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XPO
(NYSE:XPO)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$186.00
▼(-3.09% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/06/26
The score is supported primarily by improving profitability and strong free-cash-flow momentum, reinforced by a bullish earnings call with raised margin and cash-flow guidance. Offsetting these positives are elevated leverage for a cyclical trucking business, a technically weakened price trend versus key moving averages, and a high P/E valuation with no dividend support.
Positive Factors
LTL margin expansion
Record LTL profitability indicates that XPO is converting scale, pricing, service quality and operating discipline into stronger earnings. Management’s raised target for at least 200 basis points of full-year operating-ratio improvement suggests margin gains may persist beyond one quarter.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Although leverage has improved from prior years, debt remains high relative to equity for a cyclical transportation company. A softer freight environment could pressure earnings and cash generation, limiting financial flexibility and making continued debt reduction more important.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
LTL margin expansion
Record LTL profitability indicates that XPO is converting scale, pricing, service quality and operating discipline into stronger earnings. Management’s raised target for at least 200 basis points of full-year operating-ratio improvement suggests margin gains may persist beyond one quarter.
Read all positive factors
XPO (XPO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$21.45B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.09M
Price to Earnings (P/E)53.4
Beta (1Y)1.44
Revenue Growth7.03%
EPS Growth16.37%
CountryUS
Employees38,000
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryTrucking
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.43
Shares Outstanding117,086,464
10 Day Avg. Volume961,672
30 Day Avg. Volume1,091,226
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.60
Price to Book (P/B)8.62
Price to Sales (P/S)1.97
P/FCF Ratio48.75
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.30
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.26
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit25.49
Enterprise Value/Ebitda21.67
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$224.69Price Target Upside17.07% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering16
EPS Forecast (FY)5.53
Revenue Forecast (FY)$9.07B
XPO Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
XPO Logistics, Inc. is a prominent provider of freight shipping solutions, operating extensively across the United States, wider North America, various European nations including France and the United Kingdom, and globally. The company's business ...
How the Company Makes Money
XPO makes money mainly by charging customers to transport freight via its less-than-truckload (LTL) network. Revenue is generated on a per-shipment basis, with pricing generally based on factors such as freight class/commodity characteristics, shi...
XPO Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a strongly positive operational and financial trajectory: record revenue, higher adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS, meaningful LTL margin expansion (OR below 80%), accelerating volumes and pricing, measurable productivity gains from proprietary technology, improved free cash flow and reduced leverage. Near-term headwinds include weight-per-shipment seasonality, elevated fuel and wage costs, some restructuring charges in Europe and a tightening driver market, but these are framed as manageable given capacity investments, in-sourcing benefits and technology-driven productivity. On balance, the highlights substantially outweigh the lowlights.Positive Updates
Record company-wide financial results
Total revenue up 13% year-over-year to $2.4 billion; company delivered $434 million of adjusted EBITDA in Q2 (excluding $9 million of real estate gains adjusted EBITDA rose 25% YoY); adjusted diluted EPS reported at $1.70 (adjusted EPS up 56% YoY excluding $0.06 of real estate gains).
