YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF) AI Stock Analysis

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YPF Sociedad Anonima

(NYSE:YPF)

76Outperform

YPF's overall stock score of 76 reflects its strong financial recovery, attractive valuation, and operational achievements in shale oil and refining. However, significant financial challenges, including high debt levels and negative cash flow, temper the outlook. Technical indicators suggest short-term strength but caution in the medium term.

Positive Factors

Economic Environment

The lifting of almost all capital controls by the Argentinean government and IMF introduces a more favorable economic environment, which is a strong positive for Argentinean equities.

Operational Performance

YPF's adjusted EBITDA came in 6% above expectations, indicating strong operational performance.

Partnerships

YPF has just announced a project development agreement with Shell for the first phase of its Argentina LNG project, which is expected to enhance its growth prospects.

Negative Factors

Financial Performance

FCFE remained negative due to high capital expenditure on the development of Vaca Muerta, leading to an increase in net debt.

Market Reaction

A negative market reaction is expected due to the miss versus consensus.

Stock Price Volatility

There is concern about strong stock oil price volatility and the fact that YPF is free cash flow negative with no dividends expected in the foreseeable future.

YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$14.51B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)2.71M

Price to Earnings (P/E)6.0

Beta (1Y)0.88

Revenue Growth7.35%

EPS GrowthN/A

CountryUS

Employees21,594

SectorEnergy

Sector Strength45

IndustryOil & Gas Integrated

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-0.04

Shares Outstanding393,261,000

10 Day Avg. Volume2,878,835

30 Day Avg. Volume2,705,565

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.04

Price to Book (P/B)1.25

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio140.08

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$37.50

Price Target Upside4.52% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering3

YPF Sociedad Anonima Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionYPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF) is an integrated energy company based in Argentina, primarily engaged in the exploration, production, refining, and distribution of oil and gas. The company operates across various sectors, including upstream activities such as exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas, and downstream operations like refining, marketing, and distribution of petroleum products. YPF also produces a range of petrochemicals and has a presence in the renewable energy sector.

How the Company Makes MoneyYPF makes money through a diversified revenue model that includes upstream and downstream operations. In the upstream sector, the company generates revenue from the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas, which are sold in domestic and international markets. In the downstream sector, YPF earns income from refining crude oil into various petroleum products, which are then marketed and distributed through its extensive network of service stations across Argentina. Additionally, YPF is involved in the production of petrochemicals, which contribute to its earnings. The company also has strategic partnerships and joint ventures that enhance its operational capabilities and market reach, further supporting its revenue streams.

YPF Sociedad Anonima Financial Statement Overview

Summary

YPF demonstrates strong financial recovery with significant revenue growth and improved profitability margins from 2020 to 2024. The balance sheet shows better leverage management, though high liabilities persist. Cash flow is robust but faces challenges from capital expenditures. Overall, YPF is on a positive trajectory, though caution is warranted due to market conditions and debt levels.

Income Statement

Very Positive

YPF has shown a strong recovery with significant growth in total revenue from $6.6 billion in 2020 to $17.9 billion in 2024. The gross profit margin improved to 27.63% in 2024 from 5.06% in 2020, and net profit margin turned positive at 11.61% after a loss in prior years. EBIT and EBITDA margins also reflect robust profitability. However, revenue growth might slow as recent growth rates are based on recovery from a low base.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The company's debt-to-equity ratio improved from 1.07 in 2020 to 0.83 in 2024, indicating better leverage management. Return on equity (ROE) surged to 17.30%, showcasing enhanced profitability for shareholders. The equity ratio increased to 39.66%, reflecting solid equity backing for assets. Despite improvements, high total liabilities remain a concern for financial stability.

Cash Flow

Positive

The operating cash flow to net income ratio stands strong, indicating good cash generation relative to profits. However, free cash flow growth is modest given the large capital expenditures. The free cash flow to net income ratio suggests limited cash buffer, though operating cash flows have been robust. Cash management appears effective, albeit with some risks tied to capital expenditures.

Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
17.90T	5.39T	2.48T	1.24T	659.60B
	Gross Profit
4.94T	1.88T	602.50B	214.89B	33.39B
	EBIT
1.16T	1.06T	399.20B	148.95B	-38.31B
	EBITDA
3.90T	516.11B	850.73B	424.00B	205.22B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
2.08T	-1.56T	289.06B	-808.00M	-71.02B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.55T	1.39B	193.36B	113.69B	83.55B
	Total Assets
30.29T	25.04B	4.59T	2.39T	1.92T
	Total Debt
10.01T	8.86B	1.36T	812.84B	724.58B
	Net Debt
8.86T	7.73B	1.22T	750.16B	669.96B
	Total Liabilities
18.06T	15.98B	2.72T	1.54T	1.24T
	Stockholders Equity
12.01T	7.22T	1.85T	839.89B	677.23B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
213.43B	240.00M	204.53B	165.21B	94.60B
	Operating Cash Flow
5.60T	5.91B	736.66B	400.01B	209.22B
	Investing Cash Flow
-5.23T	-5.33B	-523.02B	-243.99B	-109.16B
	Financing Cash Flow
-293.66B	278.00M	-157.10B	-150.66B	-121.11B

