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Akebia Therapeutics
(NASDAQ:AKBA)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$0.86
▼(-10.42% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/06/26
AKBA’s score is driven primarily by improving but still uneven financial performance (positive TTM cash flow but renewed operating losses, revenue decline, and a sensitive balance sheet). The latest earnings call adds support via strong Vafseo momentum and reiterated pipeline milestones, while valuation is constrained by losses (negative P/E) and technicals are broadly neutral with longer-term trend pressure.
Positive Factors
Vafseo Commercial Adoption
Rapid growth in Vafseo revenue, patient use and prescriber breadth indicates expanding market penetration. Approximately 86% first-refill adherence under observed dosing also supports durable treatment retention as adoption broadens across dialysis providers.
Negative Factors
Auryxia Generic Erosion
Auryxia remains the larger revenue contributor but is facing sustained pricing and volume pressure from authorized and additional generics. Continued erosion can offset Vafseo growth, weaken operating leverage and increase reliance on successful commercialization of newer products.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Vafseo Commercial Adoption
Rapid growth in Vafseo revenue, patient use and prescriber breadth indicates expanding market penetration. Approximately 86% first-refill adherence under observed dosing also supports durable treatment retention as adoption broadens across dialysis providers.
Read all positive factors
Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$265.58M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)4.79M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.62
Revenue Growth7.52%
EPS Growth35.69%
CountryUS
Employees194
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.11
Shares Outstanding277,106,230
10 Day Avg. Volume2,356,218
30 Day Avg. Volume4,794,768
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.83
Price to Book (P/B)12.70
Price to Sales (P/S)1.75
P/FCF Ratio6.09
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda>-0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$3.75Price Target Upside290.63% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.14
Revenue Forecast (FY)$202.09M
Akebia Therapeutics Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Akebia Therapeutics, Inc., established in 2007 and headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts, is a biopharmaceutical company focused on discovering and commercializing therapies for patients suffering from kidney diseases. The firm's leading exper...
How the Company Makes Money
Akebia primarily makes money through net product revenue from sales of Vafseo (vadadustat) in the United States. Under its commercialization strategy, Akebia sells the product and recognizes revenue from product shipments, net of customary deducti...
Akebia Therapeutics Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call highlights strong commercial momentum for Vafseo (32% revenue growth, ~60% patient growth quarter-over-quarter, higher prescriber engagement and improved adherence under observed dosing) and meaningful pipeline progress with supportive clinical data and upcoming readouts. However, legacy product Auryxia faces notable generic-driven revenue decline (≈-17%), the company swung to a net loss in the quarter, experienced sizable inventory write-downs and higher operating expenses, and cash declined q/q. While the launch and clinical developments are encouraging and provide a clear growth narrative, the near-term financial headwinds and competitive/enrollment risks temper the outlook.Positive Updates
Strong Vafseo Quarterly Revenue Growth
Vafseo net product revenues were $15.8M in Q1 2026 versus $12.0M in Q1 2025, a 32% year-over-year increase and the highest quarter of Vafseo revenue to date.
