Walmart (WMT) AI Stock Analysis

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Walmart

(NYSE:WMT)

Select Model

Outperform 75 (OpenAI - 4o)

Rating:75Outperform

Price Target:

$114.00

▲(11.69% Upside)

Walmart's overall stock score reflects strong financial performance and positive earnings call highlights, particularly in sales growth and strategic initiatives. However, the high valuation and mixed technical indicators temper the outlook. The company's ability to manage cost pressures and leverage technology will be crucial for sustaining growth.

Positive Factors

E-commerce Growth

Walmart's strong e-commerce growth indicates successful digital transformation, enhancing its competitive position against online retailers.

International Expansion

Robust international sales growth reflects Walmart's effective global strategy and potential for further market penetration.

AI and Technology Initiatives

Investing in AI and technology enhances operational efficiency and customer experience, positioning Walmart for future growth.

Negative Factors

Increased Claims Expenses

Rising claims expenses could pressure profit margins, affecting financial stability and requiring careful management.

Tariff-Related Cost Pressures

Tariff-related cost pressures may impact pricing strategies and profit margins, challenging Walmart's cost leadership.

Inventory Management Challenges

Inventory management issues can lead to increased holding costs and reduced operational efficiency, affecting profitability.

Walmart (WMT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$813.79B

Dividend Yield0.89%

Average Volume (3M)16.41M

Price to Earnings (P/E)38.5

Beta (1Y)0.66

Revenue Growth4.23%

EPS Growth38.05%

CountryUS

Employees2,100,000

SectorConsumer Defensive

Sector Strength42

IndustryDiscount Stores

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.68

Shares Outstanding7,972,851,000

10 Day Avg. Volume13,560,462

30 Day Avg. Volume16,408,601

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)N/A

P/FCF RatioN/A

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.04

Enterprise Value/Revenue1.22

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.91

Enterprise Value/Ebitda19.01

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$114.89

Price Target Upside12.56% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering29

Walmart Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionWalmart Inc. is a leading multinational retail corporation based in the United States, operating a chain of hypermarkets, discount department stores, and grocery stores. Founded in 1962 by Sam Walton, Walmart's core business sectors include retail, wholesale, and ecommerce, providing a wide range of products such as groceries, clothing, electronics, home goods, and health and beauty products. The company operates under various formats including Walmart Supercenters, Walmart Discount Stores, Sam's Club membership warehouses, and its online platform, Walmart.com, catering to customers across diverse demographics.

How the Company Makes MoneyWalmart generates revenue primarily through the sale of merchandise in its retail stores and online platforms. The company's revenue model is built on a low-cost leadership strategy, allowing it to offer competitive prices to attract a large customer base. Key revenue streams include sales from Walmart Supercenters, Discount Stores, and Sam's Club, which contribute significantly to its total sales volume. Additionally, Walmart has been expanding its ecommerce segment, which includes online sales and delivery services, contributing to revenue growth. The company also earns income from various services such as financial services, membership fees from Sam's Club, and advertising revenue from its online marketplace. Strategic partnerships with suppliers and logistics companies further enhance its operational efficiency and cost savings, ultimately bolstering its profitability.

Walmart Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

US Net Sales by Category

US Net Sales by Category
Breaks down sales within the U.S. across various product categories, offering insight into consumer preferences and the company’s competitive positioning in key retail sectors.

Chart InsightsWalmart's grocery and health and wellness segments continue to show robust growth, with health and wellness experiencing high-teens increases, bolstered by new pharmacy services. However, general merchandise sales face challenges, with softness in electronics and home products due to consumer pressure and deflation. The earnings call highlights eCommerce profitability and a 50% growth in advertising, indicating strategic shifts towards digital and advertising revenues. Despite tariff challenges, Walmart's operational efficiency and strategic initiatives, like enhanced delivery speed, position it well for sustained growth.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

Walmart Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 21, 2025

(Q2-2026)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Nov 20, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call highlighted strong sales growth, particularly in e-commerce and international markets, and significant advancements in AI and technology. However, profit growth was hindered by increased claims expenses and tariff-related cost pressures. Despite these challenges, the company remains optimistic about its strategic initiatives and future growth prospects.

Q2-2026 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Top-Line Growth

Sales increased by 5.6% in constant currency, with e-commerce sales growing 25% globally. Walmart US and Sam's Club US led with 26% growth in e-commerce sales.

Growth in International Sales

International sales grew by 10.5% in constant currency, led by China, Walmex, and Flipkart.

Advertising and Membership Growth

Global advertising grew by 46%, including Visio. Membership income increased by 15% globally.

Sam's Club US Performance

Sam's Club US delivered a strong comp of 5.9% driven by unit growth.

AI and Technology Initiatives

Introduction of AI roles, with a focus on accelerating AI integration in operations and customer interactions.

Improvement in E-commerce Delivery Speed

Approximately one-third of store deliveries were completed in under three hours, with 20% in thirty minutes or less.

Negative Updates

Lower Than Expected Profit Growth

Adjusted operating income grew only 0.4% in constant currency, below expectations, due to headwinds from general liability claims expenses.

Increased Claims Expenses

Additional $450 million in claims expenses were accrued, resulting in a headwind of 560 basis points to adjusted operating income growth.

Impact of Tariffs on Costs

Continued cost increases due to tariff-related pressures, particularly affecting middle and lower-income households.

Challenges in Inventory Management

Higher costs of imported goods and timing of receipts contributed to a 4% increase in global inventory.