YPF Sociedad Anonima Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price35.88

Price Trends

50DMA

32.98

Positive

100DMA

36.47

Negative

200DMA

31.95

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

0.79

Negative

RSI

62.41

Neutral

STOCH

94.27

Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For YPF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 35.88 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 32.19, above the 50-day MA of 32.98, and above the 200-day MA of 31.95, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.79 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 94.27 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for YPF.

YPF Sociedad Anonima Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (57)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
EC	79 Outperform	$17.64B	5.21	18.64%	11.53%	-2.26%	-20.04%
YPF	76 Outperform	$14.51B	5.98	22.65%	―	7.35%	―
TTE	76 Outperform	$124.66B	9.79	11.75%	4.65%	-9.86%	-32.59%
E	74 Outperform	$45.56B	16.91	4.78%	4.83%	-2.17%	-25.00%
EQNR	73 Outperform	$64.48B	7.44	18.28%	4.86%	3.96%	-1.69%
PBR	68 Neutral	$74.91B	9.14	11.25%	15.28%	-10.84%	-61.73%
Sector *	57 Neutral	$7.18B	3.26	-3.67%	5.68%	0.47%	-50.25%

* Energy Sector Average

Performance Comparison

YPF

YPF Sociedad Anonima

35.88

12.11

50.95%

Ecopetrol SA

8.60

-1.82

-17.47%

Eni SPA

30.17

-0.43

-1.41%

PBR

Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras

12.02

-1.11

-8.45%

EQNR

Equinor ASA

23.62

-2.46

-9.43%

TTE

TotalEnergies

59.68

-9.61

-13.87%

YPF Sociedad Anonima Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: 18.53%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 07, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call presented a mix of strong operational performance, particularly in shale oil production and refinery utilization, alongside strategic advancements in LNG projects. However, financial challenges such as a net loss, negative cash flow, and increased debt were also highlighted. The sentiment is balanced with notable achievements and significant financial pressures.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Adjusted EBITDA Growth

Adjusted EBITDA reached $1.24 billion, marking a significant sequential growth of 48%.

Record Shale Oil Production

Shale oil production increased by 31% compared to Q1 last year, representing 55% of total oil production.

High Refinery Utilization

Reached a record high refinery utilization rate of 94% with enhanced operational efficiency.

Digital Transformation Initiatives

Inaugurated a real-time intelligence center for the downstream segment to optimize resource utilization.

LNG Project Approvals

Significant progress in LNG projects, including environmental approvals and agreements for future capacity expansion.

Debt Refinancing Success

Issued a 9-year unsecured international bond for $1.1 billion at a yield of 8.5%.

Oil Export Growth

Oil exports grew by 34% inter-annually, reaching 36,000 barrels per day.

Negative Updates

Net Loss Reported

Q1 net result was a loss of $10 million, although an improvement from Q4 last year.

Negative Free Cash Flow

Reported negative free cash flow of $957 million, impacted by mature fields and acquisitions.

Revenue Decline

Revenue of $4.61 billion in Q1 reflected a 3% sequential decline.

Higher Net Debt

Net debt increased to $8.3 billion, with a net leverage ratio of 1.8x.

Mature Fields Impact

Mature fields resulted in an adjusted EBITDA loss of $106 million and a significant cash flow impact.

Company Guidance

During the first quarter of 2025, YPF reported a strong performance with adjusted EBITDA reaching $1.24 billion, marking a 48% sequential growth. This growth was largely attributed to increased profitability from mature fields and improved refining and marketing margins. Shale oil production saw a 31% year-over-year increase, representing 55% of total oil production. YPF also achieved record drilling performance, with a standout achievement of drilling 551 meters per day. The company reported a Q1 revenue of $4.61 billion, a 3% sequential decline but a 7% year-over-year increase, driven by shale activity and higher local fuel prices. YPF's CapEx for Q1 was $1.21 billion, with 75% allocated to unconventional assets, aligning with their annual guidance of $5 billion to $5.2 billion. The company maintained a net debt of $8.3 billion and a net leverage ratio of 1.8x, with plans to reduce it to 1.5x-1.6x by year-end. YPF also made strides in its LNG projects, securing agreements expected to be operational between 2027 and 2028.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.