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Accel Entertainment (ACEL)
NYSE:ACEL
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Accel Entertainment
(NYSE:ACEL)
Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
$12.50
▲( 10.23% Upside)
Accel Entertainment (ACEL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$969.99M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)510.41K
Price to Earnings (P/E)22.9
Beta (1Y)0.80
Revenue Growth6.28%
EPS Growth-1.99%
CountryUS
Employees1,500
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength74
IndustryGambling, Resorts & Casinos
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.23
Shares Outstanding84,641,290
10 Day Avg. Volume403,999
30 Day Avg. Volume510,414
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.23
Price to Book (P/B)3.84
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio15.17
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$15.00Price Target Upside32.28% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
Accel Entertainment Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAccel Entertainment (ACEL) is a leading distributed gaming operator in the United States, primarily focused on the video gaming terminal (VGT) industry. The company partners with local businesses, such as bars, restaurants, and convenience stores, to provide gaming solutions that include VGTs, which offer patrons a variety of electronic games. Accel Entertainment is committed to delivering high-quality gaming experiences and comprehensive support services to its partners, enhancing revenue opportunities for small business owners.
How the Company Makes MoneyAccel Entertainment makes money through a revenue-sharing model with its partner establishments where video gaming terminals (VGTs) are installed. These VGTs generate income from players, and the revenue is split between Accel, the partnering venue, and the state or local government. The company earns a percentage of the net terminal income, which is the total amount wagered minus the winnings paid out to players. Accel also benefits from economies of scale by managing a large network of gaming terminals, which helps optimize operational efficiencies and maximize profitability. Additionally, Accel Entertainment's growth is supported by strategic partnerships and agreements with various establishments, expanding its footprint in the distributed gaming market.
Accel Entertainment Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Accel Entertainment demonstrates strong financial health with consistent revenue and profit growth, improving leverage metrics, and robust cash flow generation. While the balance sheet could benefit from higher equity levels, the company maintains a solid financial footing with efficient operations and cash management.Income Statement
Accel Entertainment shows strong revenue growth and improved profitability. The TTM revenue growth rate of 1.79% and consistent gross profit margin near 32% suggest stable operations. The net profit margin also improved to 3.39% in TTM, indicating better cost management.85
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reflects moderate leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.13 in TTM, down from previous years, which is favorable. However, the equity ratio stands at 24.74%, reflecting a decent but not high level of equity cushioning. ROE improved to 16.39% in TTM, showing efficient use of equity capital.70
Positive
Cash Flow
Free cash flow growth was robust at 18.05% in TTM, indicating strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 3.23 in TTM suggests efficient cash conversion from profits. Free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.52, affirming solid cash retention.80
Positive
| Breakdown | |||||
| TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | ||||
| 1.25B | 1.23B | 1.17B | 969.80M | 734.71M | 316.35M | Gross Profit |
| 405.42M | 378.60M | 353.23M | 298.90M | 240.68M | 105.27M | EBIT |
| 91.28M | 90.88M | 107.41M | 96.86M | 70.19M | -24.68M | EBITDA |
| 134.86M | 133.56M | 157.99M | 163.18M | 105.95M | 39.96M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 42.48M | 35.25M | 45.60M | 74.10M | 31.56M | -12.98M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | ||||
| 136.40M | 281.31M | 261.61M | 256.18M | 230.85M | 134.45M | Total Assets |
| 509.32M | 1.05B | 912.89M | 862.77M | 616.07M | 560.24M | Total Debt |
| 349.69M | 595.38M | 542.57M | 542.03M | 341.52M | 340.14M | Net Debt |
| 224.29M | 314.07M | 280.96M | 317.92M | 142.74M | 205.69M | Total Liabilities |
| 423.79M | 789.09M | 714.49M | 684.18M | 457.61M | 432.36M | Stockholders Equity |
| 85.53M | 255.03M | 198.40M | 178.59M | 158.46M | 127.88M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | ||||
| 64.53M | 54.65M | 50.79M | 60.62M | 81.00M | -29.47M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 137.20M | 121.19M | 132.53M | 108.00M | 110.75M | -3.71M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -124.44M | -124.15M | -59.79M | -189.26M | -34.54M | -61.44M | Financing Cash Flow |
| 5.26M | 22.65M | -35.24M | 106.59M | -11.88M | 74.19M |
Accel Entertainment Technical Analysis
Positive
11.34
Price Trends
10.67
Positive
10.90
Positive
11.16
Positive
Market Momentum
0.24
Positive
53.09
Neutral
40.12
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ACEL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 11.34 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.25, above the 50-day MA of 10.67, and above the 200-day MA of 11.16, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.24 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 53.09 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.12 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ACEL.
Accel Entertainment Risk Analysis
Accel Entertainment disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Accel Entertainment reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 2 New Risks
1.
