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Agios Pharma (AGIO)
NASDAQ:AGIO
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Agios Pharma (AGIO) AI Stock Analysis

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AGIO

Agios Pharma

(NASDAQ:AGIO)

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Neutral 55 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$34.00
▲(0.29% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/18/26
AGIO scores as a mid-range risk/reward setup. The biggest constraint is financial performance—large ongoing losses and substantial cash burn despite strong revenue growth—partly offset by a very solid, low-leverage balance sheet. The latest earnings call improves the outlook with clear commercial momentum and a near-term PDUFA catalyst, while technicals and valuation (negative P/E, no dividend data) provide limited additional support.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth and Gross Margin
Strong revenue growth and an approximately 82% gross margin indicate increasing commercial adoption and attractive product economics. If sustained, these trends can provide operating leverage as PYRUKYND sales expand and newer indications contribute.
Negative Factors
Deep Losses and Cash Burn
Large recurring losses and negative operating and free cash flow show that commercial revenue has not yet funded the research, launch and corporate cost base. Continued burn may require additional financing if operating leverage does not improve.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue Growth and Gross Margin
Strong revenue growth and an approximately 82% gross margin indicate increasing commercial adoption and attractive product economics. If sustained, these trends can provide operating leverage as PYRUKYND sales expand and newer indications contribute.
Read all positive factors

Agios Pharma (AGIO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Agios Pharma Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description
Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical firm dedicated to the research and advancement of new treatments, specifically targeting cellular metabolism and related biological fields. The company's offerings include PYRUKYND (mitapivat), a ...
How the Company Makes Money
Agios primarily makes money through (1) product sales from its commercialized therapies and (2) collaboration-related revenue. Product revenue is generated by selling PYRUKYND and TIBSOVO through specialty distribution channels; revenue depends on...

Agios Pharma Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2026
(Q2-2026)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated substantial commercial momentum (AQVESME launch traction and U.S.-centric revenue), a meaningful near-term regulatory catalyst (Mitapivat PDUFA on Nov 1), and active pipeline expansion (cevidoplenib, AG-236, AG-181), supported by a strong cash position (~$1B). Offsetting these positives are elevated R&D and SG&A spending, a sizable net loss ($100.7M), quarter-to-quarter revenue variability (including a one-time $5M stocking benefit in Q2), and potential pricing/net revenue pressures for a sickle cell indication due to higher Medicaid mix and rebates. On balance, the operational and pipeline progress and the regulatory catalyst outweigh the financial and visibility challenges.
Positive Updates
Strong Quarterly Revenue and U.S. Commercial Performance
Total net revenue of $44.7M in Q2 2026, comprised of $40.9M (91.5%) in the U.S. and $3.8M (8.5%) outside the U.S.; revenue benefited from ongoing AQVESME launch momentum.
Negative Updates
High R&D and SG&A Spend
Research & development expense rose to $100.8M from $91.9M in Q2 2025 (increase of $8.9M, ≈9.7%), and selling, general & administrative expense increased to $51.5M from $45.9M (increase of $5.6M, ≈12.2%), reflecting elevated launch and development investment.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Negative
Strong Quarterly Revenue and U.S. Commercial Performance
Total net revenue of $44.7M in Q2 2026, comprised of $40.9M (91.5%) in the U.S. and $3.8M (8.5%) outside the U.S.; revenue benefited from ongoing AQVESME launch momentum.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Agios reiterated concrete 2026 targets and near‑term operational plans: Q2 Mitapivat net revenue was $44.7M (U.S. $40.9M; ex‑U.S. $3.8M), cost of sales $3M, R&D $100.8M (vs. $91.9M y/y, reflecting a ~$25M upfront in‑licensing payment), SG&A $51.5M and a net loss of $100.7M, with approximately $1.0B in cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities at quarter end. For 2026 the company expects roughly $45–50M of U.S. PK deficiency revenue, full‑year operating expenses to be approximately flat versus 2025 excluding the $25M upfront payment, and gross‑to‑net of ~10–20% (quarter‑to‑quarter variability). Commercial metrics and launch guidance include 442 cumulative AQVESME prescriptions as of June 30 (up ~200 in Q2), ~75% thalassemia lives covered by payer policies, time‑to‑start trending toward a 10–12 week range, and Q2 revenue including an estimated ~$5M one‑time stocking benefit; Agios is targeting an initial ~25,000 patient sickle cell population and is preparing for a Nov. 1 PDUFA (Mitapivat sNDA, priority review). Pipeline and operational guidance: AG‑236 moving into a seamless Phase II/III program with Phase II starts planned H2 2026, cevidoplenib in‑licensed with the upfront recognized in Q2 and progression toward Phase III planned, REIGNITE Phase III dosing underway, and AG‑181 PKU Phase Ib proof‑of‑mechanism data expected in H2 2026.

