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Accel Entertainment
(NYSE:ACEL)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$11.50
▼(-2.62% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/07/26
ACEL scores as a moderately attractive setup primarily due to strong and improving cash flow alongside sustained revenue growth, partially offset by thin net margins and a leverage-tilted balance sheet. Technicals are currently a headwind (below key moving averages with a negative MACD), while valuation is reasonable at ~17.5x earnings. Recent corporate events are supportive (record quarter, expansion, buybacks, and governance/leadership updates), adding a modest positive tilt.
Positive Factors
Sustained Revenue Growth
The multi-year revenue increase indicates continued expansion of Accel’s operating base and customer activity rather than reliance on a single quarter. Sustained top-line growth can support recurring reinvestment in terminals, locations, technology, and acquisitions over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Thin Net Margins
Although Accel remains profitable, the lower net margin indicates that revenue growth is not translating into earnings at its earlier rate. Persistently thinner profitability could limit internal capital available for expansion and make results more sensitive to operating costs, taxes, and other financial pressures.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Sustained Revenue Growth
The multi-year revenue increase indicates continued expansion of Accel’s operating base and customer activity rather than reliance on a single quarter. Sustained top-line growth can support recurring reinvestment in terminals, locations, technology, and acquisitions over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Accel Entertainment (ACEL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$893.13M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)336.36K
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.2
Beta (1Y)0.84
Revenue Growth8.70%
EPS Growth65.14%
CountryUS
Employees1,600
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryGambling, Resorts & Casinos
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.68
Shares Outstanding81,193,474
10 Day Avg. Volume426,462
30 Day Avg. Volume336,355
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.41
Price to Book (P/B)3.60
Price to Sales (P/S)0.73
P/FCF Ratio15.66
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.55
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.00
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.14
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.78
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$15.00Price Target Upside27.01% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)0.69
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.44B
Accel Entertainment Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Accel Entertainment, Inc., in conjunction with its subsidiary entities, functions as a leading distributed gaming operator across the United States. The company's primary activities involve the installation, upkeep, and operation of gaming termina...
How the Company Makes Money
Accel Entertainment makes money primarily through distributed gaming (route operations) in which it places and operates gaming terminals (e.g., video gaming terminals and other regulated amusement devices) at third-party host locations. Revenue is...
Accel Entertainment Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a broadly positive operational and financial performance: record quarterly revenue, 9% adjusted EBITDA growth, strong outperformance in developing markets (notably Nebraska and Georgia), completed TITO rollout in Illinois, accretive acquisitions/partnerships in Nevada, continued share repurchases, and a solid liquidity position (cash of $274M and undrawn $300M revolver). Key near-term challenges include flat net income/EPS (impacted by D&A and purse accrual timing), early-stage TITO adoption and mixed near-term cash effects, regulatory and legislative uncertainties (Chicago market timing and contested rules), and ongoing evaluation of Fairmont Park’s permanent plans. Overall, positive operational momentum and balance sheet flexibility outweigh the manageable execution and timing headwinds.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Revenue
Total Q1 2026 revenue increased 9% year-over-year to $352 million, marking the company’s highest-ever quarterly revenue on record.
Negative Updates
Flat Net Income and EPS
Net income was $15 million (flat YoY) and diluted EPS was $0.17, unchanged from Q1 2025, as higher operating income was offset by increased depreciation/amortization and timing of purse expense.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Revenue
