ALSTOM UNSP (ALSMY) AI Stock Analysis

ALSTOM UNSP

(Other OTC:ALSMY)

Select Model

Rating:58Neutral

Price Target:$1.50▼(-15.01% Downside)

Action:reiterated

Date:09/12/26

The score is primarily supported by improved financial performance in 2026 (strong revenue growth, better margins, and manageable leverage), but is held back by weak recent technicals (below key moving averages and negative momentum) and cash-flow durability concerns (sharp free-cash-flow decline and uneven conversion). Valuation appears moderate (P/E ~21.83) without a dividend yield to strengthen the profile.

Positive Factors

Revenue and margin reboundThe sharp 2026 revenue expansion alongside improved net and EBIT margins indicates stronger operating performance after prior losses. If sustained, this rebound can support reinvestment, improve resilience in rail projects, and provide a better base for earnings growth over the next several quarters.

Negative Factors

Weak free-cash-flow conversionPositive operating and free cash flow in 2026 is offset by a steep year-over-year deterioration and weak conversion from reported earnings. If this pattern persists, internally generated funds may be less dependable for investment, debt service, and shareholder returns than the income statement suggests.

ALSTOM UNSP (ALSMY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap: $8.05B
Dividend Yield: ―
Average Volume (3M): 947.42K
Price to Earnings (P/E): 22.3
Beta (1Y): 0.23
Revenue Growth: 12.04%
EPS Growth: 115.03%
Country: US
Employees: 87,832
Sector: Industrials
Sector Strength: 63
Industry: Railroads

ALSTOM UNSP Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Alstom S.A., a company established in 1992 and based in Saint-Ouen, France, serves as a leading global provider of integrated solutions for the rail transport industry. Its comprehensive operations extend across diverse regions, including Europe, the...

How the Company Makes Money

Alstom primarily makes money by selling rail transportation products and by providing long-term services tied to those products and to customer rail networks. A major revenue stream comes from large, multi-year contracts with public and private rail...

ALSTOM UNSP Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 12, 2026(Q4-2026)|% Change Since:-10.63%|Next Earnings Date:Nov 16, 2026

Earnings Call SentimentNegative

The call highlighted strong commercial performance (record order intake, book-to-bill >1, organic sales growth +7%) and a constructive medium-term outlook (guidance to ~6.5% adjusted EBIT margin and positive annual free cash flow). However, significant operational execution issues—primarily in rolling stock ramp-ups and homologations—caused margin dilution, elevated costs, weaker-than-expected free cash flow (EUR 330m) and a large forecasted H1 cash outflow (~EUR 1.5bn). Management has prioritized deep operational changes and tighter planning, but near-term financial performance and cash seasonality remain material concerns.

Positive Updates

Record Commercial Momentum and Strong Order Intake

Alstom recorded approximately EUR 27.6 billion of orders for fiscal year 25-26 (management also referenced ~EUR 28 billion of order intake), delivering a book-to-bill ratio of 1.4 and a backlog of ~EUR 100 billion.

Negative Updates

Adjusted EBIT Margin Below Expectations

Adjusted EBIT margin for fiscal year 25-26 landed at around 6% (broadly stable at constant currency/scope but lower than prior year and below prior guidance), with margin pressure coming from rolling stock execution and higher R&D spend.

Company Guidance

Alstom guided for fiscal 2026‑27 to a book‑to‑bill above 1 and organic sales growth of around 5%, with adjusted EBIT margin expected to rebound to about 6.5% (versus ~6% in FY25‑26) and positive free cash flow for the year despite an expected H1 cash outflow of roughly EUR 1.5bn and a very strong H2 to offset it. Management reiterated key FY25‑26 preliminaries and liquidity metrics underpinning the outlook: orders ~EUR 27.6bn (record commercial activity ~EUR 28bn) and book‑to‑bill 1.4, backlog ~EUR 100bn, sales EUR 19.2bn (+4% reported, +7% organic), 4,284 cars produced (‑2% y/y), gross margin in the backlog 18%, free cash flow ~EUR 330m, financial net debt ~EUR 400m, gross cash EUR 2.3bn and available facilities (EUR 2.5bn and EUR 1.75bn RCFs plus a EUR 2.5bn commercial paper program), while flagging higher R&D and services CapEx and working‑capital seasonality as near‑term cash headwinds.

ALSTOM UNSP Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials show a clear rebound with strong 2026 revenue growth (~38.7%) and improved profitability (net margin ~2.9%, EBIT margin ~5.0%), plus manageable leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.33). Offsetting this, earnings and cash flows have been volatile across the cycle, and free cash flow weakened sharply versus 2025 (FCF growth ~-176%) with mixed cash conversion (FCF ~36% of net income).

Income Statement

71Positive

Balance Sheet

74Positive

Cash Flow

56Neutral

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2026	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	19.17B	19.17B	18.49B	17.62B	16.51B	15.47B
Gross Profit	2.35B	2.35B	2.30B	2.21B	1.97B	1.73B
EBITDA	1.47B	1.48B	1.26B	762.00M	792.00M	754.00M
Net Income	324.00M	324.00M	149.00M	-309.00M	-128.00M	-576.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	35.01B	35.01B	34.59B	33.25B	31.40B	30.52B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.30B	2.30B	2.27B	976.00M	826.00M	810.00M
Total Debt	3.56B	3.56B	3.52B	4.66B	3.70B	3.69B
Total Liabilities	24.22B	24.22B	24.01B	24.48B	22.29B	21.49B
Stockholders Equity	10.66B	10.66B	10.46B	8.67B	9.00B	8.91B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	328.38M	326.17M	490.00M	-567.00M	175.00M	-1.00B
Operating Cash Flow	912.24M	896.98M	972.00M	-82.00M	606.00M	-577.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-555.64M	-555.70M	123.00M	-431.00M	-478.00M	-443.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-280.62M	-274.83M	244.00M	696.00M	-61.00M	558.00M

ALSTOM UNSP Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative

Last Price1.76

Price Trends

50DMA1.80Negative

100DMA1.82Negative

200DMA2.23Negative

Market Momentum

MACD0.00Positive

RSI46.21Neutral

STOCH14.86Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ALSMY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.76 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.79, below the 50-day MA of 1.80, and below the 200-day MA of 2.23, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of 0.00 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.86 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ALSMY.

ALSTOM UNSP Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (63)

Financial Indicators

ALSMY against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GATX	75Outperform	$6.39B	16.69	14.10%	1.43%	29.67%	25.84%
WAB	74Outperform	$46.92B	34.65	12.17%	0.42%	13.25%	16.83%
Sector *	63Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
TRN	63Neutral	$2.30B	7.12	29.87%	4.21%	-2.38%	248.96%
FSTR	62Neutral	$377.13M	32.89	6.49%	―	10.13%	-67.50%
GBX	59Neutral	$1.21B	15.30	4.73%	3.38%	-23.97%	-60.98%
ALSMY	58Neutral	$8.20B	22.27	3.31%	―	12.04%	115.03%

* Industrials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

ALSMY and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
ALSMY	ALSTOM UNSP	1.76	-0.68	-27.93%
GATX	GATX Corporation	181.14	28.20	18.44%
GBX	Greenbrier Companies	39.01	-1.68	-4.14%
FSTR	L. B. Foster Company	35.85	8.91	33.07%
TRN	Trinity Industries, Inc.	29.46	3.89	15.19%
WAB	Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation	279.60	75.63	37.08%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Sep 12, 2026

ALSTOM UNSP AI Stock Analysis