Negative Updates
Overall Revenue Decline
Total revenues were $53.5M in Q1 2026 versus $57.3M in Q1 2025, a decline of $3.8M or approximately -6.6% year-over-year, driven by lower Auryxia revenues despite higher Vafseo sales.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Vafseo Quarterly Revenue Growth
Vafseo net product revenues were $15.8M in Q1 2026 versus $12.0M in Q1 2025, a 32% year-over-year increase and the highest quarter of Vafseo revenue to date.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Akebia’s call guided to continued commercial and pipeline execution: Q1’26 total revenues were $53.5M with Vafseo net product revenue of $15.8M (highest quarter-to-date; +32% YoY from $12.0M) and Auryxia $36.2M (down from $43.8M), license/collab revenues $1.6M; Vafseo patients grew to nearly 7,500 (≈60% QoQ), ~1,025 prescribers (+28% vs Q4’25) with ~30% from non‑USRC dialysis organizations, ~2/3 of patients on 3x/week dosing and first‑refill adherence ≈86% (85–90% range); cash was $162.6M (vs $184.8M 12/31/25) and expected to fund operations ≥2 years; company expects TDAPA opportunity for the balance of 2026 and bundle entry planning for 2027, anticipates Auryxia revenues to decline in 2026, and reiterated pipeline milestones—VOCAL topline by year‑end 2026, VOICE early 2027, AKB‑9090 Phase I (up to 70 participants) topline early 2027, praliciguat Phase II targeting ~60 patients, and AKB‑097 Phase II basket to start H2’26 with initial data in 2027.Akebia Therapeutics Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
62
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 219.06M | 236.20M | 160.18M | 194.62M | 292.48M | 211.65M |
| Gross Profit | 174.10M | 196.73M | 97.00M | 120.47M | 269.99M | 130.16M |
| EBITDA | -18.01M | 21.73M | -13.72M | -8.27M | 3.06M | -189.91M |
| Net Income | -29.67M | -5.34M | -69.41M | -51.92M | -94.23M | -282.02M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 349.66M | 376.56M | 220.67M | 241.70M | 356.05M | 529.35M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 155.55M | 184.84M | 51.87M | 42.92M | 90.47M | 149.80M |
| Total Debt | 53.96M | 216.30M | 188.73M | 104.18M | 99.78M | 189.13M |
| Total Liabilities | 324.64M | 343.95M | 269.86M | 272.29M | 350.82M | 455.34M |
| Stockholders Equity | 25.02M | 32.61M | -49.19M | -30.58M | 5.23M | 74.01M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 40.23M | 67.99M | -40.69M | -23.38M | -73.27M | -253.02M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 41.55M | 67.99M | -40.66M | -23.38M | -73.15M | -252.97M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -12.10M | -7.93M | -33.00K | 0.00 | -114.00K | 39.94M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -11.20M | 72.93M | 49.66M | -25.21M | 14.60M | 133.73M |
Akebia Therapeutics Technical Analysis
Negative
0.96
Price Trends
1.14
Negative
1.17
Negative
1.32
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.08
Negative
38.95
Neutral
74.47
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AKBA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.96 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.00, below the 50-day MA of 1.14, and below the 200-day MA of 1.32, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 38.95 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.47 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AKBA.
Akebia Therapeutics Risk Analysis
Akebia Therapeutics disclosed 60 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Akebia Therapeutics reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Akebia Therapeutics Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $884.18M | 16.01 | 19.40% | ― | 35.11% | 331.61% | |
60 Neutral | $6.74B | -40.26 | -20.76% | ― | ― | 32.27% | |
56 Neutral | $1.81B | -5.99 | -29.99% | ― | 1495.93% | 53.66% | |
52 Neutral | $265.58M | -8.39 | -93.74% | ― | 7.52% | 35.69% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
45 Neutral | $523.02M | -3.05 | 8.83% | ― | 55.22% | 2.13% | |
40 Underperform | $1.55B | -8.46 | -50.26% | ― | ― | 8.22% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
AKBA
Akebia Therapeutics
0.91
-2.22
-71.05%
ORKA
Oruka Therapeutics
99.44
84.17
551.21%
TBPH
Theravance Biopharma
17.03
3.06
21.90%
VIR
Vir Biotechnology
11.08
6.04
119.84%
PROK
ProKidney
1.74
-0.76
-30.40%
AVBP
ArriVent BioPharma, Inc.
31.14
11.93
62.10%
Akebia Therapeutics Corporate Events
Business Operations and Strategy
Akebia Reports Positive Interim VOICE Trial Results
Positive
Jun 30, 2026
On June 30, 2026, Akebia Therapeutics and U.S. Renal Care reported interim results from the VOICE trial, a 2,116-patient, randomized, open-label study in in-center hemodialysis patients with CKD-related anemia. The trial evaluated the safety of Va...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Akebia Shareholders Approve Governance Measures and Share Increase
Positive
Jun 22, 2026
At its annual meeting of stockholders held on June 17, 2026, Akebia Therapeutics shareholders re-elected Adrian Adams, Michael Rogers and LeAnne M. Zumwalt as Class III directors, each to serve until the 2029 annual meeting, reinforcing continuity...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.