Our distributed gaming industry operations are located in markets where terminal revenue splits are either statutorily determined or negotiated. For our markets with negotiated splits, our revenue could be impacted by contract negotiations and our revenue in markets with statutory splits could decline if such jurisdictions move towards negotiated splits or reduce our statutory split. Q4, 2024
2.
Our expansion into casino operations and horse racing may not be successful. Q4, 2024
Accel Entertainment Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $969.99M | 22.89 | 18.42% | ― | 6.28% | -1.99% | |
76 Outperform | $1.53B | 16.28 | 18.31% | 1.45% | 3.84% | 19.95% | |
73 Outperform | $505.95M | 10.62 | 49.64% | ― | 6.60% | 778.46% | |
62 Neutral | $1.22B | 86.86 | 5.81% | ― | -6.41% | -75.66% | |
62 Neutral | $6.97B | 11.36 | 2.77% | 3.91% | 2.66% | -22.00% | |
58 Neutral | $752.61M | 72.79 | 2.18% | 3.51% | -31.14% | -95.88% | |
47 Neutral | $741.76M | ― | -65.87% | ― | -1.93% | 15.16% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
ACEL
Accel Entertainment
11.30
1.49
15.19%
EVRI
Everi Holdings
14.08
6.87
95.28%
MCRI
Monarch Casino & Resort
81.00
16.58
25.74%
GDEN
Golden Entertainment
27.52
-0.29
-1.04%
AGS
Playags
12.22
0.64
5.53%
BALY
Bally's Corporation
10.55
-11.52
-52.20%
Accel Entertainment Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: 5.49%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call for Accel Entertainment highlighted significant achievements, such as record revenue and successful expansions, despite facing some challenges like a revenue decline in Nevada and a key leadership change. The company's strong performance in various markets and successful integration of acquisitions suggest a positive outlook.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record-Breaking Quarterly Revenue
Accel Entertainment reported total revenue of $344 million for Q1 2025, marking its highest quarterly revenue since going public. This represents a 7% year-over-year growth.
Strong Adjusted EBITDA Growth
The company achieved an adjusted EBITDA of $50 million, reflecting a 7% year-over-year increase.
Successful Fairmount Park Casino Opening
Fairmount Park Casino opened on April 18, ahead of schedule and under budget, contributing to the company's growth and marking a significant milestone as the first racino in Illinois.
Growth in Key Markets
Illinois and Montana saw revenue growth of 4% and 8% year-over-year respectively. Nebraska and Georgia experienced strong double-digit revenue growth, with Georgia's revenue per day increasing by 59.3% year-over-year.
Strategic Expansion and Acquisition
Completed the integration of recently acquired operations in Louisiana, adding 96 locations and 614 terminals, expected to drive future synergies and performance improvements.
Negative Updates
Revenue Decline in Nevada
Nevada experienced a small revenue decline in the first quarter due to the loss of a key customer from an ownership change, with revenue per day decreasing by 5.3% year-over-year.
CFO Departure
Matt Ellis, the CFO, announced his departure, effective May 9, creating a temporary leadership gap as the company searches for a permanent replacement.
Company Guidance
During the Accel Entertainment Q1 2025 earnings call, several key financial metrics and guidance were provided. The company reported a record quarterly revenue of $344 million, marking a 7% year-over-year increase, alongside an adjusted EBITDA of $50 million, also up by 7%. The growth was driven by stable revenue increases in Illinois and Montana, with 4% and 8% year-over-year growth, respectively. Nebraska and Georgia experienced double-digit growth, while Nevada faced a slight decline. The company completed integration in Louisiana, adding 96 locations and 614 terminals, and announced the opening of Fairmount Park Casino, Illinois's first racino. Looking forward, Accel projects capital expenditures for 2025 to be between $75 million and $80 million, with future normalized annual CapEx expected to return to $40 million to $45 million. The company emphasized its strategy of optimizing locations and leveraging its distributed gaming model to drive growth and improve free cash flow.Accel Entertainment Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Accel Entertainment CFO Resignation Announced
Neutral
Apr 29, 2025
On April 29, 2025, Accel Entertainment announced the resignation of its Chief Financial Officer, Mathew Ellis, effective May 9, 2025, as he pursues other career opportunities. Mark Phelan, the company’s President of U.S. Gaming, will serve as the acting CFO while Accel searches for a permanent replacement. The transition is expected to be smooth, with Phelan’s experience and the company’s strong finance team ensuring continuity in operations. The company is focused on finding a leader who can drive growth and innovation.
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Accel Entertainment Expands Board with New Director
Neutral
Apr 11, 2025
On April 10, 2025, Eden Godsoe, a Class 3 director on the Board of Directors of Accel Entertainment, announced she will not stand for reelection at the company’s 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, with no disagreements cited. Concurrently, Cheryl Kondra was appointed as a Class 2 director, expanding the Board from 8 to 9 members. Mrs. Kondra will serve as Chair of the Audit Committee and a member of the Compensation Committee, receiving prorated compensation and a restricted stock unit grant for her service.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.