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Johnson Controls
(NYSE:JCI)
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$164.00
▲(15.64% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/27/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (notably very strong free cash flow and healthy margins) and a highly positive earnings outlook supported by record backlog and upbeat fiscal 2027 guidance. The main offsets are the sharp TTM revenue decline in the financial statements, only average valuation support (P/E 25.56 and ~1.08% yield), and mixed near-term technical momentum (negative MACD and price below the 20-day average).
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Johnson Controls is converting earnings into substantial cash, giving it capacity to fund capital investment, restructuring, shareholder returns, and growth initiatives internally. The strong conversion also supports earnings quality and provides resilience as the company expands manufacturing and digital capabilities.
Negative Factors
Sharp TTM revenue decline
The sharp trailing revenue decline is a material counterweight to recent organic growth and forward guidance. It raises questions about the durability of reported expansion, the impact of portfolio changes, and whether future margin gains can be sustained if top-line recovery does not continue.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Johnson Controls is converting earnings into substantial cash, giving it capacity to fund capital investment, restructuring, shareholder returns, and growth initiatives internally. The strong conversion also supports earnings quality and provides resilience as the company expands manufacturing and digital capabilities.
Read all positive factors
Johnson Controls Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue across different business segments, indicating which parts of the company are driving growth and which may need strategic adjustments.
Breaks down revenue across different business segments, indicating which parts of the company are driving growth and which may need strategic adjustments.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyJohnson Controls (JCI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$89.35B
Dividend Yield1.08%
Average Volume (3M)3.44M
Price to Earnings (P/E)25.6
Beta (1Y)1.02
Revenue Growth6.81%
EPS Growth70.90%
CountryUS
Employees87,000
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryConstruction Materials
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.69
Shares Outstanding605,741,460
10 Day Avg. Volume3,981,868
30 Day Avg. Volume3,444,880
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio9.58
Price to Book (P/B)5.54
Price to Sales (P/S)3.04
P/FCF Ratio74.26
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.10
Enterprise Value/Revenue5.28
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit10.30
Enterprise Value/Ebitda24.36
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$175.36Price Target Upside23.65% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)6.16
Revenue Forecast (FY)$27.71B
Johnson Controls Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Johnson Controls International plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in engineering, manufacturing, commissioning, and retrofitting building products and systems in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific. The co...
How the Company Makes Money
Johnson Controls primarily makes money by selling building-related equipment and by delivering projects and services that install, operate, and maintain that equipment over its lifecycle. Key revenue streams include: (1) Equipment and systems sale...
Johnson Controls Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 27, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| Next Earnings Date:Feb 03, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was strongly positive, with record orders and backlog, double-digit revenue growth, substantial margin and EPS expansion, strong cash generation, positive fiscal 2027 guidance, and significant opportunities in data centers and other mission-critical markets. The main challenges were customer power and infrastructure constraints, subdued security service growth, continued Middle East uncertainty, inflation-related margin dilution, upfront restructuring expense, and a modestly lower projected free cash flow conversion. Highlights significantly outweighed lowlights.Positive Updates
Strong Fiscal 2026 Full-Year Performance
Johnson Controls exceeded both its initial fiscal 2026 guidance and the raised outlook provided during the year. Full-year organic revenue increased more than 8%, adjusted EPS increased 37%, and adjusted free cash flow conversion was 103%.
Negative Updates
Fiscal 2027 Free Cash Flow Conversion Expected to Decline
Adjusted free cash flow conversion is expected to be approximately 95% in fiscal 2027, below the 103% conversion achieved in fiscal 2026, as capital expenditures and restructuring investment increase.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Fiscal 2026 Full-Year Performance
Johnson Controls exceeded both its initial fiscal 2026 guidance and the raised outlook provided during the year. Full-year organic revenue increased more than 8%, adjusted EPS increased 37%, and adjusted free cash flow conversion was 103%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For fiscal 2027, Johnson Controls expects first-quarter organic revenue growth of 12%-14%, operating leverage of 30%-35%, and adjusted EPS of $1.15-$1.20; for the full year, it expects organic revenue growth of 11%-12%, ahead of the high single-digit growth in its long-term algorithm, operating leverage of greater than 30%, adjusted EPS of $6.15-$6.30, 21% EPS growth from fiscal 2026 at the midpoint, and adjusted free cash flow conversion of approximately 95%. The company expects approximately $900 million of capital expenditures in fiscal 2027, approximately $400 million of restructuring expense over fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2028, and approximately $600 million of gross annualized savings by fiscal 2029; it still anticipates 70%-80% of its $23 billion backlog converting into revenue over the next 12 months, while targeting a double-digit trajectory in 2027 and 2028.Johnson Controls Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
Cash Flow
80
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 18.55B | 23.60B | 22.95B | 22.33B | 20.64B | 23.67B |
| Gross Profit | 9.52B | 8.59B | 8.08B | 7.82B | 7.09B | 8.05B |
| EBITDA | 4.02B | 3.15B | 2.80B | 2.10B | 2.05B | 3.88B |
| Net Income | 2.85B | 3.29B | 1.71B | 1.85B | 1.53B | 1.64B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 40.20B | 37.94B | 42.70B | 42.24B | 42.16B | 41.89B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 618.00M | 379.00M | 606.00M | 828.00M | 2.03B | 1.34B |
| Total Debt | 8.21B | 11.19B | 9.49B | 8.82B | 8.96B | 7.74B |
| Total Liabilities | 26.56B | 24.98B | 25.33B | 24.55B | 24.76B | 23.14B |
| Stockholders Equity | 13.61B | 12.93B | 16.10B | 16.55B | 16.27B | 17.56B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 3.65B | 965.00M | 1.60B | 1.77B | 1.50B | 1.94B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.11B | 1.40B | 2.10B | 2.22B | 1.99B | 2.49B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -468.00M | 6.13B | -221.00M | -1.18B | -693.00M | -1.09B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.78B | -7.39B | -2.08B | -2.17B | -516.00M | -2.13B |
Johnson Controls Technical Analysis
Neutral
141.82
Price Trends
146.62
Positive
145.55
Positive
139.61
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.38
Positive
48.10
Neutral
25.55
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JCI, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 141.82 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 151.41, below the 50-day MA of 146.62, and above the 200-day MA of 139.61, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.38 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.10 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.55 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for JCI.
Johnson Controls Risk Analysis
Johnson Controls disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Johnson Controls reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Johnson Controls Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $56.84B | 14.96 | 16.26% | 1.80% | 6.29% | 18.35% | |
73 Outperform | $89.35B | 25.56 | 26.94% | 1.08% | 6.81% | 70.90% | |
66 Neutral | $14.89B | 17.36 | -406.43% | 1.68% | -0.56% | 15.03% | |
65 Neutral | $13.74B | 19.75 | 41.06% | 1.32% | 1.90% | -2.79% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
54 Neutral | $6.05B | 61.10 | 2.46% | ― | -9.38% | -86.05% | |
51 Neutral | $9.03B | -14.04 | -17.10% | 2.77% | -11.79% | -310.77% |
* Industrials Sector Average
JCI
Johnson Controls
147.50
36.63
33.04%
BLDR
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CRH
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Johnson Controls Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Johnson Controls Announces Leadership Transition in Global Operations
Neutral
Sep 30, 2026
Johnson Controls International plc, a global provider of building technologies and commercial field services, operates across industrial and commercial markets with a focus on optimizing facility performance and efficiency. Its Global Commercial a...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.