Energy Limited has released its FY25 results, highlighting the company’s financial performance for the year ending June 30, 2025. The announcement, presented by CEO Frank Calabria and CFO Tony Lucas, is expected to provide insights into the company’s operational strategies and market positioning, potentially impacting stakeholders and the broader energy industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ORG) stock is a Buy with a A$11.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Origin Energy Limited stock, see the AU:ORG Stock Forecast page.

Origin Energy Unveils Climate Transition Action Plan
Aug 13, 2025

Origin Energy Limited has announced its Climate Transition Action Plan, highlighting its commitment to reducing carbon emissions and transitioning towards more sustainable energy practices. This plan is expected to significantly impact the company’s operations by aligning with global sustainability goals, potentially enhancing its market positioning and offering long-term benefits for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ORG) stock is a Buy with a A$11.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Origin Energy Limited stock, see the AU:ORG Stock Forecast page.

Origin Energy Reports Increased Profit and Advances Clean Energy Initiatives
Aug 13, 2025

Origin Energy Limited reported a statutory profit of $1,481 million for the year ending June 2025, an increase from the previous year. The underlying profit rose significantly due to fully franked dividends from Australia Pacific LNG, despite a decline in underlying EBITDA. The company declared a fully franked final dividend of 30 cents per share, reflecting strong cash flow and balance sheet strength. Origin is advancing its energy transition strategy by investing in battery projects, wind farm transmission access, and expanding customer solutions, including solar and electric vehicle offerings.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ORG) stock is a Buy with a A$11.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Origin Energy Limited stock, see the AU:ORG Stock Forecast page.

Origin Energy Announces Dividend Distribution for Shareholders
Aug 13, 2025

Origin Energy Limited has announced a dividend distribution of AUD 0.30 per ordinary fully paid share, relating to a six-month period ending on June 30, 2025. The record date for shareholders to be eligible for this dividend is September 4, 2025, with the payment scheduled for October 3, 2025. This announcement reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to returning value to its shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ORG) stock is a Buy with a A$11.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Origin Energy Limited stock, see the AU:ORG Stock Forecast page.

Origin Energy Reports Strong Financial Performance for FY 2025
Aug 13, 2025

Origin Energy Limited reported a 7% increase in total group revenue to $17.224 billion and a 6% rise in profit to $1.481 billion for the financial year ending June 30, 2025. The company also announced a final dividend of 30 cents per security, reflecting a positive financial performance and solid market positioning, which may reassure stakeholders and investors about its operational stability and growth prospects.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ORG) stock is a Buy with a A$11.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Origin Energy Limited stock, see the AU:ORG Stock Forecast page.

Origin Energy Appoints New Directors to Strengthen Board
Aug 10, 2025

Origin Energy Limited has announced the appointment of Ms. Fiona Hick and Mr. Stephen Mikkelsen as independent Non-executive Directors, effective August 18, 2025. Both bring extensive experience in the energy and resources sector, with backgrounds in finance, engineering, and operations. This strategic move aims to bolster Origin’s board as it continues its energy transition strategy. Additionally, Ms. Maxine Brenner, an independent Non-executive Director, will retire following the 2025 Annual General Meeting, after 12 years of significant contributions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ORG) stock is a Buy with a A$11.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Origin Energy Limited stock, see the AU:ORG Stock Forecast page.

Origin Energy Sets Date for 2025 Annual General Meeting
Aug 8, 2025

Origin Energy Limited has announced that its Annual General Meeting will be held on October 15, 2025. Key dates for shareholders include the closing of director nominations on August 12, 2025, and the announcement of annual results on August 14, 2025. This announcement is crucial for stakeholders as it outlines the timeline for important corporate governance events and financial disclosures, impacting shareholder engagement and company transparency.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ORG) stock is a Buy with a A$11.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Origin Energy Limited stock, see the AU:ORG Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 01, 2025