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Agios Pharma
(NASDAQ:AGIO)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$31.00
▼(-8.55% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/18/26
AGIO scores as a mid-range risk/reward setup. The biggest constraint is financial performance—large ongoing losses and substantial cash burn despite strong revenue growth—partly offset by a very solid, low-leverage balance sheet. The latest earnings call improves the outlook with clear commercial momentum and a near-term PDUFA catalyst, while technicals and valuation (negative P/E, no dividend data) provide limited additional support.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth and Gross Margin
Strong revenue growth alongside an approximately 82% gross margin indicates improving product and royalty economics. If commercial adoption continues, this combination can provide meaningful operating leverage and support a more durable earnings base as the business scales.
Negative Factors
Persistent Cash Burn
Heavy operating and free cash outflows show that Agios is not yet funding its activities from internally generated cash. Continued burn could require sustained use of its capital base until commercial growth and operating leverage materially reduce losses.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue Growth and Gross Margin
Strong revenue growth alongside an approximately 82% gross margin indicates improving product and royalty economics. If commercial adoption continues, this combination can provide meaningful operating leverage and support a more durable earnings base as the business scales.
Read all positive factors
Agios Pharma (AGIO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.80B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)964.86K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.88
Revenue Growth140.58%
EPS Growth-161.11%
CountryUS
Employees540
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-7.01
Shares Outstanding59,701,880
10 Day Avg. Volume1,110,593
30 Day Avg. Volume964,862
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.02
Price to Book (P/B)1.32
Price to Sales (P/S)29.21
P/FCF Ratio-4.18
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.90
Enterprise Value/Revenue16.49
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit18.75
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-3.89
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$43.00Price Target Upside26.84% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)-5.75
Revenue Forecast (FY)$178.00M
Agios Pharma Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical firm dedicated to the research and advancement of new treatments, specifically targeting cellular metabolism and related biological fields. The company's offerings include PYRUKYND (mitapivat), a ...
How the Company Makes Money
Agios makes money primarily through (1) net product revenue from sales of its approved medicines and (2) collaboration and license-related income (such as upfront payments, milestone payments, and royalties) from partners, when applicable. Product...
Agios Pharma Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated substantial commercial momentum (AQVESME launch traction and U.S.-centric revenue), a meaningful near-term regulatory catalyst (Mitapivat PDUFA on Nov 1), and active pipeline expansion (cevidoplenib, AG-236, AG-181), supported by a strong cash position (~$1B). Offsetting these positives are elevated R&D and SG&A spending, a sizable net loss ($100.7M), quarter-to-quarter revenue variability (including a one-time $5M stocking benefit in Q2), and potential pricing/net revenue pressures for a sickle cell indication due to higher Medicaid mix and rebates. On balance, the operational and pipeline progress and the regulatory catalyst outweigh the financial and visibility challenges.Positive Updates
Strong Quarterly Revenue and U.S. Commercial Performance
Total net revenue of $44.7M in Q2 2026, comprised of $40.9M (91.5%) in the U.S. and $3.8M (8.5%) outside the U.S.; revenue benefited from ongoing AQVESME launch momentum.
