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Akebia Therapeutics
(NASDAQ:AKBA)
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Rating:51Neutral
Price Target:
$0.81
▼(-16.15% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/07/26
Overall score reflects improving but still inconsistent fundamentals: positive TTM operating and free cash flow and strong gross margins are key supports, but ongoing TTM losses, recent revenue decline, and a still-sensitive balance sheet temper confidence. Technicals add pressure (below major moving averages with negative MACD), while corporate events provide a meaningful offset via strong interim VOICE trial results. Valuation contributes little given negative earnings and no dividend.
Positive Factors
Strong Gross Margin
A gross margin near 79% suggests Vafseo and the broader product portfolio have strong product-level economics. This provides room to support commercial investment and pipeline development, and could help profitability recover if revenue stabilizes and operating costs are controlled.
Negative Factors
Ongoing Losses and Revenue Decline
Akebia remains loss-making despite strong gross profitability, while the latest trailing period shows revenue contraction and a return to negative EBIT and EBITDA. This indicates that commercial economics have not yet translated into durable company-wide profitability and earnings remain vulnerable to further top-line pressure.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong Gross Margin
A gross margin near 79% suggests Vafseo and the broader product portfolio have strong product-level economics. This provides room to support commercial investment and pipeline development, and could help profitability recover if revenue stabilizes and operating costs are controlled.
Read all positive factors
Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$218.97M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)6.96M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.47
Revenue Growth7.52%
EPS Growth35.69%
CountryUS
Employees194
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.11
Shares Outstanding277,106,230
10 Day Avg. Volume6,568,507
30 Day Avg. Volume6,962,823
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.83
Price to Book (P/B)12.70
Price to Sales (P/S)1.75
P/FCF Ratio6.09
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.65
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.65
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.07
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-19.68
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$3.90Price Target Upside306.25% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.14
Revenue Forecast (FY)$196.84M
Akebia Therapeutics Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Akebia Therapeutics, Inc., established in 2007 and headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts, is a biopharmaceutical company focused on discovering and commercializing therapies for patients suffering from kidney diseases. The firm's leading exper...
Akebia Therapeutics Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call highlights strong commercial momentum for Vafseo (32% revenue growth, ~60% patient growth quarter-over-quarter, higher prescriber engagement and improved adherence under observed dosing) and meaningful pipeline progress with supportive clinical data and upcoming readouts. However, legacy product Auryxia faces notable generic-driven revenue decline (≈-17%), the company swung to a net loss in the quarter, experienced sizable inventory write-downs and higher operating expenses, and cash declined q/q. While the launch and clinical developments are encouraging and provide a clear growth narrative, the near-term financial headwinds and competitive/enrollment risks temper the outlook.Positive Updates
Strong Vafseo Quarterly Revenue Growth
Vafseo net product revenues were $15.8M in Q1 2026 versus $12.0M in Q1 2025, a 32% year-over-year increase and the highest quarter of Vafseo revenue to date.
Negative Updates
Overall Revenue Decline
Total revenues were $53.5M in Q1 2026 versus $57.3M in Q1 2025, a decline of $3.8M or approximately -6.6% year-over-year, driven by lower Auryxia revenues despite higher Vafseo sales.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Vafseo Quarterly Revenue Growth
Vafseo net product revenues were $15.8M in Q1 2026 versus $12.0M in Q1 2025, a 32% year-over-year increase and the highest quarter of Vafseo revenue to date.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Akebia’s call guided to continued commercial and pipeline execution: Q1’26 total revenues were $53.5M with Vafseo net product revenue of $15.8M (highest quarter-to-date; +32% YoY from $12.0M) and Auryxia $36.2M (down from $43.8M), license/collab revenues $1.6M; Vafseo patients grew to nearly 7,500 (≈60% QoQ), ~1,025 prescribers (+28% vs Q4’25) with ~30% from non‑USRC dialysis organizations, ~2/3 of patients on 3x/week dosing and first‑refill adherence ≈86% (85–90% range); cash was $162.6M (vs $184.8M 12/31/25) and expected to fund operations ≥2 years; company expects TDAPA opportunity for the balance of 2026 and bundle entry planning for 2027, anticipates Auryxia revenues to decline in 2026, and reiterated pipeline milestones—VOCAL topline by year‑end 2026, VOICE early 2027, AKB‑9090 Phase I (up to 70 participants) topline early 2027, praliciguat Phase II targeting ~60 patients, and AKB‑097 Phase II basket to start H2’26 with initial data in 2027.Akebia Therapeutics Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
62
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 219.06M | 236.20M | 160.18M | 194.62M | 292.48M | 211.65M |
| Gross Profit | 174.10M | 196.73M | 97.00M | 120.47M | 269.99M | 130.16M |
| EBITDA | -18.34M | 21.73M | -13.72M | -8.27M | 3.06M | -189.91M |
| Net Income | -29.67M | -5.34M | -69.41M | -51.92M | -94.23M | -282.02M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 349.66M | 376.56M | 220.67M | 241.70M | 356.05M | 529.35M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 155.55M | 184.84M | 51.87M | 42.92M | 90.47M | 149.80M |
| Total Debt | 53.96M | 216.30M | 188.73M | 104.18M | 99.78M | 189.13M |
| Total Liabilities | 324.64M | 343.95M | 269.86M | 272.29M | 350.82M | 455.34M |
| Stockholders Equity | 25.02M | 32.61M | -49.19M | -30.58M | 5.23M | 74.01M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 40.23M | 67.99M | -40.69M | -23.38M | -73.27M | -253.02M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 41.55M | 67.99M | -40.66M | -23.38M | -73.15M | -252.97M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -12.10M | -7.93M | -33.00K | 0.00 | -114.00K | 39.94M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -11.20M | 72.93M | 49.66M | -25.21M | 14.60M | 133.73M |
Akebia Therapeutics Technical Analysis
Negative
0.96
Price Trends
0.93
Negative
1.04
Negative
1.21
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.04
Positive
34.53
Neutral
2.56
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AKBA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.96 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.89, above the 50-day MA of 0.93, and below the 200-day MA of 1.21, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.53 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 2.56 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AKBA.
Akebia Therapeutics Risk Analysis
Akebia Therapeutics disclosed 60 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Akebia Therapeutics reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Akebia Therapeutics Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $223.99M | 11.54 | 31.61% | ― | 30.14% | 181.54% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
51 Neutral | $218.97M | -7.32 | -93.74% | ― | 7.52% | 35.69% | |
49 Neutral | $104.67M | -2.79 | -129.93% | ― | 306.42% | 70.84% | |
46 Neutral | $112.81M | -2.42 | -88.81% | ― | ― | 43.63% | |
45 Neutral | $95.11M | -5.85 | -41.15% | ― | -100.00% | 64.23% | |
42 Neutral | $198.28M | -2.46 | -136.45% | ― | ― | -1475.42% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.