Agios Pharma Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Mixed fundamentals: strong TTM revenue growth (+48.9%) and healthy gross margin (~82%), supported by a low-leverage balance sheet (~$31M debt vs ~$1.03B equity). Offsetting this, profitability and cash generation are very weak (TTM net loss ~$411M; operating cash flow about -$369M; free cash flow about -$374M), implying ongoing funding needs until operating leverage improves.
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
28
Negative
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue98.34M54.03M36.50M26.82M14.24M0.00
Gross Profit86.46M42.51M32.33M17.32M12.54M-18.78M
EBITDA-416.80M-408.62M723.62M-345.46M-223.24M-337.73M
Net Income-411.29M-412.78M673.73M-352.09M-231.80M1.60B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.11B1.30B1.66B937.12M1.24B1.44B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments617.58M854.42M893.71M776.93M783.12M1.02B
Total Debt31.17M40.21M56.99M72.00M85.66M97.09M
Total Liabilities82.40M104.11M122.24M126.10M137.90M145.76M
Stockholders Equity1.03B1.19B1.54B811.02M1.10B1.29B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-365.25M-377.29M-391.53M-297.06M-314.36M-413.06M
Operating Cash Flow-360.60M-372.98M-389.84M-296.06M-309.48M-407.32M
Investing Cash Flow367.15M377.18M363.44M239.57M243.26M1.25B
Financing Cash Flow12.22M8.68M14.44M5.43M2.35M-765.77M

Agios Pharma Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price33.90
Price Trends
50DMA
35.77
Negative
100DMA
32.45
Positive
200DMA
30.83
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.39
Negative
RSI
49.69
Neutral
STOCH
30.74
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AGIO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 33.9 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 32.89, below the 50-day MA of 35.77, and above the 200-day MA of 30.83, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.39 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.69 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 30.74 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AGIO.

Agios Pharma Risk Analysis

Agios Pharma disclosed 54 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Agios Pharma reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Agios Pharma Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
59
Neutral
$2.80B-7.74-76.09%-58.40%-31.99%
57
Neutral
$3.82B-11.54-40.51%34.52%41.20%
55
Neutral
$2.02B-4.85-35.67%140.58%-161.11%
54
Neutral
$1.89B-3.93-57.79%12.58%28.42%
51
Neutral
$7.86B-0.30-43.30%2.27%22.53%-2.21%
48
Neutral
$2.61B-4.53392.35%17.50%-5.66%
44
Neutral
$3.21B-36.82-7.70%158.88%81.95%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AGIO
Agios Pharma
33.99
-4.19
-10.97%
RARE
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical
26.44
-3.86
-12.74%
IOVA
Iovance Biotherapeutics
8.08
5.85
262.33%
NTLA
Intellia Therapeutics
13.19
1.59
13.71%
BEAM
Beam Therapeutics
30.19
13.34
79.17%
NRIX
Nurix Therapeutics
26.71
17.30
183.85%

Agios Pharma Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Agios Pharma Shareholders Expand Equity Plan, Reelect Directors
Positive
Jun 18, 2026
At its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders held on June 18, 2026, Agios Pharmaceuticals’ shareholders approved an amendment to the company’s 2023 Stock Incentive Plan, adding 2,000,000 shares of common stock available for issuance, inc...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 18, 2026