Total Q1 2026 revenue increased 9% year-over-year to $352 million, marking the company’s highest-ever quarterly revenue on record.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company’s guidance and near-term expectations emphasized disciplined capital allocation and growing free cash flow: Q1 results set a strong baseline with revenue $352M (+9% YoY), net gaming revenue $331M (+10%), adjusted EBITDA $54M (+9%), operating cash flow $43M, free cash flow $20M (38% cash conversion), and diluted EPS $0.17; the business ended the quarter with 4,540 locations and 28,353 terminals (up 3% and 4% YoY), $274M cash, $581M total debt (net debt ≈ $306M) and net leverage ≈ 1.4x, while the $300M revolver remains undrawn. Full-year CapEx is guided to $60–70M (Q1 CapEx $23M; 2025 CapEx ≈ $89M), with most spending maintenance-oriented and growth capital concentrated in developing markets; management expects free cash flow to grow as CapEx normalizes and developing markets scale. Capital return and liquidity metrics: ~1.1M shares repurchased for $12M YTD 2026 (18.7M shares / ~$195.6M repurchased since Nov 2021; ~$151.2M remaining authorization), and a new interest-rate collar (cap 4%, floor 2.92%) in place through Sep 2029. Operationally, management expects TITO benefits to build through the remainder of 2026 (early adoption ≈13%, internal upside to ~20%), sees Chicago VGTs potentially going live late 2026–2027, and highlighted strong developing-market growth (Nebraska revenue +57% / hold per day +57%; Georgia revenue +43% / hold per day +14%; Nevada locations +27% / terminals +28%; Louisiana revenue +12%), plus a $0.5M purse increase at Fairmont Park tied to live table game rollouts.Accel Entertainment Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.39B | 1.33B | 1.23B | 1.17B | 969.80M | 734.71M |
| Gross Profit | 442.66M | 422.84M | 371.50M | 353.23M | 298.90M | 240.68M |
| EBITDA | 204.81M | 187.22M | 156.18M | 157.99M | 163.18M | 105.95M |
| Net Income | 56.68M | 51.47M | 35.25M | 45.60M | 74.10M | 31.56M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.10B | 1.13B | 1.05B | 912.89M | 862.77M | 616.07M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 255.45M | 296.57M | 281.31M | 261.61M | 256.18M | 230.85M |
| Total Debt | 573.33M | 629.35M | 595.38M | 542.57M | 542.03M | 341.52M |
| Total Liabilities | 809.05M | 852.80M | 789.09M | 714.49M | 684.18M | 457.61M |
| Stockholders Equity | 283.86M | 269.68M | 255.03M | 198.40M | 178.59M | 158.46M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 167.86M | 61.95M | 54.65M | 50.79M | 60.62M | 81.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 149.03M | 150.88M | 121.19M | 132.53M | 108.00M | 110.75M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -87.80M | -100.55M | -124.15M | -59.79M | -189.26M | -34.54M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -70.41M | -35.06M | 22.65M | -35.24M | 106.59M | -11.88M |
Accel Entertainment Technical Analysis
Negative
11.81
Price Trends
11.62
Negative
12.02
Negative
11.74
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.20
Negative
42.10
Neutral
75.60
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ACEL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 11.81 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.08, above the 50-day MA of 11.62, and above the 200-day MA of 11.74, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.20 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 42.10 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.60 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ACEL.
Accel Entertainment Risk Analysis
Accel Entertainment disclosed 29 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Accel Entertainment reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Accel Entertainment Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $893.13M | 16.18 | 20.74% | ― | 8.70% | 65.14% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
52 Neutral | $2.08B | -2.44 | -48.48% | 5.71% | 6.14% | -1168.84% | |
52 Neutral | $703.55M | -1.14 | -103.53% | 1.31% | 20.38% | -24.51% | |
50 Neutral | $98.84M | -11.84 | 70.68% | ― | -6.73% | -114.46% | |
46 Neutral | $44.34M | -1.19 | 7622.52% | ― | 2.76% | 11.27% | |
45 Neutral | $24.14M | -0.44 | 53.66% | ― | 1.08% | 54.98% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
ACEL
Accel Entertainment
11.17
0.67
6.38%
CNTY
Century Casinos
0.84
-1.58
-65.33%
FLL
Full House Resorts
1.18
-1.36
-53.54%
PENN
PENN Entertainment
15.40
-1.34
-8.00%
INSE
Inspired Entertainment
3.76
-4.26
-53.12%
BALY
Bally's Corporation
13.99
1.93
16.00%
Accel Entertainment Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Accel Entertainment CEO Joins Board, Expanding Leadership
Positive
Aug 11, 2026
On August 7, 2026, Accel Entertainment’s board appointed Chief Executive Officer Mark Phelan as a 2027 Class director, expanding the board from nine to ten members and setting his term to expire at the 2027 annual meeting of stockholders. Ph...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesStock BuybackFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Accel Entertainment Reports Record Quarterly Revenue and Expansion
Positive
Aug 4, 2026
Accel Entertainment reported a quarterly record revenue of $368 million for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026, up 10% year over year, with net income rising 72% to $13 million despite losses tied to contingent earnout shares and asset sales. ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Accel Entertainment Reshapes Executive Leadership Team Structure
Positive
Jul 15, 2026
On July 14, 2026, Accel Entertainment announced significant management changes, promoting Toucan Gaming CEO Stan Guidroz to Chief Operating Officer effective that day while current President and COO Mark Phelan relinquishes the COO title ahead of ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Accel Entertainment Launches 2026 Executive Incentive Programs
Positive
Jul 13, 2026
On July 11, 2026, Accel Entertainment’s board compensation committee approved its 2026 Long Term Incentive Program for named executive officers, splitting target awards between time-based restricted stock units and performance-based stock un...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.