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Verra Mobility
(NASDAQ:VRRM)
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Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$3.00
▼(-31.97% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/12/26
VRRM’s score is held back most by weak technicals (price below all key moving averages and bearish MACD). Financial performance is moderate due to strong cash generation and a high-margin model, but recent profitability compression and leverage raise risk. Valuation is supportive with a ~13 P/E, while the earnings call adds a mixed signal: operational momentum and cost actions are positives, but lowered guidance, weaker renewal economics, and segment margin compression temper confidence.
Positive Factors
Multi-year customer contracts
Long-term Avis and Hertz renewals provide contractual visibility and help anchor Verra Mobility within major rental-fleet workflows. Although pricing is less favorable, retaining these relationships supports recurring transaction volumes and reinforces the platform’s role in commercial mobility administration.
Negative Factors
Government Solutions margin compression
The expected Government Solutions margin decline shows that major program growth is not translating proportionally into profitability. Lower pricing and subcontractor requirements can reduce the earnings contribution of expanding enforcement activity and weigh on consolidated margins.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Multi-year customer contracts
Long-term Avis and Hertz renewals provide contractual visibility and help anchor Verra Mobility within major rental-fleet workflows. Although pricing is less favorable, retaining these relationships supports recurring transaction volumes and reinforces the platform’s role in commercial mobility administration.
Read all positive factors
Verra Mobility (VRRM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$462.03M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)5.40M
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.1
Beta (1Y)0.20
Revenue Growth11.10%
EPS Growth10.19%
CountryUS
Employees1,895
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustryInformation Technology Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.27
Shares Outstanding151,982,800
10 Day Avg. Volume9,162,132
30 Day Avg. Volume5,403,198
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.07
Price to Book (P/B)12.16
Price to Sales (P/S)3.64
P/FCF Ratio26.06
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$5.67Price Target Upside28.50% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)1.14
Revenue Forecast (FY)$963.35M
Verra Mobility Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Verra Mobility Corporation is a company dedicated to delivering innovative smart mobility technology solutions and associated services across the United States, Australia, Canada, and Europe. Its operations are structured across three distinct seg...
How the Company Makes Money
Verra Mobility makes money by providing technology-enabled services and processing capabilities that reduce administrative burden, improve compliance, and support roadway safety programs.
1) Commercial Services revenue (fleet, rental, and other c...
Verra Mobility Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call conveyed a mixed but constructive tone: the company demonstrated clear operational momentum with strong adjusted EBITDA, cash generation, sizable customer renewals (Avis and Hertz), a major Los Angeles award, and meaningful ARR bookings, while also executing rapid cost actions and accelerating AI and transformation initiatives. Offsetting these positives were a material non-cash impairment (T2), a GAAP loss, and materially less favorable economics in the Avis and Hertz renewals that caused margin compression in Government Solutions and a downward update to full-year guidance. Management emphasized stabilization, disciplined capital allocation, and longer-term value-creation actions.Positive Updates
Government Solutions Revenue Growth
Government solutions service revenue increased 17% year-over-year in Q2; within New York City service revenue grew 36% YoY and service revenue outside NYC grew 8% YoY, driven by accelerated NYC camera installations.