Company Guidance

During Walmart Inc.'s Second Quarter Fiscal Year 2026 earnings call, the company reported strong top-line results, with global sales increasing by 5.6% in constant currency. E-commerce sales grew by 25% globally, and Walmart US and Sam's Club US led with 26% growth, driven by faster delivery speeds. International sales rose by 10.5%, with China, Walmex, and Flipkart contributing significantly. Sam's Club US achieved a 5.9% comp sales increase, while Walmart US saw 4.6% comp sales growth, driven by strong performance in categories like apparel and automotive. The company gained market share both in the US and internationally, with global advertising growth of 46% and membership income up 15%. Despite a headwind of 560 basis points from increased expenses related to general liability claims in the US, adjusted operating income grew by 0.4% in constant currency. Walmart Inc. aims to grow profit faster than sales throughout the fiscal year, with inventory up 3.8% globally and 2.2% in Walmart US. The company highlighted its focus on maintaining low prices amidst tariff-related cost pressures and leveraging artificial intelligence to enhance customer service and operational efficiency.

Walmart Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Walmart's financial performance is strong, with consistent revenue growth, stable profit margins, and solid cash flow generation. The income statement reflects efficient cost management, while the balance sheet shows prudent financial leverage. Cash flows are robust, supporting ongoing operations and investments. However, a slight increase in debt levels requires monitoring.

Income Statement

Very Positive

Walmart's income statement shows strong performance with consistent revenue growth and stable profit margins. The TTM data reflects a gross profit margin of 24.90% and a net profit margin of 3.08%, indicating efficient cost management. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy, demonstrating operational efficiency. The revenue growth rate of 1.18% in the TTM period suggests steady expansion, although slightly lower than previous years.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet is solid with a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.72, indicating prudent financial leverage. The return on equity (ROE) is robust at 24.18%, reflecting effective use of shareholder funds. The equity ratio is stable, suggesting a balanced capital structure. However, the slight increase in debt levels warrants monitoring.

Cash Flow

Positive

Cash flow analysis reveals a positive trajectory with a 12.42% growth in free cash flow in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.37, indicating strong cash generation relative to earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.40 suggests healthy cash flow management. Overall, cash flows are strong, supporting ongoing operations and investments.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	693.15B	680.99B	648.13B	611.29B	572.75B	559.15B
Gross Profit	172.57B	169.23B	157.98B	147.57B	143.75B	138.84B
EBITDA	44.60B	42.01B	36.38B	30.09B	31.35B	34.03B
Net Income	21.34B	19.44B	15.51B	11.68B	13.67B	13.51B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	270.84B	260.82B	252.40B	243.20B	244.86B	252.50B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	9.43B	9.04B	9.87B	8.63B	14.76B	17.74B
Total Debt	65.01B	60.11B	61.32B	58.92B	57.32B	63.25B
Total Liabilities	173.98B	163.13B	161.83B	159.21B	152.97B	164.97B
Stockholders Equity	90.11B	91.01B	83.86B	76.69B	83.25B	80.92B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	15.19B	12.66B	15.12B	11.98B	11.07B	25.81B
Operating Cash Flow	38.44B	36.44B	35.73B	28.84B	24.18B	36.07B
Investing Cash Flow	-22.45B	-21.38B	-21.29B	-17.72B	-6.01B	-11.92B
Financing Cash Flow	-14.87B	-14.82B	-13.41B	-17.04B	-22.83B	-16.12B

Walmart Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Neutral

Last Price102.07

Price Trends

50DMA

100.73

Positive

100DMA

98.63

Positive

200DMA

95.78

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

0.58

Positive

RSI

51.72

Neutral

STOCH

46.91

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For WMT, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 102.07 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 102.73, above the 50-day MA of 100.73, and above the 200-day MA of 95.78, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.58 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.72 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.91 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for WMT.

Walmart Risk Analysis

Walmart disclosed 11 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Walmart reported the most risks in the "Ability to Sell" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Walmart Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (62)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WMT	75 Outperform	$813.79B	38.51	24.46%	0.89%	4.23%	38.05%
TGT	72 Outperform	$40.46B	10.38	26.32%	5.05%	-1.55%	-11.41%
COST	68 Neutral	$405.95B	50.27	30.69%	0.54%	8.17%	9.92%
DG	68 Neutral	$22.06B	18.54	15.60%	2.36%	4.98%	-15.98%
KR	68 Neutral	$43.94B	16.78	24.83%	1.98%	-2.13%	3.22%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
DLTR	53 Neutral	$18.35B	―	20.07%	―	-29.67%	-178.03%

* Consumer Defensive Sector Average

Performance Comparison

WMT

Walmart

102.07

23.73

30.29%

COST

Costco

915.38

46.25

5.32%

Dollar General

100.21

18.10

22.04%

DLTR

Dollar Tree

89.98

20.52

29.54%

Kroger Company

66.30

11.46

20.90%

TGT

Target

89.03

-54.43

-37.94%

Walmart Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings

Walmart Concludes Annual Shareholders’ Meeting with Key Decisions

Neutral

Jun 6, 2025

On June 5, 2025, Walmart Inc. held its Annual Shareholders’ Meeting where shareholders elected all twelve nominated directors for one-year terms. They also approved the ratification of Ernst & Young LLP as independent accountants, the executive compensation plan, and the Walmart Inc. Stock Incentive Plan of 2025. However, several shareholder proposals, including those related to law enforcement information requests, plastic packaging policies, racial equity audits, and health and safety governance, were rejected.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Sep 05, 2025