Negative Updates
Weight per shipment weakness and seasonality risk
Weight per shipment declined 1.8% YoY in Q2, producing only 1% growth in tonnage per day; management expects weight per shipment to be down YoY in Q3 (albeit less than Q2) and only expects weight per shipment to sustainably inflect positive into late 2026/entering 2027, creating near-term volume mix pressure.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record company-wide financial results
Total revenue up 13% year-over-year to $2.4 billion; company delivered $434 million of adjusted EBITDA in Q2 (excluding $9 million of real estate gains adjusted EBITDA rose 25% YoY); adjusted diluted EPS reported at $1.70 (adjusted EPS up 56% YoY excluding $0.06 of real estate gains).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
XPO guided to continued margin and cash-flow outperformance: they expect third-quarter LTL operating ratio to be below 81% (vs normal seasonality that would push it north of ~82%), full‑year OR improvement of at least 200 basis points (up from a prior 100–150 bps outlook) and a long‑term LTL OR target in the low 70s; tonnage is now expected to be up “a few points” for the full year with Q3 tonnage pacing to mid‑single‑digit growth (July shipments and tonnage were >6% YoY), yield ex‑fuel and revenue per shipment ex‑fuel should improve sequentially in Q3/Q4 (yield ex‑fuel was +4.4% in Q2), weight per shipment should be down less in Q3 and is expected to inflect positive into 2027, and productivity targets remain ~1.5 points (they delivered ~2.5 points in Q2). On cash and capital allocation they now expect to more than double 2026 free cash flow versus 2025, cited $207M of Q2 free cash flow, liquidity of ~ $898M, net leverage improved to 2.1x TTM adj. EBITDA, and year‑to‑date debt paydown of $200M while accelerating share repurchases.XPO Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
56
Neutral
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 8.57B | 8.16B | 8.07B | 7.74B | 7.72B | 7.20B |
| Gross Profit | 1.09B | 979.00M | 915.00M | 770.00M | 730.00M | 525.00M |
| EBITDA | 1.29B | 1.18B | 1.19B | 860.00M | 785.00M | 703.00M |
| Net Income | 404.00M | 316.00M | 387.00M | 189.00M | 666.00M | 336.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 8.33B | 8.19B | 7.71B | 7.49B | 6.27B | 8.72B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 298.00M | 310.00M | 246.00M | 412.00M | 460.00M | 228.00M |
| Total Debt | 3.99B | 4.70B | 4.12B | 4.11B | 3.25B | 4.27B |
| Total Liabilities | 6.37B | 6.33B | 6.11B | 6.23B | 5.26B | 7.58B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.96B | 1.86B | 1.60B | 1.27B | 1.01B | 1.14B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 588.00M | 329.00M | 19.00M | -851.00M | 311.00M | 452.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.09B | 986.00M | 808.00M | 682.00M | 832.00M | 721.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -442.00M | -616.00M | -702.00M | -1.50B | 245.00M | -277.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -565.00M | -339.00M | -226.00M | 761.00M | -862.00M | -2.23B |
XPO Technical Analysis
Negative
191.93
Price Trends
185.64
Negative
197.17
Negative
195.81
Negative
Market Momentum
0.77
Negative
48.26
Neutral
68.13
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XPO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 191.93 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 183.14, above the 50-day MA of 185.64, and below the 200-day MA of 195.81, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.77 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.26 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.13 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for XPO.
XPO Risk Analysis
XPO disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. XPO reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
XPO Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $37.88B | 35.13 | 24.87% | 0.63% | -0.64% | 1.47% | |
68 Neutral | $8.86B | 31.97 | 10.63% | ― | 4.84% | -4.34% | |
65 Neutral | $21.45B | 53.41 | 21.57% | ― | 7.03% | 16.37% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
61 Neutral | $5.32B | 47.42 | 3.68% | 1.30% | 6.25% | -10.92% | |
58 Neutral | $2.84B | 181.44 | 1.26% | 0.38% | 3.70% | -89.58% | |
54 Neutral | $4.74B | -46.90 | -6.84% | ― | 9.53% | 71.38% |
* Industrials Sector Average
XPO
XPO
183.21
57.96
46.28%
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SNDR
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30.35
7.62
33.55%
RXO
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28.75
11.05
62.43%
XPO Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
XPO Reports Ongoing Growth in North American LTL Volumes
Positive
Sep 3, 2026
On September 3, 2026, XPO released operating data showing continued growth in its North American LTL segment, highlighting an improvement in freight volumes. For July 2026, tonnage per day rose 5.8% year over year, driven by a 5.9% increase in shi...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
XPO Highlights Strong Q2 LTL Growth and Strategy
Positive
Jul 30, 2026
On July 30, 2026, XPO released an investor slide deck for use in upcoming presentations, detailing its second-quarter 2026 performance and strategic priorities for its North American LTL business. The company reported consolidated revenue of $2.36...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
XPO appoints Michael Kneeland to strengthen board leadership
Positive
Jul 27, 2026
On July 24, 2026, XPO’s board of directors appointed Michael Kneeland, non-executive chairman and former chief executive of United Rentals, to join the board effective July 27, 2026. The move expands XPO’s board to eight members, seven...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.