Negative Updates
Significant Non-Cash Impairment and GAAP Loss
GAAP net loss of $48 million in Q2, driven by a $104 million non-cash goodwill and intangible asset impairment charge related to T2 Systems; GAAP diluted EPS loss of $0.32 vs GAAP income of $0.24 per share in prior-year period.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Government Solutions Revenue Growth
Government solutions service revenue increased 17% year-over-year in Q2; within New York City service revenue grew 36% YoY and service revenue outside NYC grew 8% YoY, driven by accelerated NYC camera installations.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management updated 2026 guidance calling for total revenue of $945–965M, adjusted EBITDA of $360–370M (≈38% margin), adjusted EPS of $1.11–1.17, and free cash flow of $105–115M (with higher CapEx for the Los Angeles Metro and school-bus stop‑arm programs); they expect a $30M use of working capital tied to RAC renewals and NYC installation timing, plan roughly $20M of annualized cost takeouts with full run‑rate savings by 2027, and noted Q2 balance‑sheet metrics of ~ $1.0B net debt and 2.4x net leverage with the revolver undrawn and $66M remaining on a $250M repurchase authorization. Segment guidance: Government Solutions expected to deliver high‑end mid‑single‑digit total revenue growth (low‑double‑digit service growth ex‑NYC, high‑single‑digit NYC growth), product revenue roughly flat, and GS margins to compress ~450–500 bps vs. 2025 to land in the low‑20s for the year (Q3 similar to Q1, ramping to mid‑20s in Q4); Commercial Services revenue expected to be up high‑single‑digits with CS margins in the low‑60% range and TSA volumes ~flat to 2025 (a 1–1.5% reduction versus prior TSA assumptions); Parking Solutions revenue is expected up low‑to‑mid single digits with slightly accretive margins.Verra Mobility Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
54
Neutral
Cash Flow
66
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.01B | 979.08M | 879.21M | 817.31M | 741.60M | 550.59M |
| Gross Profit | 967.39M | 948.76M | 860.22M | 773.85M | 694.34M | 515.44M |
| EBITDA | 275.60M | 375.92M | 262.08M | 287.52M | 336.65M | 229.64M |
| Net Income | 44.28M | 136.63M | 31.45M | 57.02M | 92.47M | 41.45M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.62B | 1.65B | 1.61B | 1.79B | 1.76B | 1.84B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 54.80M | 65.27M | 77.56M | 138.63M | 105.20M | 101.28M |
| Total Debt | 1.09B | 38.23M | 1.07B | 1.07B | 1.25B | 1.28B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.39B | 1.35B | 1.35B | 1.37B | 1.53B | 1.58B |
| Stockholders Equity | 223.62M | 292.96M | 265.13M | 421.47M | 231.07M | 259.96M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 96.72M | 136.71M | 152.79M | 148.62M | 170.15M | 168.17M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 214.75M | 255.80M | 223.64M | 206.10M | 218.34M | 193.17M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -117.61M | -118.79M | -69.72M | -58.29M | -48.59M | -475.97M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -197.85M | -150.97M | -211.43M | -117.79M | -164.93M | 268.72M |
Verra Mobility Technical Analysis
Negative
4.41
Price Trends
4.26
Negative
5.61
Negative
11.84
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.33
Positive
19.54
Positive
4.85
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VRRM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.41 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.67, above the 50-day MA of 4.26, and below the 200-day MA of 11.84, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.33 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 19.54 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 4.85 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for VRRM.
Verra Mobility Risk Analysis
Verra Mobility disclosed 40 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Verra Mobility reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Verra Mobility Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $15.45B | 11.42 | 27.55% | 1.41% | 3.41% | 1.68% | |
75 Outperform | $13.44B | 25.31 | 12.68% | ― | 10.89% | 7.95% | |
70 Outperform | $5.37B | 14.94 | 25.89% | 1.13% | -0.78% | 3.90% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
57 Neutral | $4.44B | 28.41 | 6.01% | ― | -5.84% | -60.23% | |
54 Neutral | $462.03M | 11.06 | 14.86% | ― | 11.10% | 10.19% | |
50 Neutral | $245.72M | -1.04 | -30.45% | ― | -10.31% | -2595.28% |
* Technology Sector Average
VRRM
Verra Mobility
3.04
-21.66
-87.69%
CACI
Caci International
608.14
109.36
21.93%
SAIC
Science Applications
128.21
30.24
30.87%
LDOS
Leidos Holdings
123.10
-63.70
-34.10%
CNDT
Conduent
1.58
-1.22
-43.57%
PSN
Parsons
41.55
-41.37
-49.89%
Verra Mobility Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
Verra Mobility Posts Strong Q2 Results Amid Leadership Shift
Negative
Aug 5, 2026
Verra Mobility reported a strong second quarter for the period ended June 30, 2026, with total revenue rising 12% year on year to $263.6 million, driven by double‑digit service revenue growth in Government Solutions and steady gains in Comme...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Verra Mobility, Avis Renew Tolling Partnership Under New Terms
Negative
Jul 29, 2026
On July 28, 2026, Verra Mobility announced it had reached agreement with Avis Budget Group on key commercial terms for a new seven-year tolling and violations services contract, with operational details still being finalized. The redefined relatio...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.