Aaon (AAON) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $7.46B
• Dividend Yield: 0.42%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.04M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 62.4
• Beta (1Y): 1.51
• Revenue Growth: 5.39%
• EPS Growth: -34.28%
• Country: US
• Employees: 4,812
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Construction
• EPS (TTM): 0.22
• Shares Outstanding: 81,530,680
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,384,249
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,042,601
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.87
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 5.14
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 17.93
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 28.40
• 1Y Price Target: $102.67
• Price Target Upside: 9.88% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: $96.00 ▲(2.74% Upside)

AAON's overall stock score reflects strong profitability and a stable balance sheet, but is tempered by cash flow challenges and high valuation. The earnings call provided a mixed outlook with significant growth potential in certain areas, but also highlighted operational challenges. Technical indicators suggest moderate bullish momentum, but the stock's high P/E ratio indicates overvaluation concerns.

Positive Factors

Strong Balance Sheet

A robust balance sheet with low leverage provides financial stability and flexibility, supporting long-term growth and resilience against economic downturns.

BasX Brand Growth

Strong growth in BasX sales indicates successful market penetration and demand in the data center sector, contributing to future revenue streams and market expansion.

National Account Strategy Success

The success of the national account strategy reflects effective customer engagement and targeted approaches, enhancing long-term revenue stability and customer loyalty.

Negative Factors

ERP Implementation Challenges

ERP implementation issues have disrupted production and sales, potentially affecting operational efficiency and financial performance until resolved.

AAON Branded Sales Decline

A decline in AAON branded sales due to supply chain issues suggests potential ongoing challenges in meeting demand and maintaining market share.

Gross Margin Contraction

The contraction in gross margin indicates pressure on profitability, which could impact the company's ability to invest in growth and innovation if not addressed.

Aaon Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

AAON, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in engineering, manufacturing, marketing, and selling air conditioning and heating equipment in the United States and Canada. The company operates through three segments: AAON Oklahoma, AAON Coil Products, and BasX. It offers rooftop units, data center cooling solutions, cleanroom systems, chillers, packaged outdoor mechanical rooms, air handling units, makeup air units, energy recovery units, condensing units, geothermal/water-source heat pumps, coils, and controls. The company markets and sells its products to retail, manufacturing, educational, lodging, supermarket, data centers, medical and pharmaceutical, and other commercial industries. It sells its products through a network of independent manufacturer representative organizations and internal sales force. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is based in Tulsa, Oklahoma.

How the Company Makes Money

Aaon generates revenue primarily through the sale of its HVAC products, which includes packaged units, chillers, and air handling systems. The company focuses on providing energy-efficient solutions that not only meet regulatory standards but also appeal to cost-conscious customers seeking long-term savings on energy costs. Key revenue streams include direct sales to contractors and distributors, as well as large-scale projects with commercial clients. Additionally, Aaon benefits from partnerships with construction firms and mechanical contractors that integrate its products into larger building projects. The company also offers aftermarket services and parts, contributing to recurring revenue. Factors such as rising energy efficiency regulations and increased demand for sustainable building practices provide a favorable market environment for Aaon’s growth.

Aaon Financial Statement Overview

Summary

AAON demonstrates strong profitability and a stable balance sheet, with a robust debt-to-equity ratio and strong return on equity. However, challenges in cash flow management, including negative free cash flow and a decline in revenue growth, are concerning.

Income Statement

Aaon shows strong profitability with a consistent gross profit margin around 28-34% and a net profit margin above 9%. However, recent TTM data indicates a decline in revenue growth rate (-15.9%), which is a concern. Despite this, the company maintains healthy EBIT and EBITDA margins, reflecting operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet is robust with a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.42 in the TTM period, indicating low leverage. Return on equity remains strong at 14.9%, showcasing effective use of equity. The equity ratio is solid, reflecting financial stability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals challenges, with negative free cash flow in the TTM period and a low operating cash flow to net income ratio of 0.07. Although there was a significant free cash flow growth rate of 35.1%, the negative free cash flow to net income ratio indicates potential liquidity issues.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.26B	1.20B	1.17B	888.79M	534.52M	514.55M
Gross Profit	360.87M	397.11M	399.02M	237.57M	137.83M	155.85M
EBITDA	227.75M	272.42M	274.79M	162.59M	99.73M	120.99M
Net Income	122.09M	168.56M	177.62M	100.38M	58.76M	79.01M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.40B	1.18B	941.44M	813.90M	650.18M	449.01M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	14.00K	14.00K	287.00K	5.45M	2.86M	79.03M
Total Debt	335.78M	170.96M	50.55M	78.25M	41.58M	202.00K
Total Liabilities	566.67M	350.65M	206.21M	253.19M	184.01M	98.14M
Stockholders Equity	832.75M	824.58M	735.22M	560.71M	466.17M	350.87M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-244.72M	-3.13M	54.60M	7.29M	5.82M	61.01M
Operating Cash Flow	-3.91M	192.53M	158.90M	61.32M	61.18M	128.81M
Investing Cash Flow	-227.17M	-213.07M	-109.31M	-76.21M	-158.72M	-61.27M
Financing Cash Flow	182.83M	18.03M	-46.51M	17.36M	18.73M	-29.63M

Aaon Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 93.44
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AAON, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 93.44 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 85.50, above the 50-day MA of 83.13, and above the 200-day MA of 93.07, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 2.59 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 69.70 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AAON.

Aaon Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TT	73 Outperform	$92.21B	32.88	36.46%	0.87%	10.20%	24.57%
LII	73 Outperform	$18.29B	22.26	92.68%	0.93%	7.92%	29.72%
JCI	71 Outperform	$70.78B	32.12	14.09%	1.37%	-13.10%	40.62%
CARR	68 Neutral	$50.32B	23.59	27.32%	1.45%	-5.24%	-33.37%
AAON	66 Neutral	$7.46B	62.37	15.52%	0.42%	5.39%	-34.28%
CSL	66 Neutral	$14.28B	18.56	38.02%	1.25%	1.37%	5.96%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%

Aaon Corporate Events

AAON Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend Announcement

On August 14, 2025, AAON, Inc. announced that its Board of Directors declared a regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.10 per share, payable on September 26, 2025, to stockholders of record as of September 5, 2025. This announcement reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to providing value to its shareholders and may positively impact its market positioning by reinforcing investor confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (AAON) stock is a Buy with a $110.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aaon stock, see the AAON Stock Forecast page.