Negative Updates
High R&D and SG&A Spend
Research & development expense rose to $100.8M from $91.9M in Q2 2025 (increase of $8.9M, ≈9.7%), and selling, general & administrative expense increased to $51.5M from $45.9M (increase of $5.6M, ≈12.2%), reflecting elevated launch and development investment.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Quarterly Revenue and U.S. Commercial Performance
Total net revenue of $44.7M in Q2 2026, comprised of $40.9M (91.5%) in the U.S. and $3.8M (8.5%) outside the U.S.; revenue benefited from ongoing AQVESME launch momentum.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Agios reiterated concrete 2026 targets and near‑term operational plans: Q2 Mitapivat net revenue was $44.7M (U.S. $40.9M; ex‑U.S. $3.8M), cost of sales $3M, R&D $100.8M (vs. $91.9M y/y, reflecting a ~$25M upfront in‑licensing payment), SG&A $51.5M and a net loss of $100.7M, with approximately $1.0B in cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities at quarter end. For 2026 the company expects roughly $45–50M of U.S. PK deficiency revenue, full‑year operating expenses to be approximately flat versus 2025 excluding the $25M upfront payment, and gross‑to‑net of ~10–20% (quarter‑to‑quarter variability). Commercial metrics and launch guidance include 442 cumulative AQVESME prescriptions as of June 30 (up ~200 in Q2), ~75% thalassemia lives covered by payer policies, time‑to‑start trending toward a 10–12 week range, and Q2 revenue including an estimated ~$5M one‑time stocking benefit; Agios is targeting an initial ~25,000 patient sickle cell population and is preparing for a Nov. 1 PDUFA (Mitapivat sNDA, priority review). Pipeline and operational guidance: AG‑236 moving into a seamless Phase II/III program with Phase II starts planned H2 2026, cevidoplenib in‑licensed with the upfront recognized in Q2 and progression toward Phase III planned, REIGNITE Phase III dosing underway, and AG‑181 PKU Phase Ib proof‑of‑mechanism data expected in H2 2026.Agios Pharma Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
28
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 98.34M | 54.03M | 36.50M | 26.82M | 14.24M | 0.00 |
| Gross Profit | 86.46M | 42.51M | 32.33M | 17.32M | 12.54M | -18.78M |
| EBITDA | -416.80M | -408.62M | 723.62M | -345.46M | -223.24M | -347.27M |
| Net Income | -411.29M | -412.78M | 673.73M | -352.09M | -231.80M | 1.60B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.11B | 1.30B | 1.66B | 937.12M | 1.24B | 1.44B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 617.58M | 854.42M | 893.71M | 776.93M | 783.12M | 1.02B |
| Total Debt | 31.17M | 40.21M | 56.99M | 72.00M | 85.66M | 97.09M |
| Total Liabilities | 82.40M | 104.11M | 122.24M | 126.10M | 137.90M | 145.76M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.03B | 1.19B | 1.54B | 811.02M | 1.10B | 1.29B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -365.25M | -377.29M | -391.53M | -297.06M | -314.36M | -413.06M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -360.60M | -372.98M | -389.84M | -296.06M | -309.48M | -407.32M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 367.15M | 377.18M | 363.44M | 239.57M | 243.26M | 1.25B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 12.22M | 8.68M | 14.44M | 5.43M | 2.35M | -765.77M |
Agios Pharma Technical Analysis
Negative
33.90
Price Trends
33.06
Negative
33.68
Negative
31.23
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.73
Positive
39.84
Neutral
16.10
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AGIO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 33.9 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 32.50, above the 50-day MA of 33.06, and above the 200-day MA of 31.23, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.73 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.84 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.10 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AGIO.
Agios Pharma Risk Analysis
Agios Pharma disclosed 54 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Agios Pharma reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Agios Pharma Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
64 Neutral | $6.57B | -19.47 | -40.51% | ― | 34.52% | 41.20% | |
58 Neutral | $1.67B | -3.40 | -57.79% | ― | 12.58% | 28.42% | |
57 Neutral | $2.30B | 9.43 | 49.34% | ― | 738.76% | ― | |
55 Neutral | $1.80B | -4.42 | -35.67% | ― | 140.58% | -161.11% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
49 Neutral | $1.47B | -2.55 | 392.35% | ― | 17.50% | -5.66% | |
45 Neutral | $2.52B | -28.84 | -7.70% | 4.80% | 158.88% | 81.95% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
AGIO
Agios Pharma
30.97
-10.41
-25.16%
RARE
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical
14.90
-18.53
-55.43%
IOVA
Iovance Biotherapeutics
14.21
11.97
534.38%
NTLA
Intellia Therapeutics
11.43
-14.50
-55.92%
BEAM
Beam Therapeutics
23.65
-3.54
-13.02%
NRIX
Nurix Therapeutics
23.67
13.32
128.70%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.